What does the Red Sox DH look like in 2024?

simplicio

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Justin Turner leaving opens up a pretty big hole in the roster in my mind. A good right-handed bat with the ability to fill in on the corners was pretty much exactly what we needed this year (and now need again). So what's the best way to replace that?

In-house options:
Masataka Yoshida
Raphael Devers

These are our good hitters who were terrible on defense this year. Both just going into the second year of their sizable contracts, it feels a shame to give up on their fielding entirely, and neither can give us the RHB or the 1B backup we're missing. Masa could be replaced easily enough cause we kinda have too many OF as is, but Raffy would create another hole that would be expensive to fill well unless we want to have Pablo Reyes, starting 3B (we don't).

In-house option (AAA):
Bobby Dalbec

He's a RHB under control who can spell the corners, but he's bad defensively and even worse as a hitter. This would be a terrible outcome.

In-house option (the bench):
Refsnyder/Reyes/Abreu/McGuire/Rafaela?

This is less than inspiring.

Justin Turner:
Justin Turner (MLBTR projection: 1/$16)

He's kind of exactly what we need, he's shown he can thrive in Boston and was seemingly beloved in the clubhouse. The obvious downside is he'll be 39 next year and showed some signs of slowing. The upside of his age is we probably aren't competing against teams willing to give him full time position player money. His MLBTR projection is exactly what he got this year after the buyout and incentives, and I think the $14-16m range is fair.

Other FA:
Mitch Garver (3/$39)
Rhys Hopkins (2/$36)
Jorge Soler (3/$45)
JD Martinez (2/$40)

Garver is interesting to me; he's been a bad backup catcher but a very good hitter with a career 123 WRC+. He also had a few starts at 1B in his Minnesota days, though obviously they'd need to be comfortable with him doing that on a more regular basis if we're talking the main Casas backup. But the idea of a DH/backup 1B/keep us from ever fielding an Alfaro if one of the catchers goes down role is pretty intriguing. That seems well worth $13mm. The issue with him is that he just can't stay on the field; he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2018, averaging about 71 per (non-2020) season for his career. He'll be 33 so it's hard to project him for better health, but maybe they could wring more out of him by pulling him off C almost entirely?

Rhys Hoskins is another very good hitter (126 WRC+ career) and bad 1B. He'll be 31 so not old, but I also think he's a guy somebody pays as a primary 1B for more than he's worth as a primary DH.

Jorge Soler is probably the worst hitter (112 WRC+) of the FA I'm listing, plus he he's a bad outfielder instead of a bad infielder so that doesn't really fill the corner backup role, but I also wouldn't be sad to have him hitting for us if his market craters and we get a bargain on him. He was DHing about 3/4 of his games this year, which corresponded with a nice offensive uptick (126 WRC+, after 3 straight years of just about average).

JD is a known quantity who obviously had a big resurgence in LA, but doesn't back up anything, lost even more time to injury this year than last and showed an alarming jump to a 31% K rate. Will he be a good hitter? Probably. Is he worth the projected $20mm/year for us as a pure DH? I can't see how.


How do you all see them filling the spot?
Are there trade targets that make sense?
 

simplicio

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I will say that the non-Turner options look a bit more enticing if we can trade for Brandon Drury (who can back up both corners) or Polanco (back up 3B) as a primary 2B.
 

Margo McCready

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If I was playing MLB: The Show and our current outfielders end up making the opening day roster, Yoshida is my primary DH. Duran, Rafaela, O’Neil, and Abreu all get roughly equal playing time. Two LH and two RH hitters, deployed playing up daily platoon advantages and riding the hot hand if and when that’s a thing. Duran plays LF and some CF, Rafaela mostly CF, O’Neil mostly RF, and Abreu bounces between LF and RF. Yoshida fills in some LF innings when you wanna semi-rest Devers and Casas with DH at bats. Refsnyder fills in the rest of the gaps vs. LHP.
 

6-5 Sadler

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One guy I’ve been thinking about is Byron Buxton. Last year was kind of a lost year for him as he battled knee issues and was relegated to full-time DH. He had off-season surgery to clean up his knee and the Twins are hopeful he can return to playing the outfield next year.

