Why is the NFL playing bad football now?

[TomRicardo]

Got to say, the NFL games I have been watching this season (outside the Pats who are just a bad team with a terrible QB) have been terrible. Like last night's MNF game was a really poorly played football game. It is so late in the season and the only team that looks like they have their shit together is the Eagles. I heard that the Ravens have been pretty together but I will be honest I haven't seen much of them. I assume the 49ers will get themselves together too but otherwise the NFL has been tough to watch.

What is going on?

 

[tims4wins]

Very few elite QBs IMO is the biggest issue.

 

[Bongorific]

Not enough practices with contact?

 

[joe dokes]

I think the "college" offenses that began to predominate were not terribly complex, and that now-more-athletic-than-ever defenses have caught up to and surpassed the schemes of those offenses.

Very few elite QBs IMO is the biggest issue.

I think this gets at the heart of it. I'm not a fan of trying to determine who is "elite," but I dont think there can be much doubt that there are not enough QBs equipped to beat NFL defenses that have caught up to the offensive schemes.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Offensive line play is not good league wide. Very few teams have both a good QB and a good line, and it shows. Depth at Tackle in particular is bad league wide.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It feels to me as though there is an imbalance between the offensive and defensive lines. I would actually favor a game where QBs got another .5 second, but the rules weren't as stacked against defenders and they could be a little more physical with receivers.

But, to me, the biggest problem is that there are not enough offensive linemen in the pipeline, they get injured, and the rules are stacked against them. I also think that it's putting an emphasis on a particular type of QB that is not the most entertaining. I don't love scramble football -- right now it seems that so many games are decided based on who has a QB that can turn a 7-16 first down conversions to a 9-16 by scrambling. To me, scrambling is shit offense and it punishes good defenses. You can coach up a defense to scheme and defend really well, but you get punished by a super mobile QB who can use the width of the field to pick up first downs against very good defense. It's all part of the game, and I'm not denigrating the teams that do it well because they are taking advantage of the game as it exists. But it's boring football to me, and, more important, the teams that can't do that particularly well are just under constant pressure and it gets boring to watch.

That said, chaos is entertaining too and so last night's game (as an example) was still ok to watch, though I much preferred the Chargers v. Lions.

 

[snowmanny]

TNF: Bears-Panthers
Sunday AM: Pats-Colts
SNF: Jets-Raiders
MNF: Bills-Broncos

these feature games this week have all sucked in terms of football play, even if they were all very close.

 

[tims4wins]

It feels to me as though there is an imbalance between the offensive and defensive lines. I would actually favor a game where QBs got another .5 second, but the rules weren't as stacked against defenders and they could be a little more physical with receivers.

But, to me, the biggest problem is that there are not enough offensive linemen in the pipeline, they get injured, and the rules are stacked against them. I also think that it's putting an emphasis on a particular type of QB that is not the most entertaining. I don't love scramble football -- right now it seems that so many games are decided based on who has a QB that can turn a 7-16 first down conversions to a 9-16 by scrambling. To me, scrambling is shit offense and it punishes good defenses. You can coach up a defense to scheme and defend really well, but you get punished by a super mobile QB who can use the width of the field to pick up first downs against very good defense. It's all part of the game, and I'm not denigrating the teams that do it well because they are taking advantage of the game as it exists. But it's boring football to me, and, more important, the teams that can't do that particularly well are just under constant pressure and it gets boring to watch.

That said, chaos is entertaining too and so last night's game (as an example) was still ok to watch, though I much preferred the Chargers v. Lions.

Very well put.

Mentioned up thread but the practice rules are likely playing a part, especially with O line play.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I've watched a lot of non-Patriots football this season and the other thing that jumps out to me is that I've seen more -- for lack of a better word -- stupid plays. Pre-snap penalties, poorly designed plays, simple execution issues and more. Maybe it's practice time problems, but my goodness you can't see a team play a clean game anymore

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Very few elite QBs IMO is the biggest issue.

Agree with this. Playing QB is among the most difficult things to do in all of sports. So what does the NFL, in its infinite wisdom, do? It changes the rules to make having a QB even more important to success.

I don't watch much football anymore but aren't most teams running basically the same stuff on both sides of the ball?

