What does the Red Sox outfield look like in 2024?

Benj4ever

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He’s been so hot and then so cold, it’s hard to know what he actually is…. You’d hate to bet on him and this season from early May until three weeks ago is his outlier and he’s more like the ‘22 version.
I’d hold onto him. If Verdugo extends then you can think about trading Abreu or him.
On the flip side, I wouldn't want to bet against him, either. But, yeah, he is very streaky.
 

moondog80

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The best FA outfielders this year are Jung-Hoo Lee, Teoscar Hernandez, and Joc Pederson. That bodes well for Duvall, who will be 35 and has made "only" 24 million in his career. Give him the QO, he turns it down and signs 3/48 somewhere else.

(I like Lee for the Sox, BTW. But that's another story.)
 

billy ashley

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Duran's a nice player, and I'm certainly happy to have him penciled in as the starting CF next year, but if someone values him as an emerging borderline all star, they should trade him.

The big leap Duran's made this year is on defense. The fact that he's turned himself into an average CF is remarkable and praiseworthy. Offensively though, I think a lot of folks are seeing the 120 wRC+ and ignoring the underlying metrics that suggest he's probably a slightly below average hitter.

69905

The K rate and BB rate are not good but he's an exceptional athlete. I think most likely, we're looking at a guy who can play center field andis about a league average-ish hitter.

That's super valuable. I'm thrilled with the outcome. But yeah, i someone thinks he's more than that,if they buy that he's really a 120 WrC+ guy, for example, I think I'd be okay with a trade.
 

TFisNEXT

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Duran is typically going to play above his xSLG because he’s in the top 5% of the speed metrics. The xSLG tries to account for speed but when you read up on it, it seems to consistently undershoot the very top speed guys (esp top 5%) like Duran because they just convert more singles into doubles than even the metric believes will happen. That, in turn, will undershoot his xOBA a bit too.

But I’m in general agreement with your post. If someone thinks he’s a 120 OPS+ or wRC+ guy, then you probably sell high. That does leave a hole in CF though so unless they are sure Rafaela can hold his own against MLB pitching, they’d have to take that into account. I don’t think they are resigning Duvall even if they trade Duran.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think they will not trade Duran even though they should. Bloom loves his homegrown guys and will give him a long leash. Verdugo is a guy I can see them trading. He’s had his issues here, but I do not want to give him a long term deal. Let Rafaela take RF over.
 

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The best FA outfielders this year are Jung-Hoo Lee, Teoscar Hernandez, and Joc Pederson. That bodes well for Duvall, who will be 35 and has made "only" 24 million in his career. Give him the QO, he turns it down and signs 3/48 somewhere else.

(I like Lee for the Sox, BTW. But that's another story.)
Lee is another lefty though. That’s a lot of lefties, which is part of the reason I brought up Duvall in the first place.
 

jteders1

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Duran's a nice player, and I'm certainly happy to have him penciled in as the starting CF next year, but if someone values him as an emerging borderline all star, they should trade him.

The big leap Duran's made this year is on defense. The fact that he's turned himself into an average CF is remarkable and praiseworthy. Offensively though, I think a lot of folks are seeing the 120 wRC+ and ignoring the underlying metrics that suggest he's probably a slightly below average hitter.

View attachment 69905

The K rate and BB rate are not good but he's an exceptional athlete. I think most likely, we're looking at a guy who can play center field andis about a league average-ish hitter.

That's super valuable. I'm thrilled with the outcome. But yeah, i someone thinks he's more than that,if they buy that he's really a 120 WrC+ guy, for example, I think I'd be okay with a trade.
I agree with this. A lot of his offensive value is tied up in his speed. While he’s young, he’s not that young, and if you can trade him for superstar value, I think you do it. If you can’t get that, I’m happy to keep him and let him patrol CF for his cost controlled years.
 

JM3

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I think everyone should be on the table, but no one should be on the block, if that makes sense.

We currently have 5 MLB-ready (or close) outfield assets - Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Abreu & Rafaela (not counting Ref because he's the ideal 5th outfielder & not a valuable trade chip).

