What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,680
Montgomery seems to me the most undervalued of the big FA starters. I don’t see an especially huge difference between him and Snell (and their birthdates are less than a month apart), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Snell gets $100M more.

2021-23
JM: 518 IP, 3.78 xFIP, 8.8 bWAR, 10.2 fWAR
BS: 436 IP, 3.54 xFIP, 9.6 bWAR, 9.8 fWAR
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
The Sox are currently at around $160M in salary commitments with Sale on the books. To get to $230M, that's roughly $70M in additional salary. I guess that could be three additional pitchers in the $20-30M range but two of them would have to be on the lower end. I'm not sure I see them doing that, at least not without also making a trade or two that could free up additional salary space.

As much as fans might want to see a complete overhaul of the rotation, I think they have too many existing options in-house to do that. One new starter seems a lock. Two is definitely in the realm of possibility. Three just seems like too much. We'd be wise to temper our expectations for the off-season.
That's pretty much why I was asking. I think that trying to add 3 guys in that range pretty much precludes you from anything else. I've always been of the mind that 2 is the likely number and have advocated that one of those guys come via trade if possible. If they are able to outbid other suitors for Yamamota that likely takes all of $30M per, maybe more. If it's more, all of a sudden the cost of everyone else gets bumped in either $$$, years or both.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,077
The Sox are currently at around $160M in salary commitments with Sale on the books. To get to $230M, that's roughly $70M in additional salary. I guess that could be three additional pitchers in the $20-30M range but two of them would have to be on the lower end. I'm not sure I see them doing that, at least not without also making a trade or two that could free up additional salary space.

As much as fans might want to see a complete overhaul of the rotation, I think they have too many existing options in-house to do that. One new starter seems a lock. Two is definitely in the realm of possibility. Three just seems like too much. We'd be wise to temper our expectations for the off-season.
The bottom line on this post is mostly right - they have $70m to $80m to spend - but that $160m doesn't include likely arbitration awards & pre-arb minimums, & the applicable tax threshold for this year should be the $277m # not the $237m one.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
941
Montgomery seems to me the most undervalued of the big FA starters. I don’t see an especially huge difference between him and Snell (and their birthdates are less than a month apart), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Snell gets $100M more.

2021-23
JM: 518 IP, 3.78 xFIP, 8.8 bWAR, 10.2 fWAR
BS: 436 IP, 3.54 xFIP, 9.6 bWAR, 9.8 fWAR

Snell has the following numbers per nine innings this year: 5.8 hits, 5.0 walks, 11.7 strike outs.

That hits/9 has been between 7 and 8 over the last 4 seasons. His strike out rate has been pretty consistent and the walk rates have always been high but not this high. He had a similarly great year in 2018 with the Rays. He's turning 31 this winter and, until this year [edit], has not thrown over 130 innings since that 2018 season. You might remember last year the Padres were reportedly shopping him due to frustration about his lack of production.

Those walks+age+weird career trajectory make Snell look like a big red flag to me. Which is a long way of saying I agree that Montgomery will likely be the better signing.
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,680
That's pretty much why I was asking. I think that trying to add 3 guys in that range pretty much precludes you from anything else. I've always been of the mind that 2 is the likely number and have advocated that one of those guys come via trade if possible. If they are able to outbid other suitors for Yamamota that likely takes all of $30M per, maybe more. If it's more, all of a sudden the cost of everyone else gets bumped in either $$$, years or both.
Two but then a third could come in a creative deal for a rehabbing arm, like Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas.

Or even James Paxton, whose condition we know better than anyone at this point. It's hard to guess at what they're going to do, but I don't think it's possible to add three starters better than Houck or Paxton without spending like $500M.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,680
Snell has the following numbers per nine innings this year: 5.8 hits, 5.0 walks, 11.7 strike outs.

That hits/9 has been between 7 and 8 over the last 4 seasons. His strike out rate has been pretty consistent and the walk rates have always been high but not this high. He had a similarly great year in 2018 with the Rays. He's turning 31 this winter and has not thrown over 130 innings since that 2018 season. You might remember last year the Padres were reportedly shopping him due to frustration about his lack of production.

