What would Devers fetch in a trade?

[nighthob]

You'd need to make a trade to a team that is a big market team (so they can re-sign him or extend him) and that has a need at 3b.

Philly might just be the team. Alec Bohm is a decent player: 13 hr, .713 ops, 100 ops+. He's just 26. Could possibly blossom into a pretty good player, but most likely he'll only get marginally better at this point. Still, not a stiff.

For Philly, Devers would represent a HUGE upgrade. For Boston, they could deal Devers and get a top prospect plus a guy who is at least a league average 3b, who still has some room to grow.

I don't know if that would represent a "good" deal for Devers, but it might be the kind of deal that could happen. Helps having Dombrowski there.

The Mets make the most sense, I think. They desperately want a big splash and Devers would improve that lineup considerably. Brett Baty is unlikely to be as good a hitter and I doubt the Mets are as concerned with surplus value as small market teams. Giving them a negotiating window to ink an extension is a no brainer and I expect that they’d rather have the surety.

So cognizant that they started spring training normally before canceling the rest of it March 12th?
The Betts trade happened February 10th. Covid wasn't even officially named COVID-19 until the following day.

This is all technically true, but completely misleading. As you obviously looked this up you KNOW that the WHO issued a global emergency in January of 2020 and that the same month the US began officially screening people at airports to prevent its transmission here. Amongst other things that happened before February 10th were the US declaring the novel coronavirus a national emergency, China locking down two provinces in a vain attempt to contain its spread, the US demanding that all people entering the country from Asia quarantine for two weeks before mixing with the public, and global restrictions on air travel in another vain attempt to prevent the virus’s spread.

I know that we all like to believe that owners of sports teams and their employees are idiots, but trust me when I tell you that they were all aware that the world was changing for the worse and that they were discussing their options at the time.

 

[mauf]

This is all technically true, but completely misleading. As you obviously looked this up you KNOW that the WHO issued a global emergency in January of 2020 and that the same month the US began officially screening people at airports to prevent its transmission here. Amongst other things that happened before February 10th were the US declaring the novel coronavirus a national emergency, China locking down two provinces in a vain attempt to contain its spread, the US demanding that all people entering the country from Asia quarantine for two weeks before mixing with the public, and global restrictions on air travel in another vain attempt to prevent the virus’s spread.

I know that we all like to believe that owners of sports teams and their employees are idiots, but trust me when I tell you that they were all aware that the world was changing for the worse and that they were discussing their options at the time.

As unbelievable as it seems now, the implications of COVID weren’t appreciated outside the infectious disease community until the last week of February 2020 or thereabouts. Looking back at the performance of the stock market is, I think, a decent way to gauge retrospectively how moneyed interests (such as owners of sports teams) were thinking about COVID at the time. On February 10th, it wasn’t a major concern for businesses without operations in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash

 

[BravesField]

Well I know I'm going to get blowback, but I'd try to take the Yankees best offer. I could care less if this puts NYY over the top as favorites, to me they're just another team in the division. Then maybe we weaken a divisional opponent's minor league system. Should hopefully pay dividends with 6 years of control if and when the players make it to the show.

Of course I can almost imagine a bidding war with Philly and the Mets.....both are so close.

 

[jon abbey]

Well I know I'm going to get blowback, but I'd try to take the Yankees best offer. I could care less if this puts NYY over the top as favorites, to me they're just another team in the division. Then maybe we weaken a divisional opponent's minor league system. Should hopefully pay dividends with 6 years of control if and when the players make it to the show.

These discussions have no chance of ever happening, from both sides. On top of all the reasons we both know (could you imagine the public outcry if BOS traded Devers to NY, even more if it helped NY win a WS?), Cashman is fully committed to defense and Devers is a subpar defender. Also NY already has too many infielders and need to trade 1 or 2, BOS can definitely do better moving him elsewhere.

 

[amfox1]

Mets for Brett Baty, Blade Tidwell, Simon Juan, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann. It allows the Mets to shed some excess pieces (and salary) and the Red Sox to get two top 10 Mets prospects, including Devers' replacement at 3B. Carrasco (1yr, 14mm) slots into the rotation and could be a trade piece over the summer to obtain another decent prospect. McCann (2yrs/24mm) is more salary ballast to increase the prospect pool and allows Wong to start the year in AAA. Juan is a international bonus baby and high-ceiling, lotto ticket.

 

[jon abbey]

Mets for Brett Baty, Blade Tidwell, Simon Juan, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann. It allows the Mets to shed some excess pieces (and salary) and the Red Sox to get two top 10 Mets prospects, including Devers' replacement at 3B. Carrasco (1yr, 14mm) slots into the rotation and could be a trade piece over the summer to obtain another decent prospect. McCann (2yrs/24mm) is more salary ballast to increase the prospect pool and allows Wong to start the year in AAA. Juan is a international bonus baby and high-ceiling, lotto ticket.