They all come with different amounts of control & different risks & strengths. If another team is absolutely in love with any of them & makes an offer you shouldn't refuse, you don't refuse.*

*With the exception of you can't trade Yoshida if it will decrease your odds of getting Yamamoto.
 

moondog80

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Lee is another lefty though. That’s a lot of lefties, which is part of the reason I brought up Duvall in the first place.
Yep, that's the drawback. But it just means you trade Verdugo, and you're no more LH heavy than you were before.

The appeal of Lee is that he's supposedly a plus defender, and he's only 25. And because he's coming form another league, he won't require the 12+ year deal that most guys who his FA that young get.
 

bosockboy

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I think everyone should be on the table, but no one should be on the block, if that makes sense.

We currently have 5 MLB-ready (or close) outfield assets - Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Abreu & Rafaela (not counting Ref because he's the ideal 5th outfielder & not a valuable trade chip).

They all come with different amounts of control & different risks & strengths. If another team is absolutely in love with any of them & makes an offer you shouldn't refuse, you don't refuse.*

*With the exception of you can't trade Yoshida if it will decrease your odds of getting Yamamoto.
Seattle needs offense desperately to add around Rodriguez. Duran might be the centerpiece of getting a Logan Gilbert. One example of where he’s more valuable in trade.
 

JimD

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I wonder what Rafaela would fetch in a trade after the season he's had? He is probably at the peak of his value right now unless he can learn to lay off bad pitches. Bloom needs to get this one right.
 

billy ashley

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RE peak value for players (Duran and Rafaela, specifically).

I think every major league organization is savvy enough to understand the risks of each player they're acquiring. No one is going to make a trade for Rafaela, realistically, and not know that he's overly aggressive at the plate. Literally everyone knows that. Some teams may differ slightly on how they value Rafaela, because of this byt they're all aware. Likewise, every team has likely scouted the hell out of Duran.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Interesting that the Sox three primary OF all have the same OBP

Yoshida 294/346/455
Duran 295/346/482
Verdugo 281/346/451

With Duvall at 267/329/556

Hypothetically speaking, if you could move Yoshida, would you? He’s much older than Duran and Verdugo, has negative value defensively, etc.

Basically, who would you rather have the next four years- Yoshida or Verdugo?
 
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JM3

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Interesting that the Sox three primary OF all have the same OBP

Yoshida 294/346/455
Duran 295/346/482
Verdugo 281/346/451

With Duvall at 267/329/556

Hypothetically speaking, if you could move Yoshida, would you? He’s much older than Duran and Verdugo, has negative value defensively, etc.

Basically, who would you rather have the next four years- Yoshida or Verdugo?
From a pure baseball perspective I'd absolutely be willing to move Yoshida. & if we're talking identical 4-year contracts, I'd probably take Verdugo based on age & his ability to play RF at Fenway when we already are locked into Devers & Casas in the lineup.

Of course, the calculus off the field could 100% change that in terms of how future players view coming to the organization, including Yoshida's former teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
 

mikcou

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From a pure baseball perspective I'd absolutely be willing to move Yoshida. & if we're talking identical 4-year contracts, I'd probably take Verdugo based on age & his ability to play RF at Fenway when we already are locked into Devers & Casas in the lineup.

Of course, the calculus off the field could 100% change that in terms of how future players view coming to the organization, including Yoshida's former teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
I suspect there’s zero demand for Yoshida on his current deal. A trade, if there were one, is probably sending $20M out with him and taking the proverbial bag of balls back.

While he’s been a solid enough hitter, he hasn’t shown enough to really move the needle from what the consensus seemed to be in the offseason and, if anything, he’s been a worse fielder than expected. The combination of that, the low walk rate, and fringe average power make him a someone who isn’t particularly attractive at 4/72.

Maybe he improves over the last 40 games or so, but his season numbers aren’t typically what teams are looking for as a LF/DH.
 

grimshaw

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Seems like Verdugo will get something like 10 mill next year and you could maybe pencil him in for 2-3 fWAR since outfield defense is a fickle thing year to year. I'm not seeing his skillset easily replaced so wouldn't move him. And if he turns into a 3-4 win guy next season, then maybe he's a QO candidate.

