What does 2023 look like?

[chawson]

Who do we think should be hitting better? Career mediocrities like Kike and Duvall? Connor Wong? I’d like to see coaches held accountable for results once in a while, but the talent is what it is.

I agree with this totally, at least in terms of why I don't really blame Cora for the struggles of the team this year.

Hernandez OPS+ the past 5 years have been 87, 81, 108, 73 and 69. One of these things is not like the other. Arroyo being so bad is a bit more surprising (he was trending in a direction to at least be a capable offensive player when he was on the field, but of course, he is never on the field). Duvall is a career 98 OPS+ player, but certainly past his prime seasons.

But it's not a roster built to win; it's a roster built to not completely suck and he's getting not completely suck performance out of it.

I will say that Cora was hired to be the manager of a really freaking good MLB team (they were good before Cora got here in 2018). Maybe an argument can be made that he's not the right manager for a total rebuild, but that's a different argument than he's not getting what should be expected. A removal for fit may be justifiable; a removal for cause, not so much.

But players are not fixed, static entities. Everyone is constantly changing and refining their approach. You can't just point to career stats and say, see!

Some of this year's best hitters include Luke Raley, LaMonte Wade Jr., Isaac Paredes, TJ Freidl, Christian Walker, Lane Thomas, Ryan Noda and Brent Rooker. Some of this year's worst hitters include Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, Willy Adames, C.J. Cron, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Trey Mancini and Trea Turner.

Good teams are constantly reworking players into better ones.

Right in line with that thought process, Turner has been good, and has been continuing his downward trend (not surprising based on his age) of going 133 to 120 to 119 to 110. Which again, is not surprising that guys start trending below their career lines as they get older (Turner is a career 125 OPS+ player).

Justin Turner is often a slow starter. Career wRC+ by month:

March/April - 106
May - 117
June - 136
July - 136
Aug - 129
Sept - 139

Last year he was at 98 wRC+ on June 30 and finished the year at 123 wRC+. This year he's at 114.

On the current 26 man roster, by my count 21 of them have been acquired by Bloom (I believe the 5 that weren't are Casas, Devers, Duran, Bello and Crawford). They were pretty much all acquired (for better or worse) to be stop gap pieces while getting to the guys in system. It shouldn't be a surprise when, collectively, a team of players acquired on the cheap produce like guys whom are cheap for a reason. If the Sox had San Diego's roster or the Mets roster and were having their seasons then yes, fire Cora yesterday.

I don't see it this way. I'll give you Caleb Hamilton, but I don't see that anyone else was acquired to be a "stop gap" player. To varying degrees, everyone is acquired because they are good players and therefore valuable, or the organization thinks they can become better players — or, if you like, more valuable commodities — than they are, with playing time and/or system's development program.

I suppose you can say Turner, Jansen and Martin are are "stop gap pieces" simply because of their ages, but why not just call them elite players at each of their positions? Turner has the 34th highest wOBA among all MLB hitters (min. 1000 PA) since 2020-22. Chris Martin is an elite reliever with some injury risk, and Jansen is still an excellent one, with incredible durability.

 

[Rovin Romine]

But it's not a roster built to win; it's a roster built to not completely suck and he's getting not completely suck performance out of it.

Eh. . .I sort of agree with this, but my expectations are a notch higher. I think the overall plan was to be competitive while not blocking younger players or trading younger (cost controlled) assets.

So the level of competitiveness depends on health and development. If all the younger players crater. . .well, that's just not going to be a competitive team. If you lose most of your SP due to injuries. . .that's just not going to be a competitive team. And there's just zero reason to blame Cora (or Bloom) for Duvall breaking his wrist, or Houck going to down to a come-backer, etc. In fact, we had some redundancy built in - more so than 2022.

But, in terms of "not suck" v. "competitive" - consider the intended team; if Sale and Houck hadn't been injured, and Pivetta and Kluber were at least .500ish pitchers behind this offense, we're probably 3-5 wins up right now at 42-38 or 45-37, right in the mix. Part of that is we'd have greater depth in the bullpen. (Likewise, if we had Story/Mondesi at SS, we'd look like a completely different club.)

Oddly enough, we've had some good luck with call-up players, especially Duran and some pitchers, and Pivetta has shown some competence out of the bullpen. So in some ways it's really the damaging performance of the under-achievers that's at issue, rather than a strict lack of depth - e.g.: Kluber's 9 mostly abysmal starts (club record 3-6) - that alone is a strong swing toward, if not into, competitiveness.

Maybe an argument can be made that he's not the right manager for a total rebuild, but that's a different argument than he's not getting what should be expected. A removal for fit may be justifiable; a removal for cause, not so much.

It's not really a total rebuild though. It's a club with some key short-term vets, budding younger players, and not a ton in the middle. Personally I think Cora's "steady on" approach is generally ill-suited for mix-and-match baseball.

To his credit he's PHing more: https://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/coraal01.shtml#manager_tendencies

 

[RS2004foreever]

I am skeptical that hitting coaches matter much (if they did we should see some of them making millions a year).

Years ago I became curious about volatility in runs scored. This was 2011 - and it seemed the Red Sox had a ton of offense - and when you looked at runs per game they looked very good indeed. But if you looked at MEDIAN runs (which is more important) they were not as good. It's a part of offensive production that no one seems interested in and I am surprised more is not made of it.

Last year Boson was 9th in runs scored (2 behind Houston who was 8th). This year they are - wait for it - 8th. Since May they are 17th, and since June 1 they are 14th. So in terms of runs scored they are at worst average.

Since June 21st they are dead last in runs scored, despite playing more games than many other teams. Over that stretch, they are slashing .195/.246/.284.

Some of this looks like luck. BABIP is .270. Their hard hit% is 18th in baseball - so some balls are being hit hard and are being caught (Arroyo in particular looks like a victim here)

The hardest part about following baseball is differentiating random chance from a real change. I don't think Boston's offense is anything worse than average, and I would predict that the cold streak won't last. But maybe are the team where average runs per game is misleading.

 

[dhappy42]

Turner taking grounders at 2B, supposedly to make room for Duvall at DH and keep Duran in CF.

BOSTON — Justin Turner, a 38-year-old designated hitter who has not started a major league game at second base since 2015, has been taking groundballs at the position and could get an occasional start at second in the coming days.
https://theathletic.com/4669571/2023/07/06/red-sox-short-term-long-term/?source=user_shared_article

 

[Sox Pride]

So as the tradeline approaches, what do we want the Sox to do?

Sell (this plan is easy - trade away the older talent that isn't under long term contract.)
Play hard to get - only sell if we're blown away by an offer - but mostly stand pat.
Buy (and if we're buying - what are we looking to improve? SP? RP? SS?)

What trade announcement on Wednesday (within reality) would make you happy?

 

[chrisfont9]

So as the tradeline approaches, what do we want the Sox to do?

Sell (this plan is easy - trade away the older talent that isn't under long term contract.)
Play hard to get - only sell if we're blown away by an offer - but mostly stand pat.
Buy (and if we're buying - what are we looking to improve? SP? RP? SS?)

What trade announcement on Wednesday (within reality) would make you happy?

The second one

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think it’s both. Buy based on mid to long term, sell based on short term.

