Yeah this is officially entering silly territory. Its 60% total value with an AAV thats about 85% of the amount with two fewer guaranteed years. Those deals are comparable or close. Thats not a bridge with negotiations difference; thats a material difference that is a standstill.I would say yes, 4/90 is quite a ways off from 6/160.
Five years at $25 per is nowhere close to what elite talent costs now. I don't have a problem with that contract, but you got it because the guy had his worst year in four years in 2021.Fortunately the Sox aren’t in the “we are never signing a big time free agent” camp. Last year they gave Story what was then a pretty big contract. This year some think they overpaid Jansen. And they spent a hundred million on a free agent outfielder from Japan.
They’re not averse to spending money. They are averse to signing Bogaerts to a ridiculous contract.
The reports were multiple offers above $200M; unless you read that as all offers other than SD were exactly $200, its hard to see how an opening offer of only $160M is reading the market correctly. Even at $200M, coming in 20% below the prevailing market is not a strategy for success. For example, when the yankees were in that position with Judge they unilaterally reached out and made, if reports are to believed, an exploding offer than was only 10% below.If Chaim was at 6/160 ($27m per year), but said come back to us when you've gotten another offer, and was prepared to go up to like 7/200 or a little more, then he read the market right.
Except that the market - out of literally nowhere - went up to 11/280. There wasn't a team in the league that thought, as of two days ago, that Xander Bogaerts would get THAT. So I don't think Chaim was too far off. Someone upthread painted the scenario where maybe Chaim went 7/162 and said come back to us and when they came back with 11/280 Chaim was like, OMG what are you talking about? And realized that there was zero chance in hell that the Red Sox (and, as it turned out, every other team in baseball besides SD) would come CLOSE to matching that, so why bother with another proposal?
No f’n way for me. After doing that watch-pointing nonsense last year, he’s by far my least favorite player and if he got hit by a semi truck I wouldn’t shed a tear.Correa please.
11 yearly payments of 25.4M might be less than you think it isOk, so these idiot owners are paying a guy until he's 41. No. Just, NO!
I posted as soon as Turner got 11/$300 that Xander would get a similar amount of money with a seemingly too-long contract.If Chaim was at 6/160 ($27m per year), but said come back to us when you've gotten another offer, and was prepared to go up to like 7/200 or a little more, then he read the market right.
Except that the market - out of literally nowhere - went up to 11/280. There wasn't a team in the league that thought, as of two days ago, that Xander Bogaerts would get THAT. So I don't think Chaim was too far off. Someone upthread painted the scenario where maybe Chaim went 7/162 and said come back to us and when they came back with 11/280 Chaim was like, OMG what are you talking about? And realized that there was zero chance in hell that the Red Sox (and, as it turned out, every other team in baseball besides SD) would come CLOSE to matching that, so why bother with another proposal?
I know that's not what elite talent costs NOW. But last year, Story received the 7th biggest free agent contract of his free agent class.Five years at $25 per is nowhere close to what elite talent costs now. I don't have a problem with that contract, but you got it because the guy had his worst year in four years in 2021.
The word was that Chaim put out that 6/160 offer and said, come back to me when you get other offers, the idea being that he would up his ante. I imagine he would have been willing to go close to 200, which may have been enough, all other things being equal. But it wasn't enough because San Diego went completely bonkers and blew *EVERYONE* else out of the water.The reports were multiple offers above $200M; unless you read that as all offers other than SD were exactly $200, its hard to see how an opening offer of only $160M is reading the market correctly. Even at $200M, coming in 20% below the prevailing market is not a strategy for success. For example, when the yankees were in that position with Judge they unilaterally reached out and made, if reports are to believed, an exploding offer than was only 10% below.
Sitting on your offer that is 20% below is pretty likely to fail and thats assuming that the other offers were exactly 200; I suspect there was a range between $210 and $230.
This all assumes they wanted to sign him. Before yesterday my operating assumption was that they did not, but based on how they were acting in public, I think they geniunely thought they were going to get it done and thats incredibly concerning about their competency to read the market.
Good post. Post more!Longtime lurker here. This is my take as well. I've been willing to give Bloom and the FO benefit of the doubt. But if the reporting is correct -- and, given the byline, I'm inclined to think it is -- they misjudged the market and they misjudged it badly. This does not breed confidence.
[Edit: Same goes for all of the decisions leading up to this week, including the period this year when -- again, according to this report -- Bogaerts was open to new offers.]
It also makes me wonder about the long-term plan, because the long-term plan appears to assume they can hold onto a handful of stars for what turn out to be well-below market prices. As we are seeing now, that's not going to happen. So going forward, are they willing to pay more? Do they have some plan to lock up these stars before they hit FA and enter the pricing stratosphere? Or are they going to adjust the plan so they don't need to hold onto those stars?