This is pretty well-designed, kudos. I think the Mets would go for this, but I think BOS would have to do it very soon as otherwise Carrasco and McCann will likely be moved elsewhere.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I love these types of threads, the who's right about when Covid became an issue aside.

I'm fully onboard trading Raffy now, rather than waiting. He's not getting a ring with this team this year, and he's likely to walk at the end of the season with nothing in return for us.

Do we add someone like Verdugo who seems superfluous with our latest signing also looking as best suited for LF? Does Verdugo bring back value?

We NEED a RF who can field Fenway's ample space. One who can hit would be even better, obviously. We NEED a SS/3B/2B if Devers is moved. I envision Story at SS and Arroyo at 2B now. Losing Devers creates another hole there. Ideally, we'd get SS and 3B covered via trade/Free Agency, allowing Story to stay at 2B and keep Arroyo as a super utility guy.

I feel like we're good (not great) at C and 1B right now. I'm hoping Kike bounces back as a solid CF. The starting rotation is what it is. Adding a 1-3 starter would be great, but I'm more optimistic in expectations from Sale and Paxton than many. I think our bullpen is much improved over last year and might be our bright spot this season.

So, would Baty be available from a New York Mets team in go for it now mode? That fills the replacement for Devers at 3B, but what about the other holes? Would Cohen sign off on including more than Baty?

If not the Mets, who? The Dbacks seem to have a plethora of young OFers. Could we nab someone like Carroll? Not sure about his glove, to be honest, but his speed should translate well in covering the ground in RF even though he's a CF by trade. Marco Luciano from the Giants would be solid get for us. Would the Giants include J.D. Davis? Would we want him?

The Reds have some interesting prospects, but there's no way they'd be in on Devers.

Jung from the Rangers? Can something be built around him that works for both sides? Burleson from St Louis? I'd like that bat, but I'm not sure he can handle RF for us.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Mets for Brett Baty, Blade Tidwell, Simon Juan, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann. It allows the Mets to shed some excess pieces (and salary) and the Red Sox to get two top 10 Mets prospects, including Devers' replacement at 3B. Carrasco (1yr, 14mm) slots into the rotation and could be a trade piece over the summer to obtain another decent prospect. McCann (2yrs/24mm) is more salary ballast to increase the prospect pool and allows Wong to start the year in AAA. Juan is a international bonus baby and high-ceiling, lotto ticket.

This I like

 

[johnnywayback]

I remember years ago, in the dark times before Brown and Tatum came along, someone started a thread in the Celtics subforum called something like, "Do The Celtics Have Any Players Who Are Very Good?"

If they trade Devers, the same question could be asked of the Red Sox. I just don't see how a team with this payroll and this fanbase can go into 2023 with, like, Trevor Story as their best player. A lot of these deals, especially the Mets one, make some sense on paper, but the time to do it was earlier in the offseason when there were still Very Good players available via free agency to help this team compete in 2023 (or, for that matter, 2024). At this point, getting two prospect nickels for the Devers quarter just signals a white flag, and I don't think Bloom has enough time left on his clock to do that.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I remember years ago, in the dark times before Brown and Tatum came along, someone started a thread in the Celtics subforum called something like, "Do The Celtics Have Any Players Who Are Very Good?"

If they trade Devers, the same question could be asked of the Red Sox. I just don't see how a team with this payroll and this fanbase can go into 2023 with, like, Trevor Story as their best player. A lot of these deals, especially the Mets one, make some sense on paper, but the time to do it was earlier in the offseason when there were still Very Good players available via free agency to help this team compete in 2023 (or, for that matter, 2024). At this point, getting two prospect nickels for the Devers quarter just signals a white flag, and I don't think Bloom has enough time left on his clock to do that.

I'd argue that Devers is more of a dime than a quarter in this scenario, but I get your point. I'm looking at the white flag already flapping in the wind and looking forward to watching the kids get some playing time as we march toward what the Braves and Orioles, among others, have in terms of a solid young roster with potential for years.

 

[AlNipper49]

Pre-injury Isiah Thomas is actually a decent comp. A Tier 2 star, the type to make an all-star team but never sniff a "best of" list. Well-liked and energetic. Carries himself with positive energy.

 

[Steve Dillard]

Mets for Brett Baty, Blade Tidwell, Simon Juan, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann. It allows the Mets to shed some excess pieces (and salary) and the Red Sox to get two top 10 Mets prospects, including Devers' replacement at 3B. Carrasco (1yr, 14mm) slots into the rotation and could be a trade piece over the summer to obtain another decent prospect. McCann (2yrs/24mm) is more salary ballast to increase the prospect pool and allows Wong to start the year in AAA. Juan is a international bonus baby and high-ceiling, lotto ticket.