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Got to say, the NFL games I have been watching this season (outside the Pats who are just a bad team with a terrible QB) have been terrible. Like last night's MNF game was a really poorly played football game. It is so late in the season and the only team that looks like they have their shit together is the Eagles. I heard that the Ravens have been pretty together but I will be honest I haven't seen much of them. I assume the 49ers will get themselves together too but otherwise the NFL has been tough to watch.

What is going on?

They've also lost three games where their win expectancy was something like 85% or higher. So while they might have their shit together sometimes, losing games where you're that far ahead is just bad.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

The decision making league wide is down. It’s like some illness went around destroying their cognitive ability. I don’t have the numbers but I’m guessing INTs are up this year. I thought it might be that football isn’t as exciting now that the Pats are awful but it’s really more than that. Appreciate the thread starter. It is absolutely noticeable this year.

 

[Bergs]

Adding to the chorus of OL play being down across the board, compounded by empty backfields and the demise of the FB and blocking TE roles in the modern NFL.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Limited practice time per the last 2 CBAs. Teams do not break camp anywhere near clicking on all cylinders, and it seems to be later and later into the season before they do.

As noted above, the adoption of college offenses, which are not that complex, and rely more on athleticism, have been caught up with and figured out by defenses.

The game is now absurdly over legislated, and inconsistently enforced. Not only do the number of penalties/flags being thrown bog down the flow and entertainment value of the games, I wonder if they are making players hesitant, confused, second guessing their actions, and not playing with quite the same level of aggression, and quick twitch reactions.

 

[Jimbodandy]

As much as we want to attribute it to bad QB and bad OL play, I'd argue that defenses are just ahead of the curve at the moment. Edge rushing has gotten better overall, and teams seem to have developed pretty sophisticated schemes to stunt and delay blitz, and offenses/rules haven't caught up.

Much in the way that the league tightened the rules on defending passes twenty years ago, I wouldn't be surprised if the league is looking for ways to slow down QB pressures. Allowing a little more holding for example.

 

[mauf]

Some of y’all don’t appreciate good defensive football.

NFL teams are averaging 21.8 PPG this season after averaging 21.9 PPG last year, which itself was the lowest figure since teams averaged 21.7 PPG in 2017, which is the lowest average since 2009 (21.5). So if scoring dips a bit as the weather turns cold, this year will be a 14-year low for scoring. Fumble and interception rates are materially lower than they were back then, so it’s not like the game got sloppy — we’re just finally seeing the pendulum swing back toward defense. It’s about time.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The decision making league wide is down. It’s like some illness went around destroying their cognitive ability. I don’t have the numbers but I’m guessing INTs are up this year. I thought it might be that football isn’t as exciting now that the Pats are awful but it’s really more than that. Appreciate the thread starter. It is absolutely noticeable this year.

I think part of it is everything happens faster now. O-lines can't hold up as long, QBs have to make quicker decisions or throw on the run, DBs/LBs are consistently faster so windows close faster.
Mac is a great example to me... 15 years ago Mac can make a lot more throws than he can now. More time to survey the defense, and his fringy arm is less concerning because the DBs wouldn't generally close as fast.

 

[tims4wins]

Some of y’all don’t appreciate good defensive football.

NFL teams are averaging 21.8 PPG this season after averaging 21.9 PPG last year, which itself was the lowest figure since teams averaged 21.7 PPG in 2017, which is the lowest average since 2009 (21.5). So if scoring dips a bit as the weather turns cold, this year will be a 14-year low for scoring. Fumble and interception rates are materially lower than they were back then, so it’s not like the game got sloppy — we’re just finally seeing the pendulum swing back toward defense. It’s about time.

I love good defensive football and thought scoring was way too high for a good 12-15 years.

But do the current games feel more like good defensive football to you? Or bad offensive football? Maybe this is just colored by watching teams like the Pats, Jets, and Giants, but those offenses suck even against bad defenses.

 

[luckiestman]

Here is what Bing tells me is the difference between Gibbs schedule for the Hogs and what the NFL allows now. It is substantial.



