Who are the league's "#1"s

TomRicardo

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Ok I have a question for y’all. Over the last 24 hours I’ve read that LeBron isn’t a #1 anymore, Embiid is a “loser” and now Durant isn’t a #1. I’m sure if given the opportunity there would be cases for other elite players like Doncic or Brunson not being a #1. So how many #1’s are there in the league now? 4?5? If you don’t have one of these guys is your team destined for failure and by failure what would that look like?

There are teams like the Bucks or Sixers who are called failures but other teams without anyone close to having a #1 (or even a #2) like the Magic, Pacers, are said to have a bright future despite not having that #1?
Right now I would say:

Joker
SGA
Giannis
Brunson
Tatum
Luka

LeBron
Curry
Zion

With the fading out with age and health:

LeBron
Curry
Zion

Kawhi
Durant
Embiid

Upcoming:

Ant
Wemby
Haliburton

With (in no particular order) Booker, Brown, Murray, KAT, Kyrie, Davis, George, and Chet as your 1Bs / top wingmen

Donovan MItchell is somewhere in this ether as well. Ant may have arrived in the top group or will be in there by next year. I am probably missing somebody
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I don’t see any way to keep Ant out of that top group now
Yeah that was the first thing I noticed too. He's making a leap right in front of our eyes. History tells us that he'll likely face a roadblock this year before bursting through but he has it all. I'd also include this years version of Harden in the #1B list. He had a tremendous regular season and somehow has the Clippers 2-2 in this series with 26ppg, 73% TS%, 7 Assists, and made a game winning play down the stretch yesterday.
 

Euclis20

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I don’t see any way to keep Ant out of that top group now
Especially if Brunson is in that same group. The criteria is obviously pretty wide open, but Brunson hasn't done anything that Mitchell or Booker hasn't done, and remarkably he's the oldest of the three (barely, but still). I don't think there's anything that happens in the next couple of weeks that keeps Ant in particular out of that top group (and if Boston doesn't win the title, it will be pretty fashionable to have Ant higher than Tatum in league rankings going forward).

I hope it doesn't come at the expense of Boston, but it'd be nice seeing Curry get another all-NBA level teammate at some point. I think he's currently the best of the old guard (Lebron/Durant/Curry), but because since he doesn't have his own Booker/Davis, he didn't even get a chance this spring.
 

teddykgb

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Especially if Brunson is in that same group. The criteria is obviously pretty wide open, but Brunson hasn't done anything that Mitchell or Booker hasn't done, and remarkably he's the oldest of the three (barely, but still). I don't think there's anything that happens in the next couple of weeks that keeps Ant in particular out of that top group (and if Boston doesn't win the title, it will be pretty fashionable to have Ant higher than Tatum in league rankings going forward).

I hope it doesn't come at the expense of Boston, but it'd be nice seeing Curry get another all-NBA level teammate at some point. I think he's currently the best of the old guard (Lebron/Durant/Curry), but because since he doesn't have his own Booker/Davis, he didn't even get a chance this spring.
In all honesty I’d be surprised if Ant doesn’t leapfrog Tatum. Growth isn’t always linear and Tatum works really hard on his game but Ant really has everything and plays at a higher speed with more force. He and SGA both to me are fantastic players who need the spotlight of a finals to catch their due
 

TomRicardo

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In all honesty I’d be surprised if Ant doesn’t leapfrog Tatum. Growth isn’t always linear and Tatum works really hard on his game but Ant really has everything and plays at a higher speed with more force. He and SGA both to me are fantastic players who need the spotlight of a finals to catch their due
Ant disappears way more than Tatum does and is a less efficient scorer. He has a way to go reach Tatum. He has a bunch of 15-4-4 unengaged games including one against Phoenix in the playoffs.

Edit - Everything people here hate about Tatum, they would really hate about Ant. That said he is probably in that first group already.
 

jezza1918

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WRT to Ant being there already, just curious would people who are putting him there also have put Tatum in that grouping two years ago today? They were still two series wins away from making the championship, but he had also dispatched KD in an opening round series sweep. I personally would have them both as #1's.
 