I wonder if that can then be parlayed into a trade for Reynolds. One of these prospects, and maybe a Verdugo, or subsidised Carrasco?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I remember years ago, in the dark times before Brown and Tatum came along, someone started a thread in the Celtics subforum called something like, "Do The Celtics Have Any Players Who Are Very Good?"

If they trade Devers, the same question could be asked of the Red Sox. I just don't see how a team with this payroll and this fanbase can go into 2023 with, like, Trevor Story as their best player. A lot of these deals, especially the Mets one, make some sense on paper, but the time to do it was earlier in the offseason when there were still Very Good players available via free agency to help this team compete in 2023 (or, for that matter, 2024). At this point, getting two prospect nickels for the Devers quarter just signals a white flag, and I don't think Bloom has enough time left on his clock to do that.

Yeah. I don’t know how other fans watch baseball, but one of the best parts of the long summer is having a position player or DH where you are always doing math to count how many more at bats until he hits, or counting days before a pitcher’s next start. That’s what keeps me involved all year. If you don’t have that, you need to be a compelling team — one of those teams that gives off a vibe that it is more than the sum of its parts. They would be asking a lot of the fans to not have Devers. What is the compelling reason to watch? The beautiful ballpark? If you program Sunday Night Baseball, how excited are you for Red Sox Yankees without Devers? So, I do think any trade scenario before the season would have to an overpay from the other side. The Red Sox kind of give up more than just a player. For this reason I think it would have to be a mid season trade when the Sox are out of contention.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

It's going to be impressive to see a team that has a $240 million payroll and no 3 WAR players.

 

[snowmanny]

Trading partner gets what? 5 WAR for $17 million plus a year of exclusive bargaining rights. The latter is probably not worth too much. Maybe $20 million in value coming back? It doesn’t feel like that’s really worth too much pre-season. it becomes potentially worth more mid season for a team that feels it is missing a lefty masher from being a serious contender.

The exclusive bargaining rights become valuable if:
1) Devers in fact has, as has been reported but not confirmed, said what he is looking for;
2) The team trading for him is willing to immediately give him what he wants;
3) The team trading for him thinks his price is likely to go up next year.

 

[walt in maryland]

Most likely not as much as they got for Mookie. The realization of which should hopefully spur the Sox to try their darnedest to retain the guy and their evaporating credibility as a contending team.

I disagree. The reason to trade Raffy now is that the market will include teams with hopes of extending him and teams willing to take him for one year and the estimated $17 million he'll get in arbitration. And possibly flip him at the deadline.

 

[Ale Xander]

Yeah. I don’t know how other fans watch baseball, but one of the best parts of the long summer is having a position player or DH where you are always doing math to count how many more at bats until he hits, or counting days before a pitcher’s next start.

Precisely why 2001-2002 were under-appreciated!

 

[jon abbey]

I disagree. The reason to trade Raffy now is that the market will include teams with hopes of extending him and teams willing to take him for one year and the estimated $17 million he'll get in arbitration. And possibly flip him at the deadline.

Also if he is traded before the season, his new team can offer him a QO and get compensation if he turns it down, but not if he's traded midseason.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I like the idea of a trade package centered around a top prospect that is a replacement at 3b that others have mentioned. Baty from the Mets or M Vargas from the Dodgers would both make a ton of sense (for us) and I think Devers would make sense for them.

I'm not going to pretend to completely understand the BTV trade simulator but it shows Devers and Duran to have a total value of 42.9 with Vargas and Gavin Stone at 47.70 (seems pretty close). I'd love something like that, but again, I don't know how realistic that is, but the value seems pretty close, we might need to give up something a little more.

Another team I'd really like to pursue (since they seem desperate to get over the hump) are the Padres. A deal I'd like (and I think makes a ton of sense for both teams) is Devers and Duran to the Padres with Kim, E Rosario, A Morejon and D Lesko to the Sox. Again, I don't know how realistic that is in the real world, but... the trade simulator shows said 42.9 value on Devers and Duran and a 39.2 value on Kim, Rosario, Morejon and Lesko, which seems pretty close.

For San Diego, they move Devers to 1b for the year, Cronenworth plays 2b in place of Kim. Duran gives them some insurance for Tatis and his injuries and possibly allows guys like Soto and Tatis some time at DH to keep them fresh.

For Boston, Kim takes over at SS and allows Story to stay at 2b. Just like Bogaerts will probably look worse as a hitter playing 81 games in SF and games at LAD and SF, I think Kim would look better hitting in Fenway half the time, as well as at Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards. Last year Kim had a .754 OPS on the road vs .692 at home (in the AL East, I think that looks a lot more like .775) and he also is under control through the 2026 season. Rosario had a 118 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old and a 116 wRC+ as a 22 year old in AAA. He becomes our 3b of the future. Lesko gives us a high upside (high risk) pitching prospect. No idea how "realistic" that deal is, but the trade value simulator shows SD a little ahead, so...