One of the factors that contributed to their success was their practice schedule on game week, which was more intense and demanding than the current 2023 rules. According to a former Hogs player, Joe Jacoby, the team practiced twice a day on Wednesday and Thursday, and once on Friday. They also had a walk-through on Saturday before the game on Sunday. The practices were usually in full pads and involved a lot of contact drills, such as one-on-one pass protection, run blocking, and blitz pickup. The Hogs also had to learn and execute different plays and schemes, depending on the opponent and the game plan. Jacoby said that the practices were “very physical and very tough”, but they also made the team “very prepared and very confident”2
In contrast, the 2023 rules limit the amount and intensity of practice sessions, in order to protect the players from unnecessary risk and injury. For example, teams are only allowed to have one full-contact practice per week during the regular season, and no more than three hours of padded practice per day during training camp.
Therefore, the Hogs’ practice schedule on game week was very different from the 2023 rules, and it may have given them an edge over their opponents.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I'm not going to even get into the officiating. It's been as bad this year as it's ever been.

But I will say that most of the complaints here seem related to the offense. There's been a LOT of great football being played on the other side of the ball that's causing these offenses to look bad. The athleticism on that side of the ball is like nothing we've seen in NFL history. Absolutely massive humans running 4.5's, sideline to sideline, the game is changing again.

The offensive line play is what it is, some teams (like the Pats) have tons of injuries, which is normal throughout the season. I can't blame lack of practice for any of this, it's week 11 at this point. There are offensive teams that have found a very good balance between throwing/running, like Miami/Philly/SF/Detroit/Baltimore. Speed, speed and more speed in a lot of cases, or just great schemes.

I've watched just about every game that I can possibly watch for a long time, and I wouldn't say this year is any different than others as far as stupid plays. There's been a lot of stupid in the NFL for a long time. I think what we're seeing is defenses catching up to offenses a bit though.

And the entertainment value is still there and then some. 6 games ending in a weekend on game winning field goals is crazy pants shit.

 

[Kliq]

As much as we want to attribute it to bad QB and bad OL play, I'd argue that defenses are just ahead of the curve at the moment. Edge rushing has gotten better overall, and teams seem to have developed pretty sophisticated schemes to stunt and delay blitz, and offenses/rules haven't caught up.

Much in the way that the league tightened the rules on defending passes twenty years ago, I wouldn't be surprised if the league is looking for ways to slow down QB pressures. Allowing a little more holding for example.

Defenses are ahead of the curve, after being behind the curve due to rule changes and offensive innovations in prior years. It's one of the cool things about football to me, it's a constant chess match between the offense and defense in terms of scheming and personnel, and rarely is it an even battle.

It took years for defenses to catch up to the chances, but now you see it, particularly with a focus on speed and range of coverage on that end. Linebackers are much smaller now, gone are the Brandon Spikes of the world, the 265lb thumper who stopped the run--the best linebackers are basically the size of strong safeties from 20 years ago. You also don't see the prototypical Wilfork/Ted Washington nose tackle anymore--instead defensive tackles are lighter and more explosive, similar to Aaron Donald. There are also in general, more defensive backs on the field then ever before, which puts a premium on secondary depth. For all the problems the Patriots have, one thing they have successfully done over the last two seasons is get a lot faster on defense.


I do think there is a problem with QB play and QB development that has a number of factors that has led to some truly wretched QB this year:

1. Offenses are now built entirely around QBs. If in the past a QB was responsible for like, 50% of your offense, then having a mediocre QB wasn't a deal-breaker. If that number is now around 70% of your offense, then having a lousy QB really handicaps how teams can move the ball. Conversely, if you are fortunate enough to have an elite QB, it makes a much bigger difference on the outcome of games.

2. The offensive systems are so complex and diverse, many of them rely on QBs with incredible physical tools without as much thought being put into the execution side. If you have a Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, that's awesome, but those guys are freaks. Instead you see a lot of QBs being drafted off of raw physical potential, and that leads to Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, getting picked very high in the draft and being busts.

3. In a related note, the college game is not producing pro-style QBs at a strong rate. Ultimately, the talent in the NFL is what the colleges are giving it, and there just aren't a lot of pro-level QBs getting developed in college, whether that is too great of a difference between standard college and pro systems, excessive transferring stunting development, strong athletes no longer being able to rely on just athleticism at the pro level, or anything else.

4. Most teams don't want to waste valuable cap space on a veteran back-up QB. I think Joe Flacco would be a lot better than a good number of the back-up QBs we have seen play so far this season, but he isn't coming to camp for a minimum salary, and teams balk at paying that and the result is Tommy DeVito and Jarren Hall.

 

[mauf]

I love good defensive football and thought scoring was way too high for a good 12-15 years.