Can you link that? I hadn't heard that when Bogaerts went back to Boston for a best/final that they upped their offer to $200 million.The word was that Chaim put out that 6/160 offer and said, come back to me when you get other offers, the idea being that he would up his ante. I imagine he would have been willing to go close to 200, which may have been enough, all other things being equal.
I dont think 20% below prevailing market where there are 3-4 offers in the previaling rate is in it at all. You're asking a ton of the player to really want to play there to really be in it. That was my entire point that the Yankees realized that they were 20% below and Hal got Judge on the phone and got to within 10% without the player prompting and that was a SDP v. NYY. Here, Boras has 3-4 teams to play off each other in the low 200s, and one offer at 160 - thats not a situation that you're going to win absent a Dustin Pedroia type desire to stay.The word was that Chaim put out that 6/160 offer and said, come back to me when you get other offers, the idea being that he would up his ante. I imagine he would have been willing to go close to 200, which may have been enough, all other things being equal. But it wasn't enough because San Diego went completely bonkers and blew *EVERYONE* else out of the water.
I'm not saying Chaim handled this great. I'm saying that I think NOBODY had a clue - not even SD - that the Padres would offer that kind of deal, and I bet Chaim didn't want to set the market at first, but wanted to put out something he though was enough to stay in the conversation (which by all accounts was the case) until Xander came back to him with, I need you to be here (ABC).
The Sox weren’t gonna go bid for bid, it’s a bad strategy. They made a formal offer of 7/$162 or whatever and then waited, probably knowing that they’d be able to counter or match. When Preller dropped 11/$280, there was no point of making another formal offer.Can you link that? I hadn't heard that when Bogaerts went back to Boston for a best/final that they upped their offer to $200 million.
That makes Boston look much better and right with the pack of everyone not San Diego.
No, apologies, I didn't mean to sound dismissive (although it obviously came across that way), and creative thinking is always good. The biggest problem is that performance bonuses can't be skill-based, so scaling salary to OPS or anything similar in the latter years of the contract is a nonstarter.The numbers I posted were a hypothetical, hindsight offer to Bogaerts. I was thinking same framework for Correa or Devers, but with higher numbers. High AAV for the first few years, low AAV for the remaining few, with escalators that raise the AAV to a very high level if the player can put up a 120-140 or higher OPS and stay on the field for most of the season.
If we’re talking six years high AAV, four low AAV with very lucrative escalators, maybe offer an opt out after the first six years.
Maybe they look at X over the last few years and don’t view him as an elite player?What I find concerning is not failing to sign Xander per se, or really any other non-signing save for Mookie. What I find concerning is that the Red Sox appear to regard every contract for an elite player as an overpay. At some point, when elite player after elite player is getting enormous very long deal after enormous very long deal, these contracts cease to be overpays and are simply what talent costs.
Building through the farm system is pretty clearly the key to having a good team, but if you never add--or keep--big time talent, you're usuall going to be stuck behind the teams that do.
If you never sign big time free agents--your own or those of other teams--you can be good for a few years but, then you have to let people walk and build back up.
They shouldn't give the forever deal to just anyone--I have real concerns about giving it to Devers--but you do have to give it to someone the way MLB is currently constituted.
Dont need to pile on about not upping the offer - putting aside a hometown discount and the Padres offer - there's basically no auction where a party that is 25-30% below a group of bidders is going to be given the opportunity to re-bid.The Sox weren’t gonna go bid for bid, it’s a bad strategy. They made a formal offer of 7/$162 or whatever and then waited, probably knowing that they’d be able to counter or match. When Preller dropped 11/$280, there was no point of making another formal offer.
That’s how I read the situation. And it allows the beat reporters to write that the Sox’ final offer didn’t go higher than $160~ in their pile-ons.
Then go after someone else.Maybe they look at X over the last few years and don’t view him as an elite player?
It wasn't that the Sox upped their offer to $200 million, it was that Chaim was willing to go that high. He expected Bogaerts to come back to the Sox with his best offer in hand and Chaim, assuming it was in that neighborhood, expected to match it. Then when he saw what SD offered, it was like, omg no way.Can you link that? I hadn't heard that when Bogaerts went back to Boston for a best/final that they upped their offer to $200 million.
That makes Boston look much better and right with the pack of everyone not San Diego.
It may have gone like this: Boston opens with 6/162, figuring they'd go higher. Bogaerts takes that and gets more offers, a few of which hit the $200m level. Chaim is like, ok, come back to us with that, thinking if he matched, he'd have him. Hence the celebratory sense we got from him. Then out of nowhere, the Padres drop this absurd, ridiculous, blow-everyone-away contract, and it was like, game over. But it may not have gone like that either. We really don't know. But that would at least make some sense.Dont need to pile on about not upping the offer - putting aside a hometown discount and the Padres offer - there's basically no auction where a party that is 25-30% below a group of bidders is going to be given the opportunity to re-bid.