Makes our line up this year:
C - McGuire, 1b - Casas, 2b - Story, 3b - Rosario, SS - Kim, LF - Yoshida, CF - Hernandez, RF - Verdugo, DH - Turner. If you're going to ostensibly build through the farm / youth great, and I actually don't hate that line up for 2023 as well.

 

[chawson]

I still think we’re more likely to extend Devers than trade him this offseason. In fact I think we're more likely to with Bogaerts' exit, because there are fewer internal candidates who would be a better third baseman than him in 2025.

On the other hand, I could see the Marlins stepping in on this, the way the Athletics did with Matt Holliday in 2009. Miami could give it a go for a year and trade him at the deadline if they're not in it.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

The exclusive bargaining rights become valuable if:
1) Devers in fact has, as has been reported but not confirmed, said what he is looking for;
2) The team trading for him is willing to immediately give him what he wants;
3) The team trading for him thinks his price is likely to go up next year.

Yeah, at this point Devers is probably better off just going to free agency and letting teams bid against one another. I guess I could see the Mets trading for him and offering him something crazy.

 

[LogansDad]

Agree about Bohm/Verdugo but Painter is twice the prospect Downs was. He would be a ridiculous get and probably won't happen.

6'7 19 year old who moved faster through the minors than Marcelo Mayer.

1.56 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 across 103 innings in A/AA.

His control appeared to even improve in AA: 34 K% vs 1.8 BB% (just ~30 innings though).

Dombrowski is also on record as saying something along the lines of Painter being "the best pitching prospect he has seen", and there is talk of him starting the 23 season in the Phillies rotation. I see no way he moves.

 

[nighthob]

As unbelievable as it seems now, the implications of COVID weren’t appreciated outside the infectious disease community until the last week of February 2020 or thereabouts. Looking back at the performance of the stock market is, I think, a decent way to gauge retrospectively how moneyed interests (such as owners of sports teams) were thinking about COVID at the time. On February 10th, it wasn’t a major concern for businesses without operations in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash

Given that Boston defiantly hosted a medical convention that essentially launched the pandemic here that month I’d say that even within the community they didn’t understand the extent of the damage to come. But it was already a global health emergency and businesses were already making contingency plans. At the place I worked at the time we had our first coronavirus meeting before the Mookie trade, a discussion of precautions we could take in the office in case the reality was as bad as the WHO was predicting at the time.

 

[nighthob]

Mets for Brett Baty, Blade Tidwell, Simon Juan, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann. It allows the Mets to shed some excess pieces (and salary) and the Red Sox to get two top 10 Mets prospects, including Devers' replacement at 3B. Carrasco (1yr, 14mm) slots into the rotation and could be a trade piece over the summer to obtain another decent prospect. McCann (2yrs/24mm) is more salary ballast to increase the prospect pool and allows Wong to start the year in AAA. Juan is a international bonus baby and high-ceiling, lotto ticket.

This is an excellent outline of what a deal could/should like with the Mets. I’d’ve said Willy Fanas, but it’s the same thing, pure lottery ticket.

 

[mauf]

Pre-injury Isiah Thomas is actually a decent comp. A Tier 2 star, the type to make an all-star team but never sniff a "best of" list. Well-liked and energetic. Carries himself with positive energy.

I see what you’re saying, in that Devers is a top-20 offensive talent who costs you something with the glove, just as IT was a great scorer who played bad D. But constructing a basketball team around a bad defender is a lot different than signing a baseball player who can mash and sticking him someplace where his glove won’t hurt you too much.

 

[pdub]

If we trade Devers then essentially we are saying we don't plan to contend this upcoming season. If that's the case, signing Masataka makes less sense and keeping Story makes less sense. Not because they don't fill positions of need, but because based on their respective ages they will be much older by the time we are competitive again.

My prediction is we roll with Devers until the trade deadline and see what happens. If we are in it, I think we trade to fill in holes and go for a playoff push.

 

[NYCSox]

Dombrowski is also on record as saying something along the lines of Painter being "the best pitching prospect he has seen", and there is talk of him starting the 23 season in the Phillies rotation. I see no way he moves.

There's never been a prospect that Dombrowski will not move if push comes to shove. But yeah I don't see it in this case either.

 

[Gdiguy]

Mets for Brett Baty, Blade Tidwell, Simon Juan, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann. It allows the Mets to shed some excess pieces (and salary) and the Red Sox to get two top 10 Mets prospects, including Devers' replacement at 3B. Carrasco (1yr, 14mm) slots into the rotation and could be a trade piece over the summer to obtain another decent prospect. McCann (2yrs/24mm) is more salary ballast to increase the prospect pool and allows Wong to start the year in AAA. Juan is a international bonus baby and high-ceiling, lotto ticket.

