And lose out on MHJ? I can see the logic behind it for sure, but MHJ is a game changer.
Who do YOU want Pats to end up with in draft?
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Sure, but they also play better competition than Wyoming, I'm asking in terms of how comparable their talent is in relation to opponents.
I don't think any one non-QB is really a game-changer. If I'm picking that high, I want a QB, or I want to turn it into multiple pieces.
I doubt it. I think Daniels is rising fast though, and that's more on how he's playing than Maye maybe coming back to him.
The Athletic just published Dane Brugler's first mock and he has the Pats taking Maye at #3, with this comment:
He does have Jayden Daniels rocketing up the board and going #7 to TB.
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Bears take Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels crashes top 10 - The Athletic
They have some good talent. Devontez Walker is a stud and future NFL player. Their RB Hampton is having a big year and he looks good to me. Not really sure about the OL but it’s not like Maye doesn’t have anything to work with.
I like MHJ.... I don't think he's the best WR prospect in 25 years by a mile, and he'd have to be that to be worth taking over a QB or over the haul you get for a top 2 QB tradeup. Even then I probably wouldn't do it. A Jamar Chase type can't miss stud is awesome.... but he doesn't do much if your QB or line are bad. I'd much rather get more assets and take Franklin, Thomas, Egbuka or something in the 2nd or trade to late 1st for a slider (Odunze?)... or sign Tee Higgins. I think the value of a QB whether you take him, or you turn him into another top 6-8 pick plus a bunch of other assets is way higher than MHJ. You might even get your stud WR in the trade down (like Moore last year).
Their O-line is not that good, particularly compared to the lines of the guys putting up top numbers (Penix, Nix).
UNC was ranked around 20 in the pre-season and fell out of the top 25 after a lack luster season. They obv aren't an LSU/BAMA/Michigan but do have some talent. Their D was pretty horrendous but Maye had a disappointing season any way you look at it. His stats across the board are down this season compared to last. I like Josh Downs but if Maye's #s were impacted that much from losing Downs I'd be concerned.
Walker and Maye really didn't start playing football together until like October of this year. Walker started his college career at NC Central, then played 2 seasons at Kent State, before transferring to UNC. The NCAA denied him eligibility when the season started, claiming he was a 2 time transfer even though he never played a snap for NC Central. They reversed their decision in early October, after he missed the first 4 games or so of the season, so they've really not had a ton of time to work on chemistry.
If the Pats end up with Maye, I'd love to get Walker later on and put a couple teammates together a la Burrow/Chase, Tua/Waddle and Hurts/Smith. Although I want Walker to add a bit more size (175 pounds) to his 6'3 frame.
Maye's stats are also depressed a bit because he's been forced to run so much (he's got 450 yards rushing and 9 rushing touchdowns this season).
I love the kid, but obviously, there are months and months and months of scouting and pro days and combines still to come, so who knows. Right now, he reminds me more of Josh Allen than anyone.
I see your argument here, and gun to head I think trading out of top 3 is probably the move, but stud WR has become the 2nd most individually important position in the NFL. If they don't go QB (lord help me) I think I'd rather see them go WR R1 and OT R2. Although this draft feels deeper at WR then OT, getting a truly elite WR1 instead of a solid WR 2 feels like a bigger gap in impact then the gap between an elite OT like Fashanu and solid OT's a bit farther down the board.
Bust rates need to be considered here- I believe WR's bust at a higher rate then OT's; at the very least I feel like they have higher variance in rookie contract production- but when you are down as bad as the Pat's are, you need to take some swings to get back to playoff contention.
One thing worth noting... it isn't Solid WR 2 vs. Elite WR 1. Guys drafted late 1st and early 2nd are often also WR 1s. Maybe you don't get Chase, but you can get a WR 1 there.
Here are guys drafted between 25 and 55 recently:
2019- Hollywood Brown, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown
2020- Aiyuk, Higgins, Pittman
2022- CHristian Watson, Pickens
2023- Jayden Reed
Lot of those guys are more #1 or very top end #2 type guys.
#1 WR aren't really game changers without the QB either. Garrett Wilson is a great receiver but it doesn't really translate into wins for the Jets. Same for Chris Olave in New Orleans. You need the guy to get them the ball in order for them to be game changers. Chase isn't nearly as impactful without Burrow.
I voted MHJ in the poll originally but I think I'm now a QB or trade down voter.
I voted MHJ in the poll originally but I think I'm now a QB or trade down voter.
I think Hampton is more of a sure thing than Walker actually. Total stud. Kind of like Rham but better in the A gap.