When he’s been on the field (granted this hasn’t been frequently), he’s a really productive player, producing fWAR of 4.1, 4.0, and 0.7 the past 3 years. Note that he has only had around 900 plate appearances total in that time.

So why would the Twins entertain trading him? They were part of the Diamond Sports Group and their GM has already said they cannot run the same payroll as last year. Unfortunately for them, they have limited options to trim payroll as some of their contracts are heavily under water (Correa, Vazquez) which leaves them with Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler as the only moveable $10M+ players

Buxton has 5/$75M remaining on his contract which is expensive but not onerous. BTV has it as a negative contract but that might be overly weighing his mediocre performance last year. He turns 30 in a few days and Fangraphs projects him to deliver 2.3 WAR next year as a DH.

For the Red Sox, he has the ideal hitting profile as a right handed, extreme pull/fly ball hitter. He can get split time across LF (hoping the smaller area to cover can help preserve his knees), DH, and CF (limited capacity spelling Duran). There are certainly other cheaper DH options on the market but none come with the upside of Buxton.
 
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simplicio

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Buxton has a full no trade, so I don't know if we could get him at all.

I think I still like Garver better anyway? With guys as frequently injured as them, committing to fewer years seems pretty valuable, and his skillset feels like a better match for what we're missing.
 

iddoc

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If I was playing MLB: The Show and our current outfielders end up making the opening day roster, Yoshida is my primary DH. Duran, Rafaela, O’Neil, and Abreu all get roughly equal playing time. Two LH and two RH hitters, deployed playing up daily platoon advantages and riding the hot hand if and when that’s a thing. Duran plays LF and some CF, Rafaela mostly CF, O’Neil mostly RF, and Abreu bounces between LF and RF. Yoshida fills in some LF innings when you wanna semi-rest Devers and Casas with DH at bats. Refsnyder fills in the rest of the gaps vs. LHP.
I have been thinking along the same lines. Can Refsnyder play 1B? He seems athletic enough to do that, especially as a former infielder (albeit not a good one), and could spell Casas occasionally vs LHP. Dalbec could do that too; but he is hopeless vs RHP; and there may not be enough for both of them on the roster.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Buxton has a full no trade, so I don't know if we could get him at all.

I think I still like Garver better anyway? With guys as frequently injured as them, committing to fewer years seems pretty valuable, and his skillset feels like a better match for what we're missing.
Garver can rake, but he only caught 28 games last year and 14 in 2022, and he turns 33 in a month. I doubt he plays much more catcher going forward. He seems like he is getting into his Mike Napoli years now. Still a good hitter and a good choice for a pure DH if you need one but I don't think he would play enough games at catcher to be your only backup. And we have plenty of DH types already. If we want to improve the defense and rotate Devers, Yoshida and Casas at DH somewhat frequently, then if we add another bat it needs to be someone who can cover a position or two in the field.

For example Turner seems like he can still back up third and first. A guy like JD Martinez can't really play a position anymore so he wouldn't fit. The question on Garver is about if and where you could play him in the field.

Garver has only played 51 innings in the majors at first base. If they think he could back up first base and also catch 40+ games decently, he would be a really good pickup but that seems to be questionable.

He also might want a fulltime starting job, which some teams might be able to give him but we shouldn't.

That bat at part time catcher is fun to think about though.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I have been thinking along the same lines. Can Refsnyder play 1B? He seems athletic enough to do that, especially as a former infielder (albeit not a good one), and could spell Casas occasionally vs LHP. Dalbec could do that too; but he is hopeless vs RHP; and there may not be enough for both of them on the roster.
I’m sure he can, but do we want a 1b with a career .342 slugging? Seems like the team could do better with that roster spot.
 

6-5 Sadler

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Buxton has a full no trade, so I don't know if we could get him at all.