I guess I'm not seeing why the Mets would care about (and add additional actual prospects in order to) shedding what is basically rounding error-amounts of payroll if the entire point is to trade for Devers to sign him to a 10 yr 300M deal. To me that's a deal that makes sense if the Mets were say 20M over the luxury tax line and were trying to get under it for a year or something...

I dunno; my feeling is that the Mets want Baty in the hopes that he'll be one of the few cheap positions in the coming years; and even if they were willing to swap Baty for free agent market rate Devers, they'd be just as well off waiting until next offseason, where they can just spend $ signing Devers and then trade Baty for a significant prospect haul

 

[BigSoxFan]

There's never been a prospect that Dombrowski will not move if push comes to shove. But yeah I don't see it in this case either.

The best position for the Red Sox to be in would be a Cohen vs. Dombrowski bidding war. I could see one of those teams going above and beyond what we currently expect to keep a difference maker away from their direct competitor.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The best position for the Red Sox to be in would be a Cohen vs. Dombrowski bidding war. I could see one of those teams going above and beyond what we currently expect to keep a difference maker away from their direct competitor.

Imagine how man people Bloom would have to consult about that

 

[NYCSox]

Imagine how man people Bloom would have to consult about that

Let's make him a member so he can post a poll here.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

The best position for the Red Sox to be in would be a Cohen vs. Dombrowski bidding war. I could see one of those teams going above and beyond what we currently expect to keep a difference maker away from their direct competitor.

That's what I've been hoping for as well .... anyone else we can bring into the fold to increase the return?

 

[EvilEmpire]

I dunno; my feeling is that the Mets want Baty in the hopes that he'll be one of the few cheap positions in the coming years; and even if they were willing to swap Baty for free agent market rate Devers, they'd be just as well off waiting until next offseason, where they can just spend $ signing Devers and then trade Baty for a significant prospect haul

This seems right to me. Cohen will spend, but a cheap guy like Baty might allow them to spend more for other spots over the next few years.

I'm really curious how all this works out for Devers. I expect Boston to pay up at a market rate. Like Judge for the Yankees, he's their guy and I think they need him the most. But if they don't? Then I think it says a lot about their internal assessment of how they think his defense and maybe his physical tools will age on a long deal, and maybe that influences the market a little.

Maybe enough for teams to want to see Devers play out this next season and see how it goes for him.

But of course it only takes one team. Should be interesting.

 

[Daniel_Son]

How about this one?



Giants get: Rafael Devers
Red Sox get: Austin Slater and Thairo Estrada

Why it works for the Giants:
Right now, Fangraphs projects San Francisco to win 81 games next year. This places them third in their division. The Padres have made some significant moves this offseason, but it seems like the Dodgers are committed to getting under the luxury tax in 2023. That leaves a potential opening for the Giants to grab second place (or even 1st if the Padres have another 2021-style collapse). Do they have the stomach to go win-now mode with a power infusion at the hot corner? According to MLB.com, their starting 3B is Wilmer Flores, who hit .229/.316/.394 in 2022 while also covering primarily second base. Devers would represent an immediate upgrade over Flores at 3rd, who could slide over to 2B and platoon with a newly-homeless Brandon Crawford or provide some breathing room for Marco Luciano if they decide to promote him. A SS/3B combo of Correa and Devers would instantly rival X/Machado for best in the division. A year of Devers also takes some pressure off of Casey Schmitt, who just earned a AAA promotion in September. With the Haniger signing, the Giants also have a surplus of outfielders, which makes a trade for one of them more likely.

Why it works for the Red Sox:
Well currently, our biggest needs are OF coverage and answering the question marks up the middle. If Story is indeed the starting shortstop for the 2023 Red Sox, it makes sense to grab a full-time 2B. Estrada satisfies that need. Steamer projects him to hit .259/.318/.415 with 17 homers and 16 steals, although with his speed, 20 steals isn't out of the question. Slater is another good acquisition - a RH bat who had a 119 OPS+ in 2022 and projects to hit .250/.337/.404. He's also a good defender who seems more than capable of covering RF at Fenway. Slater is a FA in 2025; Estrada in 2027.