 

[JM3]

I was confused by this graphic a lot until I realized they meant LAD in the 2 spot, not LAA.

How do we feel about a 1 in 83 chance of a title?

View: https://twitter.com/CodifyBaseball/status/1678491227933802496

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I was confused by this graphic a lot until I realized they meant LAD in the 2 spot, not LAA.

How do we feel about a 1 in 83 chance of a title?

View: https://twitter.com/CodifyBaseball/status/1678491227933802496

How is SD so far ahead of the Red Sox? And the Mets hardly behind?

 

[Archer1979]

How is SD so far ahead of the Red Sox? And the Mets hardly behind?

Most likely potential and those two that you mentioned have underperformed this year compared to the pre-season picks. I don't agree with it as your record says you are who you are.

But copying and pasting the standings doesn't generate clicks.

 

[JM3]

The actual Fangraphs page has slightly different #s from those.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

This is the way they explain their methodology...

To generate the playoff odds, we take the current standings, the remaining schedule, and each team's projected performance. We use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times. We aggregate these outcomes to find the probability of winning the division or a Wild Card spot, along with winning the World Series and various playoff rounds. If a team has a 90% chance to make the playoffs it means that 18,000 out of the 20,000 simulated seasons end with the team making the playoffs.

To some extent underlying metrics can certainly be more predictive of future success than past record. How good these projections are & how thorough? I couldn't tell you.

If you toggle to the other methods, the ATC method gives them a 0.7% chance, the season to date method gives them a 1.5% chance & the coin flip method gives them a 2.6% chance.

FanGraphs Projections Mode
This mode is forward looking and uses the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections for rate statistics (a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer) and playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season.

ATC Projections Mode
This mode is forward looking and uses the ATC projections for rate statistics (a combination of multiple projection systems) and our FanGraphs Depth Chart playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season.

Season to Date Stats Mode
This mode is backward looking and uses current season stats, weighted more heavily towards the most recent games, to calculate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season.

Coin Flip Mode
This mode is completely neutral and uses a coin flip to determine the winner of each game, giving each matchup 50/50 odds.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

How is SD so far ahead of the Red Sox? And the Mets hardly behind?

Minnesota at 3.0 is a very bad bet

 

[nvalvo]

I find it hard to believe that Cincinnati’s chances are worse than ours. They are better than even to be in the postseason!

 

[AB in DC]

Normally I prefer BP's odds forecast, which tends to incorporate both pre-season projections and performance-to-date, but their numbers are wackier than Fangraphs'. Houston at 11.7%? Rangers at 2.2%?

 

[Benj4ever]

How is SD so far ahead of the Red Sox? And the Mets hardly behind?

Looks like they're awestruck at these star-studded rosters...LOL!

 

[JM3]

I find it hard to believe there are any teams with worse middle infield than us, but I guess Niko Goodrum will have a decision soon.

View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1673866638049812480

Apparently he found one...in Korea.

View: https://twitter.com/Jeeho_1/status/1678668376305172480

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Cross-posted from the thread on Teel, but I found this interesting when looking up Bailey as a comp for Teel in terms of time to make it to the majors. Obviously discussion of trades can and will happen in other threads, but I really like the way San Francisco is addressing their injury and performance issues this year with giving run to their prospects after (in many cases MUCH) less than two months combined between AA and AAA levels.

Incidentally, I really like the way SFG are replacing either injured or ineffective veterans by challenging their top prospects this season and seeing what they can do at the MLB level. Sure, it won't always work, but they've brought up Bailey after only 28 games split between AA and AAA; Blake Sabol after a combined 123g between the two, Casey Schmitt with a combined 125g; Brett Wisely with a combined 148g and Luis Matos with a combined 55g.

I really hope to see something similar from the Sox in the 2nd half - obviously I do not mean "Teel"; here.

Said it before, and I maintain it, I think the Sox are significantly behind the curve of other smart teams in terms of bringing up young players and challenging them when the players they're replacing are either injured or flat out not good baseball players.

 

[YTF]

Other than Rafaela, who

Cross-posted from the thread on Teel, but I found this interesting when looking up Bailey as a comp for Teel in terms of time to make it to the majors. Obviously discussion of trades can and will happen in other threads, but I really like the way San Francisco is addressing their injury and performance issues this year with giving run to their prospects after (in many cases MUCH) less than two months combined between AA and AAA levels.

Incidentally, I really like the way SFG are replacing either injured or ineffective veterans by challenging their top prospects this season and seeing what they can do at the MLB level. Sure, it won't always work, but they've brought up Bailey after only 28 games split between AA and AAA; Blake Sabol after a combined 123g between the two, Casey Schmitt with a combined 125g; Brett Wisely with a combined 148g and Luis Matos with a combined 55g.

I really hope to see something similar from the Sox in the 2nd half - obviously I do not mean "Teel"; here.

Said it before, and I maintain it, I think the Sox are significantly behind the curve of other smart teams in terms of bringing up young players and challenging them when the players they're replacing are either injured or flat out not good baseball players.

Other than Rafaela, who on the 40 man do you want to see? If you want another look at Dalbec that's OK, but at whose expense? Other than Abreau I think everyone's had a look.

 

[Fishy1]

Cross-posted from the thread on Teel, but I found this interesting when looking up Bailey as a comp for Teel in terms of time to make it to the majors. Obviously discussion of trades can and will happen in other threads, but I really like the way San Francisco is addressing their injury and performance issues this year with giving run to their prospects after (in many cases MUCH) less than two months combined between AA and AAA levels.

Incidentally, I really like the way SFG are replacing either injured or ineffective veterans by challenging their top prospects this season and seeing what they can do at the MLB level. Sure, it won't always work, but they've brought up Bailey after only 28 games split between AA and AAA; Blake Sabol after a combined 123g between the two, Casey Schmitt with a combined 125g; Brett Wisely with a combined 148g and Luis Matos with a combined 55g.

I really hope to see something similar from the Sox in the 2nd half - obviously I do not mean "Teel"; here.

Said it before, and I maintain it, I think the Sox are significantly behind the curve of other smart teams in terms of bringing up young players and challenging them when the players they're replacing are either injured or flat out not good baseball players.

This is interesting. Looking at the Sox prospects in the bigs right now - Casas got about 350 PA in AAA of seasoning, Wong got about 500. Duran got 250 or so before getting promoted, stunk up the joint, got another 300, stunk up the joint again, and then got 50 more before finally hitting his stride (and the ball). So Duran's maybe the only one who got "rushed" up, and that didn't work out so well.

if you go further back, Devers pretty much went straight from tearing the cover off the ball in AA for 320 PA to the majors (40 PA in AAA and that was it). Benitendi was another guy who made the leap -- actually straight from AA to the majors. Bogaerts got minimal seasoning, around 250 PA in AAA.

So it does happen. Not super recently, but I don't think the Red Sox have had a prospect at the caliber of Devers or Benintendi who rocketed through the minors straight to a promotion available right now.

