Really hope the Penix stuff is just smoke and there’s nothing to it. I cant imagine a worse NFL fit for him given the current roster construction. Would be better to punt the QB decision to next year than to take him
This, exactly!That's pretty funny. How is Penix remotely like Tatum? I would say Maye is closer to being their Tatum if Washington is that high on Daniels and picks him.
Pick Maye #3. Turns out to be the best of the three(wishful thinking).
Patriots - "It's the guy we wanted all along. We would have taken him first".
This is how I read it as well. And good on them for doing so. Plus, I think that after two decades of not being able to write about a Patriots draft is this way, local media especially is giddy with the chance to ferret out speculation.They are really working all reporters on every beat at every corner trying to drive up the price at 1,3. I get it! I respect the hustle.
Agreed. He'll get smoked in this offense. Poor line play (likely) and very limited weapons, especially at the throws he excels at making.Really hope the Penix stuff is just smoke and there’s nothing to it. I cant imagine a worse NFL fit for him given the current roster construction. Would be better to punt the QB decision to next year than to take him
I guess we can agree to disagree.I see it the opposite. The biggest risk with a QB is the opportunity cost - you're married for 2-3 years and you probably get fired if it doesn't work out. If you trade back and build a war chest, you might buy time. I don't think drafting a QB high is ever the "conservative approach."
Two / three years out I don't think anyone cares any more whether your decision was consensus or not. It's a results business.
What people should do and what people actually do are often different based on the situation they are placed in.Shouldn't they, though, if they have faith in their evaluations?
Why is that a more obvious way to mess up than taking the QB and he stinks? That’s just as obvious, isn’t it? (And more likely, as most QBs fail)I guess we can agree to disagree.
The single most obvious way for the FO to mess up is to trade back, have the #3 pick end up being a stud QB, and getting a worse QB later in the draft. These things can sometimes declare themselves pretty quickly, often (though not always) in year 1. Getting extra picks is great, but trading out of a good QB for a mediocre or bad one will outweigh everything.
I'd like a FO with strength in their convictions as well, I just think it's a much riskier move to trade out and expect most in this situation to err on the side of caution/consensus. I guess time will tell.
Of course it's entirely possible their evals and the consensus are the same.
The Giants feel like a team that needs more than the Patriots. They also don't feel like a team that really has enough to offer. I don't think that package is truly enough. If you put any stock in Jimmy Johnson's weighted draft pick chart (caveat: it's over 30 years old), it isn't enough.The Giants feel like a team that can be swindled. I really hope Wolf can convince them to do something stupid for Maye. #6, #47 and the Giants' #1 and #3 next season?
Let's look at 2 negative scenarios.Why is that a more obvious way to mess up than taking the QB and he stinks? That’s just as obvious, isn’t it? (And more likely, as most QBs fail)
I don't put much stock in the JJ chart but that trade would be more than enough. #3 is 2200 and #6 and #47 are 2030. Even discounting the future heavily a 2025 first will more than make up that difference.The Giants feel like a team that needs more than the Patriots. They also don't feel like a team that really has enough to offer. I don't think that package is truly enough. If you put any stock in Jimmy Johnson's weighted draft pick chart (caveat: it's over 30 years old), it isn't enough.
Edit: granted, we don't know where their Rd1 pick is next year.
Giants are one of those teams where the GM and coach might be in trouble with another bad year... a QB resets their own jobs, which always makes GMs more willing to deal. What's a future 3rd or a pick 2 years out if you might be gone in 9 monthsThe Giants feel like a team that can be swindled. I really hope Wolf can convince them to do something stupid for Maye. #6, #47 and the Giants' #1 and #3 next season?
My bad, I was looking at the wrong picks. You are correct.I don't put much stock in the JJ chart but that trade would be more than enough. #3 is 2200 and #6 and #47 are 2030. Even discounting the future heavily a 2025 first will more than make up that difference.
Everyone would move for the right offer.
The off chance that the Pats take JJM at 3, right? Or I guess the Pats moving down twice? But they're both unlikely.The article leading to this tweet says they are looking at #3 and #4. I don't see a timeline where Maye is available at #4.
View: https://twitter.com/jordanraanan/status/1782787239073751438?s=46&t=WQi6iqIXzyd2nQDr6B-03Q
I feel 100% confident McShay is full of shit. No way you call DOZENs of teams and get a consensus on just about anything.I wouldn't take Todd McShay as gospel by any means but he was pretty emphatic about this position.
