Yet another Pats draft poll--Your preference, 5 weeks out

[nighthob]

There is no mystical development spell that's going help a noodle armed QB be able to make all the necessary throws. All you can really do for that guy is find a franchise RB and a runblocking line so that he only needs to throw to the middle of the field with 9 men stacked in the box. What you really need to be doing is finding a better option. Their mistake was in committing to Jones. They should have been trading that pick to someone desperate enough to draft a non-elite QB in the 1st round.

 

[brendan f]

Both Joe Milton and Caleb Williams have better arms than Maye, and JJ McCarthy probably does, too. Milton hit 62mph at the combine and McCarthy 61. Last year Anthony Richardson was 60. I'd be surprised if Maye threw this hard. Maybe you're making a distinction between arm strength and arm talent? He certainly has a good arm, but it could be that his long, slow release makes it look worse than it is.

So on the topic of McCarthy, one thing that bothers me is the perception that he's some kind of gem because he was in a run heavy offense so we didn't get to see the full extent of his talents. The opposite case can be made–that being in a run heavy offense allowed him to rely almost exclusively on play action which hid his deficiencies as a downfield thrower.

 

[Bowser]

So on the topic of McCarthy, one thing that bothers me is the perception that he's some kind of gem because he was in a run heavy offense so we didn't get to see the full extent of his talents. The opposite case can be made–that being in a run heavy offense allowed him to rely almost exclusively on play action which hid his deficiencies as a downfield thrower.

That's fair, and I'm not suggesting McCarthy doesn't have warts. I was higher on him in the fall and soured a bit as the season went on. I was stunned at how little he did ... or was asked to do. To be fair, there were probably a few reasons why Michigan turned to a run-heavy offense. Their O line and RBs were great, their WRs average, and their OC, Sherrone Moore, is a former O lineman. And sure, McCarthy was part of that calculus.

Where I'm at is ... if the Pats had the #1 pick, I'd draft Williams without a second thought. And at #2 I'd draft Daniels, though with some concerns, mostly about his durability.

But at #3 and with Maye on the board, I begin to think about alternatives. I'm not saying it'd be crazy to draft him -- I don't know enough to make that claim -- but there's so much about his game that makes me nervous. Admittedly, you have to dig for this info, because if you just look at his highlights, he's pretty impressive.

Anyway, both Maye and McCarthy are raw, and so the question for me isn't who has the higher ceiling -- that's Maye -- but rather who's likely to reach at least 90% of his potential? To me, it's McCarthy. I like his character and leadership. He's got a quicker trigger. He's a better runner. He played against better competition. He's got a higher big time play percentage, a lower turnover worthy play percentage, and a higher adjusted completion percentage (again, per this video). And he's, allegedly, the best QB in the draft on third and long.

 

[Cellar-Door]

That's fair, and I'm not suggesting McCarthy doesn't have warts. I was higher on him in the fall and soured a bit as the season went on. I was stunned at how little he did ... or was asked to do. To be fair, there were probably a few reasons why Michigan turned to a run-heavy offense. Their O line and RBs were great, their WRs average, and their OC, Sherrone Moore, is a former O lineman. And sure, McCarthy was part of that calculus.

Where I'm at is ... if the Pats had the #1 pick, I'd draft Williams without a second thought. And at #2 I'd draft Daniels, though with some concerns, mostly about his durability.

But at #3 and with Maye on the board, I begin to think about alternatives. I'm not saying it'd be crazy to draft him -- I don't know enough to make that claim -- but there's so much about his game that makes me nervous. Admittedly, you have to dig for this info, because if you just look at his highlights, he's pretty impressive.

Anyway, both Maye and McCarthy are raw, and so the question for me isn't who has the higher ceiling -- that's Maye -- but rather who's likely to reach at least 90% of his potential? To me, it's McCarthy. I like his character and leadership. He's got a quicker trigger. He's a better runner. He played against better competition. He's got a higher big time play percentage, a lower turnover worthy play percentage, and a higher adjusted completion percentage (again, per this video). And he's, allegedly, the best QB in the draft on third and long.

I'm fine with having a personal preference for Mccarthy, but as mentioned before you really need to stop using that video with its terrible context less stats. You would expect Mccarthy to be much better in those stats based on his team and what he's asked to do. Especially since it's only quoting off play action stats. Maye has a higher BTT percentage and lower turnover worthy throw percentage overall. Unless the Patriots are going to have a dominant Team around him and throw mostly play action I don't know see how it's a good projection tool.

 

[MikeM]

I'm not convinced the current draft stock hype on McCarthy is real. At least outside the media chasing after those clicks. Which is seemingly just getting more and more extreme every year.

I know we are in the time of year when the draft speculation is 95% about QB. But I think there is actually a much higher probability chance within the top 10 that somebody looking to grab a better plug and play T bet comes up to get Alt (preferably) or Fash on the backend.

Pats are getting all the current attention, but it's that #5 pick that seems the most likely trade up spot imo, and not for QB.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm not convinced the current draft stock hype on McCarthy is real. At least outside the media chasing after those clicks.

I know we are in the time of year when the draft speculation is 95% about QB. But I think there is actually a much higher probability chance within the top 10 that somebody looking to grab a better plug and play T bet comes up to get Alt (preferably) or Fash.

Pats are getting all the current attention, but it's that #5 spot that seems the most likely trade up spot imo.