Walker was helped by other talented receivers taking the coverage
Busts are busts, they happen. The point was more, the idea that you only get #1 WRs in the top 5 or top 10 isn't particularly accurate, many WR 1s get drafted late.
I like the thought on Big Ben as a thrower, and a guy who can move around is tough to bring down in the pocket, but Maye is a different guy in space. Way more athletic than Big Ben, who ran a 4.75 at the combine. I suspect we'll see Maye around 4.60, maybe lower.
Yeah, it's quite possible they said Big Ben, but more athletic. I'm sure we'll see lots of comparisons. Evan Lazar compares him to Justin Herbert.
I’ll be interested to see how my binky, Michael Pratt of Tulane, grades out in comparison to the other QBs.
In fairness this is a terrible example. ‘91 was a one QB draft and the Patriots passed on that QB twice with the picks they got for Russell Maryland (three times if you include the fact that when that QB went on the market (because the Falcons already had Chris Miller) they declined to trade for him). Overall ‘91 was just a pretty bad draft.
Herbert is the comp Dane Brugler uses too. Dane has him as the #1 player on his board.
If both Maye and Harrison are there, I'm leaning more Maye as of late. I don't know, his film is just...inspiring? I've seen the Big Ben and the Herbert comparisons, but he really reminds me a little bit of both. The toughness and physicality of Ben, but the arm of Herbert. Not every ball he throws is as pretty as Herbert's, but it's always on the money and he can do it while moving around the pocket. Extends plays really well. Tough to take down. Eyes always downfield. Love it.
But if they end up with Harrison and Penix I will be really, really fucking pumped. Especially if they also sign one of the big name FA WRs too.
But if they end up with Harrison and Penix I will be really, really fucking pumped. Especially if they also sign one of the big name FA WRs too.
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The good news is we need both a WR and a QB and if we stay at #3 we get either QB 1a or 1b or WR 1. And no matter which guy we get, there are several other QBs and WRs in this draft that will instill confidence and optimism back into the fanbase.
Just don't fuck it up Bill, because I could see him trading #3 for someone's mid-1st this year, their inevitable mid-late 1st next year, their second this year, and their second next year. Then he keeps trading all of those picks and once again we end up with a roster full of JAGs and a garbage QB.
Just don't fuck it up Bill, because I could see him trading #3 for someone's mid-1st this year, their inevitable mid-late 1st next year, their second this year, and their second next year. Then he keeps trading all of those picks and once again we end up with a roster full of JAGs and a garbage QB.
Yeah, if they don't like the top two guys, I'm not one to judge. But to draft a non-QB in that spot is insane.
What will this board look like in a couple of years if the Pats pass on both Williams and Maye, and one or both of them becomes a stud? We will clearly never get over the loss of Mookie but if they pass on these guys they better get the Dallas/Hershel Walker haul.
(1) They're not passing on Williams, if only because they're not getting to #1 (barring a trade, anyways)
(2) They are well aware of working for a team with a fanbase that will never forget Mookie getting shipped out, which, if anything, reinforces the notion that they should ignore the fan base. If they like Maye based on their assessment of him they will take him, if not they won't and in all likelihood will be comfortable with the judgment they made.
I share this dream. I watch a lot of Michigan games, and JJ has all the tools. He needs some more experience (the wolverines don’t air it out much), but his character and work ethic are off the charts. He’s a way way better player than Nix was at the same age
For sure. It was a truly lousy first round. I’m just speaking to the broader case of trading down to get pieces instead of a QB. There’s QBs to be had this year. We need one. Don’t overthink it if we have a chance to land one.
If the Pats get a potential QB1 AND Odunze in the first round, its run through the wall time for me - obviously we ARE dreaming.
That said, whomever misses out on Nabers and gets Odunze instead may not be missing out. Rome is likely going to be a real weapon at the next level - the WRs in this draft feel pretty good too.
The Pats ending up with a top 3 pick will result in this board being the most angry we have ever been with a draft. It’s basically guaranteed.
Then again, there will be a mad, exhilarated scramble to be the 78533798th person to make the 534909643327898322nd joke about Bill trading a first rounder for 30 7th rounders so he can take 25 long snappers, 4 players from D-II schools, and trade the last pick for a 2026 6th rounder. Who would wanna miss that? It gets funnier and more clever by the telling.
If they end up with the 2nd pick and do anything but pick a QB, I will lose my mind.
They have to take that shot on a QB, you cannot survive without one.
Here are the 7 QBs that made the AFC playoffs last year, and a bonus guy who wasn't eligible.
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Lamar Jackson
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Bonus: CJ Stroud
They are all unlikely to be moving from their teams anytime soon. The oldest guy on the list is Mahomes. He's only 28.