I think I still like Garver better anyway? With guys as frequently injured as them, committing to fewer years seems pretty valuable, and his skillset feels like a better match for what we're missing.
Ahh that’s a good point on the NTC and something I hadn’t considered. It’s probably a moot point but if they can sell him on coming to Boston it’s an intriguing combination of offensive upside and positional versatility. It’s risky for sure but I don’t know if some other the DH-only options (Garver/Turner/etc) move the needle much for us. Said differently, I think we need to increase our risk profile if we are serious about competing this year and Buxton hitting his 75th/90th percentile projections would go a long way to achieving that outcome.
 

simplicio

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Garver can rake, but he only caught 28 games last year and 14 in 2022, and he turns 33 in a month. I doubt he plays much more catcher going forward. He seems like he is getting into his Mike Napoli years now. Still a good hitter and a good choice for a pure DH if you need one but I don't think he would play enough games at catcher to be your only backup. And we have plenty of DH types already. If we want to improve the defense and rotate Devers, Yoshida and Casas at DH somewhat frequently, then if we add another bat it needs to be someone who can cover a position or two in the field.

For example Turner seems like he can still back up third and first. A guy like JD Martinez can't really play a position anymore so he wouldn't fit. The question on Garver is about if and where you could play him in the field.

Garver has only played 51 innings in the majors at first base. If they think he could back up first base and also catch 40+ games decently, he would be a really good pickup but that seems to be questionable.

He also might want a fulltime starting job, which some teams might be able to give him but we shouldn't.

That bat at part time catcher is fun to think about though.
As I mentioned in the OP, I think a Garver signing only makes sense if he becomes your backup 1B, with a bonus that he can still catch a bit if Wong or McGuire go down. If he actually replaces McGuire I think that's begging for Caleb Hamilton redux, just because he has such a hard time starting healthy.
 

Rovin Romine

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I’m sure he can, but do we want a 1b with a career .342 slugging? Seems like the team could do better with that roster spot.
At the end of the day though, we don't have to have a dedicated DH. I mean, if you have a premium bat on a fielding-challenged player, that's great. But you can also use it as a rotating slot.

I'd like to see something like the Verdugo/ONeil move with Valdez for a bit more redundancy/depth. Trade him for a RHH version with fewer years of control. He had a 103 OPS+. That may not be your ideal DH, but for a guy with at least a partial fielding role on a club with Yoshida on it, its adequate.

Justin Turner had a 114 OPS+ To calibrate that, Yoshida had 109, while 6 other players (including Abreu in a SSS) were higher than Turner.
 

simplicio

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My issue with a rotating DH is you're then replacing Turner's 114 OPS+ with whatever you can get off the bench. Is there any way that's not a downgrade?
 

nvalvo

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My issue with a rotating DH is you're then replacing Turner's 114 OPS+ with whatever you can get off the bench. Is there any way that's not a downgrade?
Yes?

Let’s say Yoshida takes 60 or 70 games of your road DH PAs and posts a 120 OPS+, i.e. between his first and second half figures. You likely step back on LF offense in those games, but get a big improvement on defense by playing Duran or O’Neill or Abreu in LF.

Then in the remaining games, you rotate through other players, getting guys off their feet for a game and matching up with Refsnyder (2023 OPS vs LH: .828) and Valdez (2023 OPS vs RH: .806), both of whom have great splits. Dalbec is also a possibility versus LHP if he’s on the roster. And if you can add a lefty bat comparable to Valdez but with more defensive value (maybe just by improving Valdez’ defense), even better.

Personally, I’d like to add Rhys Hoskins (career OPS+ of 125, elite against LHP) to get 450 PA as a DH/1B/LF even if it’s a bit of a splurge. But it shouldn’t be impossible to replace a 114 OPS+ (Turner got to that number with a .800 OPS) with a platoon, even with what we have in house.
 

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Personally, I’d like to add Rhys Hoskins (career OPS+ of 125, elite against LHP) to get 450 PA as a DH/1B/LF even if it’s a bit of a splurge. But it shouldn’t be impossible to replace a 114 OPS+ (Turner got to that number with a .800 OPS) with a platoon, even with what we have in house.
It might be attractive to us, but would this be attractive to him? He was a left fielder in 2018 and has been a first baseman since.
 

