What do you want Pats to do with #3?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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If Maye is there at #3 I hope we double dip WR at 34 and 68 or at least 34 and 103. Punt T until next season when I would still expect to be drafting no worse than middle of the 1st. Let Maye sit the season behind Brissett and develop the WRs you draft so they are ready to contribute heavily in 2025 along with Maye. I think at 34 you have a decent shot at AD Mitchell or Keon Coleman who have #1 talent but will need at least a year of development. At 68 I'd be targeting Pearsall or Roman Wilson and 103 Johnny Wilson or Jermaine Burton.
I've only been half paying attention to the draft talk lately. Can someone point me to an explanation as to how a high profile guy like McCarthy goes from maybe the 6th best QB on the board three months ago to being in play for #3?
Cause invariably the "silly season" always leads to way too much analysis and people looking for stuff to write/opine on keep digging and digging... plus every so often a QB from lower down does payoff... so everyone wants to be remembered as being "right" on that guy (no one will remember all the ones you get wrong since the draft is a bit of a crapshoot anyways)... it's why you have stupidity like Polian (or someone from the Colts org) opining about how they "for realz" had a super high 1st round on Brady... several years after the fact...
It’s also a situation where a lot of media types are catching up on a guy who didn’t have the big numbers but who a lot of nfl scouts believe (correctly imo) can play. It’s easy to know maye has potential. You have to actually watch the film to realize mccarthy does too.
(vast majority of Michigan fans would have said months ago that he was worth a look. Why? Bc we watched him play.)
Jim Harbaugh also says he's the #1 QB in the draft, which serves own ego as his coach and also hopes it pushes him in the Top 4 picks so he can draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
I'd rather go OT at 34 if Suamataia or Guyton is there. every year is loaded with WR talent now, OT much harder to find
Because he was 3rd QB on many teams board pre-season and never moved. Brugler has him QB 4 but also had him player #19 pre-season and all through has said he heard NFL teams were really high on him
One thing is draft people and non. So Penix... None of the people who primarily cover the draft really moved him off Texas, that was non-draft people who hadn't even looked at the draft prospects.
One of the problems with February/March risers is.... Yes it's lying season... But it's also the first time coaches are really digging in on these guys, and sometimes coaches and scouts see things very differently, and how much influence they have varies by organization. So it could be that say Mccarthy is really seen league wide as a 8-15 guy, and someone is trying to drum up trade interest, or push him up to drop someone else.... Or it could be that a couple coaches (say Daboll and O'Connell, love him and are pushing the GM hard to go get him.
It’s also the first time NFL coaches have to get these kids in a room and have them walk through their thought process, etc.
Better Breer shared this story about Caleb Williams (I know, he’s basically been consensus #1 all along but still)
There was a play in one of US s games this season where Caleb chose to run when he had a receiver wide open. Breer mentioned that, f you just watched the film, you might sing Williams for making that choice trying to make a play with his feet.
Apparently, Williams as asked about this play and he said something like “it was 3rd and 9. I saw him open at 5 yards but saw a defender close enough that I thought he was going to end up short if I threw the ball, so I decided to run.”
That context, according to Breer, makes a huge difference sometimes with these risers.
Better Breer shared this story about Caleb Williams (I know, he’s basically been consensus #1 all along but still)
There was a play in one of US s games this season where Caleb chose to run when he had a receiver wide open. Breer mentioned that, f you just watched the film, you might sing Williams for making that choice trying to make a play with his feet.
Apparently, Williams as asked about this play and he said something like “it was 3rd and 9. I saw him open at 5 yards but saw a defender close enough that I thought he was going to end up short if I threw the ball, so I decided to run.”
That context, according to Breer, makes a huge difference sometimes with these risers.
That's not really true though. Typically if you look at the drafts from 2020-2023 you rarely have more than 1-3 WR that become impact players taken after round 1. This draft has the potential for 4-6+ to be impact players after the 4-5 expected to be taken in the first. Obviously if there is a run at WR and the value isn't there they shouldn't reach but I think you will likely be getting a rd 1 WR in any of the previous drafts in early to mid rd 2.
