Hoplite said:
Yeah, I've heard it a million times too. It's appropriate statement as far as the accuracy of win projections goes, but the comparison more or less stops there. When Ortiz was hurt, the Red Sox had Jackie Bradley Jr. step in. When Drew was hurt, the Red Sox had Jose Iglesias step in. When Middlebrooks played poorly, the Red Sox had Xander Bogaerts step in. When Hanrahan and Bailey got hurt, the Red Sox had Uehara and later Workman step in to late inning roles. Many of those situations worked out much better than expected, but I'm not seeing many good candidates on the Yankees to fill those roles.
jon abbey said:
I feel like I've read this at least 20 times from different people, and it's really not true. NY has zero bullpen depth, so if their equivalents of Bailey and Hanrahan get hurt, they certainly don't have Uehara waiting in the wings. They also don't have guys like Jackie Bradley and Bogaerts waiting to fill in when necessary, or an Iglesias to move at the trade deadline. I think when people say this, maybe what they mean is "NY needs pretty much everything to go right for them this year to have a chance" and that certainly is true.
JBJ-392 OPS in April. No help there.
XB had a 684 OPS in the regular season, and it was Iggy who stepped in for WMB as he worked out his problems in Pawtucket. XB got most of his playing time in September when the race was all but over.
Iggy was productive filling in for Drew then WMB and then as trade bait for Peavy. They were lucky they moved him before his legs broke.
Workman had a 6.94 ERA as a reliever in the regular season
XB and Workman did contribute in the playoffs, but they were not as big a factor in the regular season at 3B or RP'er.
I don't think anyone saw Uehara doing what he did at this time last year. Maybe the Yankees have someone lurking under the radar there (Betances, Banuelos, Bailey?). Uehara was signed largely because it was anticipated Bailey would not stay healthy given his injury history. Ben knew he needed depth there and it was a great pickup.
Cash picked up Bailey, maybe he contributes in 2014 (would not bet on it, but who knows)
I think its largely a myth that the farm contributed all that much to the 2013 regular season last year. The Red Sox won largely because they got good health and performance from their core players (Papi, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lackey, Lester) , many of whom were coming off injuries or sub-par years, and their 7 free agents, many of whom were also coming off injuries or sub-par years, and all performed as well or better than expected. That's pretty rare.
As for trade bait from the farm, the Yankees have some pretty good catching prospects that should yield something of value at the trading deadline
Like the Red Sox, the Yankees have a bunch of guys coming off injuries (Jeter, Tex) and offyears (CC), and signed a bunch of free agents (Tanaka, McCann, Ellsbury, Beltran) . If those players comeback to close to their career norms, and the teams stays healthy, they could outperform their projections like the Red Sox did. Its a big If, no doubt, so you would not want to bet on it.
Last year I projected the Red Sox to win 88 +/- 7. A high variance due to all the uncertainties. I have Yankees at 86 +/-7 now with just as many uncertainties as the Red Sox had last year.
To be at the high end of the variance the Yankees will need pretty much everything to go right like the Red Sox did last year.