What do you want Pats to do with #3?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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Right, and of course in 2000 the Pats infamously carried 4 QBs all season -- a $100M starter, a veteran backup in Freisz, a developmental 2nd year QB in Michael Bishop, and some 6th rounder who couldn't even start reliably at Michigan.
And the Niners traded a haul for the 3rd pick to draft Trey Lance in 2021, but also kept Jimmy G for two seasons after that and drafted Purdy as Mr. Irrelevant the following season.
Taking multiple shots on finding "The Guy" seems like a solid strategy.
The Vikings just traded with Houston to acquire the #23 pick. What is the consensus of the patriots trading with the Vikings to acquire the #11, 23, and 2025 first rounder for the #3? Is this fair value?
The "value" may be fair, but where's our QB coming from? Over drafting Penix or Nix?
To get in position to draft a QB (Lance), the 49ers traded three first rounders, and a third, to move from 12 to 3. So, the most recent percent suggests that three firsts are in the ballpark, especially if you consider that an extra present year first is generally more valuable than a first two years out.
I don’t think I’d make that trade for the same reason that Minny would, though.
I don't think I would do it. Going back to #11 puts us out of range of the top WRs and OTs. That's the sweet spot for some of the top defensive talent in this draft, which is not our priority. If was back to 6-8 or something, it's more appealing.
But, if you do it, you can pivot to Fields at QB, or, potentially, use #23 to trade back up from #11 to pick whoever falls from the Top 4 QBs. Doesn't have to be only Nix or Penix.
But, if you do it, you can pivot to Fields at QB, or, potentially, use #23 to trade back up from #11 to pick whoever falls from the Top 4 QBs. Doesn't have to be only Nix or Penix.
Value is good, but it runs into the same problem as everything... you need a QB and the odds of getting a better one than you can get at #3 in one of the best QB drafts in a long time are.... low.
NY Giants at #8 could be in play for him.
That's why trading back when you need a QB is dangerous and doesn't happen much. If Maye/Daniels is worth #3 just take them.
I wouldn't do that now, but if they think the QB left at 3 is in the same tier as the Penix/Nix/McCarthy cluster (or whichever group of them they like) then it makes some sense. Draft BPA at 11 and a QB at 23.
Yeah, It sure seems like JJ is going Top 10 at this point. Picks 3 through 5 will be fascinating on draft night
This is why as much as I want to talk myself into Fields (and his low draft capital cost), I can't get there. Many teams outside the top three are QB needy, but haven't jumped on him. No one seems to be interested even as his cost is reportedly falling. Part of that may be the fact that he won't be cheap after next year and a rookie QB is paramount in roster building, too.
It's enticing to turn one top three pick into three firsts, but what does it benefit you if the QB situation is solved, or the probability of the QB target being available is insanely low? It doesn't.
I actually think in this scenario it might be Maye that drops. The cognoscenti are souring on him.
I respect the analysis but generally aren't we (not you specifically) over- thinking this issue? My premise is (1) we need a 1st tier quarterback; (2) the likelihood of finding one in the lower tiers is slightly better than my Powerball odds; (3) the Pats will red shirt whoever they draft - that's what Brissett is there for, and he's decent if that's your goal; and (4) sure, with multiple choices, we stand a better chance of improving a number of other positions, but the greater likelihood is that we'll improve to 6-11 or thereabouts with Brissett, which is draft Hell when you're looking to fill that position. Unless Mayo and Wolf conclude that (say) Washington is sure to draft Daniels, and Maye simply is overrated, there's no rationale for trading out of #3.
Sure, in a couple of years if Maye is treading water and the hypothetical draft returns look like all-Pros, you're going to get recriminations, but they come with the job. Otherwise, you wind up with Bloom Syndrome, where you're afraid to take major steps because of fear of failure. (Sorry for the pile-on, Chaim)
Edit: While writing this magnum opus, someone else noted that Maye seems to be dropping generally, so the alternate scenario is more of a possibility.
View: https://twitter.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1768657842699894940?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
@The33rdTeamFB
This is Josh McCown coaching Drake Maye in high school. Josh McCown is currently the quarterbacks coach of the Vikings
@The33rdTeamFB
This is Josh McCown coaching Drake Maye in high school. Josh McCown is currently the quarterbacks coach of the Vikings
While the FA LT options weren't great, losing out on all of them (including our own) means the Pats have a massive hole on the left side of the line. They pretty much have to use the second rounder on an LT now at a minimum, or use that 2nd rounder and additional draft capital to move up into the later first to grab that LT. That's not great for a team with so many holes. I think our second and third rounder gets us a pick around #20 in the first round, looking at one draft value calculator. That means we aren't drafting a WR until the 4th. That's not good.