A lot of people who cover the draft year round have been talking about McCarthy going high since the fall and have mentioned that NFL scouts love him
Casual fans and people who only cover the draft in march/April are catching up to what’s been pretty common chatter for a long time
We have a 1st next year to use on a WR, and generally there are more elite WR prospects round 1.
But also...there is plenty of disagreements about which WRs are going to be impact in the 2nd or 3rd. I don't think there is the same with OT. You could get a guy at 68 at WR who maybe you had as your top WR at 34, tackle it seems like the "potential good LT starter" train ends no later than mid to late 30s, and that is incredibly late, usually starting LT decent prospects are gone top 12-15.
Edit- the ideal move might actually be to move up from 68 and get a other 2nd and grab a WR and OT in the 2nd. Though I also think there is a very good chance that you don't have to decide because Suamaitaia and Guyton are gone
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I've read a lot of people who cover the draft extremely closely, all year round, who have watched every spec of game film there is on J.J. McCarthy, who believe his being a top 5 pick and anywhere ABOVE Drake Maye is ridiculous. Lots of different perspectives on countless prospects, who knows how it'll pan out.
If the Patriots draft Keon Coleman gives off (to me anyway) major N'Keal vibes. I really hope they go after more athletic guys who can actually separate, rather than Coleman types.
If the Patriots draft Keon Coleman gives off (to me anyway) major N'Keal vibes. I really hope they go after more athletic guys who can actually separate, rather than Coleman types.
If a team uses Keon like N'keal was used as a contested catch boundary receiver he'll probably fail like N'keal did. The analysts I trust seem to think Keon could thrive as a big slot. He had the best gauntlet drill at the combine which is what Puka excelled in last year as well. Keon has impressive hands and maintains his speed through the catch well. The lack of separation is a legit concern but also why he should be available late 1st early 2nd. That said I won't be surprised if his counterpart Johnny Wilson ends up being a better pro and can prob be had a round or two later.
Honestly I’m not a fan of either Daniels or JJM, so if those are the options at #3 I’m hoping that the Patriots make a deal with Minnesota or whoever to acquire a passel of picks.
On the latest Moving the Sticks podcast, Daniel Jeremiah discussed a "theory that's out there," which is that in 2018 Eliot Wolf was the Asst GM for the Browns under John Dorsey, and in that draft the Browns chose Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen. The point conveyed to Jeremiah was that if Wolf presumably didn't like Josh Allen, then he's probably not going to like Drake Maye, thus the Pats will draft McCarthy.
I guess it didn't occur to Jeremiah that maybe Wolf did like Allen but was overruled ... or didn't like Allen but now regrets passing on him, thus they'll draft Maye. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I guess it didn't occur to Jeremiah that maybe Wolf did like Allen but was overruled ... or didn't like Allen but now regrets passing on him, thus they'll draft Maye. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Or that Drake Maye and Josh Allen are not exact clones of each other and it is actually possible to like one and not the other.
Also you could like both and just have liked Baker better, either in abstract or for your particular situation.
I think my biggest hesitation to McCarthy is if he becomes a Patriot, he will be forever compared to TB. Not many could excel under that spot light.
My biggest hesitation to McCarthy becoming a Patriot is that he's got little potential to be a creative, game-changing player and so the team will be spinning its wheels on offense (competing against the likes of Mahomes, Josh Allen, Burrow, Lamar) with a "solid" QB, instead of taking a swing on the guy with significantly higher upside in Drake Maye. It's a ludicrously timid move that one should never make at #3 overall. Please, please NO.
edit - clarity and typos.
edit - clarity and typos.
If McCarthy has a huge arm (and apparently he does), and is an elite athlete (and apparently he is), then isn't his ceiling....pretty damned high?
I want Maye over him, but I don't think McCarthy's ceiling is any sort of "solid" game manager or anything.
I want Maye over him, but I don't think McCarthy's ceiling is any sort of "solid" game manager or anything.
Not sure why you're focusing on "ceiling" here.