For once they have reasonable outfield depth, but not enough for me to want to move on from anyone. Duvall has made things interesting, but I'm getting 2018 Steve Pearce shades rather than someone I'd want to reinvest in since he's stretched in center, not young, no longer discounted, and probably not open to reduced playing time. Nor should he be. Bravo Mr. Duvall.

Then again, I loved the Yoshida signing, and hated all of the other ones (except Martin), so what the hell do I know?
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

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I wonder what Rafaela would fetch in a trade after the season he's had? He is probably at the peak of his value right now unless he can learn to lay off bad pitches. Bloom needs to get this one right.
I want to see them use their outfield depth for a second baseman. Ideally I'd want Kim from San Diego. FWIW, BTV has Kim for Rafaela as a moderate overpay for San Diego. Verdugo is valued slightly less than Rafaela and Yoshida for Kim would fly on BTV.

If you want to play the "what bad contract would you take on?" game, Christian Yelich is still out there through 2028 at $24.251 per year and could come with a year of Willy Adames attached.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Why do people keep bringing up Kim?! He has the 12th highest WAR in baseball, SD LOVES him and they are ALREADY seriously talking about moving Xander to 1b. They didn’t trade Kim when he was struggling so why on Earth would they trade him now? He’s had a major breakthrough with the bat, he‘s only 27 and $ isn’t a consideration in SD. Kim is exciting af to watch and he’s hitting his prime.
 

bosockboy

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Why do people keep bringing up Kim?! He has the 12th highest WAR in baseball, SD LOVES him and they are ALREADY seriously talking about moving Xander to 1b. They didn’t trade Kim when he was struggling so why on Earth would they trade him now? He’s had a major breakthrough with the bat, he‘s only 27 and $ isn’t a consideration in SD. Kim is exciting af to watch and he’s hitting his prime.
And, we have Story at SS with Mayer coming.
 

YTF

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Why do people keep bringing up Kim?! He has the 12th highest WAR in baseball, SD LOVES him and they are ALREADY seriously talking about moving Xander to 1b. They didn’t trade Kim when he was struggling so why on Earth would they trade him now? He’s had a major breakthrough with the bat, he‘s only 27 and $ isn’t a consideration in SD. Kim is exciting af to watch and he’s hitting his prime.
Add to this, all of a sudden MI is no longer the defensive priority that most of us saw it to be not so long ago. If we're looking at moving Rafaela with an eye toward improving the defense, there are 2, maybe 3 in house candidates that are well suited to spend some time at DH should Turner not return. The holes that they might leave could be addressed with a trade.
 

Benj4ever

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I think everyone should be on the table, but no one should be on the block, if that makes sense.

We currently have 5 MLB-ready (or close) outfield assets - Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Abreu & Rafaela (not counting Ref because he's the ideal 5th outfielder & not a valuable trade chip).

They all come with different amounts of control & different risks & strengths. If another team is absolutely in love with any of them & makes an offer you shouldn't refuse, you don't refuse.*

*With the exception of you can't trade Yoshida if it will decrease your odds of getting Yamamoto.
See, I'm right on board with this kind of thinking. I'd add that since you have some uncertainty about the younger guys, it's a good idea to keep them all. That way, you have a solid outfield even if one or two of them don't become full time players. But, yes, if you get an offer that blows you away, you take it. And, yeah, it applies to any and all of them (except for the Yoshida scenario above), not just Duran. And if you think you can outsmart other teams by looking at metrics, don't. They have access to the same information that you do.
 

YTF

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See, I'm right on board with this kind of thinking. I'd add that since you have some uncertainty about the younger guys, it's a good idea to keep them all. That way, you have a solid outfield even if one or two of them don't become full time players. But, yes, if you get an offer that blows you away, you take it. And, yeah, it applies to any and all of them (except for the Yoshida scenario above), not just Duran. And if you think you can outsmart other teams by looking at metrics, don't. They have access to the same information that you do.
Every team has access to the same information. There is no doubt about that, but we also have to keep in mind that not each team is looking at the same player in a similar way that you might. Needs may dictate which of those metrics are more important and which are less important. It's not always about trying to outsmart other teams, but quite often it's about finding a path toward filling a need that leaves both sides feeling as though they have accomplished a goal.
 

grimshaw

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The best FA outfielders this year are Jung-Hoo Lee, Teoscar Hernandez, and Joc Pederson. That bodes well for Duvall, who will be 35 and has made "only" 24 million in his career. Give him the QO, he turns it down and signs 3/48 somewhere else.