Jimbodandy

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Ant disappears way more than Tatum does and is a less efficient scorer. He has a way to go reach Tatum. He has a bunch of 15-6-4 unengaged games including one against Phoenix in the playoffs.
Agree completely with this. People should be talking about Ant. He has turned himself into a stud. But when Teddy is writing that Ant and SGA are fantastic players--and I agree--they're at two different levels. SGA is a top 10 player in this league, so is Tatum. Ant is more like top 20. Today. If he keeps rising like he did this year, I can absolutely imagine the conversation this time next year about who he's bumping out of the top 10.
 

Euclis20

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In all honesty I’d be surprised if Ant doesn’t leapfrog Tatum. Growth isn’t always linear and Tatum works really hard on his game but Ant really has everything and plays at a higher speed with more force. He and SGA both to me are fantastic players who need the spotlight of a finals to catch their due
Ant certainly could pass Tatum, but it's interesting that their growth curves have been nearly identical:

81762

Tatum will never have Ant's explosive athleticism and core strength, while Ant will never have Tatum's height or shooting touch, but the path to the top of the league is the same for both guy: Neither is the best in the world at anything, but both guys are good to great at basically everything. They both settle too much on offense given their athleticism (Ant) and size (Tatum), and both guys are slightly less efficient offensively than the best players in the world. Balancing that out is the fact that the are both strong, versatile defenders, for which they'll never get enough credit.

He's not there yet but it shouldn't shock anyone here if Edwards passes Tatum, maybe as soon as next year.
 

TomRicardo

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Agree completely with this. People should be talking about Ant. He has turned himself into a stud. But when Teddy is writing that Ant and SGA are fantastic players--and I agree--they're at two different levels. SGA is a top 10 player in this league, so is Tatum. Ant is more like top 20. Today. If he keeps rising like he did this year, I can absolutely imagine the conversation this time next year about who he's bumping out of the top 10.
SGA is way better than Ant in pretty much all scopes of the game besides highlight reels.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Ant disappears way more than Tatum does and is a less efficient scorer. He has a way to go reach Tatum. He has a bunch of 15-4-4 unengaged games including one against Phoenix in the playoffs.

Edit - Everything people here hate about Tatum, they would really hate about Ant. That said he is probably in that first group already.
Before we talk about what a leap Ant has made, it will be interesting to see how he plays against a team that plays real defense. Not saying he isn't top 20 or top 15 but he hasn't really faced what we consider a "playoff-level" defense yet and won.
 

Jimbodandy

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Ant certainly could pass Tatum, but it's interesting that their growth curves have been nearly identical:

View attachment 81762

Tatum will never have Ant's explosive athleticism and core strength, while Ant will never have Tatum's height or shooting touch, but the path to the top of the league is the same for both guy: Neither is the best in the world at anything, but both guys are good to great at basically everything. They both settle too much on offense given their athleticism (Ant) and size (Tatum), and both guys are slightly less efficient offensively than the best players in the world. Balancing that out is the fact that the are both strong, versatile defenders, for which they'll never get enough credit.

He's not there yet but it shouldn't shock anyone here if Edwards passes Tatum, maybe as soon as next year.
It's certainly possible. The problem that he faces is that there just aren't a lot of 6'4" guys who can elevate their defense to a problematic level. He does great, and his wingspan for size is pretty damn good. But it's a 6" difference in standing reach. That matters. Edwards' advantage in athleticism will help him on the perimeter. He'll always be better than Tatum there. But Tatum is very good there and also can cover 1-5 except for the most giant 5's credibly. I'd be very surprised if any competent GM would consider trading Tatum for Edwards next year, contract status aside.
 

TomRicardo

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Before we talk about what a leap Ant has made, it will be interesting to see how he plays against a team that plays real defense. Not saying he isn't top 20 or top 15 but he hasn't really faced what we consider a "playoff-level" defense yet and won.
He is past the point where a good defense can constantly stymie him. His biggest problem is 25-30% of his games, he wakes and decides to be the biggest jackass in the world and plays like an asshole. Hate Tatum forcing ISO ball and making a bunch of fade away 3s, you might get that for a quarter, with Ant that is a full game. Suddenly out of no where Ant can be completely disengaged with defense at Luka like levels.