Projected Sox Starting 9:

C: Reese McGuire (L) (.242/.294/.366)
1B: Triston Casas (L) (.247/.350/.451)
2B: Thairo Estrada (R) (.258/.318/.413)
SS: Trevor Story (R) (.239/.312/.425)
3B: Christian Arroyo (R) (.264/.314/.421) (or Bobby Dalbec, who's projected to hit .232/.298/.456 - hell, maybe Turner could still start some games).
LF: Alex Verdugo (L) (.281/.338/.430) (or Yoshida)
CF: Kiké Hernandez (R) (.239/.310/.398)
RF: Austin Slater (R) (.241/.334/.388)
DH: Justin Turner (R) (.268/.343/.422) (or Yoshida)

Devers is projected to be worth 4.4 WAR in 2023 with the following numbers:
Hits: 164
XBHs: 41
HRs: 31
Steals: 4

Slater + Estrada combined are projected to be worth 3.9 WAR in 2023 with the following numbers:
Hits: 181
XBHs: 39
HRs: 23
Steals: 25

So basically, this trade results in us losing power but gaining significant speed, contact, and defensive flexibility with the added benefit of answering some glaring defensive questions on the 2023 roster and beyond. The Giants clear some space for their top prospects and get one year of Devers to complement Correa/Haniger to take advantage of a potential Dodger-sized opening in the standings.

 

[chawson]

How about this one?

View attachment 59158

Giants get: Rafael Devers
Red Sox get: Austin Slater and Thairo Estrada

Why it works for the Giants:
Right now, Fangraphs projects San Francisco to win 81 games next year. This places them third in their division. The Padres have made some significant moves this offseason, but it seems like the Dodgers are committed to getting under the luxury tax in 2023. That leaves a potential opening for the Giants to grab second place (or even 1st if the Padres have another 2021-style collapse). Do they have the stomach to go win-now mode with a power infusion at the hot corner? According to MLB.com, their starting 3B is Wilmer Flores, who hit .229/.316/.394 in 2022 while also covering primarily second base. Devers would represent an immediate upgrade over Flores at 3rd, who could slide over to 2B and platoon with a newly-homeless Brandon Crawford or provide some breathing room for Marco Luciano if they decide to promote him. A SS/3B combo of Correa and Devers would instantly rival X/Machado for best in the division. A year of Devers also takes some pressure off of Casey Schmitt, who just earned a AAA promotion in September. With the Haniger signing, the Giants also have a surplus of outfielders, which makes a trade for one of them more likely.

Why it works for the Red Sox:
Well currently, our biggest needs are OF coverage and answering the question marks up the middle. If Story is indeed the starting shortstop for the 2023 Red Sox, it makes sense to grab a full-time 2B. Estrada satisfies that need. Steamer projects him to hit .259/.318/.415 with 17 homers and 16 steals, although with his speed, 20 steals isn't out of the question. Slater is another good acquisition - a RH bat who had a 119 OPS+ in 2022 and projects to hit .250/.337/.404. He's also a good defender who seems more than capable of covering RF at Fenway. Slater is a FA in 2025; Estrada in 2027.

Projected Sox Starting 9:

C: Reese McGuire (L) (.242/.294/.366)
1B: Triston Casas (L) (.247/.350/.451)
2B: Thairo Estrada (R) (.258/.318/.413)
SS: Trevor Story (R) (.239/.312/.425)
3B: Christian Arroyo (R) (.264/.314/.421) (or Bobby Dalbec, who's projected to hit .232/.298/.456 - hell, maybe Turner could still start some games).
LF: Alex Verdugo (L) (.281/.338/.430) (or Yoshida)
CF: Kiké Hernandez (R) (.239/.310/.398)
RF: Austin Slater (R) (.241/.334/.388)
DH: Justin Turner (R) (.268/.343/.422) (or Yoshida)

Devers is projected to be worth 4.4 WAR in 2023 with the following numbers:
Hits: 164
XBHs: 41
HRs: 31
Steals: 4

Slater + Estrada combined are projected to be worth 3.9 WAR in 2023 with the following numbers:
Hits: 181
XBHs: 39
HRs: 23
Steals: 25

So basically, this trade results in us losing power but gaining significant speed, contact, and defensive flexibility with the added benefit of answering some glaring defensive questions on the 2023 roster and beyond. The Giants clear some space for their top prospects and get one year of Devers to complement Correa/Haniger to take advantage of a potential Dodger-sized opening in the standings.

I appreciate that it checks out on BTV, but pass. Thairo Estrada is a so-so defensive 2B/3B at age 26, which doesn't bode well for him going forward, and his OPS against right-handed pitchers last year was .671. He's a useful player (and I like Slater as a lefty-masher, swiss army knife-type of guy), but there's nothing special about Estrada that you can't get from a healthy Arroyo, or by signing Segura, Drury or Harrison.

FWIW, Valdez is projected to hit better (.246/.309/.437, .323 wOBA) than Estrada (.258/.318/.413, .320 wOBA) next year (by Steamer), and long-term we've got a better 2B prospect in Yorke.

There's no reason we have to trade Devers even if we're bearish about extending him. If it comes to that and the haul is a true haul, then sure. But hear me out: sign Eovaldi, trade from pitching depth for a right fielder, and we're looking at roughly the sixth-best team in the AL on paper.