Opening offers matter. This one was poor if they wanted the player.
I think this is spot on. I'd even go a bit further and say Preller's offer was lower when FSG saw it. They basically said they were out and would play the confidence card so Boras could use that to milk every dollar out of SD for Xander. Sure it helps to drive up the market for Correa and Swanson but I doubt we're in on those guys so it really doesn't matter.The Sox weren’t gonna go bid for bid, it’s a bad strategy. They made a formal offer of 7/$162 or whatever and then waited, probably knowing that they’d be able to counter or match. When Preller dropped 11/$280, there was no point of making another formal offer.
That’s how I read the situation. And it allows the beat reporters to write that the Sox’ final offer didn’t go higher than $160~ in their pile-ons.
But isn't that a distincition without a difference? After the Turner contract dropped, they didn't factor in the probability of an outlier and revise their strategy accordingly, they set themselves up to lose. If I'm selling a house for $100K and your bid is $60K, I'm giving the bidders at $80K a chance to sweeten the deal. There's no point in finding out if the $60K bid will go to $80K.The Sox weren’t gonna go bid for bid, it’s a bad strategy. They made a formal offer of 7/$162 or whatever and then waited, probably knowing that they’d be able to counter or match. When Preller dropped 11/$280, there was no point of making another formal offer.
That’s how I read the situation. And it allows the beat reporters to write that the Sox’ final offer didn’t go higher than $160~ in their pile-ons.
In terms of AAV, it’s $22.5 million to $26.7 million to $28.7 million. The last two are higher than the AAV the Padres offered. Clearly, the problem for the Red Sox was the length of the contract.You need to expect the "crazy lunatic" (my father's words, not mine) owner/GM as a contingency nowadays in these bidding wars, though.
And again, how did we go from 4/90 to 6/160 to maybe preparing to match a 7/200? Thinking about these numbers, I go back to the reported Zoom call with owners earlier this week and wonder if ownership was just saying no way on X until it was too late.
I haven't seen such a tweet and I don't think Speiers or anyone reputable has reported it, but I'd love to see it.It wasn't that the Sox upped their offer to $200 million, it was that Chaim was willing to go that high. He expected Bogaerts to come back to the Sox with his best offer in hand and Chaim, assuming it was in that neighborhood, expected to match it. Then when he saw what SD offered, it was like, omg no way.
I'm pretty sure someone linked a tweet to that effect in one of these threads.
Or they read the market to clearly be way out of line of where they were willing to go for Xander.After the Turner contract dropped, they didn't factor in the probability of an outlier and revise their strategy accordingly, they set themselves up to lose.
Mostly it's just about me being mad and irrational.What is this about? He had the highest OPS+ of his career last season.
I mean... The Sox weren't the only team who made an offer before the season that was too low, the player bet on himself and did great, and the team reevaluated their offer. Judge went from 7/213 to 9/360 and X had a great season. I don't think the offer change when viewing market pricing changes is weird.You need to expect the "crazy lunatic" (my father's words, not mine) owner/GM as a contingency nowadays in these bidding wars, though.
And again, how did we go from 4/90 to 6/160 to maybe preparing to match a 7/200? Thinking about these numbers, I go back to the reported Zoom call with owners earlier this week and wonder if ownership was just saying no way on X until it was too late.
Which is fine--I actually agree with any decision along those lines. But if that's your stance, own it. Don't be talking into mics about X being a "priority" for the future or enable a flurry of twitter cockteasing hours before he walks. Bloom et al took the worst of all possible paths on this.Or they read the market to clearly be way out of line of where they were willing to go for Xander.
Ok yeah, that's what I was remembering. Thanks.It's buried but definitely earlier in the week it was reported (Hector Gomez?) that Xander would come to us last and see if we'd match. But now the reporting is when that said offer was just under Turner's deal, X knew what the answer would be and didn't bother to come back.
It was the total amount of guaranteed money.In terms of AAV, it’s $22.5 million to $26.7 million to $28.7 million. The last two are higher than the AAV the Padres offered. Clearly, the problem for the Red Sox was the length of the contract.
Boras rebutted that and said that isn’t how they operate, that they wouldn’t take it back to the Sox.It's buried but definitely earlier in the week it was reported (Hector Gomez?) that Xander would come to us last and see if we'd match. But now the reporting is when that said offer was just under Turner's deal, X knew what the answer would be and didn't bother to come back.