I could maybe see them trying it with any of the crop of guys who are performing well in AA and AAA -- Scott, Meidroth, Rafaela, Valdez, Ronaldo Hernandez, Wilyer Abreu -- but I don't see the need. We've seen Valdez, and it was a horror show at 2nd base. Abreu might not hit enough to be a big leaguer, Meidroth doesn't really have a position. All those guys have people in front of them right now who will probably perform as well if not better, or players returning in the form of Story who would be better. Rafaela could help on defense right away, I guess, and I don't see his discipline improving, but he's redundant with Duvall right now.

Scott/Ronaldo are the only ones who I think might be an improvement over Alfaro, but I don't know enough about how they're receiving behind the plate to speak with any confidence.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

How is SD so far ahead of the Red Sox? And the Mets hardly behind?

Just a guess, but I wonder if it's a combination of underlying metrics and the rest of the NL? Looking at WC contenders, the Padres have a better differential than Philly, Miami, SF, and Milwaukee (and the Reds, but that's no fun). I'm not out and out predicting they'll make the playoffs, but one can see a plausible path. The comparison to the Red Sox is interesting, though

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

In some ways @Fishy1 beat me to it, but my point is that even the "smart teams" aren't necessarily looking to "only" move up elite prospects that are destroying the minor leagues. That's why I'm specifically omitting anyone like an Acuna or Soto of whom we don't have anyone close to that level, and used the players SF has brought up.

Again, my personal preference is to try and find areas where the Red Sox can be a buyer at the deadline. A lot of this is on the SP side, but at least one and quite possibly two middle infielders (if and when Story does in fact come back, awesome, plug him in, but don't depend solely on that to fix two problems in the middle infield).

To answer the question directly @YTF, Rafaela is the big one. I believe reports are that he is a good infielder across the board (and possibly an GG guy in CF) but I trust the guys at Sox prospects that when they say "(Rafaela) has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond" that you get him up here literally about a month ago to take a middle infield position.

Giving another chance to Valdez would be next on my list (already on the 40 man).

Abreu is another. I'd get rid of Duvall for whatever you can to go with a primary of alignment of Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo every day. If one wants to say that Duvall gets no time beyond being the "4th" OF, fine, I suppose. But I'd rather trade Duvall (if you can get a piece to help this year's team, awesome, if not, whatever is the best you can get in the low minors that doesn't have to be protected). Point is that Duran (and Yoshida) ought to be playing every day, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher on the mound. I wouldn't even really "hate" the idea of making Aberu the 4th OF. Yes, that is almost all LH hitting OFs, however 1) I don't want Duran pulled against LHPs; 2) Yoshida has virtually no split and 3) Abreu has been pretty good against both RHP (.248/.380/.469) and LHP (.260/.333/.460) this season, so I'd be very on board with giving him a chance.

If the Red Sox absolutely refuse to bring Rafaela up to play a middle infield position b/c his defense is so outstanding in the OF, then I'd give Yorke or Meidroth a chance at 2b. I would advise trading one of Hernandez or Arroyo for literally whatever you can get. If they are so worthless in the game that you can't get anyone to take one, DFA said player. If they really don't want to get rid of Hernandez / Arroyo then DFA any of the worthless 15 day IL pitchers like Ort, Bleier or Kluber. (I think the Sox would actually get something interesting for paying the full freight on Hernandez, so trading him would be my preference, but if I'm wrong, DFA someone).

The pitching side is admittedly more complicated because frankly there is nobody in Worcester that looks like a MLB caliber starter. However, even WHEN guys like Kluber, Belier and Ort ostensibly come off the IL, you continue to give time to Murphy, Walter and even Mata or Drohan and hope for the best, and if that means you simply DFA those types, then you DFA them. Add Tayler Scott to that possible DFA list as well.

 

[Fishy1]

In some ways @Fishy1 beat me to it, but my point is that even the "smart teams" aren't necessarily looking to "only" move up elite prospects that are destroying the minor leagues. That's why I'm specifically omitting anyone like an Acuna or Soto of whom we don't have anyone close to that level, and used the players SF has brought up.

Again, my personal preference is to try and find areas where the Red Sox can be a buyer at the deadline. A lot of this is on the SP side, but at least one and quite possibly two middle infielders (if and when Story does in fact come back, awesome, plug him in, but don't depend solely on that to fix two problems in the middle infield).

To answer the question directly @YTF, Rafaela is the big one. I believe reports are that he is a good infielder across the board (and possibly an GG guy in CF) but I trust the guys at Sox prospects that when they say "(Rafaela) has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond" that you get him up here literally about a month ago to take a middle infield position.

Giving another chance to Valdez would be next on my list (already on the 40 man).

Abreu is another. I'd get rid of Duvall for whatever you can to go with a primary of alignment of Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo every day. If one wants to say that Duvall gets no time beyond being the "4th" OF, fine, I suppose. But I'd rather trade Duvall (if you can get a piece to help this year's team, awesome, if not, whatever is the best you can get in the low minors that doesn't have to be protected). Point is that Duran (and Yoshida) ought to be playing every day, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher on the mound. I wouldn't even really "hate" the idea of making Aberu the 4th OF. Yes, that is almost all LH hitting OFs, however 1) I don't want Duran pulled against LHPs; 2) Yoshida has virtually no split and 3) Abreu has been pretty good against both RHP (.248/.380/.469) and LHP (.260/.333/.460) this season, so I'd be very on board with giving him a chance.

If the Red Sox absolutely refuse to bring Rafaela up to play a middle infield position b/c his defense is so outstanding in the OF, then I'd give Yorke or Meidroth a chance at 2b. I would advise trading one of Hernandez or Arroyo for literally whatever you can get. If they are so worthless in the game that you can't get anyone to take one, DFA said player. If they really don't want to get rid of Hernandez / Arroyo then DFA any of the worthless 15 day IL pitchers like Ort, Bleier or Kluber. (I think the Sox would actually get something interesting for paying the full freight on Hernandez, so trading him would be my preference, but if I'm wrong, DFA someone).

The pitching side is admittedly more complicated because frankly there is nobody in Worcester that looks like a MLB caliber starter. However, even WHEN guys like Kluber, Belier and Ort ostensibly come off the IL, you continue to give time to Murphy, Walter and even Mata or Drohan and hope for the best, and if that means you simply DFA those types, then you DFA them. Add Tayler Scott to that possible DFA list as well.

I know Abreu doesn't have much of a split, but that contact profile, combined with the K rate, doesn't leave a lot of room to maneuver. If his K rate jumps by 3 or 4% and his BB rate falls by 3 or 4%, suddenly you've got a guy slashing somewhere around .220/.320/.390, which is, like, fine, but worse than what they have out ther right now. I just don't see it right now with Abreu. Don't get me wrong, he could be a big league regular in the future, but I wouldn't want to be on it right now.

I'm not sure what the rush is with Rafaela, either. Again, I'm not super convinced more seasoning in AAA will change his approach in the big leagues, but they'd have to cut or trade somebody first to make room for him. Would he better than Kike? Probably. I think there's already a good case for moving on from Duvall in that he's fairly redundant with Refsnyder.