If you don't have a QB that at least has the traits to possibly develop into a guy that fits in on that list, you're fighting with two hands tied behind your back for the rest of the decade.
It's near impossible to find those guys anywhere but at the top of the draft. They don't move in free agency/trades until they're aging out.
Every guy on that list was picked by their current team in the first round. All but Lamar were picked in the top 10.
This is such a rare chance for the Patriots to at least take a swing on finding a guy. You can't just pass and think, ah we'll find a guy later.
It's tough to get a pick high to ensure you have a chance. I mean, they're 2-9 and they're still not in the top 2 of the draft right now.
If they have the opportunity to take the swing, they can't leave the bat on their shoulder.
They have to take that shot on a QB, you cannot survive without one.
Here are the 7 QBs that made the AFC playoffs last year, and a bonus guy who wasn't eligible.
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Lamar Jackson
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Bonus: CJ Stroud
They are all unlikely to be moving from their teams anytime soon. The oldest guy on the list is Mahomes. He's only 28.
If you don't have a QB that at least has the traits to possibly develop into a guy that fits in on that list, you're fighting with two hands tied behind your back for the rest of the decade.
It's near impossible to find those guys anywhere but at the top of the draft. They don't move in free agency/trades until they're aging out.
Every guy on that list was picked by their current team in the first round. All but Lamar were picked in the top 10.
This is such a rare chance for the Patriots to at least take a swing on finding a guy. You can't just pass and think, ah we'll find a guy later.
It's tough to get a pick high to ensure you have a chance. I mean, they're 2-9 and they're still not in the top 2 of the draft right now.
If they have the opportunity to take the swing, they can't leave the bat on their shoulder.
How do Maye and Williams compare to Stroud as prospects at this point in their careers? I don’t remember him being talked about in awed tones, but he’s having the kind of impact I imagine we’re all dreaming of.
The Athletic (Dane Brugler) put out a mock today where they had Caleb #1 to the Bears, MHJ #2 to the Cards & Maye #3 to the Patriots. Seems like a great but unlikely result.
https://theathletic.com/5096030/2023/11/29/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams-drake-maye-bears-cardinals/
Probably not possible as the Bears will want to move on from Fields. And the Pats have too many other holes to give up all their remaining draft capital.
The potential upside for the Pats is that the Panthers have no incentive to tank and have a new coach, so they could win a couple of late season games while playing the spoiler role.
I don’t think this is true. I think the general consensus is that Maye and Williams are both the best QB prospects since Lawrence
At the very least I remember Brugler and others saying around draft time last year that Young/Stroud/Richardson would all be behind Williams and Maye.
Correct. I think there’s some recency bias going on with Stroud since he’s been good in the NFL
If Carolina wins a game or two and the Pats are at #1 how about if they trade their #1, their second-round pick this year or next year's first-round (or both) to Chicago for both their first round picks and Justin Fields? Pats get two top ten picks, one of which is MHJ, and a QB. Bears get their guaranteed slot to draft Williams or Maye as the Pats won't want either. I don't see the Bears finishing ahead of (or behind, depending on your perspective) the Giants, and if the Cards decide to move on from Murray then they'll miss out on both.
Is that lopsided/ ridiculous? Or is Fields established as worthless?
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The speculation on Fields recently was he would get back an early 3rd maybe. So not insane, but also I don't think trading out of the full rookie deals of Williams/Maye for 1 year of Fields (2 if you commit to the $23M option) makes any sense. In that type of scenario (the unlikely one of CAR winning 2 games and CHI being set on one QB at all costs) I think you trade down with picks take the other of the top 2 QBs then add Alt/Fashanu at the Bears pick. Overall though, my guess is CHI would also rather have 2 of the top 5 players in this draft than the #1 pick. However, seems highly likely they'll be lucky enough to get both.
If the Pats use their pick on a QB we will be the Panthers next season with the drafts top QB getting crushed because we put the cart before the horse. Most of today's top QB's are guess what, not top end draft picks! Let's build the roster first as we literally need every position almost and then worry about a QB. Carolina because of being stupid now has a QB wasting away on a @##@ team that will take his entire rookie contract to get right and by that time guess what.....
All Monday night told me about Fields is that he's not going to be in Chicago, and that coaching staff shouldn't be either. When you talk about not setting a player up to succeed that is it. I don't think Fields processes well enough to be an NFL starter, but a gameplan where you all but announce you won't throw downfield is insane against a defense that wants to blitz all the time, even more so when one of your QB's better skills is his ability to buy some time then let it rip.