(I like Lee for the Sox, BTW. But that's another story.)
The QO last season was 19.75 million. I can't imagine the Sox offering that, nor Duvall not accepting that.
 

JM3

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Going to go ahead & bump this thread as we're talking about the OF mix in the Core thread, & there's a list of free agents in the OP.

One guy who stands out as someone who may be useful in balancing out the lineup, more so than potentially Duvall, is Harrison Bader, who is younger, better on defense, & rakes against lefties. The only issue may be redundancy with Refnsyder if he doesn't hit righties better than he did this year.

This season Bader had a 153 wrC+ against lefties & 37 against righties (121 & 82 for his career). Duvall had reverse splits, 91 wRC+ against lefties & 124 against righties this season (100 & 97 for his career).

Bader was 9 OAA in 752.1 innings, all in CF this year.

Duvall was -3 OAA in 692.1 innings, (L to R: 34.2/478/179.2).

So if we're looking for a guy to "balance out the lineup" & play good defense, Bader seems like the far superior solution while also being 6 years younger (29 to 35). There is, of course, the matter of cost.
 

Fishy1

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Going to go ahead & bump this thread as we're talking about the OF mix in the Core thread, & there's a list of free agents in the OP.

One guy who stands out as someone who may be useful in balancing out the lineup, more so than potentially Duvall, is Harrison Bader, who is younger, better on defense, & rakes against lefties. The only issue may be redundancy with Refnsyder if he doesn't hit righties better than he did this year.

This season Bader had a 153 wrC+ against lefties & 37 against righties (121 & 82 for his career). Duvall had reverse splits, 91 wRC+ against lefties & 124 against righties this season (100 & 97 for his career).

Bader was 9 OAA in 752.1 innings, all in CF this year.

Duvall was -3 OAA in 692.1 innings, (L to R: 34.2/478/179.2).

So if we're looking for a guy to "balance out the lineup" & play good defense, Bader seems like the far superior solution while also being 6 years younger (29 to 35). There is, of course, the matter of cost.
Bader has been Verdugo-ish against RHP for his career, FWIW. Horrible last year, and very bad for his career, (OPS around 660). I could see him as insurance against Rafaela imploding, esp. given his defensive talent - but the matter of opportunity cost isn't insubstantial. Do we want to keep grabbing scrap heap guys, or do we want to go out and nab somebody better?
 

TheYellowDart5

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Going to go ahead & bump this thread as we're talking about the OF mix in the Core thread, & there's a list of free agents in the OP.

One guy who stands out as someone who may be useful in balancing out the lineup, more so than potentially Duvall, is Harrison Bader, who is younger, better on defense, & rakes against lefties. The only issue may be redundancy with Refnsyder if he doesn't hit righties better than he did this year.

This season Bader had a 153 wrC+ against lefties & 37 against righties (121 & 82 for his career). Duvall had reverse splits, 91 wRC+ against lefties & 124 against righties this season (100 & 97 for his career).

Bader was 9 OAA in 752.1 innings, all in CF this year.

Duvall was -3 OAA in 692.1 innings, (L to R: 34.2/478/179.2).

So if we're looking for a guy to "balance out the lineup" & play good defense, Bader seems like the far superior solution while also being 6 years younger (29 to 35). There is, of course, the matter of cost.
Bader would be pretty much a 1-for-1 Kiké replacement, the only trick would be getting him to agree to a similar deal, maybe something like 2/24 or one year with an option. This is probably his lone shot at getting a long-term contract for serious money, so I imagine Boston would be a tough sell, but weirder things have happened. But I also question whether that's the best use of resources.
 