But do the current games feel more like good defensive football to you? Or bad offensive football? Maybe this is just colored by watching teams like the Pats, Jets, and Giants, but those offenses suck even against bad defenses.

It’s hard to evaluate secondary play on TV, but the improved pressure on QBs is noticeable even to the casual fan. And it’s borne out by data — we’re on track for the highest sack rate this century. I don’t believe for a second that offensive linemen forgot how to block, so I chalk that up entirely to improved defensive play.

 

[NomarsFool]

Teams don't have any sort of limit with regards to the number of coaches they can have on the sideline, right? It's amazing to me that with the stakes involved in these games, we still have coaching mistakes with getting the right personell (and number of personell) on the field. Delay of game penalties, unnecessary timeouts. They've got all kinds of people, telecommunications, etc. - why so many mistakes?

 

[nattysez]

The decision making league wide is down. It’s like some illness went around destroying their cognitive ability. I don’t have the numbers but I’m guessing INTs are up this year. I thought it might be that football isn’t as exciting now that the Pats are awful but it’s really more than that. Appreciate the thread starter. It is absolutely noticeable this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/13/upshot/long-covid-disability.html




This is a great thread - I agree with just about every thought. It's a complex problem with a lot of potential sources. But also, leagues go through cycles and this might just be a low-offensive-quality cycle for the league. An interesting random bit of context: Simmons pointed out on his podcast this week that despite appearances, this may not be the worst year in history for NY QBs -- 2017 (McCown and old Manning), 2003 (Pennington and Collins), 1996 (Reich/O'Donnell/Foley and Brown), 1976 (old Namath/Todd and Morton/Snead) were all close to as bad or worse.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I think another (small) factor that is exacerbating the defense vs. offense talent gap is the churn with offensive coordinators. There aren't enough good ones to go around and it seems the ones that are or who show potential become head coaches a bit faster than in the past.

 

[TFisNEXT]

I love good defensive football and thought scoring was way too high for a good 12-15 years.

But do the current games feel more like good defensive football to you? Or bad offensive football? Maybe this is just colored by watching teams like the Pats, Jets, and Giants, but those offenses suck even against bad defenses.

I’ve gone back and watched games from the 1990s before and the offenses looked a lot worse than they do now. It was crazy how many 3 and outs there were.

That said, it doesn’t help that we had many generational QBs all retire within a few years….Brady, Brees, Big Ben, Manning if you go back another few years…and this year we lost Aaron Rodgers for the season. So that’s 5 generational QBs not playing this year who we saw for most of the previous 2 decades. Maybe throw in Philip Rivers as honorable mention…

I think it’s a combo of defenses catching up a bit and also coming down off the insane QB high we were on in the late 2000s/2010s.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Warren Sharp, whom all football fans should know, covered this a few weeks ago:

This year, there are far fewer touchdowns (less excitement) and far fewer points scored (less excitement). Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.

But somehow, there are also more blowouts (less excitement) and fewer underdogs barking (less excitement). Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).

Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.

Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.

However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).

The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.

 

[luckiestman]

As for defenses. Good fucking luck playing against the Jesters if you are not going to play smash mouth football. You can run it on them for sure. Not gash them but you can slow it down and make consistent runs. Passing? Even the best guys are kind of fucked. Hurts had a chance because he could do Big Ben stuff. The corners are too good, the worst position group is the safeties and they’re not bad.

A dominant oline that can have a balanced offense can beat them but even the Eagles struggled. A lot of teams are built like this now. DBs that can hold up a little and Edge guys that abuse these shitty OTs.

SF runs it with a good oline and they are killing fools because a lot of teams want to play nickel. The Jets came out in 4-3 as their base for the first time I remember all year instead of Nickel and they were stopping the run no problem but then Raiders put Adams in the slot and fucked us for a big gain because our 2 great corners don’t line up in man so a linebacker was on Adams.

This is just what I see as a fan but not an expert .

 

[8slim]

I'm still very entertained each Sunday, so I'm not nearly as passionate about this topic as many of you.

One thing that I ponder from time to time... as the game has become almost entirely about passing, it strikes me that there isn't the same kind of rhythm to offensive drives as there once was. Between the incompletions, completions that gain little yardage, and increased penalties, there can be long stretches of a game that have very poor flow. Lots of stop/start, herky-jerk drives that feel poorly played even when they result in points.