But Story could be coming back after the ASB, so the middle infield will already be crowded. I could see us dumping Reyes and Kike. But Arroyo of the last couple seasons (much as I've hated watching him this year) is essentially Rafaela's upside as a hitter: a slightly above average hitter with a chase rate like Michael Myers off of Halloween. If Rafaela is playing supersub, then either Refsnyder or Chang is pushed to the wayside, and I don't want Refsnyder's bat marginalized right now or Chang's glove. Not because I'm a Chang truther or believe "in his upside with the bat" (I don't think he really has any besides a teensy weensy bit of pop) but because it reduces the team's flexibility. If Rafaela goes down, and Kike and Reyes have been cut, suddenly we're looking at David Hamilton as a back-up again.

 

[dhappy42]

…I'd get rid of Duvall for whatever can to go with a primary of alignment of Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo every day. If one wants to say that Duvall gets no time beyond being the "4th" OF, fine, I suppose.

Refsnyder doesn’t get enough love. I agree Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo should play every day and that Duvall is expendable, but considering his post-injury performance, I’d rank him as the 5th outfielder. As others have noted, the problem with trading Duvall now is you don’t get anything in return.

As you say, even after Story returns, there’s still an opportunity to try out Rafaela and/or Yorke at 2B. Or to give Valdez another shot. Barring more MI injuries, that’d require cutting one or more of Arroyo, Hernandez, Chang or Reyes, none of whom would garner anything in a trade.

 

[Fishy1]

Refsnyder doesn’t get enough love. I agree Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo should play every day and that Duvall is expendable, but considering his post-injury performance, I’d rank him as the 5th outfielder. As others have noted, the problem with trading Duvall now is you don’t get anything in return.

As you say, even after Story returns, there’s still an opportunity to try out Rafaela and/or Yorke at 2B. Or to give Valdez another shot. Barring more MI injuries, that’d require cutting one or more of Arroyo, Hernandez, Chang or Reyes, none of whom would garner anything in a trade.

Agreed on Refsnyder. The guy just fucking mashes LHP.

I don't want to see Valdez playing 2B again unless the FO is 100% sure he can field the position. The dude is a butcher. Once he adjusts to big league pitching I'm fairly confident he'll mash, but the fielding... dear lord.

Arroyo can hit well enough and field well enough to handle the position. If he goes down, then Valdez can have another shot.

Yorke is not ready. I like him, but he's another guy who's current contact profile /peripherals make me worried about his adjustment. Reminds me of Duran and Valdez (one of who is obviously smoking the cover off the ball right now, but who a lot of people were looking to trade for dirt back in the spring). A 25% K rate in AA could balloon to Wongish proportions if he's promoted too fast.

I wish Meidroth was more comfortable at 2B. He'd be my bet on a fast track promotion. He's still getting time there in AA - limited time, but time nonetheless. I can't think of anybody else in the system with his combination of approach and hit tool besides maybe Roman Anthony.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Cross-posted from the thread on Teel, but I found this interesting when looking up Bailey as a comp for Teel in terms of time to make it to the majors. Obviously discussion of trades can and will happen in other threads, but I really like the way San Francisco is addressing their injury and performance issues this year with giving run to their prospects after (in many cases MUCH) less than two months combined between AA and AAA levels.

Incidentally, I really like the way SFG are replacing either injured or ineffective veterans by challenging their top prospects this season and seeing what they can do at the MLB level. Sure, it won't always work, but they've brought up Bailey after only 28 games split between AA and AAA; Blake Sabol after a combined 123g between the two, Casey Schmitt with a combined 125g; Brett Wisely with a combined 148g and Luis Matos with a combined 55g.

I really hope to see something similar from the Sox in the 2nd half - obviously I do not mean "Teel"; here.

Said it before, and I maintain it, I think the Sox are significantly behind the curve of other smart teams in terms of bringing up young players and challenging them when the players they're replacing are either injured or flat out not good baseball players.

San Francisco is the example you give, but are they doing that specifically to "challenge" those prospects or are they doing it because they don't have better alternatives? To put it a different way, did they bring up Matos, Schmitt, et all to challenge them or because they are otherwise organizationally thin at the upper levels of their farm system?

You cite Rafaela and I assume you want to see him "challenged" at SS (or 2B) on the big league team because CF is well handled. Is he not getting the shot because they don't want to push him or because he's truly #6 or 7 on the depth chart and they haven't quite gotten that far down the list? Is there any reason that he should have been leap frogged over Hamilton or Valdez or Chang? Seems like the only quibble might be having bought Reyes to fill in rather than promote from within.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm not sure the players being promoted and "challenged" on other teams is down to them being smart or on the cutting edge of some kind of developmental philosophy so much as desperate.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say to get rid of Refsnyder. He's absolutely a fit as an RHH OF option. He also makes Duvall even more of a hindrance on the team. There is no reason to bench Yoshida against LHP, Duran should be playing every day regardless (and has a .742OPS against LHP this year as well, so not bad at all). If the decision is to give Verdugo that day off, no problem with slotting Refsnyder in there. Duvall would thus be taking away at bats from one of your best overall hitters (Yoshida), an emerging young piece of the core (Duran) or a superior option against LHP (Refsnyder).

San Francisco is the example you give, but are they doing that specifically to "challenge" those prospects or are they doing it because they don't have better alternatives? To put it a different way, did they bring up Matos, Schmitt, et all to challenge them or because they are otherwise organizationally thin at the upper levels of their farm system?

You cite Rafaela and I assume you want to see him "challenged" at SS (or 2B) on the big league team because CF is well handled. Is he not getting the shot because they don't want to push him or because he's truly #6 or 7 on the depth chart and they haven't quite gotten that far down the list? Is there any reason that he should have been leap frogged over Hamilton or Valdez or Chang? Seems like the only quibble might be having bought Reyes to fill in rather than promote from within.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm not sure the players being promoted and "challenged" on other teams is down to them being smart or on the cutting edge of some kind of developmental philosophy so much as desperate.

Fair question regarding SF, but I think they had more of a plan to challenge their prospects, yes, and I think it's a good one. Also, I'd argue that just because they're in the majors doesn't ensure that Kike Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang or Pablo Reyes are necessarily "better alternatives" than several of our prospects in the upper minors. Even if that ends up being the case, I don't think they're "demonstrably so much better" alternatives that it warrants NOT finding out.


To the question of SF, specifically, it appears:

Bailey is up because Joey Bart has been atrocious with an Enriquian 61 OPS+ (Kike's is 62).

Matos is up because SF signed an always injured guy whom is predictably injured (Haniger). Hangier is like a hitting version of mid 30s Chris Sale (not in his prime Chris Sale) In that when he's on the field he's usually useful, he's just never on the field.

Schmitt and Sabol have been up most of the year (50 and 67 of 90 games, respectively) so they're not just there as injury replacements. Sabol seems to have been part of "the plan" at catcher, while playing some outfield.


Did SF specifically not stock their MLB roster and high minors with "high error bar" players or "meh" pieces to give their prospects a chance or did they luck into it? Even though I tend to think it's the former, I don't have anything to prove (or disprove) that, so overall I don't have an answer to that, but they're succeeding with it.

