We should probably start a thread about what happens with Hernández going forward. Does he finish the year in Boston?
Whither Kiké?
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
Probably?
Optimistically, if Kiké is still the same elite center fielder he was in 2021, and has a 93-95 wRC+ bat (which is what he’s done since his awful top-of-season slump ended on April 12th), that’s still a really good player. That’s basically Kiermaier c. 2018-21.
Maybe moving off short can help his focus at the plate?
Right now, his Red Sox career arc is looking a lot like Shane Victorino’s. Under-the-radar signing a lot of people criticized, tremendous first season anchored by exceptional defense and postseason heroics followed by 1.5-2 seasons of injury and ineffectiveness (and in Shane’s case, at least, a DFA-ish trade).
Last edited:
Breaking out of the Arroyo-Tapia thread...
***
Hernandez is the team's best centerfielder, only occasionally a decent shortstop, and ever so rarely a very hot bat. On a team with limited ambitions (like the 2023 Red Sox), putting the best team on the field is not a high priority. It's easy to imagine Hernandez becoming a trading chip to a playoff contender.
***
Hernandez is the team's best centerfielder, only occasionally a decent shortstop, and ever so rarely a very hot bat. On a team with limited ambitions (like the 2023 Red Sox), putting the best team on the field is not a high priority. It's easy to imagine Hernandez becoming a trading chip to a playoff contender.
Said this in the other thread, but it helps to think of Kike the way we thought of Brock Holt. Versatile enough to back up both IF and OF but not a good enough hitter to be a regular starter.
Kike is a better CF defender than Holt but Holt was versatile enough to play corner OF, 3B, or even 1B in a pinch.
Kike is a better CF defender than Holt but Holt was versatile enough to play corner OF, 3B, or even 1B in a pinch.
Since Sprowl broke this out, I should probably clarify what prompted my initial comment.
Kiké is on a 1 year, $10m extension. He is hitting .228/.301/.358. Not great. He also has statcast numbers that, if anything, are even worse than his actual results: he has a .290 wOBA, but a .268 xwOBA. Yup, 10th worst among qualifying hitters! Yup, exactly the same as Jackie Bradley's 2022 number!
But maybe even worse than the offense is the defense, which is just unplayably bad — at least at SS. He is in the first percentile for Outs Above Average. He's been worth -5 runs by DRS in 55 games played, which is... hard to do. He's very likely to be considerably better in CF, to be fair.
He was, of course, pressed into service at SS when Story was injured. But now Story is recuperating, and Cora has announced that he will return as the Red Sox starting SS, which should shore up the team's two biggest needs: RH power and middle-infield defense. It could be a pretty big deal.
So... what's Kiké's role after a Story reunion? One option is that he is the starting CF. But of course Duvall is due back sooner than Story, and he will hopefully provide much more of that much-needed RHH power than Kiké has been. He might beat him in OBP, too, which is not great. The team has just made different but similarly-emphatic commitments to Refsnyder (signing him to an extension) and Duran (by DFAing Raimel Tapia rather than optioning Duran). So with Duvall back, that's a full outfield: Yoshida (best hitter on the team by oWAR), Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder, Duran. You could option Duran and keep Kiké as the fifth outfielder, but Duran might be more of an offensive threat than Kiké at this point, he's closed the gap defensively, and he's, you know, a potential part of the future of the club. If we kept Kiké to option Duran, I'd probably be pretty skeptical about the decision.
The other option is part of a middle infield situation. But that's also hard to see. Story should be starting at SS as often as he can play. You could start Kiké at 2B, but can he really hit enough at this point to justify taking that spot over a platoon of Arroyo and Valdez, who, again, have years of control remaining? Or... Mondesí, if he's still alive? So I don't really see a role for him in the infield, either.
Here are the scenarios in which I see a role for Kiké:
1) He starts hitting again really emphatically over the next few weeks, and the team briefly options Duran to showcase Duvall for a midseason trade, and cashes in on his power potential for a better contender before calling Duran back up.
2) The team completely implodes on the pitching side and trades Duvall and perhaps Verdugo, and keeps Kiké because he has no trade value to play out the string in the outfield.
That's not a ton of scenarios, and I don't think either are likely. Kiké really hasn't shown any signs of life. It's hard to even cherry pick a stretch in which he has more than a .700 OPS. His strikeout and contact rate numbers are, if anything, getting worse. And the team, while scuffling a bit since a rough West Coast swing, is hardly collapsing. The team we all thought was a slightly-better-than-.500 team is (after tonight's win over Cleveland) on an 82-and-change win pace. If they win three of their next four, that'd be an 85 win pace — right where we generally thought they'd be.