There are times a team starts on their 25, some plays go by, and suddenly that team is on their opponents 35, and I'm left wondering how the hell they even got there.

 

[luckiestman]

I'm still very entertained each Sunday, so I'm not nearly as passionate about this topic as many of you.

One thing that I ponder from time to time... as the game has become almost entirely about passing, it strikes me that there isn't the same kind of rhythm to offensive drives as there once was. Between the incompletions, completions that gain little yardage, and increased penalties, there can be long stretches of a game that have very poor flow. Lots of stop/start, herky-jerk drives that feel poorly played even when they result in points.

There are times a team starts on their 25, some plays go by, and suddenly that team is on their opponents 35, and I'm left wondering how the hell they even got there.

Seems true except for the Eagles and 9ers who can do both ball control and explosives. Maybe the Lions too.

How much of this is all cyclical. Rules change to favor passing. Defenses take a while to adjust. Then we get all this two high safety shit keep it in front of you, wait for the offense to implode (penalty, incompletions, sack). So the offense needs to go to a power running game against light boxes but uh oh, no oline guys to do that because the college game is even more wide open than the pro game and teams cannot practice. I’m just spitballing.

I still love the product so I’m talking about scoring being down or offenses being bad and not saying the sport is bad

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I'm not going to even get into the officiating. It's been as bad this year as it's ever been.

But I will say that most of the complaints here seem related to the offense. There's been a LOT of great football being played on the other side of the ball that's causing these offenses to look bad. The athleticism on that side of the ball is like nothing we've seen in NFL history. Absolutely massive humans running 4.5's, sideline to sideline, the game is changing again.

The offensive line play is what it is, some teams (like the Pats) have tons of injuries, which is normal throughout the season. I can't blame lack of practice for any of this, it's week 11 at this point. There are offensive teams that have found a very good balance between throwing/running, like Miami/Philly/SF/Detroit/Baltimore. Speed, speed and more speed in a lot of cases, or just great schemes.

I've watched just about every game that I can possibly watch for a long time, and I wouldn't say this year is any different than others as far as stupid plays. There's been a lot of stupid in the NFL for a long time. I think what we're seeing is defenses catching up to offenses a bit though.

And the entertainment value is still there and then some. 6 games ending in a weekend on game winning field goals is crazy pants shit.

This combined with the refs letting cornerbacks actually play cornerback and not just throwing 1,000 flags at every contact and calling it on the defense. There's 5+ times a game where the announcers will say "well there was hand fighting there and they're not going to call that. From 2005-2020 I feel like that was a constant flag on the D. I like it how they're calling it now.

 

[j44thor]

I think we are just seeing a lot of parity across the league. I haven't looked at all the data but more games seem to be decided by 6pts or less than in a long time. There was a record 4 gms decided by GW FG on last play of game this past Sunday. Or take a look at what DEN did, giving up 70pts to MIA earlier this year only to beat KC and BUF in back to back gms on the strength of their defense. Perhaps this can be attributed to the lack of practice. I'm not sure it is indicative of bad football or just what happens when teams of similar talent consistently play against each other.

 

[8slim]

Seems true except for the Eagles and 9ers who can do both ball control and explosives. Maybe the Lions too.

How much of this is all cyclical. Rules change to favor passing. Defenses take a while to adjust. Then we get all this two high safety shit keep it in front of you, wait for the offense to implode (penalty, incompletions, sack). So the offense needs to go to a power running game against light boxes but uh oh, no oline guys to do that because the college game is even more wide open than the pro game and teams cannot practice. I’m just spitballing.

I still love the product so I’m talking about scoring being down or offenses being bad and not saying the sport is bad

I agree with the last line. I spent far more time with Bills/Broncos last night than I did with Cs/Knicks. Even a "poorly played" NFL game creates much more urgency to watch than any random NBA regular season game. For me, anyway.

 

[Justthetippett]

If they guaranteed contracts then maybe they could practice more. I think players would be OK with that compromise. And they could compensate for the lack of skill of OLs etc. I also think the rulebook needs a comprehensive review. Too many tickytack penalties that prevent fans from seeing the awesome athleticism determine the outcome of games through competition rather than interference from the refs.

 

[johnmd20]

Offensive line play is not good league wide. Very few teams have both a good QB and a good line, and it shows. Depth at Tackle in particular is bad league wide.

