They only had two months or so in the majors so it's too soon to make any decision about their long term future.Danny_Darwin said:
Your 2015 Boston Red Sox
- Thread starter In my lifetime
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OptimusPapi said:
Is it, though? Ben Cherington was around in 2006 when the team made a similar decision about Jonathan Papelbon, and he'd been in the Majors just as long as Ranaudo had at that point? Additionally, their performance in the Minors doesn't just get thrown out the window.
And then if indeed it is "too soon," then I reiterate my original question: when should they make that decision, exactly?
I always got the sense with Paps that he was thrown into the closer role because Foulke was not right and they had nobody else to turn to. He then took to closing and the rest is history. I don't think the case on him is definitive. As for the minor league numbers they don't lead you to think these pitchers are the second coming of Pedro but I still think a few of them can turn into nice mid rotation starters. I also think one or two of Barnes, Webster, Ranaudo RDLR is getting traded. As for your last question I don't think there is a one size fits all answerDanny_Darwin said:
So this blurb just popped up on rotoworld.com, my computer is acting all screwy seeing as I dumped a beer all over it so sorry I can only post a link
www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/450617/report-red-sox-coaches-all-hate-cespedes
If this is true and the goal is to trade him, I think the FO must be pissed about this leaking. All it would do is hurt his trade value
edit: if someone could quote this for me that would be awesome... my copy/paste function doesn't work
www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/450617/report-red-sox-coaches-all-hate-cespedes
If this is true and the goal is to trade him, I think the FO must be pissed about this leaking. All it would do is hurt his trade value
edit: if someone could quote this for me that would be awesome... my copy/paste function doesn't work
I think the FO probably doesn't care since it cites the famous "insider" who is talking to the NY Daily News for what reason exactly?
Does Chili Davis already hate Cespedes?
Does Chili Davis already hate Cespedes?
Jed Zeppelin said:
Even if its false, it still hurts his trade value if that is what they intend
lxt said:
Uehara took himself out of the closer role when he was struggling. I suspect there will be an incentive laden contract.
Betts for Strasburg? Whoa, I'd have to think long on that one. We certainly haven't much scratched the surface with Mookie yet, but I don't think we've seen Strasburg's best seasons, either.
I'd say no on Betts for Strasburg. I think. On the surface that seems insane, but Mookie's got 6 cost-controlled years ahead of him while Strasburg has 2 arbitration years left. Plus, between pitching injuries and the hitting environment, I'm a full supporter of the Theo/Jed plan of focusing on growing hitters and then worrying about pitching.
Late to the party, but part of the reason Paps remained closer was the belief that it would be easier on his arm/shoulder/whatever it was and that he was an injury waiting to happen.
after watching Bumgarner single handedly win this World Series, I'll gladly pass on the Panda and go full bore on Scherzer or Lester...then deal for another 1 (Hamel, Zimmerman, Cueto please)...if the question is Betts for Strasberg, the answer is yes...the Hot Stove hoopla has begun
The ability to see established intl studs in the same light we see our Michael Bowden-esque prospect cacheLuis Taint said:
CaskNFappin said:
We don't have enough data to say that yet, or to refute it. Most likely it's true of some of them and not others. To lump them together in order to dismiss them en masse in this way is Shank-like.
Most pitchers struggle on first hitting the majors. Some will stall, others will go on to have solid careers. The only way to find out which ones are which is to let them pitch and see what happens. It's not realistic to expect a team in the Sox' position to entrust more than one or two rotation slots at a time to pitchers who haven't proven they have the ability to succeed. But we shouldn't make the mistake of thinking that this means these pitchers have proven they don't have the ability to succeed. They haven't proven anything yet, either way.
Here are three sets of numbers--the order is FIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, WHIP, ERA+. All were accumulated through the season where the pitcher lost rookie eligibility (and all three were roughly the same age--24 or 25--in that season).
Pitcher A: 4.12, 8.2, 3.6, 1.1, 1.42, 78
Pitcher B: 4.85, 6.8, 3.0, 1.4, 1.41, 75
Pitcher C: 4.49, 7.2, 3.5, 1.3, 1.62, 75
Tell me which of them is Bowden, which is Brandon Workman, and which is Derek Lowe. No peeking.
A is Workman, B is Lowe, C is Bowden
Obligatory (yet useless) disclaimer: I am not projecting a Derek-Lowe-like career for Brandon Workman.
CaskNFappin said:
Once again, Michael Bowden was a highly regarded minor league pitcher because he had average/good fastball command, an unconventional delivery and primarily a plus curveball, which his stuff played out of. For some reason, his curveball became flatter and flatter as years went on, getting to the point where he scrapped it completely from his arsenal. At that point, he tried to incorporate a cutter and reinvent himself as a pitcher, which didn't work out for him in the end. The prospect Michael Bowden was a very different player than the major leaguer Michael Bowden. We'll never know what he would've amounted to had his best pitch not completely fucking evaporated out of thin air, but it's a bit disingenuous to use him as an example of overhyped Red Sox pitching prospects, because his trajectory was so unusual. It's like Henry Owens all of a sudden losing all feel for his changeup, I'd bet he'd look a whole lot more fallible if that happened.