But he hardly seems tradeable, does he? Not at $10m, certainly.
(To be clear, I like the guy.)
Kiké is on a 1 year, $10m extension. He is hitting .228/.301/.358. Not great. He also has statcast numbers that, if anything, are even worse than his actual results: he has a .290 wOBA, but a .268 xwOBA. Yup, 10th worst among qualifying hitters! Yup, exactly the same as Jackie Bradley's 2022 number!
But maybe even worse than the offense is the defense, which is just unplayably bad — at least at SS. He is in the first percentile for Outs Above Average. He's been worth -5 runs by DRS in 55 games played, which is... hard to do. He's very likely to be considerably better in CF, to be fair.
He was, of course, pressed into service at SS when Story was injured. But now Story is recuperating, and Cora has announced that he will return as the Red Sox starting SS, which should shore up the team's two biggest needs: RH power and middle-infield defense. It could be a pretty big deal.
So... what's Kiké's role after a Story reunion? One option is that he is the starting CF. But of course Duvall is due back sooner than Story, and he will hopefully provide much more of that much-needed RHH power than Kiké has been. He might beat him in OBP, too, which is not great. The team has just made different but similarly-emphatic commitments to Refsnyder (signing him to an extension) and Duran (by DFAing Raimel Tapia rather than optioning Duran). So with Duvall back, that's a full outfield: Yoshida (best hitter on the team by oWAR), Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder, Duran. You could option Duran and keep Kiké as the fifth outfielder, but Duran might be more of an offensive threat than Kiké at this point, he's closed the gap defensively, and he's, you know, a potential part of the future of the club. If we kept Kiké to option Duran, I'd probably be pretty skeptical about the decision.
The other option is part of a middle infield situation. But that's also hard to see. Story should be starting at SS as often as he can play. You could start Kiké at 2B, but can he really hit enough at this point to justify taking that spot over a platoon of Arroyo and Valdez, who, again, have years of control remaining? Or... Mondesí, if he's still alive? So I don't really see a role for him in the infield, either.
Here are the scenarios in which I see a role for Kiké:
1) He starts hitting again really emphatically over the next few weeks, and the team briefly options Duran to showcase Duvall for a midseason trade, and cashes in on his power potential for a better contender before calling Duran back up.
2) The team completely implodes on the pitching side and trades Duvall and perhaps Verdugo, and keeps Kiké because he has no trade value to play out the string in the outfield.
That's not a ton of scenarios, and I don't think either are likely. Kiké really hasn't shown any signs of life. It's hard to even cherry pick a stretch in which he has more than a .700 OPS. His strikeout and contact rate numbers are, if anything, getting worse. And the team, while scuffling a bit since a rough West Coast swing, is hardly collapsing. The team we all thought was a slightly-better-than-.500 team is (after tonight's win over Cleveland) on an 82-and-change win pace. If they win three of their next four, that'd be an 85 win pace — right where we generally thought they'd be.
But he hardly seems tradeable, does he? Not at $10m, certainly.
(To be clear, I like the guy.)
Last edited:
If we're dumping assets and we are already under the salary cap, the amount of money a team we trade Kiké to would have to pay is about zero. He might be worth a lottery ticket or two or maybe even a real prospect to a team who needs a good defensive center fielder. The Sox need prospects more than money.
Kiké's not far off from a great season (5 bWAR in '21), and we were happy to sign him for $10 million not long ago. Even as bad as his SS defense has been, he's at neutral dWAR because he's good in center.
Kiké's not far off from a great season (5 bWAR in '21), and we were happy to sign him for $10 million not long ago. Even as bad as his SS defense has been, he's at neutral dWAR because he's good in center.
I agree with all of this. Clearly, we’d be paying his paychecks in any trade scenario, and a team that would be interested would be a club that needed defensive help in the outfield, had a deep system to trade from but a limited budget, and valued his playoff experience.
So… let’s root for Pittsburgh to hold onto that third NL wildcard.
I had thoughts in a different thread about defensive alignment but was stuck when it got to Duran, making my post utterly useless.
Knowing how the Sox operate about hoarding resources and having patience with veterans, they could tread water for a bit and keep Chang down as long as possible. He is a marginal upgrade. I would think Reyes would be the first DFA when Duvall comes back and he also has at least a shot at clearing waivers. They could do the same with Chang through waivers via DFA. He really isn't a savior for this or any team given how much he bas bounced around and still makes a major league salary. And if he were DFA'd and traded, would fetch something comparable or perhaps a bit better than what Hernandez could bring back.