This is it. I’ve been saying it for months now. The DLs are the best athletes on the field and the OLs just can’t keep up. They are facing guys that are too big, too fast, and too fucking strong.

QBs are under a giant amount of pressure and nobody is good facing that. I believe that is the biggest reason. The DL position is the glory position and it’s getting all the best giant players and athletes.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Fumble and interception rates are materially lower than they were back then, so it’s not like the game got sloppy — we’re just finally seeing the pendulum swing back toward defense.

If defenses are creating fewer turnovers then how does that indicate that the game is more defensively oriented in 2023?

I think those focusing on the OL are nailing the issue. A great OL will make a decent defensive backfield look top-tier. Conversely, a poor offensive line will make a great QB look like they just drove off a cliff (see: TB's last year in Foxboro). The one team that is renowned for having a great and cohesive offensive line unit: the Eagles. Not a coincidence that they're the top team in the NFL.

Also, what is bad football necessarily? The Texans and Stroud pulling off insane wins in the last two weeks looked pretty good to me. Josh Dobbs in Minny? Fun story + good games.

Maybe there's just more exposure to the bad games because games are on every Thursday, Black Friday, early as hell Sunday morning, soon on Saturdays, and for seven hours commercial-free via Redzone. This kinda almost feels like a Pats suck so now football sucks thread. I think there's an argument for a small decline in the level of play, but that's about it.

 

[luckiestman]

If defenses are creating fewer turnovers then how does that indicate that the game is more defensively oriented in 2023?

There were more combined punts than combined points in Jets/Giants

 

[BaseballJones]

I wonder how much of this has to do with every college team running the same offense - the shotgun, RPO, the QB runs a lot, kind of offense. When it was innovative in the NFL, it worked wonders. But it seems like NFL defenses have certainly caught up with it and now offenses need to adjust again.

 

[tims4wins]

If defenses are creating fewer turnovers then how does that indicate that the game is more defensively oriented in 2023?

I think those focusing on the OL are nailing the issue. A great OL will make a decent defensive backfield look top-tier. Conversely, a poor offensive line will make a great QB look like they just drove off a cliff (see: TB's last year in Foxboro). The one team that is renowned for having a great and cohesive offensive line unit: the Eagles. Not a coincidence that they're the top team in the NFL.

Also, what is bad football necessarily? The Texans and Stroud pulling off insane wins in the last two weeks looked pretty good to me. Josh Dobbs in Minny? Fun story + good games.

Maybe there's just more exposure to the bad games because games are on every Thursday, Black Friday, early as hell Sunday morning, soon on Saturdays, and for seven hours commercial-free via Redzone. This kinda almost feels like a Pats suck so now football sucks thread. I think there's an argument for a small decline in the level of play, but that's about it.

Eh the Pats have been boring for 4 years now. Brady and Rodgers not playing this year probably has more to do with it.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

There were more combined punts than combined points in Jets/Giants

Zach Wilson versus a kid who's stoked his mom still does his laundry at home isn't really telling of much.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Maybe there's just more exposure to the bad games because games are on every Thursday, Black Friday, early as hell Sunday morning, soon on Saturdays, and for seven hours commercial-free via Redzone. This kinda almost feels like a Pats suck so now football sucks thread. I think there's an argument for a small decline in the level of play, but that's about it.

I think there is some truth to this. We're on a Boston centric board, and the Pats are shit, so I think folks are tuning out of the Pats more on Sundays, and paying closer attention to the rest of the league than they have before. Maybe there's some folks just now realizing that what we saw for the last 20 years is not normal in the context of the entire NFL. At some points, what we saw with Brady/BB and the Pats isn't even the same sport that some other teams were playing.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Eh the Pats have been boring for 4 years now. Brady and Rodgers not playing this year probably has more to do with it.

The Mac Jones and Cam Newton hopium has finally worn off and the spectre of being one of the teams on the QB merry-go-round looms.

 

[mauf]

If they guaranteed contracts then maybe they could practice more. I think players would be OK with that compromise. And they could compensate for the lack of skill of OLs etc. I also think the rulebook needs a comprehensive review. Too many tickytack penalties that prevent fans from seeing the awesome athleticism determine the outcome of games through competition rather than interference from the refs.