JM3

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Bader has been Verdugo-ish against RHP for his career, FWIW. Horrible last year, and very bad for his career, (OPS around 660). I could see him as insurance against Rafaela imploding, esp. given his defensive talent - but the matter of opportunity cost isn't insubstantial. Do we want to keep grabbing scrap heap guys, or do we want to go out and nab somebody better?
I'm comparing him directly to the idea of re-signing Duvall. An ideal off season would include funner paths, but if they do something like trade Verdugo & spend most of their financial capital on the pitching staff, there are worse options than an OF mix of Yoshida/Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Bader/Refsnyder.
 

greenmountains

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Fishy1 said:
"Bader has been Verdugo-ish against RHP for his career, FWIW. Horrible last year, and very bad for his career, (OPS around 660). I could see him as insurance against Rafaela imploding, esp. given his defensive talent - but the matter of opportunity cost isn't insubstantial. Do we want to keep grabbing scrap heap guys, or do we want to go out and nab somebody better?"


This is what I keep coming back to. The Sox have some prospect capital and cash. I see Duran as a huge sell high opportunity (as May, June, July seem like a long time ago). I think Rafaela's defense is a game changer (I think he's JBJ now...with upside for more). Its to try to nab someone who is more than 1/2 step above replacement level. The Sox have Anthony on the horizon to take Verdugo's spot, but no one else that's even ready / close to ready from the right side of the plate. Could Blaze Jordan play a competent LF in '26 when Yoshida is traded/DH? Maybe, that's about all that's on the horizon (from the right side of the plate...with plus power).

There's a good dialogue about handedness in the '24 Core thread. My bias about '24 and '25 is the Sox need to improve defensively and improve their power right handedness. I think the days of '13 and cheap opportunist acquisitions is gone. I just keep coming back to ..... Mike Trout. Less than ideal given the constant injuries. They have the cash now (and Sale is coming off the books after '24) and he won't cost a ton in prospects. They can keep playing the incremental improvement game, or try something fundamentally more substantive.

IF IF IF Roman Anthony were right handed....IF IF IF we knew Rafaela would hit enough to be Mookie Light. But we don't know those things. We also don't know if Trout can stay healthy again. Couple Trout with a top tier starter and a middle tier starter (which the Sox have assets to trade for), they have just jumped out of the incremental game...defensively and offensively.

(We are having this discussion in '24 Core too)
 
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JM3

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Bader would be pretty much a 1-for-1 Kiké replacement, the only trick would be getting him to agree to a similar deal, maybe something like 2/24 or one year with an option. This is probably his lone shot at getting a long-term contract for serious money, so I imagine Boston would be a tough sell, but weirder things have happened. But I also question whether that's the best use of resources.
It will be interesting to see what his market is. He hasn't had a particularly good season since '21, so he might be looking for a 1-year deal to get back into the market next year, & Fenway is a pretty good place to see if he can put up some #s. But I agree it should be more of a back-up idea than like a plan.
 

JM3

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This is what I keep coming back to. The Sox have some capital and cash. I see Duran as a huge sell high opportunity (as May, June, July seem like a long time ago). I think Rafaela's defense is a game changer (I think he's JBJ now...with upside for more). Its to try to nab someone who is more than 1/2 step above replacement level. The Sox have Anthony on the horizon to take Verdugo's spot, but no one else that's even ready / close to ready from the right side of the plate. Could Blaze Jordan play a competent LF in '26 when Yoshida is traded/DH? Maybe, that's about all that's on the horizon (from the right side of the plate...with plus power).

There's a good dialogue about handedness in the '24 Core thread. My bias about '24 and '25 is the Sox need to improve defensively and improve their power right handedness. And I just keep coming back to ..... Mike Trout. Less than ideal given the constant injuries.
I would not be optimistic about Blaze in left. I think he'll end up being a pretty fun 1B/3B/DH option in a couple years, though. & he did have a .993 OPS against lefties this season (.801 against righties). Bleis on the other hand could be here in '26 & could be hitting with some power by then.

Trout at $37m+ per year for the next 7 years is certainly a budget bender.
 

chawson

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It will be interesting to see what his market is. He hasn't had a particularly good season since '21, so he might be looking for a 1-year deal to get back into the market next year, & Fenway is a pretty good place to see if he can put up some #s. But I agree it should be more of a back-up idea than like a plan.
Yeah, this is the sort of thing I'm thinking too. Doubt there are better fits for rebounding Bader's value than a one-year stint in Boston. But there's probably enough demand in RHH outfielders that he wouldn't need to.