 

[donutogre]

Another team I'd really like to pursue (since they seem desperate to get over the hump) are the Padres. A deal I'd like (and I think makes a ton of sense for both teams) is Devers and Duran to the Padres with Kim, E Rosario, A Morejon and D Lesko to the Sox. Again, I don't know how realistic that is in the real world, but... the trade simulator shows said 42.9 value on Devers and Duran and a 39.2 value on Kim, Rosario, Morejon and Lesko, which seems pretty close.

For San Diego, they move Devers to 1b for the year, Cronenworth plays 2b in place of Kim. Duran gives them some insurance for Tatis and his injuries and possibly allows guys like Soto and Tatis some time at DH to keep them fresh.

I think it's a bit of a stretch to just assume San Diego can slide Devers over to 1B when I'm fairly sure he has never played an inning there. I could be wrong, but that's what it looked like when I scanned his Bref page.

 

[ehaz]

I guess I'm not seeing why the Mets would care about (and add additional actual prospects in order to) shedding what is basically rounding error-amounts of payroll if the entire point is to trade for Devers to sign him to a 10 yr 300M deal. To me that's a deal that makes sense if the Mets were say 20M over the luxury tax line and were trying to get under it for a year or something...

I dunno; my feeling is that the Mets want Baty in the hopes that he'll be one of the few cheap positions in the coming years; and even if they were willing to swap Baty for free agent market rate Devers, they'd be just as well off waiting until next offseason, where they can just spend $ signing Devers and then trade Baty for a significant prospect haul

It's "only" about a ~$10M difference in 2023 player salaries but it actually saves the Mets $20M due to being in the Cohen tax. If you add Eduardo Escobar (who would be without a starting role in NY and could start at 2B next year in Boston), that's almost $40M saved. All this might be besides the point if money is meaningless to Cohen, but they could put some of that cash towards further bullpen improvements, etc.

 

[Humphrey]

I think Chaim can find a couple guys cheaper than the SF dup that can hit .240 and .258; respectively. And you still have Devers for a year.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think it's a bit of a stretch to just assume San Diego can slide Devers over to 1B when I'm fairly sure he has never played an inning there. I could be wrong, but that's what it looked like when I scanned his Bref page.

You could totally be right. But since they played Tatis Jr at a position he'd never played (I have no idea if he played the OF in the minors, I know he didn't play it at all in 2019, 2020 or the first half of his 2021 season in the majors), I don't think they'd hesitate to do it with Devers going to 1b for a chance at a ring.

They also had (I believe) Luke Voit, Wil Myers and Josh Bell as their primary DH options last year, all of whom are free agents, one of whom (Bell) has signed elsewhere, so you could assuredly give Machado and Devers both time at 3b and DH and ostensibly keep both healthy.

 

[Gdiguy]

It's "only" about a ~$10M difference in 2023 player salaries but it actually saves the Mets $20M due to being in the Cohen tax. If you add Eduardo Escobar (who would be without a starting role in NY and could start at 2B next year in Boston), that's almost $40M saved. All this might be besides the point if money is meaningless to Cohen, but they could put some of that cash towards further bullpen improvements, etc.

Yeah, but what's $40M among friends

More seriously - the Mets are already at $237M in 2024 committed salaries, and that's without a Devers contract extension (and some other stuff like Alonso, who will either be Arb3 or need an extension as well)... yeah you save $40M in 2023, but adding Devers basically wipes that savings out for 2024/2025

I think there's a couple models here - one is that Cohen doesn't care at all about $ (and then wouldn't bother doing that deal), or one where he does (in which case the choice is probably Devers or Baty + extending Pete Alonso, and I think they'd probably prefer the latter)

 

[bosockboy]

You could totally be right. But since they played Tatis Jr at a position he'd never played (I have no idea if he played the OF in the minors, I know he didn't play it at all in 2019, 2020 or the first half of his 2021 season in the majors), I don't think they'd hesitate to do it with Devers going to 1b for a chance at a ring.

They also had (I believe) Luke Voit, Wil Myers and Josh Bell as their primary DH options last year, all of whom are free agents, one of whom (Bell) has signed elsewhere, so you could assuredly give Machado and Devers both time at 3b and DH and ostensibly keep both healthy.

They just gave Matt Carpenter 12 million. He’s probably DH’ing.

 

[chawson]

I think Chaim can find a couple guys cheaper than the SF dup that can hit .240 and .258; respectively. And you still have Devers for a year.

Agree — though as a sidebar, .258 is well above average these days. The league as a whole hit .243 last year. Ten years ago that figure was .255; in 2002 it was .261.

I still look at a .245 batting average and cringe, which makes me think it’s possible that public perception hasn’t quite caught up to this sort of thing.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Fair enough @bosockboy.