Penalties are up materially this year (6.2 per team, per game) relative to 2020-22 levels (5.6 to 5.9). But those 2020-22 numbers were unusually low; penalties this year are still down from 2010s levels.

 

[joe dokes]

1. Offenses are now built entirely around QBs. If in the past a QB was responsible for like, 50% of your offense, then having a mediocre QB wasn't a deal-breaker. If that number is now around 70% of your offense, then having a lousy QB really handicaps how teams can move the ball. Conversely, if you are fortunate enough to have an elite QB, it makes a much bigger difference on the outcome of games.

This is an excellent observation.

 

[TomRicardo]

I think there's an argument for a small decline in the level of play, but that's about it.

You think there is only a small decline? Last night was objectively bad football and it is mid November. It wasn't like the Pats and Bear were playing a tank bowl either. Buffalo the home team, is suppose to be among the best in the AFC.

 

[NomarsFool]

How much of the decline in scoring could be tied to essentially eliminating the kick-off as a play in football? I'm still a bit skeptical that the kick-off was neutered for player safety reasons and not as a way to basically do away with a - not terribly well paid, but maybe somewhat more well paid - specialist role within football, so that special teamers are now JAGs and can't get particularly good contracts. Or, even if there was no financial reason to get rid of it, I just have a hard time believing that kick-offs are significantly more dangerous than other plays in football.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

You think there is only a small decline? Last night was objectively bad football and it is mid November. It wasn't like the Pats and Bear were playing a tank bowl either. Buffalo the home team, is suppose to be among the best in the AFC.

The Bills have lost to the lowly Pats and Broncos. Maybe the Bills suck more than football in general? A certain number of games per week have always and will always be bad games.

 

[Hoya81]

This week may have seen especially weak simply due to the fact that the Eagles, Dolphins and Chiefs were all on their bye.

 

[rodderick]

The Bills have lost to the lowly Pats and Broncos. Maybe the Bills suck more than football in general? A certain number of games per week have always and will always be bad games.

The Bills are 5-5 and have the second best point differential in football! Only the Ravens are better. Which to me suggests they've just had shitty turnover timing/luck more than anything.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Lack of practice time hurts. I don't think I would put it on the college offenses getting into the NFL.

Pete Carroll's defense, that heavy press-zone C3 shit, when that took over it was bad for defenses. Let me explain.

So the deal with Carroll's defense is that you absolutely need linebackers who can drop back into coverage, you need safeties with range and playmaking instincts, and you need big long corners who aren't afraid to be physical. You also need pass rush as this coverage system is more prone to explosive plays with time vs say a man-match zone with a 2 high shell. His system and other 1 high systems are prone to explosive plays. Explosive plays are one of the leading causals to if a drive ends in a score or not. Carroll's system took over almost 1/3? 1/2? of the league and more teams started using it rotationally. Cover 3 usage started to rise. Unless you have god-tier players executing this defense it doesn't work nearly as well with lesser athletes or guys whose builds don't synch up exactly to what is needed. Now take that system, spread it around the league, and have teams fighting for the same pool of players and your defenses around the league are going to get worse. And remember this is a defense that is prone to giving up explosive plays which lead to scores.

So now we have an NFL with too many straws in the same drink. When offenses began to solve the C3 defense wave points shot up. The natural counter in college and in the pros has been to switch to a 2-high shell and play more man-match, quarters, and concepts which are designed to limit explosive plays. It is harder for EVERYONE to score with a cap on explosive plays. And these 2-high defenses are complicated. These defenses are prone to being run on but 2 caveats there: 1) explosive run plays are 8-10+ yards vs explosive pass plays are 15+ yards. So the explosive plays a 2-high shell give up are less explosive. 2) You have to string drives together if your optimal strategy against a look is to run. And stringing drives together is hard for everyone.

Even the Patriots were using more man-match and zone concepts than they ever had** including in weeks where Gonzo was playing.

Offenses shouldn't have exploded like they did honestly but because the Carroll system erupted at the same time and with the copycat nature of the league it lead to years of inefficiencies on defense that have just been corrected in the last 2-3 years. You also can run these concepts with a less talented back end making them a lot easier to implement vs the Carroll system which was much more specific talent intensive.


**Edit: to be fair I wouldn't have been able to tell you what man vs zone was back in 2000-2009ish so I couldn't tell you what Bill ran pre 2010ish. Not because I am young or anything it is just that I started studying football later in life.