On the other side of the spectrum, one guy I'm really intrigued by is Eloy Jiménez. The Benintendi deal made him a primary DH — probably for the best. But he doesn't want to be done in the outfield (and has said that the ball flight is easier to read in right field than left, for what it's worth).

He's been hurt a lot, including missing time due to an appendectomy last year. BTW has him at negative 7.3 value, but he's not yet 27 and has a pretty good shot at being one of the 10 best RHBs of the next few years. Seems like a guy who could really benefit from getting out of Chicago, which is reportedly super dysfunctional, and he needs a new hitting coach.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Fishy1 said:
My bias about '24 and '25 is the Sox need to improve defensively and improve their power right handedness. I think the days of '13 and cheap opportunist acquisitions is gone. I just keep coming back to ..... Mike Trout.
Count me in for a Trout trade, paired with trades to move Duran and Yoshida (unless we need to keep Yoshida as Yamamoto bait -- hold off on the Trout trade, if possible, until the Yama situation is sorted out).

With Trout in and Yoshida/Duran out, the outfield in '24 looks like:

Trout (R) LF / CF / DH
Rafaela (R) CF / RF
Verdugo (L) RF
Abrue (L) LF / CF
Refsnyder (R) LF / RF

A left-center-right defense of Trout, Little Raffy and Dugie would be excellent. Don't know how often we'd want to see that, though, as Dugie should be sitting against lefties, and Little Raffy might should be sitting against righties. This collection of outfielders offers lots of platoon mix & match possibilities, with a defensive floor of solid.

Home vs RHP (left to right)
Trout, Abreu, Verdugo

Home vs LHP
Trout, Rafaela, Refsnyder (or flip Trout and Refy, or even push everybody over one spot, i.e. Refy, Trout, Lil Rafy, though I'd rather keep Trout away from the jutting bullpen in Fenway CF)

Road vs RHP
Abreu, Trout, Verdugo

Road vs LHP
Trout, Rafaela, Refsnyder

The key to trading for Trout is giving up enough prospect capital to bring back a lot of cash for that underwater contract. Preferably $12-17M per season to get his salary cost down to $20-25M. I start with Duran (I have no interest in an outfielder who can't make plays at the fence), offer one of York/Bleis, and one MiLB pitcher not named L Perales, W Gonzalez, or Y Monegro. If it takes one more player, they can pick anybody else from Sox Prospects #15 or lower (I'd even let them pick Zanatello or Y Cespedes, if necessary).

Why do the Angels do this? First, because Trout wants a chance to win and that chance is over with the Angels now. Duran provides an MLB-ready CF replacement for Trout and gets to go home to So Cal. And the Angels get a good farm system influx with two or three of the Sox system's top 30.

Why do the Sox do this? They keep their best three pitching prospects, best OF prospect (Anthony), best IF prospect (Mayer) and best C prospect (Teel). They get Trout, the greatest player of his generation, and he gets to close out his career in the shadow of the Green Monster, where a couple other decent players named Williams and Yastrzemski patrolled. Yes, Trout will likely miss time for injury. But as has been discussed in other threads, even playing 100 games a season Trout will put up 3 or 4 wins.

Looking ahead, hopefully in '25 Anthony (L) is ready to replace Verdugo in RF. If Refsnyder remains productive vs lefties re-sign him; if not, find another right-handed platoon option with good defense.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, count me out on emptying the minors in order to get back enough money to make his contract palatable for DH. His days in the field are over unless you're looking for a fourth OF, in which case the prospect capital necessary to make that contract make sense basically wipes out the system.
 

JM3

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I had this in my drafts when I opened this thread, so I might as well send it, even though it doesn't really show anything.

C Note sss MLB splits:

vs Lefties .645
vs Righties .675

'23 Minors

vs Lefties .782
vs Righties .851

'22 Minors

vs Lefties .915
vs Righties .874

'21 Minors

vs Lefties .931
vs Righties .681
 

jon abbey

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This is the time of year to hypothesize to one’s heart’s content, but I don’t see how in the real world there is even a tiny sliver of a chance that 1) Ohtani doesn’t leave, 2) LAA then trades their other big draw, a career Angel/lock Hall of Famer, whether or not it makes baseball sense.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
21,757
Rogers Park
This is the time of year to hypothesize to one’s heart’s content, but I don’t see how in the real world there is even a tiny sliver of a chance that 1) Ohtani doesn’t leave, 2) LAA then trades their other big draw, a career Angel/lock Hall of Famer, whether or not it makes baseball sense.
The rumors back in September were that the FO was willing to move Trout if he asked, but the sense around the club was that he wasn’t interested in a trade.