Edit - I looked into SF a bit more specifically. In 2022 they had a ton of older veterans on short term money whom either under-performed (Brandon Belt, Tommy LaStella, Darin Ruf, Austin Wynns, Curt Casali,) or were hurt (Longoria). They elected to move on from Belt (1b), LaStella (DH), Casali (C) and Longoria (3b). In essence they replaced them with LaMont Wade Jr, acquired JD Davis (last year), and Joc Pederson and started out with Joey Bart. After trading him, SF actually brought back Ruf and Wynns, and when those two sucked again, DFA'ed them (I'm guessing DFA'ed them).

This is, again, what I'd like the Sox to do - get rid of the guys on short money whom have been injured or terrible and give a chance to the prospects and maybe find someone with term that fills a need (a la SF last year trading Ruf for JD Davis).


Atlanta has done similar things too. Grissom and Harris both came up after very short stints in the upper minors. Riley got around 185g in the upper minors, Rafaela is at around 145g at present. Harris, FWIW, came up and essentially replaced - Adam Duvall.

 

[YTF]

Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say to get rid of Refsnyder. He's absolutely a fit as an RHH OF option. He also makes Duvall even more of a hindrance on the team. There is no reason to bench Yoshida against LHP, Duran should be playing every day regardless (and has a .742OPS against LHP this year as well, so not bad at all). If the decision is to give Verdugo that day off, no problem with slotting Refsnyder in there. Duvall would thus be taking away at bats from one of your best overall hitters (Yoshida), an emerging young piece of the core (Duran) or a superior option against LHP (Refsnyder).



Fair question regarding SF, but I think they had more of a plan to challenge their prospects, yes, and I think it's a good one. Also, I'd argue that just because they're in the majors doesn't ensure that Kike Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang or Pablo Reyes are necessarily "better alternatives" than several of our prospects in the upper minors. Even if that ends up being the case, I don't think they're "demonstrably so much better" alternatives that it warrants NOT finding out.


To the question of SF, specifically, it appears:

Bailey is up because Joey Bart has been atrocious with an Enriquian 61 OPS+ (Kike's is 62).

Matos is up because SF signed an always injured guy whom is predictably injured (Haniger). Hangier is like a hitting version of mid 30s Chris Sale (not in his prime Chris Sale) In that when he's on the field he's usually useful, he's just never on the field.

Schmitt and Sabol have been up most of the year (50 and 67 of 90 games, respectively) so they're not just there as injury replacements. Sabol seems to have been part of "the plan" at catcher, while playing some outfield.


Did SF specifically not stock their MLB roster and high minors with "high error bar" players or "meh" pieces to give their prospects a chance or did they luck into it? Even though I tend to think it's the former, I don't have anything to prove (or disprove) that, so overall I don't have an answer to that, but they're succeeding with it.

Edit - I looked into SF a bit more specifically. In 2022 they had a ton of older veterans on short term money whom either under-performed (Brandon Belt, Tommy LaStella, Darin Ruf, Austin Wynns, Curt Casali,) or were hurt (Longoria). They elected to move on from Belt (1b), LaStella (DH), Casali (C) and Longoria (3b). In essence they replaced them with LaMont Wade Jr, acquired JD Davis (last year), and Joc Pederson and started out with Joey Bart. After trading him, SF actually brought back Ruf and Wynns, and when those two sucked again, DFA'ed them (I'm guessing DFA'ed them).

This is, again, what I'd like the Sox to do - get rid of the guys on short money whom have been injured or terrible and give a chance to the prospects and maybe find someone with term that fills a need (a la SF last year trading Ruf for JD Davis).


Atlanta has done similar things too. Grissom and Harris both came up after very short stints in the upper minors. Riley got around 185g in the upper minors, Rafaela is at around 145g at present. Harris, FWIW, came up and essentially replaced - Adam Duvall.

Did SF get rid of their "guys on short money whom have been injured or terrible" in the off season? My guess is that Duvall is likely moved and possibly Hernandez. But the team is likely to do that until Story is back. Story is part of the equation of Rafaela not being rushed and as @Red(s)HawksFan stated, he was about 6 or 7 on the depth chart. Let him continue to learn his craft.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

What is the obsession that some having with rushing guys who still have a lot of growing in the minors to the major league roster right now? Yeah, this team has holes, but is close enough to making a playoff run that magically pulling those holes would make for an interesting August and September. However, 1) what are the odds that Rafaela or York actually plug those holes versus 2) what are the odds that they prove unable to hit major league pitching? Even if it is 1) rather than 2), is this team then good enough to actually win a championship? The chance is more than zero, but still not very high. So calling them up would probably just end up wasting some of their service time before they start becoming expensive should they actually pan out. Do we really want to risk slowing their progress and wasting that period of cost control on the slight chance that this team can win it all?

 

[heavyde050]

Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to say to get rid of Refsnyder. He's absolutely a fit as an RHH OF option. He also makes Duvall even more of a hindrance on the team. There is no reason to bench Yoshida against LHP, Duran should be playing every day regardless (and has a .742OPS against LHP this year as well, so not bad at all). If the decision is to give Verdugo that day off, no problem with slotting Refsnyder in there. Duvall would thus be taking away at bats from one of your best overall hitters (Yoshida), an emerging young piece of the core (Duran) or a superior option against LHP (Refsnyder).



Fair question regarding SF, but I think they had more of a plan to challenge their prospects, yes, and I think it's a good one. Also, I'd argue that just because they're in the majors doesn't ensure that Kike Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang or Pablo Reyes are necessarily "better alternatives" than several of our prospects in the upper minors. Even if that ends up being the case, I don't think they're "demonstrably so much better" alternatives that it warrants NOT finding out.


To the question of SF, specifically, it appears:

Bailey is up because Joey Bart has been atrocious with an Enriquian 61 OPS+ (Kike's is 62).

Matos is up because SF signed an always injured guy whom is predictably injured (Haniger). Hangier is like a hitting version of mid 30s Chris Sale (not in his prime Chris Sale) In that when he's on the field he's usually useful, he's just never on the field.

Schmitt and Sabol have been up most of the year (50 and 67 of 90 games, respectively) so they're not just there as injury replacements. Sabol seems to have been part of "the plan" at catcher, while playing some outfield.


Did SF specifically not stock their MLB roster and high minors with "high error bar" players or "meh" pieces to give their prospects a chance or did they luck into it? Even though I tend to think it's the former, I don't have anything to prove (or disprove) that, so overall I don't have an answer to that, but they're succeeding with it.

Edit - I looked into SF a bit more specifically. In 2022 they had a ton of older veterans on short term money whom either under-performed (Brandon Belt, Tommy LaStella, Darin Ruf, Austin Wynns, Curt Casali,) or were hurt (Longoria). They elected to move on from Belt (1b), LaStella (DH), Casali (C) and Longoria (3b). In essence they replaced them with LaMont Wade Jr, acquired JD Davis (last year), and Joc Pederson and started out with Joey Bart. After trading him, SF actually brought back Ruf and Wynns, and when those two sucked again, DFA'ed them (I'm guessing DFA'ed them).

This is, again, what I'd like the Sox to do - get rid of the guys on short money whom have been injured or terrible and give a chance to the prospects and maybe find someone with term that fills a need (a la SF last year trading Ruf for JD Davis).


Atlanta has done similar things too. Grissom and Harris both came up after very short stints in the upper minors. Riley got around 185g in the upper minors, Rafaela is at around 145g at present. Harris, FWIW, came up and essentially replaced - Adam Duvall.