Those walks+age+weird career trajectory make Snell look like a big red flag to me. Which is a long way of saying I agree that Montgomery will likely be the better signing.
Agree. Snell is like 2019 Brandon Workman but as a starter. I'm not interested.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,567
I'm very bullish on Winkelman, as he's really improved his weakest part of his game (BB's) this past season. I can see him as a late season addition (hoping he starts in AAA or makes it there a month or so in) if there's a rotation injury or as a relief arm in '24 but I'm already penciling him into the rotation for '25.

2024
Yamamoto (The Sox, IMO, need Yamamoto more than almost any other team after the last two seasons) 10 year contract
Montgomery
Bello
Houck
Pivetta/Sale

2025
Yamamoto
Montgomery
Bello
Houck
Gonzalez

2026
Yamamoto
Montgomery
Bello
Gonzalez
Peralez
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,262
I'm very bullish on Winkelman, as he's really improved his weakest part of his game (BB's) this past season. I can see him as a late season addition (hoping he starts in AAA or makes it there a month or so in) if there's a rotation injury or as a relief arm in '24 but I'm already penciling him into the rotation for '25.

2024
Yamamoto (The Sox, IMO, need Yamamoto more than almost any other team after the last two seasons) 10 year contract
Montgomery
Bello
Houck
Pivetta/Sale

2025
Yamamoto
Montgomery
Bello
Houck
Gonzalez

2026
Yamamoto
Montgomery
Bello
Gonzalez
Peralez
I like Wikelman a lot too, but I don't think the bolded is quite true, sadly. If anything, the walks were better in 2022. However you want to slice them, he's still walking north of 5 per 9 innings. On the other hand, a K rate of 15/9 is so insane it would be impossible not to be excited.

71495

Monegro also isn't far behind him and his BB rate was better this year on the whole and when compared to where Wikelman was last year in A ball. I would call the difference significant.
71496

Both of them have electric stuff, obviously.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,121
I like Wikelman a lot too, but I don't think the bolded is quite true, sadly. If anything, the walks were better in 2022. However you want to slice them, he's still walking north of 5 per 9 innings. On the other hand, a K rate of 15/9 is so insane it would be impossible not to be excited.

View attachment 71495

Monegro also isn't far behind him and his BB rate was better this year on the whole and when compared to where Wikelman was last year in A ball. I would call the difference significant.
View attachment 71496

Both of them have electric stuff, obviously.
Wikleman is also very small. Probably more like 5'10 than 6 feet and those guys just don't really exist as starting pitchers. As a reference, Bello is significantly bigger than him.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Two but then a third could come in a creative deal for a rehabbing arm, like Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas.

Or even James Paxton, whose condition we know better than anyone at this point. It's hard to guess at what they're going to do, but I don't think it's possible to add three starters better than Houck or Paxton without spending like $500M.
Without doubt and that's fine, but that's a different discussion. Any of these types are likely going to have to be a MiL signing as it's going to be tough to find an open spot on the 40 man given the current makeup.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,623
Two but then a third could come in a creative deal for a rehabbing arm, like Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas.

Or even James Paxton, whose condition we know better than anyone at this point. It's hard to guess at what they're going to do, but I don't think it's possible to add three starters better than Houck or Paxton without spending like $500M.
Here's an interesting question: if we get a third starter, do we want a rehabbing guy with big upside who likely hits an innings limit, or a Gibson/Mikolas type who's below average but gives us ~190 IP?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,567
I like Wikelman a lot too, but I don't think the bolded is quite true, sadly. If anything, the walks were better in 2022. However you want to slice them, he's still walking north of 5 per 9 innings. On the other hand, a K rate of 15/9 is so insane it would be impossible not to be excited.

View attachment 71495

Monegro also isn't far behind him and his BB rate was better this year on the whole and when compared to where Wikelman was last year in A ball. I would call the difference significant.
View attachment 71496

Both of them have electric stuff, obviously.
I apologize.... for some reason I was really thinking his BB rate significantly decreased this past season. I don't have the time right now to check game logs... perhaps it was over the year (starting high and reducing it slowly towards the end of the season?).
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,077
Wikleman is also very small. Probably more like 5'10 than 6 feet and those guys just don't really exist as starting pitchers. As a reference, Bello is significantly bigger than him.
Not sure if you have inside information or something, but he's listed at 6' everywhere (compared to Bello at 6'1). & even if he was 5'10, there are plenty of guys like that who "exist as starting pitchers".