But then I followed back to see the source of the rumors, and it was a Bob Nightengale column for USA Today. Not much to go on.

The Los Angeles Angels, perhaps for the first time, are open to trading All-Star outfielder Mike Trout if he indicates to them that he wants out. Trout has exclusive no-trade rights and said recently that he wants to have a private conversation with the front office and ownership about their direction.
However, Trout, 32, would not generate the same trade return as in the past. He has not played more than 140 games since 2016, and will have missed 249 games the past three years if he doesn’t return this season.
He still has $248.15 million owed to him the next seven years.
 

greenmountains

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Feb 24, 2023
54
The question is....How much does Mike Trout want to win? I don't think the Angels are positioned to win in the next seven (especially not the next three). If ownership wants to give him the chance to move on to win now, there are probably one a handful of teams he wants to do that for. But it comes back to does he uproot his family and life for the chance to win. He's an east coast guy with an east coast mindset. Hopefully, Trout feels that its time to stop "languishing" in LA.

I find it comparable to Connor McDavid of the Oilers playing all of his hockey at 10:00 EST. The NHL should figure out how to get him to the east coast so hockey fans can see him play day in and day out - it would be for the best interest of the sport.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
12,723
It’s too late for east coast fans to see him play day in and day out. He plays half seasons these days.
 

grepal

New Member
Jul 20, 2005
193
Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Verdugo in RF. Masa is the DH.

If Verdugo goes in the offseason (which wouldn't surprise me), I could see them going after someone on a short deal (Kiermaeier, Pederson) as a place holder for Anthony. They may decide to just use Refsnyder in RF for all I know. I don't think they'll spend big there when they need pitching first and foremost.
That looks like an outfield with so little pop the Sox would need a rotation that no team could afford.
 

grepal

New Member
Jul 20, 2005
193
I think this off-season would be the time to acquire something of quality for Verdugo. Coming off a great defensive season with decent offensive production and an inexpensive year left for the acquiring team to evaluate fit long term.

I would only move him for a major league ready pitcher or position player. I think there is a real possibility the player we see today is peak Verdugo. If he starts slowly next year or the real issues with Cora (and the team) filter out you’re probably going to receive less or potentially lose him for nothing to free agency.

I like his passion and thought he had some leadership qualities the team needed desperately this year. But after the latest benching I’ve changed my mind. Good player but he’s not a kid anymore.

If the Sox don’t see him as part of the future I would hope they try to maximize the return. But I’m also waffling with this stance because a motivated, contract year Verdugo could still step up another smaller notch.
If the Sox trade Verdugo I think he goes in Soto deal or for a solid upgrade at second base
 

jteders1

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Dec 5, 2022
135
The question is....How much does Mike Trout want to win? I don't think the Angels are positioned to win in the next seven (especially not the next three). If ownership wants to give him the chance to move on to win now, there are probably one a handful of teams he wants to do that for. But it comes back to does he uproot his family and life for the chance to win. He's an east coast guy with an east coast mindset. Hopefully, Trout feels that its time to stop "languishing" in LA.

I find it comparable to Connor McDavid of the Oilers playing all of his hockey at 10:00 EST. The NHL should figure out how to get him to the east coast so hockey fans can see him play day in and day out - it would be for the best interest of the sport.
I hate the idea, but McDavid in Toronto or Montreal makes a ton of sense for him and the NHL. This is an excellent point.
 

edhand

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Oct 27, 2023
34
A lot of this depends on the trade value they can get. The way I view it now:

Yoshida- LF
Duran- CF
Abreu- RF

-In this scenario, I'm assuming that Verdugo is the odd man out.
-Rafaela starts in CF against lefties, plays 2B against righties. The FA market for 2B is really bad this year. I suppose a trade is possible but this gets Rafaela regular reps even if 2B isn't his best position.
-Refsnyder in LF or RF vs lefties.