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He didn’t receive a QO. The various FA estimates mostly predict him at like 1/$12m. We could beat that by a healthy margin.
Sure, but I guess my questions remain, 1--Is he a guy worth a significant overpay? Maybe. and 2--would he be okay shifting positions during a season like he never has in his career. Maybe.
Obviously, a lot would also depend on what other offers he gets, both dollars and position.
 

simplicio

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He didn’t receive a QO. The various FA estimates mostly predict him at like 1/$12m. We could beat that by a healthy margin.
MLBTR's 2/36 seems more accurate to me, I think someone pays him 1B money a la Jose Abreu last year.

Not receiving a QO is probably more a function of having Harper at 1B (and Schwarber DH) than actual valuation.
 

6-5 Sadler

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It’s probably less of a question of would he want to play LF and more of a question of would we want to play him there? In 2018, he was worth -19 DRS and -17 OAA in 1172 LF innings. For comparison, last year Yoshida was worth -4 DRS and -8 OAA in 713 innings.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If he signs a one year deal, I suspect he will want a team that can give him consistent playing time, in the field, ideally. Don’t see how that’s the Sox. I’d be interested in him on a multi-year deal but not sure that’s what he’d want.
 

moondog80

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My issue with a rotating DH is you're then replacing Turner's 114 OPS+ with whatever you can get off the bench. Is there any way that's not a downgrade?
But in theory it would payoff in other ways -- better rested players, more lineup flexibility.
 

iddoc

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I’m sure he can, but do we want a 1b with a career .342 slugging? Seems like the team could do better with that roster spot.
I agree…this was more in the spirit of what to do with what we have now. Maybe Mitch Garver, as others are speculating, if he can play some 1B (cue the Moneyball Ron Washington reference).
 

chawson

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Hoskins' bat is a good fit but I'd lean Garver, since I think he helps at C or possibly 1B more than we'd need Hoskins in the field.
 

YTF

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One guy I’ve been thinking about is Byron Buxton. Last year was kind of a lost year for him as he battled knee issues and was relegated to full-time DH. He had off-season surgery to clean up his knee and the Twins are hopeful he can return to playing the outfield next year.

When he’s been on the field (granted this hasn’t been frequently), he’s a really productive player, producing fWAR of 4.1, 4.0, and 0.7 the past 3 years. Note that he has only had around 900 plate appearances total in that time.

So why would the Twins entertain trading him? They were part of the Diamond Sports Group and their GM has already said they cannot run the same payroll as last year. Unfortunately for them, they have limited options to trim payroll as some of their contracts are heavily under water (Correa, Vazquez) which leaves them with Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler as the only moveable $10M+ players

Buxton has 5/$75M remaining on his contract which is expensive but not onerous. BTV has it as a negative contract but that might be overly weighing his mediocre performance last year. He turns 30 in a few days and Fangraphs projects him to deliver 2.3 WAR next year as a DH.

For the Red Sox, he has the ideal hitting profile as a right handed, extreme pull/fly ball hitter. He can get split time across LF (hoping the smaller area to cover can help preserve his knees), DH, and CF (limited capacity spelling Duran). There are certainly other cheaper DH options on the market but none come with the upside of Buxton.
You say that last year was sort of a lost year due to injury, but Buxton has missed a lot of games in his career. He played in a career high 140 games in 2017, since then ...
2018 - 28
2019 - 87
2020 - 39 (60 game season)
2021 - 61
2022 - 92
2023 - 85
 

6-5 Sadler

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You say that last year was sort of a lost year due to injury, but Buxton has missed a lot of games in his career. He played in a career high 140 games in 2017, since then ...
2018 - 28
2019 - 87
2020 - 39 (60 game season)
2021 - 61
2022 - 92
2023 - 85
The injury history is staggering…not just the frequency but the breadth of injury. He’s had head problems (migraines, concussions), broken bones (toe, hand), soft tissue injuries (strained/strained hip, hamstring, foot, groin, wrist), dislocations (shoulder), back issues over multiple seasons, and now this knee issue that required a cleanup procedure this off-season. It’s difficult to find a part of the body he hasn’t injured. He is truly the real life Mr Glass.
 

twibnotes

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I hate the idea of acquiring another player who will play DH even some of the time. The problem we have is that we may already have too many DHs (Yoshi, Devers, Casas). We need defense in the worst way and get one of those guys off the field.