Marcus Stroman is listed at 5'8. Pedro was listed at 5'11.

...heck Yamamoto is 5'10.

Tim Lincecum was 5'11, Johnny Cueto is 5'10, etc.

There's a fair chance Wikelman won't be one of them because he still needs to improve his secondaries, command & control, but I don't see his frame as being disqualifying.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,179
Alamogordo
Snell has the following numbers per nine innings this year: 5.8 hits, 5.0 walks, 11.7 strike outs.

That hits/9 has been between 7 and 8 over the last 4 seasons. His strike out rate has been pretty consistent and the walk rates have always been high but not this high. He had a similarly great year in 2018 with the Rays. He's turning 31 this winter and, until this year [edit], has not thrown over 130 innings since that 2018 season. You might remember last year the Padres were reportedly shopping him due to frustration about his lack of production.

Those walks+age+weird career trajectory make Snell look like a big red flag to me. Which is a long way of saying I agree that Montgomery will likely be the better signing.
Snell might be the pitcher most helped by his home stadium + defense behind him in the entire league. A .256 BABIP is ludicrous, and has him at 5th in the league among SP. His HR rate is half what it was in Tampa.

I will be furious if he is the pitcher the Sox spend big on this offseason.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,262
I apologize.... for some reason I was really thinking his BB rate significantly decreased this past season. I don't have the time right now to check game logs... perhaps it was over the year (starting high and reducing it slowly towards the end of the season?).
Hey, no problem. I've gotten more stuff wrong on here than many.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,121
Not sure if you have inside information or something, but he's listed at 6' everywhere (compared to Bello at 6'1). & even if he was 5'10, there are plenty of guys like that who "exist as starting pitchers".

Marcus Stroman is listed at 5'8. Pedro was listed at 5'11.

...heck Yamamoto is 5'10.

Tim Lincecum was 5'11, Johnny Cueto is 5'10, etc.

There's a fair chance Wikelman won't be one of them because he still needs to improve his secondaries, command & control, but I don't see his frame as being disqualifying.
The Soxprospects guys mention it every time they speak about him. He is no where near 6 feet and much slighter than Stroman. Stroman is the only current legit starting pitcher that size. Its very uncommon and a legit concern
 

RS2004foreever

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2022
766
I'm very bullish on Winkelman, as he's really improved his weakest part of his game (BB's) this past season. I can see him as a late season addition (hoping he starts in AAA or makes it there a month or so in) if there's a rotation injury or as a relief arm in '24 but I'm already penciling him into the rotation for '25.

2024
Yamamoto (The Sox, IMO, need Yamamoto more than almost any other team after the last two seasons) 10 year contract
Montgomery
Bello
Houck
Pivetta/Sale
Not sure how Crawford fits in here. If that was the '23 Red Sox rotation they would have made the playoffs. It would certainly make them contenders in '24.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,077
The Soxprospects guys mention it every time they speak about him. He is no where near 6 feet and much slighter than Stroman. Stroman is the only current legit starting pitcher that size. Its very uncommon and a legit concern
They should probably update their own stuff where they list him at 6' then (not that it's the only place where it's listed that way). Why would Wikelman's height be listed wrong everywhere, though, & other shorter pitchers all have their exact correct heights listed?