KAT and Rudy was over so many of his sins, but if he was all alone, he would be a poor man's Luka.
 

slamminsammya

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It's certainly possible. The problem that he faces is that there just aren't a lot of 6'4" guys who can elevate their defense to a problematic level. He does great, and his wingspan for size is pretty damn good. But it's a 6" difference in standing reach. That matters. Edwards' advantage in athleticism will help him on the perimeter. He'll always be better than Tatum there. But Tatum is very good there and also can cover 1-5 except for the most giant 5's credibly. I'd be very surprised if any competent GM would consider trading Tatum for Edwards next year, contract status aside.
edwards can turn his defense up to a level that i think tatum can’t reach. the swithchability thing is real but i don’t think it’s such a huge factor. ant can be very disruptive when he wants to be.
 

Kliq

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Probably the most limited interpretation of being a true #1 is if you can be the best player on a title-winning team. That is a position that is really limited to just a small number of players throughout history. Since the shot clock was introduced in 1954, that group is Pettit, Russell, Wilt, Jerry West, Kareem, Reed/Frazier, Cowens/Havlicek, Rick Barry, Bill Walton, Unseld/Hayes, various Supersonics, Moses, Bird, Magic, Isiah Thomas, Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, various Pistons, Dwyane Wade, KG, Kobe, Dirk, LeBron, Curry, Durant, Kawhi, Giannis and Jokic. That is a small list of guys, you have to be a top three player at a given time to crack that list.

Under that definition, if we are factoring in track record, only two guys currently would I say are definitely in their prime and in that conversation, Jokic and Giannis. Of course, we are factoring in some bias in that all of those players I listed above were true #1s before they even won the title, so its a bit of a chicken-or-egg case in that nobody under that definition can be a proven top guy on a title winning team unless they win a title.

I'd probably say the best definition would be anyone that is a sincere threat to make first team All-NBA in a season. To me at the moment that would be:

Jokic
Giannis
Luka
Tatum
SGA
Davis
Brunson
Booker
Edwards
Embiid


The NBA is kind of a hard place to truly answer that question at the moment, given the number of great players that have probably aged out of that conversation (LeBron, Durant, Curry) one complete mystery man (Harden) and guys with major durability concerns (Kawhi, Zion, to an extent Embiid).
 

Euclis20

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It's certainly possible. The problem that he faces is that there just aren't a lot of 6'4" guys who can elevate their defense to a problematic level. He does great, and his wingspan for size is pretty damn good. But it's a 6" difference in standing reach. That matters. Edwards' advantage in athleticism will help him on the perimeter. He'll always be better than Tatum there. But Tatum is very good there and also can cover 1-5 except for the most giant 5's credibly. I'd be very surprised if any competent GM would consider trading Tatum for Edwards next year, contract status aside.
I get the size thing, but he's basically the same height/weight/wingspan as Marcus Smart, and with infinitely more athleticism. He can absolutely be a problem defensively for opposing teams, even if he can't quite guard up as effectively as someone with Tatum's size.

SGA is way better than Ant in pretty much all scopes of the game besides highlight reels.
SGA is a better scorer, but I think Ant is already better defensively, and is three years younger. The exciting thing about Ant is the same thing that has been exciting about Tatum for years - he's incredibly good while also have some very clear weaknesses, meaning there is a very visible path for improvement. I don't see SGA as having all that much growth left, and with his frame and reliance on getting to the FT line, I think his playoff ceiling is definitely lower than Ant's.
 

Jimbodandy

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edwards can turn his defense up to a level that i think tatum can’t reach. the swithchability thing is real but i don’t think it’s such a huge factor. ant can be very disruptive when he wants to be.
Oh yeah. He's fantastic. He's disruptive, but he's 6'4" disruptive. He can blanket 1s, cover 2s and 3s, and anyone tall is going to shoot right over him. Gobert on the backend is helping him a lot (and I'm loathe to compliment that DB).