Unless the Pats suddenly get some OL studs and WR playemakers, no QB is going to get anywhere close to their ceiling on this team.
Unless the Pats suddenly get some OL studs and WR playemakers, no QB is going to get anywhere close to their ceiling on this team.
I don't think anyone thinks he has a huge arm. Solid one, but he gets his velocity via on platform throws where he uses everything he's got, his overall arm strength is better than Daniels, but not top of the class. He seems to be a good athlete, but not an elite one, and he's a good runner but not a great one. He's similar to Maye and/or Williams as a runner, below Daniels (who is himself below Lamar for example). I think people got fooled on the arm by the combine velocity number, nobody before or since thought he had a huge arm. Good one... sure.
McCarthy most evaluators I have seen think he's a guy who can be a B/B+ in a lot of things, and that could be a really good QB, but he's not generally seen as having any elite tool. Solid size, but not top end (he's not Daniels, but he's not Maye either, he's probably going to sit in the 215 are, maybe the 220 range for actual play weight once he fills out, he was playing below 200 this year.
This is wha tI've heard as well. That JJ's arm strength, while certainly better than Mac's (see also: my 12-year-old son's), was misleadingly "strong" b/c, when measured at the combine, it was a stop and put ALL your weight into it - the kind of throw that hardly ever happens in an actual, ya know, football game. He just seems to me to be a potentially good, solid QB, which is NOT what you take at #3 overall. It's not the kind of big swing DIFFERENCE MAKER that merits that kind of selection.
If the Patriots land on this guy, I hope I'm wrong, but it really worries me that a game-manager type is what this new administration thinks will get the team where we all want it to go. What a disaster that kind of pick would be. Arguably worse than taking a big swing with Maye/Daniels, two guys who, at least, have the upside that warrants a big swing, even if it doesn't ultimately work out.
Well if Wolf can’t bring in competent OL and a dynamic WR or two in the next 3 years, all discussion of ceiling and floor is moot since the team will be cleaning house and trying again in 2027 regardless of which QB is on the roster
You can’t just draft a QB and shrug your shoulders thinking “well this guy is never going to develop because I’m not going to build a team around him, so it doesn’t matter which guy I take or who has the best upside”
I mean if New England were drafting #2, this would be completely reasonable. They're not.
Right. I’d love for that to be the case, but it’s entirely possible that Maye is not available, so the Pats really need to have their alternative plan set up and thoroughly researched.
Wouldn't that be.... more reason to focus on ceiling? Very few players hit their ceiling, so the appeal of higher ceiling players is they can be much better without hitting their full ceiling.
But beyond that... look around the league, you succeed one of two ways....
1. You have an elite QB.... you're a contender as long as you have that QB, and can do a lot more with less at other positions.
2. You build a freakshow great roster with a competent and cheap QB. That gives you a window, though a shorter one.
If you can't being the great roster.... you need the highest ceiling QB you can get. If you're really lucky.... you get the high ceiling QB AND build out the roster while he's cheap. That gives you a window while he's still improving, then when you have to pay him he's developed hopefully into the kind of elite talent who can do more with less.
The answer here is unless internally there are massive red flags on either or both of Maye or Daniels they are going to role the dice on whoever is there at #3.
There’s enough to get excited about with both of them at an incredibly critical position that it’s a good use of the third pick even if they miss.
The alternative is QB purgatory of guys like Jacoby Brissett who while capable of starting an NFL game aren’t going to take you to conference championship games.
It used to be missing on a top QB at the top of the draft was terrible because teams held onto guys way too long.
Now these guys are all basically on the Zach Wilson/Mac Jones leash of 2-3 seasons tops.
It should be noted that approach number 2 has yielded way fewer titles than approach number 1 in the past 25 years. Even if you build the Eagles or the 49ers and have a shit ton of talent all over, you'll still have to get past Patrick Mahomes and then good luck.
Because he went to Michigan? I think that they went to the same school will be compared, but the player?
I mean Brady went 199 after all. This guy is gonna go higher than that.