Here are some other current starting pitchers whose heights are listed as the same or lower than Wikelman:

Spencer Strider (6'0) - 5.4 fWAR
Sonny Gray (5'10) - 5.2 fWAR
Framber Valdez (5'11) - 4.4 fWAR
Jesus Luzardo (6'0) - 3.3 fWAR
Freddy Peralta (5'11) - 3.1 fWAR
Jose Berrios (6'0) - 2.9 fWAR
Marcus Stroman (5'7) - 2.8 fWAR
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,736
There's a fair chance Wikelman won't be one of them because he still needs to improve his secondaries, command & control, but I don't see his frame as being disqualifying.
Yeah, I still think the command/control issues lead to Gonzalez being a bullpen arm. But he could be a weapon out there with the heat.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,077

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,220
Bangkok
That's pretty much why I was asking. I think that trying to add 3 guys in that range pretty much precludes you from anything else. I've always been of the mind that 2 is the likely number and have advocated that one of those guys come via trade if possible. If they are able to outbid other suitors for Yamamota that likely takes all of $30M per, maybe more. If it's more, all of a sudden the cost of everyone else gets bumped in either $$$, years or both.
Historically there’s just no reason that we would run a $230m payroll because that would equate to a #6 or #7 team next year. That’s the basis for saying that we’ll be aggressive this offseason. I agree with JM3 that for next year at least, the upper limit is $270m. That allows for extensions for Casas and Bello, and three starting pitchers. One long term deal for Snell/Yamamoto and two shorter deals (2-3 years) for ERod/Gray types.

If Mayer, Anthony and Yorke are up by the end of next year, there’s payroll room to give them all extensions, although I think Yorke is traded unless Story has another bad year.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Historically there’s just no reason that we would run a $230m payroll because that would equate to a #6 or #7 team next year. That’s the basis for saying that we’ll be aggressive this offseason. I agree with JM3 that for next year at least, the upper limit is $270m. That allows for extensions for Casas and Bello, and three starting pitchers. One long term deal for Snell/Yamamoto and two shorter deals (2-3 years) for ERod/Gray types.

If Mayer, Anthony and Yorke are up by the end of next year, there’s payroll room to give them all extensions, although I think Yorke is traded unless Story has another bad year.
Why would ERod opt out of the final 3 years of his current contract to sign a new 2-3 year deal?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,233
I haven't seen this mentioned in here yet, but Heyman (so obviously taken with a grain of salt) suggests that Nola "might not approach the 6yr / $162m deal (for) Carlos Rodon...but he should fare well." (https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/veteran-mlb-insider-links-red-sox-as-possible-fit-for-former-all-star-pitcher-pat3).

If Nola could be had for something along the lines of 6/$150m, I would hope the Red Sox would be all over that.

Even in his "bad seasons" (2021 and 2023) he still takes the mound 30 times, goes around 6ip each time, and has an ERA around 4.50 (with xFIPs closer to 3.50) and per FG at least has been worth more than $30m each of those seasons. If this season has brought down his contract to that area, and Heyman's projection is at all close, that would be a great fit and probably the name I'd target the most. Obviously a big "if" there.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,521
Agree- Nola is a better and more durable pitcher than Gausman was when the latter got 5/110. If you can get Nola for around 5-6 years at under $25 AAV, that seems like a pretty fair deal.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,077
If DD is letting Nola go, one can only assume he is irreparably broken.

But he's interesting. Regaining his velocity in the 2nd half of the season seems like a good sign that he's not actually currently broken.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,233
If DD is letting Nola go, one can only assume he is irreparably broken.

But he's interesting. Regaining his velocity in the 2nd half of the season seems like a good sign that he's not actually currently broken.
Possibly. Tbough off the top of my head, DDski did in fact let Scherzer go (Det to Wash) and let Price go (well, traded him to Toronto, like a week before he was fired).

Agree about his post season playing a big role @bosockboy. But if Nola can be had anywhere in the 6yrs $150m to $175m (assume he pitches well but not Beckett in 2003/2007 well in the playoffs), that is someone I’d feel really good about at the front of the Red Sox staff.