I am pretty sure Sabol has been up all year. They traded for him as a Rule V.
https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/why-rule-5-pick-sabol-was-elated-when-giants-traded-for-him/1465433/?amp=1

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What is the obsession that some having with rushing guys who still have a lot of growing in the minors to the major league roster right now? Yeah, this team has holes, but is close enough to making a playoff run that magically pulling those holes would make for an interesting August and September. However, 1) what are the odds that Rafaela or York actually plug those holes versus 2) what are the odds that they prove unable to hit major league pitching? Even if it is 1) rather than 2), is this team then good enough to actually win a championship? The chance is more than zero, but still not very high. So calling them up would probably just end up wasting some of their service time before they start becoming expensive should they actually pan out. Do we really want to risk slowing their progress and wasting that period of cost control on the slight chance that this team can win it all?

Yup. There’s no real good reason

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Did SF get rid of their "guys on short money whom have been injured or terrible" in the off season? My guess is that Duvall is likely moved and possibly Hernandez. But the team is likely to do that until Story is back. Story is part of the equation of Rafaela not being rushed and as @Red(s)HawksFan stated, he was about 6 or 7 on the depth chart. Let him continue to learn his craft.

It was a mix @YTF; Belt left via FA. LaStella was so bad that they simply ate $10.75m on his deal and released him (I suppose this would also be similar to Hernandez). Ruf was a guy they'd had a few years (similar to Hernandez in that regard) and they traded him in the middle of the 2022 season (for JD Davis). They then brought him back as a free agent after the 2022 season and then (I assume) released him after about 10 games this season. He could have had an opt out, I suppose, but either way, he was there for 10g and gone. Wynns was acquired by the Giants last year (22) in June, up with the club as their back up C and then released (again, I assume) about two weeks into this season.

What is the obsession that some having with rushing guys who still have a lot of growing in the minors to the major league roster right now? Yeah, this team has holes, but is close enough to making a playoff run that magically pulling those holes would make for an interesting August and September. However, 1) what are the odds that Rafaela or York actually plug those holes versus 2) what are the odds that they prove unable to hit major league pitching? Even if it is 1) rather than 2), is this team then good enough to actually win a championship? The chance is more than zero, but still not very high. So calling them up would probably just end up wasting some of their service time before they start becoming expensive should they actually pan out. Do we really want to risk slowing their progress and wasting that period of cost control on the slight chance that this team can win it all?

I guess for what it's worth, I'm more questioning if it would really be slowing their progress?

Maybe teams like SF and Atlanta (just as examples) are wrong and dumb and bringing these guys up early does stunt their growth. I cite them as intelligent and well run organizations, but maybe they're idiots. Based on Atlanta's recent track record of success and SF's over the long term (similar to the Sox), I'd say they're well run teams, but I certainly can't "prove" that.

Maybe they're not concerned with it stunting their growth because they don't see them as real prospects (I'd disagree here bc Bailey, Matos, Harris and Grissom are all very well regarded in the industry).

Maybe they are just much better at prospect evaluation than the Red Sox and have players talented and advanced enough that are capable of making that jump and the Sox do not.

Maybe they've realized that these guys aren't challenged at the AA and AAA level enough to really continue their development and think that the best course of action is to get them started on the cycle of adjustments that are needed at the major league level where they will be challenged and actually have players capable of exploiting their weaknesses enough to force them to adjust an approach in the minors.

I'm sure there are other possibilities that I haven't thought of but all of those listed above are plausible.

 

[walt in maryland]

Cross-posted from the thread on Teel, but I found this interesting when looking up Bailey as a comp for Teel in terms of time to make it to the majors. Obviously discussion of trades can and will happen in other threads, but I really like the way San Francisco is addressing their injury and performance issues this year with giving run to their prospects after (in many cases MUCH) less than two months combined between AA and AAA levels.

Incidentally, I really like the way SFG are replacing either injured or ineffective veterans by challenging their top prospects this season and seeing what they can do at the MLB level. Sure, it won't always work, but they've brought up Bailey after only 28 games split between AA and AAA; Blake Sabol after a combined 123g between the two, Casey Schmitt with a combined 125g; Brett Wisely with a combined 148g and Luis Matos with a combined 55g.

I really hope to see something similar from the Sox in the 2nd half - obviously I do not mean "Teel"; here.

Said it before, and I maintain it, I think the Sox are significantly behind the curve of other smart teams in terms of bringing up young players and challenging them when the players they're replacing are either injured or flat out not good baseball players.

Not sure I agree. Valdez, Hamilton, Walter and Murphy have all been given significant opportunities. It really depends on who those young players are. We'll learn more when guys like Mayer and Yorke are knocking on the door

 

[joe dokes]

It was a mix @YTF;

Maybe they are just much better at prospect evaluation than the Red Sox and have players talented and advanced enough that are capable of making that jump and the Sox do not.

What about being equally good at prospect evaluation? Each team correctly views their prospects as being ready (Atlanta) and not ready (Boston). Obviously we can't know the latter right now.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Not sure I agree. Valdez, Hamilton, Walter and Murphy have all been given significant opportunities. It really depends on who those young players are. We'll learn more when guys like Mayer and Yorke are knocking on the door

I'll respectfully agree to disagree on Valdez. He was quite good (offensively) for his first 20 games this season, putting up a .293/.349/.517/.866 line. Unsurprisingly, MLB pitchers adjusted to him and he was awful his next dozen or so games, and sent back to Worcester. He's been quite good there (offensively) since his return and really doesn't seem to be being challenged at that level at all. Yes, his defense was atrocious and I'd assume they're working on that with him down there, however, it's not like the players he was replaced by are "helping" the team all that much defensively (Arroyo has been exactly average with a 0.0 dWAR this year; Hernandez has worked his way up to a .1 dWAR) so yeah, I'd rather give the shot to the younger player with more control that is producing very good offensive numbers at the minor league level.

Especially in a "non-championship" season when they just might actually be as good (or better) than they players they're replacing. Or, put another way, I'm more interested in the unknown (that could be good or could really stink) and further developing a long term asset as opposed to the known commodity without term that has stunk.

Edit - certainly another possibility @joe dokes. We don't know. Though, to the point on Atlanta, I think Harris and Grissom are both pretty interesting examples.

They both came up and were either excellent (Harris) or pretty darn good (Grissom) in their first exposure to MLB pitching. In a surprise to nobody, the league adjusted to both of them - but Grissom much more quickly than Harris. Grissom was sent back down (replaced by Arcia) where he continues to show he's completely unchallenged by minor league pitching (.316/.397/.462/.859 line in AAA). Harris has stayed up and seemed to make the "first" adjustment (or he could have just had a torrid June), but that of course is also TBD.

Edit - as an aside, I think this is the issue with something like BTV. While it's fun to play around on, it shows Paxton, Martin and Yorke to the Braves for Grissom, Shuster and Cole Phillips as being a "moderate overpay" in favor of Atlanta. However, in the real world, I think if Bloom called and offered exactly that, Snitker would think that a WEEI caller somehow hacked Bloom's cell phone...

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Don’t you need to take into account talent- how good a prospect each individual is? Rushing Marcelo Mayer is different than rushing Enmanuel Valdez.