The other problem is that having an expensive elite QB isn't such a drag on roster construction that some well-run team with that kind of QB won't also be able to amass and retain a shit ton of talent. And so you not only have to get past Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady but you have to score on a Top 5 defense, defend a HoF tight end, etc etc.
Approach #2 isn't really a strategic alternative, its just a coping mechanism if you don't happen to have an elite QB.
Option #2 is riskier and certainly far less proven, but I don't think that it's a given that it's impossible (or a coping mechanism). The Niners keep making it to Super Bowls doing this, as do the Eagles. If you look at the Super Bowl participants and champions of the last 20 years, there are plenty of guys on that list who are not elite QBs. Eli Manning has two rings and a .500 record and 60% career completion percentage.
I don't want to go that route, but we dismiss it as crazy talk too easily IMO.
I don't think its impossible. But its only something you embrace if you haven't been able to land that elite QB and the chances of it working are really low. Plenty of teams have made, or even won, Super Bowls without an elite QB but the denominator for that category is huge.
Here's Lazar's write-up on McCarthy: Film Review: Analyzing QB J.J. McCarthy's Fit With the Patriots
Areas of concern:
Strengths:
Areas of concern:
Yeah, that's going to be the case no matter who is the Pats QB. And as it should be.
I posted a while back about the possibility that Tom Brady "ruined" us as Pats fans, because we will forever compare any QB to him, which is just unfair to whichever QB that is.
The Pats could end up with a perfectly good QB but he won't measure up to the GOAT and it will make it seem like he isn't as good as maybe he is.
The Pats could end up with a perfectly good QB but he won't measure up to the GOAT and it will make it seem like he isn't as good as maybe he is.
I won't. Because you can't.
You compared Mac to Brady? God Bless You.
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Well, I'm sure glad I'm not one of them. Expecting Mac to be good, okay. But the Greatest?
Is it, though? Seems to me that having so much of your resources tied up in a single player is a riskier proposition. Especially as the guaranteed contracts increase, if you invest so much in one player and he's injured or a bust, you really are in a pickle.
I'm not a Mac Jones fan at all, but I believe there is an alternative universe where the Patriots make some better roster and coaching decisions and the Patriots would have been a playoff team by now.
#2 is much riskier.... you need to hit on like 10 positions and you still need to hit the QB to an extent, and you're far more vulnerable to contract issues... and you usually lose in the playoffs to a team who hit on the elite QB and did a good job on support. Your ceiling is capped and you need to consistently be able to get acceptable QB play for cheap, which is tough in the NFL.
Mac is a great example. He was a shot at #2 approach... they made the playoffs by spending ton of money on supporting cast... then it all fell apart quickly because they couldn't keep up the support in part because they decided not to make their guard the highest paid in the league. If they had... they would have had to reduce spending elsewhere. TB just did it last year, let's see how they look now that Baker is getting paid. SEA looked like they were going that way.... paid Geno... struggled. And that is low end contracts for starting QBs.
The QB in your example is paid peanuts while you determine whether he is any good.
Reading the posts in this thread and all the analyses included, it prompted me to look for scouting reports on Brady back in 2000. The following article more or less summarizes the gamut of opinions on the greatest NFL quarterback who's ever played.
https://theathletic.com/1235430/2019/09/25/the-mcginn-files-i-dont-like-him-smart-guy-thats-it-what-they-said-about-tom-brady-before-the-2000-draft/?source=twittersf&access_token=15412535&redirected=1
Here are a few soundbites:
https://theathletic.com/1235430/2019/09/25/the-mcginn-files-i-dont-like-him-smart-guy-thats-it-what-they-said-about-tom-brady-before-the-2000-draft/?source=twittersf&access_token=15412535&redirected=1
Here are a few soundbites:
I know the game has changed a ton since Brady was drafted. But it's a helpful reminder, to me at least, to take a deep breath when my head is exploding because I'm trying first to figure out which QB I'd like and which one I hope with all my heart and soul my team drafts. I still think Drake Maye, if he's there at #3, is the QB I'd prefer the Pats to take. But, if it turns out to be JJM or even Nix, I'm not going to give up hope.