Ant is not a guy that anyone is going to target, but if Tatum, Porzingis, or Horford end up with this guy in the post, they're gonna eat.
 

TomRicardo

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SGA is a better scorer, but I think Ant is already better defensively, and is three years younger. The exciting thing about Ant is the same thing that has been exciting about Tatum for years - he's incredibly good while also have some very clear weaknesses, meaning there is a very visible path for improvement. I don't see SGA as having all that much growth left, and with his frame and reliance on getting to the FT line, I think his playoff ceiling is definitely lower than Ant's.
Ant isn't a better defender. Ant can decide for a couple of minutes to lock down a guy then go back to squirreling around playing poor team defense and getting bailed out by his supporting cast. Tatum can do this too and can do it 1-5, and return to team defense. SGA is much better over the course of 48 minute game.

Ant is Tik Tok NBA MVP. He is a really really good basketball player but he disappears. A lot of these guys now try to emulate their game to Kobe's but the problem is Kobe didn't disappear. Kobe was a dog. He would wear you down.

I want to see Ant play an entire postseason series at a Tatum level. Basically, can Ant play at least four games in a series where people here wouldn't lose their minds if he was Tatum? He has yet to do that in career.
 

slamminsammya

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Oh yeah. He's fantastic. He's disruptive, but he's 6'4" disruptive. He can blanket 1s, cover 2s and 3s, and anyone tall is going to shoot right over him. Gobert on the backend is helping him a lot (and I'm loathe to compliment that DB).

Ant is not a guy that anyone is going to target, but if Tatum, Porzingis, or Horford end up with this guy in the post, they're gonna eat.
he bothered tatum quite a bit when they played in minnesota. i don’t think he’s a pushover in the post but i’m also going off memory from the two celtics games.
 

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This exercise here is interesting but to me the more compelling argument is who current NBA players think a number one is. I know this isn't in response to the question being raised but I thought this chart from the Athletic anonymous player poll is kind of relevant.

I would add that this board had a similar skepticism around Curry's ascension and I get it. But I watch a lot of hoop like you all and I have no question about Edwards. I don't do takes here very often but he's a number one for me. He may not win this year but absent an injury I will be shocked if he doesn't have a championship when he retires.

81767
 

mauf

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Reading the whole discussion here, I think we’re trying to create a tier 1B between pantheon guys (i.e., players we will eventually discuss as among the 10-20 players in the game’s history) and garden-variety Hall of Famers — a distinction which, given Springfield’s relatively lax standards, encompasses the vast majority of guys who make an All-NBA first team at some point in their careers.

LeBron and Curry are pantheon guys. Durant probably is too. None of these guys are at that level anymore (though I guess a couple folks here would argue Curry still is). I don’t think any players currently in their primes are locks to make that level; Giannis and Jokic are on track but need at least a few more elite seasons. A few young guys appear to have a shot, with Doncic topping that list. Ant has a chance to make it and Tatum doesn’t, which is why some people like Ant better, but I’d take Tatum over Ant’s 50th percentile projection. Both are good enough to be the best player on a championship team, which I’d argue is a larger group than most people here think.

Probably the most limited interpretation of being a true #1 is if you can be the best player on a title-winning team. That is a position that is really limited to just a small number of players throughout history. Since the shot clock was introduced in 1954, that group is Pettit, Russell, Wilt, Jerry West, Kareem, Reed/Frazier, Cowens/Havlicek, Rick Barry, Bill Walton, Unseld/Hayes, various Supersonics, Moses, Bird, Magic, Isiah Thomas, Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, various Pistons, Dwyane Wade, KG, Kobe, Dirk, LeBron, Curry, Durant, Kawhi, Giannis and Jokic. That is a small list of guys, you have to be a top three player at a given time to crack that list.
See, I think this is circular. Ewing has at least one ring if his supporting casts were as good as Olajuwon’s. KG has zero if he isn’t traded to Boston prior to his last peak season, or if a couple bounces don’t go the C’s way against the Cavs that year. Ditto for Moses if he’s never traded to Philly, or Wade if he doesn’t play alongside Shaq. Once you get past the pantheon guys on this list (post-1980, that’s Bird, Magic, Jordan, Shaq, LeBron, Curry and maybe Duncan and Kobe), there isn’t much separating the other guys from contemporaries who either didn’t have the teammates or didn’t get the bounces.
 