 

[JM3]

Valdez isn't ready to be an every day 2B for the Red Sox right now. Yes, he can hit at a Major League level, but LHH DH isn't really a fulltime available role for the Red Sox right now with Yoshida/Turner/Casas around.

So playing 2B & 3B regularly to see if he can improve with reps is the most important thing he can do for his improvement.

& yes, he hits AAA pitching well, but it's not like it's some joke for him. In 115 PAs he's hitting .270 with a .935 OPS & a 22% strikeout rate. So pretty good, but not like special & not challenged with no room for improvement.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Don’t you need to take into account talent- how good a prospect each individual is? Rushing Marcelo Mayer is different than rushing Enmanuel Valdez.

Absolutely. On both edges of the sword, so to speak.

But in the case of Mayer, he wasn't challenged at the A+ level last season (127 wRC+ in 25g); continued to not be challenged there this year (139 in 35g); but is properly being challenged at the AA level (76 in 29 games).

Contrast that with Rafaela, whom for the record I want on the team far more than - descending order - Valdez, Chang, Reyes, Arroyo, Hernandez - (119 wRC+ in 71g at AA last year; 108 in 60g this year; 110 in 11g at AAA this year).

Which is why I equate Rafaela to someone like Bailey (SFG). SF is a team on the fringe of the playoffs this year as well (49-41, 2.5g behind in their division, in the lead for the last WC spot). They had a clear need at C and brought him up to the majors with literally less than 30 combined games at the high minor levels. Pretty similar to Boston having a clear need in the middle infield, thought of course Rafaela has had approximately 7x the experience in the high minors as Bailey has.

I'd like to see Rafaela up here and playing every day (and hopefully playing next to Story in relatively short order). Valdez I'd prefer to see up here - playing next to Rafaela - until Story gets back. At which point Valdez either becomes (ideally) a IF/OF utility option.



@chawson - I'm sorry, and I totally missed your response about players this year, and I think it's a good one and want to address it. FWIW, I think Bloom is pretty good when he gives a chance to younger players that haven't really gotten a chance (call it less than 750 career ABs or a season and a half). When the team isn't in a championship window, I think those should be the "short money deals" (preferable to "stop gap"?) taken.

That's been where he's had most of his successes (not shocking as the game is trending young) and I think we'd point to his "wins" recently as targeting Verdugo, sticking with Duran, sticking with Casas, targeting Yoshida (obviously not "young" but also obviously no MLB experience), acquiring Pivetta and Renfroe and such.

Of the guys you mentioned as top hitters this year, I think that Walker is the only one in his 30s but for anyone bothering to pay attention to the Dbacks (fantasy baseball players only, I'd suppose) he'd been good in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

Of the others, I think LaMont Wade Jr was the only one both older than 27 and with more than 500 career ABs coming into the year. Just as an example, the 2024-2030 Red Sox could probably use another middle infielder and a right handed bat (ideally a DH/corner OF/Corner IF type). I'd love it if Bloom went out and acquired someone like Vaughn Grissom, Nolan Gorman, Edourard Julien (all three are probably wholly unrealistic). Or more realistically - targeted guys like Jo Adell, Justin Foscue (Rangers), choose your "blocked" Baltimore prospect (Mayo, Norby, Mayo I'd have said Westburg but he's probably unrealistic now), Thomas himself (only two years of control left, maybe Washington would listen).

I want him to go out and find / give chances to guys like that as opposed to signing players like Duvall, Turner (admitting he's been really good), Kluber, Martin (again, has been really good), re-signing Hernandez, continuing to play Arroyo and the like.


Edit - just looked at games played, not days on the calendar @JM3, so updated that to "less than 30 combined games at the high minor levels."

FWIW, I'm more than fine with having Chang on the roster, and if one wants to say Rafaela and Chang at the MI with Arroyo as utility until Story comes back, I'd be totally on board with that too. Nothing wrong with giving shots to a guy with around 500AB coming into the season that was an acceptable bat in the high minors (wRC+ of ish 110, but that is just eyeballing it). That's exactly the kind of thing I'm advocating for above. Difference being is when Story comes back, Arroyo would be the DFA guy (or traded, depending on timing) with Chang becoming your utility player.

 

[JM3]

My main takeaway from reviewing Bailey is that he's in for one heck of a regression. He also spent like 6 weeks in the high minors, not less than a month.

I would have agreed with your Ceddanne take more if it was CF that could really use a guy as he's already elite there, but I think his SS play is very exciting, but more error prone & Chang is a really good defensive SS.

Rafaela's AAA wRC+ is inflated by 6 home runs in 49 PAs, which isn't particularly sustainable, but has been fun to watch.

I would 100% rather see him be the every day SS than Kiké, but as that fortunately isn't the choice, I think it's good for him to be hitting at the top of the order every game in Worcester for now.

 

[Niastri]

Don’t you need to take into account talent- how good a prospect each individual is? Rushing Marcelo Mayer is different than rushing Enmanuel Valdez.

This is true in two ways.

One, Mayer is the better talent and more likely to succeed.

Two, if you promote Valdez too early and shatter his confidence, you really don't care. If you do the same with Mayer it's catastrophic.

 

[heavyde050]

My main takeaway from reviewing Bailey is that he's in for one heck of a regression. He also spent like 6 weeks in the high minors, not less than a month.

I would have agreed with your Ceddanne take more if it was CF that could really use a guy as he's already elite there, but I think his SS play is very exciting, but more error prone & Chang is a really good defensive SS.

Rafaela's AAA wRC+ is inflated by 6 home runs in 49 PAs, which isn't particularly sustainable, but has been fun to watch.

I would 100% rather see him be the every day SS than Kiké, but as that fortunately isn't the choice, I think it's good for him to be hitting at the top of the order every game in Worcester for now.

In fairness to Patrick Bailey, even if/when his bat regresses, his value behind the plate is more than major league ready. SSS and all, but he has been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball since his promotion.
https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/06/23/stat-of-the-week-patrick-bailey-is-a-defensive-difference-maker/

Edit - an additional article from Sports Illustrated - https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/news/sf-giants-rookie-power-rankings-patrick-bailey-casey-schmitt

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Rafaela... but if he was promoted right now, I'd put his defense at SS as less than Chang's and his offense as probably an equal. Sorry... but Rafaela still has too many weaknesses that would get him killed. And like Niastri posted a few upthread... he's a guy that you don't want to see him get twisted into knots trying to overcompensate for a bad showing in MLB and not being ever able to untwist himself.
If Story can get back, I think the ideal situation is him at 2B and Chang at SS with Arroyo giving them breaks. Kiké as late inning defensive CF'er/occasional middle infielder. Duvall is traded. He's the only one that would likely bring something back and is fully redundant. Kiké is cooked but still has good CF range and I'd rather see him out there in the 8th and 9th inning of a 1 or 2 run lead needing to prevent a single from turning into a double... or a tough hit dropping that Duran couldn't field.
Rafaela can start next season as Kiké's replacement and he'll still see a ton of plate apparances.