He‘s not an ACE, but I think of him as an SP1, if that makes sense.
 

donutogre

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,250
Philadelphia
…that feels too weird to be real. I know Speier is real but like…who the hell has ever said anything like this the entire offseason ahead of time?
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
…that feels too weird to be real. I know Speier is real but like…who the hell has ever said anything like this the entire offseason ahead of time?
My guess is that the word "announced" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I would think whatever Cora said was in response to being asked the question. That said giving such an answer seems a bit defiant (not sure if that is the best word to use) considering the uncertainty of the organization and the pitching staff moving into the '24 season.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,611
…that feels too weird to be real. I know Speier is real but like…who the hell has ever said anything like this the entire offseason ahead of time?
Clicks... Sale would be the starter if we dont make any SP moves.... But thankfully the offseason has not even started yet
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I think it’s a nothingburger. The Sox can sign Yamamoto, Nola, and trade for Burnes, and none of them would complain if Sale got Opening Day in his final year with the team. In fact, it would keep Cora from having to decide among the new guys. He didn’t say he’s penciling him in for 30 starts, just marking him down, 6 months in advance, for 1. Whatever..
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,233
Also, not for nothing, but even in years where the Sox did make big additions to the pitching staff, that guy didn't always get the ball on opening day.

In 2017, Porcello got the ball in game 1 (Sale, acquired in the off-season, went in game 2).

Lackey came on board in 2010 and went game 2.

Matsuzaka was added before 2007, and he went in game 3.

Beckett was acquired before 2006 and went in the third game.

Schilling went in game 2 in 2004.

The two big additions in that time to come over in the off-season and take the ball opening day were Price in 2016 and Pedro in 1998.

Plus, Sale will probably be hurt already anyway.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,076
Miami (oh, Miami!)
It's also Cora possibly firing a warning shot at the Bloom replacement
"I'm coming back, and these sort of calls are mine to make."

as opposed to:

"Wow, you know we're still focused on wining games this season [lie], and it's a long off-season. [If asked specifically about Sale.] But I'll tell you this much, Chris is a professional, and a competitor, and he fought his way back to pitch for us. So I think it's always hard to argue against a healthy Chris Sale opening for the club."
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,508
Scituate, MA
Cora was asked his opinion of Sale down the stretch and said he wants him to be his opening day starter next year. It could have been a tongue in cheek comment, it could have been very targeted. To me it felt like how he was saying that Pedroia was going to surprise some people when he came back and then never really came back.

In other words, yes Cora said it, but I wouldn't read too much into it.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,323
Nick Pivetta should not be traded. As it turns out, he ends up being the Sox most valuable pitcher.
If only he didn't stink so badly early in the season that he pitched his way out of our not-very-good rotation. If he's your most valuable pitcher, you know you've got problems.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,567
If only he didn't stink so badly early in the season that he pitched his way out of our not-very-good rotation. If he's your most valuable pitcher, you know you've got problems.
Wasn’t arguing otherwise…. But he still needs to be considered as a starter next year. Hopefully as a no.5/6 with Sale including two new starters, Bello and one of Houck/Crawford. He provides almost a guaranteed full year of health which nobody else can.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,680
Nick Pivetta should not be traded. As it turns out, he ends up being the Sox most valuable pitcher.
By which measure?

I’ll again go on record to say that Pivetta should be traded—especially now that he’s rebuilt his value as a swingman.

If plans to acquire starters come to fruition, we’ll already have three multi-inning relievers in the pen (Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski), with Murphy, Walter and Mata as potentials to join them, plus Crawford as a notional #5.

We’ve got him one more year, and not really at a discount. Personality stuff aside, he’s in the same boat as Verdugo for me. He’s not a candidate to extend and we’ve got ready replacements for his role, so we may as well get some value for him in a trade.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,047
Maine
By which measure?
Most valuable might be a stretch, but he's finishing with a lot of comparable numbers to the one guy everyone agrees is a lock for the 2024 rotation.

157 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.338 WHIP, 2.93 K/BB, 7.6 K/9, 107 ERA+
135.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.157 WHIP, 3.53 K/BB, 11.5 K/9, 107 ERA+
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
8,072
Boston, MA
By which measure?
He had the second most innings, most strikeouts, second lowest WHIP after Chris Martin, and lowest ERA of the starters. He was probably the second best pitcher on the team behind Martin and threw 90 more innings.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,521
For a team that was desperate for innings, it seems kind of silly that Pivetta wasn’t just left in the rotation all year. He’s durable. He threw 44 less innings (fewer?) than last year. Then again, he had a 5 ERA as a starter. His overall numbers are being skewed by his dominance out of the pen.