That said - they have / had Fernando Tatis Jr, Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Eugy Rosario so they probably didn't need a short stop, yet...

To be clear, I obviously hope @chawson and others whom believe we're going to extend Devers are right. I'd give him literally whatever dollar amount he wants because as of now our core is Trevor Story and that's it, and hope we'll give him an extension.

But I'll put it like this, I think it's far more likely we don't extend him this off-season, go into the year with him as our lame duck 3b, don't move him at the trade deadline and then lose him for nothing but a comp pick than it is we extend him. (Admittedly this is just because I'm VERY down on Bloom's plan and execution of said plan. I truly hope he won't make that colossal of a mistake.)

 

[YTF]

Well I know I'm going to get blowback, but I'd try to take the Yankees best offer. I could care less if this puts NYY over the top as favorites, to me they're just another team in the division. Then maybe we weaken a divisional opponent's minor league system. Should hopefully pay dividends with 6 years of control if and when the players make it to the show.

Of course I can almost imagine a bidding war with Philly and the Mets.....both are so close.

In theory I kinda' get what you're saying, BUT...It's not just Devers in a vacuum. Let's say the MFY are able to extend and lock Devers up for 8 years. They have Judge locked up for the next 9, Cole for the next 6, Stanton for another 5 with an option '28, for the next 6 years, Rizzo for the next 2 with an option for '25, they put together a decent pen most years and have the ability/desire to go out and get guys to fill holes as needed. Adding Devers into that mix assures that they are likely to be more than just another team in the division. And lets suppose for a minute that Bloom is able to "weaken" their farm system, there's no guarantee that any of these guys can rise to the level that it's going to take to compete with a Yankee team that he (in theory) has helped to make stronger. I suppose if Cashman blows Bloom away with whatever package he might offer, but I can't see that happening.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Wonder if the Giants would become interested if the Correa deal falls apart completely. Ideally, they'd leave Crawford at SS, slide Devers to 3B, send us prospects and then we swoop in and sign Correa to a scratch-and-dent deal

 

[donutogre]

You could totally be right. But since they played Tatis Jr at a position he'd never played (I have no idea if he played the OF in the minors, I know he didn't play it at all in 2019, 2020 or the first half of his 2021 season in the majors), I don't think they'd hesitate to do it with Devers going to 1b for a chance at a ring.

Good catch. And the 3B to 1B transition is a pretty common one, so he could probably pull it off.

 

[E5 Yaz]

All these hypotheticals about the Padres overlook one thing: After this season, San Diego faces contractpalooza.
Not just the idea of Machado opting out, but Darvish, Snell and Hader all are eligible for free agency and Soto will have only a year remaining. If they were to trade for Devers, then let Machado opt out and leave, they'd still be facing a massive offseason.
A Devers trade hardly seems worth the added risk from San Diego's point of view.

 

[Daniel_Son]

I appreciate that it checks out on BTV, but pass. Thairo Estrada is a so-so defensive 2B/3B at age 26, which doesn't bode well for him going forward, and his OPS against right-handed pitchers last year was .671. He's a useful player (and I like Slater as a lefty-masher, swiss army knife-type of guy), but there's nothing special about Estrada that you can't get from a healthy Arroyo, or by signing Segura, Drury or Harrison.

FWIW, Valdez is projected to hit better (.246/.309/.437, .323 wOBA) than Estrada (.258/.318/.413, .320 wOBA) next year (by Steamer), and long-term we've got a better 2B prospect in Yorke.

There's no reason we have to trade Devers even if we're bearish about extending him. If it comes to that and the haul is a true haul, then sure. But hear me out: sign Eovaldi, trade from pitching depth for a right fielder, and we're looking at roughly the sixth-best team in the AL on paper.

While I agree that Slater is the real prize here, I think you're selling Estrada a little short. He provides average defense at multiple positions, which Bloom values. He's cheap (cheaper than Segura, Drury, Harrison, or other FA targets are) and likely won't command a ton in arbitration. I also think he could benefit from hitting at Fenway; take a look at his spray chart overlay from 2022:




I see a bunch of outs in left/center-left that turn into hits. Plus, the whole speed thing. His 21 SBs last year would've led the team by a significant margin. With (ideally) a full season of Story, he contributes to an interesting dynamic that we haven't seen on the team in quite some time.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I would be disappointed if the Sox traded Devers for Austin Slater and Thairo Estrada, but that's just me. I think they can do better. They both struggle vs RHP and Estrada's defense is nothing special, even if he can play multiple positions.

 

[HighTek]

If your going to trade Devers it has to be for Upside guys. please dear god not another players that are fringes w/ potential. Rather have busto prospect than decent major league "pieces" w/ moderate stability.

Those Giant players would be fine trades similar talent for, but for Devers you have to bring in something or just take the draft pick and the bonus pool money.