I think 5 is the trade spot too.
With Mccarthy I think the hype is mostly media catching up to the league. He was high on boards pre-season then got dropped as he had a low volume nothing special year. But I think scouts probably never dropped him, having a 1st round grade all the time. Then add QB inflation and a lot of QB needy teams mid-1st....

 

[Cellar-Door]

So one thing I have been thinking looking at the QBs, and looking at draft history for places Wolf had majorly roles and the people like his Dad who he worked under.

We owe an apology to the poster who was talking JJ at 3 several months back.

I could see it. In fact I would not be surprised if the NE board is... Caleb, Maye, JJ, Daniels. The past drafts for Wolf and the tree he came from really really likes big arms and decent mobility over great mobility but averagish arms.

I could see them being down on Daniels for the arm strength.

 

[sezwho]

I think 5 is the trade spot too.
With Mccarthy I think the hype is mostly media catching up to the league. He was high on boards pre-season then got dropped as he had a low volume nothing special year. But I think scouts probably never dropped him, having a 1st round grade all the time. Then add QB inflation and a lot of QB needy teams mid-1st....

I hadn’t really considered this perspective, but I think it makes sense and it was echoed by one of the draft touts on the Next Pats podcast (I think it was during the 4/20 episode).

Essentially, unless someone over performs their combine, what appears to be draft helium isn’t actually the league opinion evolving, but rather the equivalent of the public catching up with the sharps. This idea has made me less dismissive when I hear someone is rising up the boards.

 

[jk333]

I am of the mind that things probably play out a lot differently next offseason if/when it becomes a lot more apparent that pushing the GOAT out of town (who i expect to make a much hyped up return to somewhere else next offseason) really just left the franchise in an even bigger free fall, and to a point of swapping bad team meme places with the Jets. Especially if you really do immediately turn around and end up "Mac Jones'ing" this new QB all over again.

I’m not sure about the first part (pushing BB out, he is why the roster is bad) but think you’re 110% right about the second part. The Patriots are going to be terrible next year and they need to be prepared for that reality. If they hit on a QB, they could win 5 or 6 games but it’s easy to imagine them winning only 1 or 2 games next year.

And so with that, they need to be planning how to be above .500 in 2025 and 2026 because 2024 is going to be horrible. Their only objective should be to get better in 2025. It’s easy to imagine that as a QB at 3 but if they can get enough assets, it’s also possible to imagine a path where the QB comes next draft also.

 

[yalesoxfan]

I’m not sure about the first part (pushing BB out, he is why the roster is bad) but think you’re 110% right about the second part. The Patriots are going to be terrible next year and they need to be prepared for that reality. If they hit on a QB, they could win 5 or 6 games but it’s easy to imagine them winning only 1 or 2 games next year.

And so with that, they need to be planning how to be above .500 in 2025 and 2026 because 2024 is going to be horrible. Their only objective should be to get better in 2025. It’s easy to imagine that as a QB at 3 but if they can get enough assets, it’s also possible to imagine a path where the QB comes next draft also.

I agree they will be pretty bad in 2024, but not top 3 bad. That’s why I think they should choose the best QB available and let him sit all year behind Brissett. Next year, pick up the best receiver possible with your, hopefully, top 10 pick. By then, hopefully your OLine is more cohesive and you have something to work with on offense.

 

[brendan f]

I could see it. In fact I would not be surprised if the NE board is... Caleb, Maye, JJ, Daniels. The past drafts for Wolf and the tree he came from really really likes big arms and decent mobility over great mobility but averagish arms.

I could see them being down on Daniels for the arm strength.

Yeah, starting to think they're going to trade out of 3 if Maye is gone. They're likely going to get a haul with Penix, maybe McCarthy , still in play.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Yeah, starting to think they're going to trade out of 3 if Maye is gone. They're likely going to get a haul with Penix, maybe McCarthy , still in play.

I cant imagine a worse fit for the Pats than Penix

A QB with limited mobility and a huge injury history behind a horrendous pass blocking OL. Oh and he’s strictly a vertical passer and the Pats don’t have anyone capable of getting open deep unless you’re relying on KJ Osborn or Kendrick Bourne

 

[brendan f]

I cant imagine a worse fit for the Pats than Penix

A QB with limited mobility and a huge injury history behind a horrendous pass blocking OL. Oh and he’s strictly a vertical passer and the Pats don’t have anyone capable of getting open deep unless you’re relying on KJ Osborn or Kendrick Bourne

His injuries were early in his college career. Daniels is also an injury risk based on his playing style. If the Pats have him graded similarly to Daniels and the Vikings covet Daniels, it makes a lot of sense to get more value. The Pats' rebuild was always more likely to be two years anyway, and if they swing for a trade the Oline might not be so horrendous. Also, his mobility isn't terrible. He's not going to rush for yards but he's a capable scrambler. I see him as having.a pretty high floor, whereas Daniels has the higher ceiling.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1772249737980256370

 

[rodderick]

I cant imagine a worse fit for the Pats than Penix

A QB with limited mobility and a huge injury history behind a horrendous pass blocking OL. Oh and he’s strictly a vertical passer and the Pats don’t have anyone capable of getting open deep unless you’re relying on KJ Osborn or Kendrick Bourne

I disagree with this take simply because Penix has an incredibly low pressure to sack conversion rate, which indicates he's able to deal with the rush from within the pocket very well. It's by far the best in this class. Mobile QBs can very often create pressures and sacks, Justin Fields doesn't help a bad pass blocking OL, for instance.