If they're trying to get up in the draft to get a QB, trading your all world WR seems counter productive.
Breer says Pats don't want to trade out of #3.
How Aaron Donald Knew His Unparalleled NFL Career Was Complete - Sports Illustrated
How Aaron Donald Knew His Unparalleled NFL Career Was Complete - Sports Illustrated
The Vikings stuff is interesting. LAC are probably the most logical partner and that rumor mill is starting, but then ARZ could swap with the NYG, still get a great WR prospect and allow NYG to draft JJ. Means although Minn declared it's intentions to trade up early, a trade might not happen til LAC are on the clock.
In any case, I think JJ doesn't get past 6.
Some of the more accurate draft analysts of the last few years have predicted McCarthy lands with the Vikings. Obviously he can go anywhere, but I think Minnesota as a landing spot seems fair.
If they move up from 11. I don't think there is any way they are getting him there. Or was this implied?
Could be there, but a lot of people have them moving up for him, hence the trade for 23.
This was a response to the idea that MIN moves up to 3 for a QB who isn't JJ, then the Patriots with 11 get McCarthy... seems unlikely to me that 11 moves to 3, then NYG pass on a QB and no other teams move up to 4, 5 (a pick everyone says is very for sale), 7,8,9, 10.
Yeah, I think if the Pats did that they would take an OT or WR with 11. Then maybe take Penix at 23.
Honesly my thought is that if they did that (I don't think they will) they'd punt QB until 68 or later and stock up with as many blue chip premium position players. You only trade out of 3 if you don't think there is a future franchise QB, and spending firsts on QBs you don't think have that ceiling is a waste, you're just getting Pickett/Ridder types.
I think the assumption is that Minnesota moving up to 11 was to package that pick with their #23 (and more) to move up to #3 and take Maye, due to the McCown connection. Josh McCown was Drake Maye's assistant high school coach (where he played with McCown's sons, one of whom played QB at Colorado and is now at UTSA and the other is at Lamar University) and is now the QB's coach in Minnesota.
Minnesota didn't move up to 11. That's their pick. They acquired the 23rd. I get them wanting to move up with 23. I was just questioning Minnesota taking JJ at 11. I don't see him lasting that long anyway.
I'm sorry again, too many threads today. Yes, they picked up the 23 to go with the 11, and folks believe it's to position themselves to go up and get Maye (or I guess another QB if they can).
I made the mistake of hearing Felger today, and he was saying the safe move for Mayo/Wolfe is for the Pats to go tackle, because if you miss on a tackle, no big deal, but if you miss on a QB, everyone loses their jobs.
I almost drove my car off the road. If the Pats trade away the #3 and Maye/Daniels end up in Minnesota and throwing balls to Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson behind one of the best offensive lines in football and Aaron Jones now in their backfield, Felger will lose his fucking mind as we watch some tackle for the Pats blocking his way to a 6-11 record.
The reason Felger is wrong is because if you pass on a QB and that QB becomes a star, then you lose your job even if the tackle becomes a star.
Yep. I think owners would be much more forgiving if a QB doesn't develop vs. skipping the next star.
Felger bases his opinion on what’s good for his radio show. The Patriots trading down instead of taking a QB generates more talking points for him.
If Brady had just retired after 2018, I think Belichick would have gotten a second chance a picking another QB. When you make the decision to move away from Brady (by not giving him a contract extension), you better be right with the next QB.
I think you only really get busted for drafting a qb is if you trade a boatload of picks to get him and if you reach beyond what the consensus view is. Most QBs don’t work out, everyone knows that. Drafting Mac at 15 was a perfectly defendable decision. Had they traded up to the back half of the top 10 to get him, that would have been more questionable. Had they picked him #3, that would have stung a lot.
Yeah I think that anyone who blames Belichick's demise on the drafting of Mac is oversimplifying to absurdity. Not having a real plan for life post goat, check. But taking a consensus first rounder in the middle of the first round is not a career killer. Hell TV had a green room cam on the guy by pick 10.