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RorschachsMask

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Ant and Tatum are really similar players, just go about it a little differently. Obviously Ant is just an absurd athlete, and Tatum is much bigger. Ant has the Pierce/Embiid charisma on top of it, which people are falling in love with.

I’d take Tatum right now, but Ant is one of the very few guys in the league that I could see passing him. He just needs to keep his knees healthy, has had issues on and off IIRC.

I’m one of the people who thinks Minny beats Denver, and that’s who we’d play in the finals.
 

Kliq

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Reading the whole discussion here, I think we’re trying to create a tier 1B between pantheon guys (i.e., players we will eventually discuss as among the 10-20 players in the game’s history) and garden-variety Hall of Famers — a distinction which, given Springfield’s relatively lax standards, encompasses the vast majority of guys who make an All-NBA first team at some point in their careers.

LeBron and Curry are pantheon guys. Durant probably is too. None of these guys are at that level anymore (though I guess a couple folks here would argue Curry still is). I don’t think any players currently in their primes are locks to make that level; Giannis and Jokic are on track but need at least a few more elite seasons. A few young guys appear to have a shot, with Doncic topping that list. Ant has a chance to make it and Tatum doesn’t, which is why some people like Ant better, but I’d take Tatum over Ant’s 50th percentile projection. Both are good enough to be the best player on a championship team, which I’d argue is a larger group than most people here think.



See, I think this is circular. Ewing has at least one ring if his supporting casts were as good as Olajuwon’s. KG has zero if he isn’t traded to Boston prior to his last peak season, or if a couple bounces don’t go the C’s way against the Cavs that year. Ditto for Moses if he’s never traded to Philly, or Wade if he doesn’t play alongside Shaq. Once you get past the pantheon guys on this list (post-1980, that’s Bird, Magic, Jordan, Shaq, LeBron, Curry and maybe Kobe), there isn’t much separating the other guys on this list from contemporaries who either didn’t have the teammates or didn’t get the bounces.
I understand your point, that situation and support matters, and in terms of all-time rankings, that is not how people would rank the Top 25 players ever or anything. I'm just pointing out that a very limited number of NBA players have been the best player on titles team, because generally the team with the best player wins a series. And there is a very small number of guys active, in their primes, at that level at the same time.

I disagree that the difference between Olajuwon and Ewing is the supporting cast--Ewing came up small in the clutch a lot and Olajuwon was a freaking killer. You could argue that Ewing's supporting cast in 1994 was better than Olajuwon's when they met in the Finals.
 

TomRicardo

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This exercise here is interesting but to me the more compelling argument is who current NBA players think a number one is. I know this isn't in response to the question being raised but I thought this chart from the Athletic anonymous player poll is kind of relevant.

I would add that this board had a similar skepticism around Curry's ascension and I get it. But I watch a lot of hoop like you all and I have no question about Edwards. I don't do takes here very often but he's a number one for me. He may not win this year but absent an injury I will be shocked if he doesn't have a championship when he retires.
I do think Ant is a lock to be No.1 whether it be now or in the future (I think he needs a bit more maturing but I could be wrong) but I can see a world where he never gets a Championship or even to the Finals. Being in the West with Joker, the Thunder, and then Wemby doesn't leave a lot of holes.

Also the 9% of people that would start their team with Luka are smoking crack.
 

the moops

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Ant is Tik Tok NBA MVP. He is a really really good basketball player but he disappears
Say what now?

In the playoffs, compared to regular season Ant scores more points on higher efficiency, gets more rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists, all while turning the ball over less.

And he is only 22 years
 

TomRicardo

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Say what now?

In the playoffs, compared to regular season Ant scores more points on higher efficiency, gets more rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists, all while turning the ball over less.