View: https://twitter.com/DMRussini/status/1782795722431078708
View: https://twitter.com/JPFinlayNBCS/status/1782768911533936774
Yeah, I don't believe that either as a strictly interpreted statement. On the other hand, I'm not sure even a guy like McShay would just make that up out of whole cloth....it probably reflects at least a majority opinion (maybe a sizable one) of those he has spoken with.I feel 100% confident McShay is full of shit. No way you call DOZENs of teams and get a consensus on just about anything.
Yeah, that was my point. I'm sure it's McShay saying "the League likes Daniels more than Maye" which may well be true, but the idea that he went out and NOBODY had Maye higher... no chance that is actually the case, just none. Every year teams are all over the place as a FO nevermind individuals within those rooms.Yeah, I don't believe that either as a strictly interpreted statement. On the other hand, I'm not sure even a guy like McShay would just make that up out of whole cloth....it probably reflects at least a majority opinion (maybe a sizable one) of those he has spoken with.
That doesn't mean its what will happen of course. The people he talks with may not be a representative sample of decision makers around the league. And in the end its one set of decision makers in Washington that really matter.
My guess is the Pats haven't gotten the right offer yet is because teams either want Maye or Daniels, but until Washington (or someone) picks their guy at #2, there is no way to know which of them might be there at 3. I would imagine as soon as Washington picks, the Pats phone lights up like a Snoop Dogg blunt.
I had to read your post to realize there were multiple colors. Rainbows and foliage be damned ... and especially color-coded excel spreadsheets. (Oh, and trying to pick up dog shit in grass)No need to change for me, I can tell by dark and lighter. Usually I can see orange, but on the chart above I see 2 shades of gray... which we all know is 48 shades short.
I don't think people remember these draft details. In both those scenarios, they wind up with shitty QBs, the team probably stinks, and the GM probably gets fired.Let's look at 2 negative scenarios.
Scenario 1:
They take whichever of Maye or Daniels falls to 3 and that player ends up not being good
Scenario 2:
They trade out of #3, the QB thats picked at #3 is a stud, and the QB they end up with stinks
To me, the optics look a lot worse for the FO in scenario 2 (though I understand at least they get the draft capital). They basically had the QB of the future sitting there, didn't have to trade anything, just follow conventional wisdom, and instead they willingly gave him away.
Seems like a worse look to me than just going with the expected pick and it doesn't work out, but perhaps people won't remember the draft details in the end.
His odds have moved in the opposite direction. He's +1100 to be taken second. Meanwhile, the line has moved pretty significantly toward Daniels. He's now -400. He was -190 to -200 just a couple of days ago.Take it for what it's worth, but I've been seeing a decent amount of buzz on Twitter for WFT to take McCarthy (which I guess is support by Vegas odds as well)
I don't know, if the scenario plays out like @radsoxfan said I am pretty sure most would remember. I mean, how often is it brought up that the Bears could have had Mahomes and took Trubitsky instead? Feels like multiple times every yearI don't think people remember these draft details. In both those scenarios, they wind up with shitty QBs, the team probably stinks, and the GM probably gets fired.
He may have called that many but I would bet it was all scouts..and I would guess that more than a few weren't very high ranking. Which essentially means nothingYeah, that was my point. I'm sure it's McShay saying "the League likes Daniels more than Maye" which may well be true, but the idea that he went out and NOBODY had Maye higher... no chance that is actually the case, just none. Every year teams are all over the place as a FO nevermind individuals within those rooms.
Big move in a few days. Betting on this isn't available in my state, so now I know why I couldn't find the odds when I logged in.His odds have moved in the opposite direction. He's +1100 to be taken second. Meanwhile, the line has moved pretty significantly toward Daniels. He's now -400. He was -190 to -200 just a couple of days ago.
This is a good example of how only the results matter, which is what I'm arguing. The consensus big board had Trubisky 23rd (just behind Watson 22nd) and Mahomes 30th. But no one cares that it was defensible by consensus at the time; it failed so they're dumb.I don't know, if the scenario plays out like @radsoxfan said I am pretty sure most would remember. I mean, how often is it brought up that the Bears could have had Mahomes and took Trubitsky instead? Feels like multiple times every year
This is kind of what lines are. It's more complicated than that, but the days of some guy with a visor who knows the teams and sets the initial lines are kind of gone. Not for the big events, but for the most part, the line is set by bettors, with the books using their data analytics models after the initial exploratory lines are set.one of the lines makers admitted he was just going by what people were betting and they themselves had no idea...