 

[JM3]

In fairness to Patrick Bailey, even if/when his bat regresses, his value behind the plate is more than major league ready. SSS and all, but he has been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball since his promotion.
https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/06/23/stat-of-the-week-patrick-bailey-is-a-defensive-difference-maker/

Edit - an additional article from Sports Illustrated - https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/news/sf-giants-rookie-power-rankings-patrick-bailey-casey-schmitt

Absolutely. The defense is definitely a carrying skill. I should have stated more clearly the comparison to Rafaela in that regard in CF but not necessarily at SS.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Absolutely. The defense is definitely a carrying skill. I should have stated more clearly the comparison to Rafaela in that regard in CF but not necessarily at SS.

I don't mean this as an "attack" in any way, I'm quoting you because I know you follow the minor leaguers very closely, and some others have stated this, so if there is a better site to quote / believe, you'll know it. Where did the idea that Rafaela can't be a good defensive player at a middle infield position come up?

I know he is projected to be an elite CF. However, quoting directly from Sox Prospects "(Rafaela) Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond" and "Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base." I always thought Andrews, Hatfield and those guys were the gold standard as far as information on players in the system but maybe they've fallen off and I am not aware. I'm going off the assumption that those guys are a heck of a lot smarter than I am, so I use their information. But maybe there is a better site to use, and if so, I'd be genuinely curious to know.

I think offensively Rafaela would bring more to the table (right now) than any of our current MIs - mostly because they're all unbelievably terrible - and I'm using the above to assume defensively he'd be better than pretty much anyone - because most of them are fine but don't strike me as "plus" defenders. Which isn't really a "dig" on Chang, he looks like pretty good defensive MI to me (which makes him better than anyone else currently in Boston), he was graded as a 45/45 fielder 50/50 arm as a prospect on Fangraphs and to this point has been a slightly above average defender while in Boston and Tampa the past two seasons, which seems about right.

However, reading SP, makes me think Rafaela would be a good bit better than that at SS or 2b, and I'm genuinely asking about what has changed / invalidated their take?

 

[JM3]

(Rafaela) Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond" and "Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base."

This can be 100% true, & he can still be significantly worse than Chang right now at SS as a 22 y/o who is still trying to live up to that potential while working through various things with his hitting approach.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

This can be 100% true, & he can still be significantly worse than Chang right now at SS as a 22 y/o who is still trying to live up to that potential while working through various things with his hitting approach.

I'm pretty sure (I can't find it though) that he (Rafaela) was actually really struggling at SS defense this season and had a lot of errors and noticeable diminished lateral range while in CF it was still considered "plus"

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm pretty sure (I can't find it though) that he (Rafaela) was actually really struggling at SS defense this season and had a lot of errors and noticeable diminished lateral range while in CF it was still considered "plus"

5 errors in 9 games/84 innings at SS for the SeaDogs, 0 errors in 3 games/24 innings for the WooSox. Hard to say if his play at short has been limited because of his defensive struggles or because there have been at least 2-3 other guys that play the position on the roster with him (Koss, McDonough, Mayer, Sogard, Hamilton between the two levels).

 

[grimshaw]

I know he is projected to be an elite CF. However, quoting directly from Sox Prospects "(Rafaela) Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond" and "Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base." I always thought Andrews, Hatfield and those guys were the gold standard as far as information on players in the system but maybe they've fallen off and I am not aware. I'm going off the assumption that those guys are a heck of a lot smarter than I am, so I use their information. But maybe there is a better site to use, and if so, I'd be genuinely curious to know.

However, reading SP, makes me think Rafaela would be a good bit better than that at SS or 2b, and I'm genuinely asking about what has changed / invalidated their take?

NM

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

5 errors in 9 games/84 innings at SS for the SeaDogs, 0 errors in 3 games/24 innings for the WooSox. Hard to say if his play at short has been limited because of his defensive struggles or because there have been at least 2-3 other guys that play the position on the roster with him (Koss, McDonough, Mayer, Sogard, Hamilton between the two levels).

So you're saying he's mastered SS defense at the higher of the two levels. I read you...


In all seriousness, thank you all for the insights. I wouldn't be advocating this nearly as much if the players that we were talking about replacing were literally even replacement level in terms of their performance. Arroyo and Hernandez have not been, Chang has been (combined) .1 bWAR this season. When you have other organizations that are moving players up either directly from AA or with less than a season combined between AA and AAA (and they're seen as good organizations and not ones that have zero clue what they're doing) I don't think its outlandish to suggest giving your top prospects a chance when the players they're replacing are literally below replacement level.

This all comes back to I want them to make a call to buy (intelligently) and if they're not going to be willing to spend some assets to replace the atrocity that is the middle infield and the current lets say 3, 4 and 5 spots in the rotation beyond "Oh, these guys will be healthy this time. We think. Probably", nor are they willing to let their best prospects come up and try and address the problem, then sell and sell hard. This means Turner, Paxton, Duvall, Hernandez, Arroyo and Martin. Three of them (Turner, Paxton and Martin) because you could quite likely move older players that are only here for one (or two) years for assets that could be good and in the system for 5 to 6 years.

 

[chawson]

I don't mean this as an "attack" in any way, I'm quoting you because I know you follow the minor leaguers very closely, and some others have stated this, so if there is a better site to quote / believe, you'll know it. Where did the idea that Rafaela can't be a good defensive player at a middle infield position come up?

I know he is projected to be an elite CF. However, quoting directly from Sox Prospects "(Rafaela) Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond" and "Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base." I always thought Andrews, Hatfield and those guys were the gold standard as far as information on players in the system but maybe they've fallen off and I am not aware. I'm going off the assumption that those guys are a heck of a lot smarter than I am, so I use their information. But maybe there is a better site to use, and if so, I'd be genuinely curious to know.

I think offensively Rafaela would bring more to the table (right now) than any of our current MIs - mostly because they're all unbelievably terrible - and I'm using the above to assume defensively he'd be better than pretty much anyone - because most of them are fine but don't strike me as "plus" defenders. Which isn't really a "dig" on Chang, he looks like pretty good defensive MI to me (which makes him better than anyone else currently in Boston), he was graded as a 45/45 fielder 50/50 arm as a prospect on Fangraphs and to this point has been a slightly above average defender while in Boston and Tampa the past two seasons, which seems about right.

However, reading SP, makes me think Rafaela would be a good bit better than that at SS or 2b, and I'm genuinely asking about what has changed / invalidated their take?

There are questions about the bat but all available evidence suggests Yu Chang is a very good defensive shortstop. He's +2 DRS and +3 OAA there in 111 innings. Admittedly a small sample, but its what we've got — and he really looks pretty sharp to me.

 

[TFisNEXT]

There are questions about the bat but all available evidence suggests Yu Chang is a very good defensive shortstop. He's +2 DRS and +3 OAA there in 111 innings. Admittedly a small sample, but its what we've got — and he really looks pretty sharp to me.

Chang only has 291 career innings at SS....and he has about 1400 innings overall in his career in the infield which is about what is normal for one season of a fulltime starter. But he's a cumulative +7 in DRS and +11 UZR in those 1400 innings....so he's certainly been a plus defender overall in his career. At age 27, this is probably what he is. A good defensive infielder who can't hit.

But it beats the hell out of a bad defensive infielder who also can't hit.