And he is only 22 years
If you completely ignore game 2, absolutely. Also I am not sure what framework you are going by but your statement is factually wrong any way you cut it. He has more turnovers this postseason as compared to the season but if you are talking career wise he shoots a bit better in the regular season. All that said who cares. He is really really good.

He is only 22 like you said. He is going to disappear, it happens. Ant isn't quite where Tatum or SGA are now, but he is a top ten player. Unless he gets a horrendous injury, he is going to be a guy that can be #1 on championship team in the next couple of years. His real issue is there is a really tough window because of Joker, OKC, and Wemby.
 

BigSoxFan

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If you completely ignore game 2, absolutely. Also I am not sure what framework you are going by but your statement is factually wrong any way you cut it. He has more turnovers this postseason as compared to the season but if you are talking career wise he shoots a bit better in the regular season. All that said who cares. He is really really good.

He is only 22 like you said. He is going to disappear, it happens. Ant isn't quite where Tatum or SGA are now, but he is a top ten player. Unless he gets a horrendous injury, he is going to be a guy that can be #1 on championship team in the next couple of years. His real issue is there is a really tough window because of Joker, OKC, and Wemby.
The other problem is that Ant’s supporting cast is either 1) always hurt (Towns) or 2) aging out (Gobert/Conley). And the Gobert trade of all their near-term picks will make replacing those guys very difficult so this could be a tight window for this team.
 

the moops

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Also I am not sure what framework you are going by but your statement is factually wrong any way you cut it. He has more turnovers this postseason as compared to the season but if you are talking career wise he shoots a bit better in the regular season.
Don't think so.

He is a much better shooter in the playoffs than the regular season. Career numbers

Playoffs TS% .615
Regular season TS% .558

Playoffs turnovers 2.6 per game
Regular season 2.8 per game
 

TomRicardo

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Don't think so.

He is a much better shooter in the playoffs than the regular season. Career numbers

Playoffs TS% .615
Regular season TS% .558

Playoffs turnovers 2.6 per game
Regular season 2.8 per game
Ok we are talking career not this season which is weird but ok. His rebounding, blocks, and fouls are down from his career playoff stats. Once again doesn't matter. He is still able to disappear completely for games but he is only 22 and is well on track to be the guy.
 

the moops

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Ok we are talking career not this season which is weird but ok. His rebounding, blocks, and fouls are down from his career playoff stats. Once again doesn't matter. He is still able to disappear completely for games but he is only 22 and is well on track to be the guy.
I find 15 games to be a better barometer than 4. Also I have no idea what you are even arguing :)
 

TomRicardo

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I find 15 games to be a better barometer than 4. Also I have no idea what you are even arguing :)
Yea it didn't matter.

I think everyone agrees he is near there or there, this probably isn't the year he fully breaks through with a Championship.
 

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Oddly enough, Darko has Ant tied at #19 with, of all people, his teammate KAT at 3.5. For Ant: 3.1 ODPM/0.4 DDPM, Towns is 1.8ODPM/1.8DDPM.

For comps:
0.4 DDPM - Trey Murphy, Kelly Olynyk, T.J. Warren, Jaxson Hayes, Jalen McDaniels
3.1 ODPM - Paul George, James Harden

Now, in the "who would you rather have over the next few years" question, he already jumps over a whole bunch of the guys ahead of him.

BBRef seems to like his defense a little better but not much. Overall they have Ant at #32 in BPM, between Chet and Maxey. Similar to Paul George again overall. This seems a little low.
 

lovegtm

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Yea it didn't matter.

I think everyone agrees he is near there or there, this probably isn't the year he fully breaks through with a Championship.
It's as good a shot at a title as the Wolves might have for awhile. Murray is hurt, and they match up great with Boston and Denver. Odds are always with the field, but Minnesota is GOOD.
 

TomRicardo

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It's as good a shot at a title as the Wolves might have for awhile. Murray is hurt, and they match up great with Boston and Denver. Odds are always with the field, but Minnesota is GOOD.
I don't think they match up well against Boston though they got a short handed Boston to overtime twice. I would bet Boston in seven game series.

Edit - and KP started limping right about when I wrote that so... I blame you
 
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