Bottom line - I believe it would be very unlikely they DFA Hernandez because he is a "culture changer" guy, anyone (aside from Story) replacing him would not be impactful, and will not return much anyhow. He is also less useless as a super sub and vs lefties unless he grumbles about playing time. My hunch is, Chang stays down as long as possible to buy some time.
The Pirates are a great suggestion if they move him.
Knowing how the Sox operate about hoarding resources and having patience with veterans, they could tread water for a bit and keep Chang down as long as possible. He is a marginal upgrade. I would think Reyes would be the first DFA when Duvall comes back and he also has at least a shot at clearing waivers. They could do the same with Chang through waivers via DFA. He really isn't a savior for this or any team given how much he bas bounced around and still makes a major league salary. And if he were DFA'd and traded, would fetch something comparable or perhaps a bit better than what Hernandez could bring back.
Bottom line - I believe it would be very unlikely they DFA Hernandez because he is a "culture changer" guy, anyone (aside from Story) replacing him would not be impactful, and will not return much anyhow. He is also less useless as a super sub and vs lefties unless he grumbles about playing time. My hunch is, Chang stays down as long as possible to buy some time.
The Pirates are a great suggestion if they move him.
Last edited:
I disagree on Chang, he is a good enough defensive SS that the improvement at that position over Kiké would be massive for this pitching staff. I think some combination of Duran/Kiké in CF (maybe a straight platoon, but I prefer Duran at this point), Chang at SS and Arroyo at 2B is their best option this year (or at least until Story/Mondesi come back, which I am not counting on at this point).
I think the Sox take at least on extra game from Cinci and probably another game from Tampa is Chang is at SS over Kiké, his defense has been that bad. It is really, really hard to put up a -9 OAA in only 154 attempts at a position, but he has done that.
This team can still compete for the Wild Card, but the margin for error is paper thin. They need to field the best team they can as often as possible, and Chang is a part of that.
Where's Duvall in this mix? He's returning as soon as this weekend whereas Chang's return is still TBD.
He will be there somewhere, but I think we need to remember that he is definitely not going to be as good as he was before the injury (and wouldn't have been even without the injury). He has a career OBP of .292, and I worry about his power returning with the wrist injury (he had a really down year last year coming back from another wrist injury). Hopefully he settles somewhere in the .775-.825 OPS range while playing average defense in CF. I really don't know what to expect from him, though, and I think an 8 game sample size is too small to judge.
That said, if they are platooning Duran, I would rather it be with Duval for now, and use Kiké as a super sub type (or traded, but I feel like that won't happen because he seems like a big part of the culture and leadership of the team... but who knows. Certainly not me).
I don't see it. Chang has been a net +2 in DRS in his career at SS. At most we're talking about a few runs on defense before factoring in the offensive gap and the time it takes Story to return.
I would even argue that if you feel Arroyo is an improvement at SS you could move Hernandez to 2b (who is a +17 in his career) , it would be a wash over activating Chang.
I'm not disagreeing Chang is an improvement, but I don't think the impact will be felt in the short period of time.
Last edited:
Fair enough, and I just looked and Chang's offense is way worse than I thought, so my bad there.
Kiké has been nothing short (unintended pun) of a disaster at SS this year, though. It's hard to quantify, really, but he has cost them multiple games in my opinion, and has cost the pitchers a lot of wear and tear and pitches that wouldn't have had to happen with even a league average SS. I was bullish on him getting better there as the season went along, but I really think it is time to move on from that experiment and put someone out there who isn't damaging the team on a near daily basis.
Not really sure if this is the right place for this conversation, but the posts about platoons made me pull the #s...
All stats are wRC+ against righties/lefties this season unless stated otherwise:
C
McGuire 61/217
Wong 116/68
This seems super backwards, but let's chalk it up to SSS I guess? But they are both doing quite badly against the side of the platoon they are supposed to be primarily against.
1B
Casas 90/101
Turner 85/162
Casas has actually been better against lefties than righties this season. Maybe skewed by avoiding the tougher lefties? Turner has mashed lefties & been ~competent against righties
2B
Valdez 102/-68
Arroyo 110/52 (91/91 career)
Reyes 50/136
SS
Hernandez 78/78 (81/119 career)
Arroyo 110/52 (91/91 career)
Chang -8/113 (81/63 career)
3B
Devers 90/129 (132/99 career)
Turner 85/162
OF
Yoshida 155/122
Verdugo 136/93
Duran 117/67
Duvall 305/331 (97/104 career)
Refsnyder 68/170
Hernandez 78/78 (81/119 career)
So, ignoring the backwards catcher thing & kinda balancing the splits with defensive aptitude...