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This. What happened with Mac - some on the player himself, some on the "coaching" he received, some on the lack of weapons - certainly didn't help BB's cause. But there's plenty of dumb shit that led to his demise in N.E. The Patricia fiasco. Terrible, big-footing draft decisions like N'Keal, Strange, Tyquan, JoeJuan. Assuming - separate from Mac - that installing Matty P at OC was a good idea, and wanting to run that back despite the catastrophe. The lack of motivation for developing/acquiring elite weapons during the valuable rookie QB window, the lack of foresight in terms of how long Brady could play at a high level, the apparently pervasive notion in the building that all you really need is an average QB to compete for a championship. I mean, it's a lot of stuff.
Also a lot - the amazing, unprecedented and genius-level work BB brought to game planning and culture and, for awhile, roster construction. Given the sustained success over 20 years, I'll take the good, the bad and the Harry all day long.
Agreed. Anyone who, back in 2000, who wouldn't have taken the subsequent 23 years, even with all its messes, is crazy. It was, simply put, the greatest run any franchise has ever had in NFL history. Of course it had warts. Some significant ones. But man did they WIN. And they won with an incredibly high entertainment value too.
Hopefully all four of them just kill it at their Pro Days; whatever the Pats decide to do I‘d like them to have the maximum number of options.
The only reason to trade down from the #3 spot is if you don't have faith that any of the available QBs is a true franchise-changer. If you DO have that kind of faith in Daniels, Maye or whoever's left at #3, you must take him. Because those type of quarterbacks rarely come along, and if you opt instead to build out the rest of your roster, chances are you will not have a top 3 draft pick again for a long time, no matter who your quarterback is.
If you can get a franchise QB, you build the roster around the QB, you don't hope for a QB who fits your roster.
If you can get a franchise QB, you build the roster around the QB, you don't hope for a QB who fits your roster.
The Athletic posted another beat writer mock and this one had the Patriots trading down with the Vikings.
After WIlson and Daniels went #1 and #2, the Pats traded #3 to the Vikings for #11, #23, a 2025 1st, and a 2026 2nd.
https://theathletic.com/5356654/2024/03/21/nfl-mock-beat-draft-vikings-broncos-mccarthy/
Picks #3 to #10: Maye (QB), MHJ (WR), Nabers (WR), Odunze (WR), Alt (T), McCarthy (QB), Turner (Edge), Bowers (TE).
At #11, the Pats took T Olu Fashanu. At #23, they took Adonai Mitchell.
The haul in picks is not bad - picking up an 2025 1st and 2026 2nd. But unless they really don't like Maye or McCarthy I don't think trading that far down makes sense. I guess if the plan is to tread water for a year, sign Barmore, and stockpile assets, it could work. But I don;t think you can trade out of taking a QB unless you really want no part of the available options.
After WIlson and Daniels went #1 and #2, the Pats traded #3 to the Vikings for #11, #23, a 2025 1st, and a 2026 2nd.
https://theathletic.com/5356654/2024/03/21/nfl-mock-beat-draft-vikings-broncos-mccarthy/
Picks #3 to #10: Maye (QB), MHJ (WR), Nabers (WR), Odunze (WR), Alt (T), McCarthy (QB), Turner (Edge), Bowers (TE).
At #11, the Pats took T Olu Fashanu. At #23, they took Adonai Mitchell.
The haul in picks is not bad - picking up an 2025 1st and 2026 2nd. But unless they really don't like Maye or McCarthy I don't think trading that far down makes sense. I guess if the plan is to tread water for a year, sign Barmore, and stockpile assets, it could work. But I don;t think you can trade out of taking a QB unless you really want no part of the available options.
It is oversimplifying, but at the same time, if Mac was better, they don't go 4-13 last year (and probably better in 2022 as well) and Belichick may very well still be here. You're right that the pick wasn't (widely) criticized at the time. That doesn't mean Mac's failure didn't cost Bill his job.
If it were for real, I would take that haul that Minnesota is offering, but only IF the Pats feel that they cant develop Maye/Daniels into a franchise QB.
Assuming the Pats take a QB, Arizona and the Chargers are in both in a great spot, to trade with whoever wants to draft McCarthy. They have their QB in place and can accept a trade like that to rebuild quickly. I did one of those mock drafts as the chargers and got trade offers with multiple first/second rounders from the Vikings, Broncos and Giants.
Assuming the Pats take a QB, Arizona and the Chargers are in both in a great spot, to trade with whoever wants to draft McCarthy. They have their QB in place and can accept a trade like that to rebuild quickly. I did one of those mock drafts as the chargers and got trade offers with multiple first/second rounders from the Vikings, Broncos and Giants.
Whenever I read though the various opinions in this thread, I fell like Coach in that episode of "Cheers" where he keeps changing his mind every time he asks another bar patron about how the Pats did in the previous day's draft.