Why can't it be both? He was a priority going into the offseason. And then when the Turner deal dropped it was probably clear they were out, especially with the Giants/Dodgers/Cubs (and apparently the Padres) still out there. I think it's more likely the positive posturing yesterday was to help Xander get every dollar than they continued to completely misjudge the market so clearly in front of them.Which is fine--I actually agree with any decision along those lines. But if that's your stance, own it. Don't be talking into mics about X being a "priority" for the future or enable a flurry of twitter cockteasing hours before he walks. Bloom et al took the worst of all possible paths on this.
Boras may not operate that way if he has his choice, but he serves his client. If Xander wanted to take the offer to the Sox, then they would've. I don't blame him if he didn't...I wouldn't have. The answer was self-evident.Boras rebutted that and said that isn’t how they operate, that they wouldn’t take it back to the Sox.
I think they would be... depending on the player..... not someone who is going to be 30+ when hitting FA thoughForget about Xander, the question is this: Are the Sox willing to be the high bid on any elite player in all of baseball, even one. I think th answer is no. They may, however, be willing to be the much lower high bid on whoever is left over.
That doesn't mean Boras is telling the truth. Or that the Sox were either. I just shared it because I had seen it reported is all.Boras rebutted that and said that isn’t how they operate, that they wouldn’t take it back to the Sox.
That's fair, and strategically there's not much to criticize (although they weren't trying to get X the last dollar, they were trying to get SD to lay it out). But they understand "priority" in a very, very different manner than the fan base, the media, and possibly a few agents (not Boras) understand it, and that's a framework for how subsequent events are interpreted. The thing I'm most boggled by here isn't the team-building strategy or the budgeting, it's their ability to have done what might have been the least productive, fan-alienating thing possible every step of the way, starting with that bizarre extension offer last spring.Why can't it be both? He was a priority going into the offseason. And then when the Turner deal dropped it was probably clear they were out, especially with the Giants/Dodgers/Cubs (and apparently the Padres) still out there. I think it's more likely the positive posturing yesterday was to help Xander get every dollar than they continued to completely misjudge the market so clearly in front of them.
Same. Just sharing what was reported.That doesn't mean Boras is telling the truth. Or that the Sox were either. I just shared it because I had seen it reported is all.
It also doesn’t mean the offering party will allow their bid to get shopped. For example SD says 11/280 but if you don’t sign now we’re moving to Correa (or whatever). I worked a bond desk at one point of my life and there were times you could shop a bid and times you couldn’t.That doesn't mean Boras is telling the truth. Or that the Sox were either. I just shared it because I had seen it reported is all.
True. We really don't know what went down with all this.It also doesn’t mean the offering party will allow their bid to get shopped. For example SD says 11/280 but if you don’t sign now we’re moving to Correa (or whatever). I worked a bond desk at one point of my life and there were times you could shop a bid and times you couldn’t.
I think they would be... depending on the player..... not someone who is going to be 30+ when hitting FA though
Mookie was what, 27?I think they would be... depending on the player..... not someone who is going to be 30+ when hitting FA though
That is extremely far off. Offering 4/90 is laughably low after just signing Story to 6/140It's not about Boras allowing anything. Boras does do what Xander says. They included the opt-out for a reason when they took that team friendly extension. Once Xander made it clear he was planning to opt out, there was no reason to not believe him nor to assume his reasons were to get a market rate deal. If he was just leveraging for another below-market deal, maybe he could have made that clear when they "lowballed" him instead of not countering it.
I mean, if 6/150-160 gets it done back in March, the tack a year onto the existing contract to make it 4/90 offer isn't necessarily all that far off, no? By dismissing it and not offering a counter, that kinda sends a message that they're after way more, doesn't it? Rather than bid against themselves, they let him go to market and see what was there. And until the Padres dropped their bombshell, 6/160 was very much in the conversation. I have to think they had confidence in keeping him at that point because they didn't envision the Padres deal AND they didn't envision it all coming to a head at 9pm PST last night. They thought they had more time to burnish their offer.
Mookie did not go to FA (i think he would have had covid not happened.) given he said he would go to FA.Mookie was what, 27?
They going to be the top bid for Soto?
Thank you. All the speculation about what Bloom did or didn't do, what Boras did or didn't do, is . . . not based on any real facts. The bottom line is San Diego offered 11/280, and that's insane. I don't know how Bloom can be blamed for not somehow preventing that from happening, or for not matching that price.True. We really don't know what went down with all this.
Eh, had he offered Xander 6/150 instead of 4/90 I'd be right there with you, but he didn't, so we'll never know if he could have prevented that from happening.Thank you. All the speculation about what Bloom did or didn't do, what Boras did or didn't do, is . . . not based on any real facts. The bottom line is San Diego offered 11/280, and that's insane. I don't know how Bloom can be blamed for not somehow preventing that from happening, or for not matching that price.