They need to get someone right-handed to play right or left. Duvall makes a lot of sense. Teoscar Hernandez would be cool but obviously pricey. They you can move Yoshida to DH. I'm bullish on Abreu, get Trot Nixon vibes.
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
15,687
The only OF in Spotrac's list of top 10 free agents is Cody Bellinger:

CODY BELLINGER (OF, 28, CHC)
The Cubs don’t appear overly motivated to bring back Bellinger with any sort of long-term guarantee, but that shouldn’t stop him from finding a great contract this winter. After compiling a combined 1.0 WAR over the past three seasons, Bellinger broke back out with a 4.4 output, including 29 doubles, 26 homers, 20 stolen bases, and an .881 OPS. Is he fixed for good?

PREDICTION: 5 YEARS, $110M, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
https://www.spotrac.com/news/predictions-for-spotracs-top-10-mlb-free-agents-2035/

I suppose if we really wanted to move on from both Duran & Verdugo & could get some good value for them...
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
5,519
I've mentioned before that Bellinger profiles terribly at Fenway, and I think his resurgence was something of a mirage. He's a LHB pull hitter without real power who got some serious help from Wrigley this year while posting career lows in solid contact and barrel %.

He has 187 career HR; if he played all his games at Fenway statcast projects that number at 137. That's third worst of any park in baseball, a little behind KC and (ironically) way behind SF (115).

He'd be a great fit for the toilet though.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
6,543
Nice little piece on some potential places to trade Alex Verdugo from MLB Trade Rumors:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/looking-for-a-match-in-an-alex-verdugo-trade.html

Tier 1 - Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Mariners & Yankees
Tier 2 - Guardians, Marlins & Padres
Tier 3 - Blue Jays, Mets, Phillies & Pirates
Ha. Just saw that and was on the way to posting it.
I was pretty pro-Verdugo even into late August but that September pushed me back the other way. As others have stated.... what he brings isn't worth what he's going to get. I'm leaning towards a trade and going with Abreu in RF... or explore a deal for Trout and have Abreu be part of that package. I've also started to become more bullish on Duran and holy shit I wasn't even through his hot streak... but as a LF'er. He's not cut out for CF but think he can be a good fielder there.
Yoshida plays some LF also but mostly DH. Or you add Duran into the Trout (MASK REPLICA) and have him and Yoshida split time at DH/corner OF help.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
4,984
Not a very inspiring list of RHH outfielders available in free agency. Jorge Soler (who I think they tried to sign last year?) is basically a DH. Then you have a long list of corner outfielders like Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Lourdes Gurriel, and Teoscar Hernandez. I do not feel confident with any of those guys playing RF in Fenway over the course of a season but I guess Canha and Hernandez are interesting. And finally CFers who either can't hit (Harrison Bader, Michael Taylor) or are getting pretty old (Duvall).

If you trade Verdugo, maybe you re-sign Duvall and also grab Canha? Short term deals as Rafaela develops. I don't see much of a point with Bader/Taylor. If we're going to give at bats to a great defender/question-mark hitter in CF, I'd rather you just let Rafaela work it out. At least Duvall can still play a competent RF/CF and provide plenty of power. Canha is a very tough at bat who walks a ton and doesn't strike out. Not a good defender, but you can stick him in left and let Yoshida DH more.

Not sure about trade targets. Luis Robert would be awesome but he's under control for the next four seasons and I'm not sure he's worth gutting the farm for before you find out what Rafaela can do.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,687
Out of all the groups of players this is almost certainly one of them...

Top 15 2023/24 MLB outfield free agents- 11/3

15. Hunter Renfroe
14. Jason Heyward
13. Joc Pederson
12. Andrew McCutchen
11. Tommy Pham
10. Randal Grichuk
9. Michael A. Taylor
8. Adam Duvall
7. Harrison Bader
6. Kevin Kiermaier
5. Jung-Ho Lee
4. Jorge Soler
3. Lourdes Gurriel Jr
2. Teoscar Hernandez
1. Cody Bellinger
View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1720553120533455322