Awesome list. Thanks for this.Coleman was also an X at FSU. I dislike Legette because he is an older super senior late breakout prospect.
Here are my WR rankings.
I highlighted in orange the guys I felt good about being an X. The green guys can also be an X but they might be best in the slot or as a Z.
View attachment 81406
I would add here that I would take my top 7 guys round 1, 8-11 early round 2, 12-15 mid to late round 2, 16-20 round 3, and 21-23 round 3/4 and the rest day 3.
I think the more interesting question would be where these guys would have ended up had the Bears taken Mahomes and immediately threw him into the fire with John Fox as his coach and throwing to Kendall Wright and Josh Bellamy, and Andy Reid took Trubisky and let him sit a year and learn from Alex Smith, and then join a loaded team.This is a good example of how only the results matter, which is what I'm arguing. The consensus big board had Trubisky 23rd (just behind Watson 22nd) and Mahomes 30th. But no one cares that it was defensible by consensus at the time; it failed so they're dumb.
This is kind of what lines are. It's more complicated than that, but the days of some guy with a visor who knows the teams and sets the initial lines are kind of gone. Not for the big events, but for the most part, the line is set by bettors, with the books using their data analytics models after the initial exploratory lines are set.
But for the most part if you view any gambling line as the combined wisdom of the thousands who are making the bets and who have accumulated and digested all the information, with weighting toward betters that have proven to be sharps, then you're really not that far off.
My guess is that these kinds of markets are ones where those who set the initial lines are not really concerned because the limits on these bets are probably significant and so it's really just a loss leader or marketing. So I agree with your fundamental point, but the idea that the lines do not genuinely reflect more information than any one person has would be a mistake. Do I think Daniels is 4x more likely to go second than Maye? I think probably not. But I'm not confident enough to bet it, and I do not believe Draft Kings is going to let a completely fucked line that does not reflect actual value get put out there. I don't think the books have inside information. But they do have the combined wisdom of the sum total of all the information that is available to the public, as reflected in the line. I'm sure @Brand Name could set me straight, but I don't think these are entirely irrelevant.
Well, again, I'm a little reluctant to spout off on something I don't understand that well when we have someone (or several someones) here, like @Brand Name, who can run circles around my understanding of these issues. (It would be like if I tried to spout off on how to evaluate players in the draft as though you weren't here :0).)I think this applies well to most things you can bet on but not the NFL draft. I want to come back to this though as it is a fascinating topic and I am curious if you have more to say on it. I am all ears!
They have to, right? Because there are actual human beings who know what the picks are going to be at the top of the draft, you have to cap their economic incentive. It's not an exercise in uncertainty like a game or election or something.I have heard that they are capping at low amounts and that makes sense. I just find this interesting because I think a lot of it is semi-informed speculation but sometimes big things can move markets that are fake AF. Like say a reddit post about the Panthers and Will Levis. That actually moved the line last year. If one were so inclined... that is a good scam, no?\
Quick edit: the Sumer pod said that this not an event casinos want heavy exposure to FWIW.
That's what he meant, it just makes little sense. The Patriots had very little presence at his Pro-Day, they met with the other QB prospects more throughout the whole process. It all points to Penix being a contingency plan, and not the guy they wanted all along.I believe what Lazar means is not that Penix IS the most talented player in the draft, a la Tatum, but that he can see this as a scenario in which the Patriots believe he is, and think they can get people to trade up - as the Celtics did - and still land their "Tatum" themselves. As a close follower of Lazar's, I can assure you that he does NOT agree with this evaluation - he is all in on Drake Maye - and I think would be pretty unhappy with the result of Thursday being ANYTHING other than Patriots stick-and-pick Maye at #3.
EDIT: I think he is a bit shell-shocked right now, stressing - as I am - about all the smoke from the last week or so, and worried that the Patriots are going to find a way to screw up what is, arguably, a really simple proposition.
Yeah, I think what's baked into this theory is the very unlikely reality that all of this has been something of a smokescreen. My hope is what I'm guessing Lazar's is, and what I think those of us - you included, I believe - who really want them to take Maye: that this is all kind of silly season bullshit, seeing if the fog of war will lead to that "bag" they keep hoping for. That said, it concerns me, and not just a little, that the brain-trust is actively hoping for a bag. Because that suggests they don't like Drake Maye, or at least that they don't like him enough.That's what he meant, it just makes little sense. The Patriots had very little presence at his Pro-Day, they met with the other QB prospects more throughout the whole process. It all points to Penix being a contingency plan, and not the guy they wanted all along.