Against righties...
C McGuire
1B Casas
2B Valdez
SS Arroyo
3B Devers
LF Yoshida
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH Turner
Against lefties...
C Wong
1B Turner (or Casas)
2B Arroyo (or Reyes or Hernandez)
SS Reyes (or Hernandez or Chang)
3B Devers
LF Refsnyder (or Yoshida)
CF Hernandez (or Duvall)
RF Duvall (or Verdugo or Refsnyder)
DH Yoshida (or Turner)
Against righties it seems pretty straightforward to me. None of the SS options are lefty, but Arroyo has traditionally hit righties the best of the group, including this season, & is a competent SS.
Against lefties it gets much more complicated. Casas can absolutely play against lefties, & when he does, he should be at 1st & Turner should be at DH. Yoshida should play against everyone, either at DH or in LF if Turner is at DH. Refsnyder, Duvall & Hernandez are all right-handed hitting outfielders, and Verdugo has been adequate against lefties, too.
In terms of the middle infield, Arroyo, Hernandez & whichever of Reyes/Chang are on the roster (couldn't imagine they would roster both), are all options. So Turner/Devers/Yoshida/Catcher are locked in & you need to pick 5 from Casas/Hernandez/Duvall/Refsnyder/Verdugo/Chang (or Reyes)/Arroyo.
There is definitely a version of that with Turner at 1st, Yoshida at DH, Chang/Arroyo MI & Ref/Hernandez/Duvall OF where Verdugo & Casas are sitting out which is fine...but do we really want those 2 guys sitting out against every lefty? & if not, Hernandez has to play in the IF which is suboptimal (or Duvall or Refsnyder are out of any role). & then when Story comes back, or Mondesi, there is even more of a logjam.
So there's really not a strong need for all of these players. So moving on from either Hernandez or Duvall, or even both if they fall further out of the playoff mix, makes a ton of sense to me, especially since they are both FA's after the season & they already chose to commit to Refsnyder.
All stats are wRC+ against righties/lefties this season unless stated otherwise:
C
McGuire 61/217
Wong 116/68
This seems super backwards, but let's chalk it up to SSS I guess? But they are both doing quite badly against the side of the platoon they are supposed to be primarily against.
1B
Casas 90/101
Turner 85/162
Casas has actually been better against lefties than righties this season. Maybe skewed by avoiding the tougher lefties? Turner has mashed lefties & been ~competent against righties
2B
Valdez 102/-68
Arroyo 110/52 (91/91 career)
Reyes 50/136
SS
Hernandez 78/78 (81/119 career)
Arroyo 110/52 (91/91 career)
Chang -8/113 (81/63 career)
3B
Devers 90/129 (132/99 career)
Turner 85/162
OF
Yoshida 155/122
Verdugo 136/93
Duran 117/67
Duvall 305/331 (97/104 career)
Refsnyder 68/170
Hernandez 78/78 (81/119 career)
So, ignoring the backwards catcher thing & kinda balancing the splits with defensive aptitude...
Against righties...
C McGuire
1B Casas
2B Valdez
SS Arroyo
3B Devers
LF Yoshida
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH Turner
Against lefties...
C Wong
1B Turner (or Casas)
2B Arroyo (or Reyes or Hernandez)
SS Reyes (or Hernandez or Chang)
3B Devers
LF Refsnyder (or Yoshida)
CF Hernandez (or Duvall)
RF Duvall (or Verdugo or Refsnyder)
DH Yoshida (or Turner)
Against righties it seems pretty straightforward to me. None of the SS options are lefty, but Arroyo has traditionally hit righties the best of the group, including this season, & is a competent SS.
Against lefties it gets much more complicated. Casas can absolutely play against lefties, & when he does, he should be at 1st & Turner should be at DH. Yoshida should play against everyone, either at DH or in LF if Turner is at DH. Refsnyder, Duvall & Hernandez are all right-handed hitting outfielders, and Verdugo has been adequate against lefties, too.
In terms of the middle infield, Arroyo, Hernandez & whichever of Reyes/Chang are on the roster (couldn't imagine they would roster both), are all options. So Turner/Devers/Yoshida/Catcher are locked in & you need to pick 5 from Casas/Hernandez/Duvall/Refsnyder/Verdugo/Chang (or Reyes)/Arroyo.
There is definitely a version of that with Turner at 1st, Yoshida at DH, Chang/Arroyo MI & Ref/Hernandez/Duvall OF where Verdugo & Casas are sitting out which is fine...but do we really want those 2 guys sitting out against every lefty? & if not, Hernandez has to play in the IF which is suboptimal (or Duvall or Refsnyder are out of any role). & then when Story comes back, or Mondesi, there is even more of a logjam.
So there's really not a strong need for all of these players. So moving on from either Hernandez or Duvall, or even both if they fall further out of the playoff mix, makes a ton of sense to me, especially since they are both FA's after the season & they already chose to commit to Refsnyder.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1668724025026048001
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1668723853965635590
Kiké no longer the starting SS
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1668723853965635590
Kiké no longer the starting SS
While moving Kiké of SS is 100% the right move, even making the statement that Casas should see less time at 1B is ridiculous.
It implies that Kiké's woes are somehow attributable to him, and it also will have diminishing returns on the kid's development. He hasn't been Keith Hernandez over there but I don't see a glaring weakness like Kiké's throws. Unlike Kiké he has a future at the position he is currently playing and like Devers should be given every opportunity and rep to improve upon his play.
I know Casas DRS numbers are as bad as Kiké's but I don't see how the situations are at all the same.
It implies that Kiké's woes are somehow attributable to him, and it also will have diminishing returns on the kid's development. He hasn't been Keith Hernandez over there but I don't see a glaring weakness like Kiké's throws. Unlike Kiké he has a future at the position he is currently playing and like Devers should be given every opportunity and rep to improve upon his play.
I know Casas DRS numbers are as bad as Kiké's but I don't see how the situations are at all the same.
Ah ... Casas also made an error, in the 10th, that allowed the 4th run to score in a 4-3 game.
They could also be doing this move off 1B with Casas to see if the move will help him at the plate. One less thing for him to think about.
They can be unrelated. Theyve both sucked. Kike will never be a good SS. Cora said they'll work with casas to get better. Which is a good idea. Not sure why anyone would object to a guy who's sucking at something getting some time away from that to work on getting better at it.
Last edited:
I think that is it 100% They mentioned on the broadcast that Cora is trying to get him to eliminate some portions of his pregame routine because of how overly complex he was making things.
Gee, that will probably hurt his feelings.
It's only June 14. 42% of the season. Maybe Cora should give him some more time.
The Kike move is about two weeks too late and the Casas move is about two weeks too early. Let's see how well Casas handles first when he has a shortstop making more accurate throws.
Frankly I'd rather Casas work on his defense in Worcester rather than just DHing here for a few weeks. Bring up Dalbec and give him a chance to showcase himself for a future trade.
Frankly I'd rather Casas work on his defense in Worcester rather than just DHing here for a few weeks. Bring up Dalbec and give him a chance to showcase himself for a future trade.
Expecting Dalbec to increase his trade value playing in Boston seems a bit naive at this point.
Every time Dalbec gets hot in Worcester and gets called up, he doesn't adjust very well and is very quickly a net negative offensive player. It's only when he was given a starting spot and allowed to go through ML growing pains that he started to really show something, but it didn't last and the end result was going back to Worcester. At the time, everybody pretty much said he's a AAAA player. I don't see how that may have changed in a few short weeks.
People need to get over the whole idea of them giving away games this season, because they weren't built to contend. I'd rather they finish dead last and give the kids all the time in the world to try to figure it out. Running Dalbec back out there seems counterproductive to the development of Casas, which should be paramount at this point. Dalbec will be trade bait for some team that hasn't figured out who he is yet, like Chavis was. He is not the answer.
Maybe I'm speaking for myself here, but I only enjoy wins. If they are going to lose, I don't care how ugly it is. A win is a win and a loss is a loss and they count the same no matter how you obtain them. I'm not entertained by this team, either, and wasn't last year. How could you be?
People need to get over the whole idea of them giving away games this season, because they weren't built to contend. I'd rather they finish dead last and give the kids all the time in the world to try to figure it out. Running Dalbec back out there seems counterproductive to the development of Casas, which should be paramount at this point. Dalbec will be trade bait for some team that hasn't figured out who he is yet, like Chavis was. He is not the answer.
Maybe I'm speaking for myself here, but I only enjoy wins. If they are going to lose, I don't care how ugly it is. A win is a win and a loss is a loss and they count the same no matter how you obtain them. I'm not entertained by this team, either, and wasn't last year. How could you be?