We don't know what will happen to the young pitchers the Red Sox have now, there's still time for them to catch on/flame out, but they shouldn't all be grouped together dismissively and compared to a guy who never amounted to much because of very specific circumstances.
rodderick said:
fair enough, but there is no way in hell the rangers trade us Yu Darvish for a package that is not headlined by betts or at the very least one that would include both swihart and owens plus one of those guys. While he probably only has two years left on his deal(i dont know what triggers his last year turning into player option), there is no way in hell the rangers trade him for anything less than a kings ransom. He makes 10 million the next two years and they can always trade him at the deadline anyway, there is no reason for them to trade him this offseason for anything less than a massive overpay. if they start throwing out feelers they are looking for packages headlined for elite prospects, and they may not even want betts due to their middle infield backload. probably elite pitching prospects or an elite OF power prospect.
edit: i agree with you, our prospects are different from bowden and in an ideal world, i could see RDR turning into a 2 guy, with ranaudo, webster, and workman being good 4/5/6 guys. If Owens and Rodriguez turn into 2 starters, thats a good rotation with a 1 added in FA(i think its much more likely that happens next offseason). A Yu Darvish trade is not happening. I think the Sox may make some improvements next year but really see them competing more for a wild card spot in august and september next year, hovering around 80-85 wins.
Wait why is Texas trading Darvish?
Darvish is 28 and is under contract for three years at 31 million (unless he finishes at least 4th in Cy Young voting in the next two years in which case he can void the last year of his contract)
They could let Rios walk if they were trying to save money. That said Texas was destroyed by injuries this year. I am not sure they should be throwing in the towel. They aren't Philly.
Darvish is 28 and is under contract for three years at 31 million (unless he finishes at least 4th in Cy Young voting in the next two years in which case he can void the last year of his contract)
They could let Rios walk if they were trying to save money. That said Texas was destroyed by injuries this year. I am not sure they should be throwing in the towel. They aren't Philly.
sean1562 said:
Oh, I wasn't talking about an eventual trade for Darvish, I was just addressing that post in a vaccuum.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Look at that second time Rudy looked something up. We are on a roll.
Trading Pedroia is a non starter. That is something this ownership group wants no part of. Imagine if the team went into free fall again and Heyward was underperforming? The press the ownership doesn't own would eat them alive.
Not sure the Phillies would have any interest in Middlebrooks. They already have Maikel Franco and are stuck with Howard at 1B.
rodderick said:
yea haha i realized it after i posted that you werent even advocating for that, so i added the edit. sorry, the "Lets trade for Yu Darvish!" thing set me off and i felt the need to at least try and squash that before it spiraled off into a conversation that just would not die. now that we have moved on from that, has anyone ever thought of trading Dustin Pedroia?
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats · 50m 50 minutes ago
Speier guesses Sandoval to SF, Sox in on Headley, ready for a possible Donaldson offer. Cespedes with considerable trade value...
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats · 51m 51 minutes ago
...Says no to Betts for Strasburg. Very real possibility JBJ is traded. Excellent chance one of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson traded
https://twitter.com/redsoxstats
Speier guesses Sandoval to SF, Sox in on Headley, ready for a possible Donaldson offer. Cespedes with considerable trade value...
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats · 51m 51 minutes ago
...Says no to Betts for Strasburg. Very real possibility JBJ is traded. Excellent chance one of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson traded
https://twitter.com/redsoxstats
OptimusPapi said:
Big fan of Hughes2.50?
Front line pitching is far more important than 3B for the Red Sox. I much rather get two FA pitchers than dip into Sandoval pond.
If you see a post that offends you for some reason, use the Report button and let us handle it please.OptimusPapi said:
OptimusPapi said:
A team like Detroit with a lot of offense but looking for a defensive CF would see a lot of value in JBJ. At worse you have a 9 hole hitter than is going going to give GG caliber defense in center. Maybe the San Francisco Giants depending on where they see Pagan (he is not a good defensive CF).
Right now it is tough carrying both Vasquez and JBJ in the same line up even though I think they both can turn out to be productive hitters.
I am disappointed to see it said that JBJ is a good bet to be dealt. I was still hoping to see him emerge after some more time in PAW.
Re Sandoval's burden on the 2017-2018 payroll, BBref has the Sox with approx. 75m obligated in those years, factoring in guaranteed contracts and estimates on arbitration and pre-arb rates of pay. That leaves another 115M or so in payroll room in those years. Book Panda for 18M in each of those years, and this would still leave close to 100M to fill out on a speculative team where there is good reason to believe c, 2b, 3b, ss, a couple OF spots and half a pitching staff are already accounted for.
The question remains IF the Sox don't pay the going rate for any of the top end FAs, where will they spend the money?
Re Sandoval's burden on the 2017-2018 payroll, BBref has the Sox with approx. 75m obligated in those years, factoring in guaranteed contracts and estimates on arbitration and pre-arb rates of pay. That leaves another 115M or so in payroll room in those years. Book Panda for 18M in each of those years, and this would still leave close to 100M to fill out on a speculative team where there is good reason to believe c, 2b, 3b, ss, a couple OF spots and half a pitching staff are already accounted for.
The question remains IF the Sox don't pay the going rate for any of the top end FAs, where will they spend the money?
Buzzkill Pauley said:
The Pedroia trade isn't happening. First, I'm don't think it's enough to pull Heyward, Walden and Shreve out of Atlanta. And while Pedroia's contract is great, his value to the Red Sox is higher than his value to other teams. It will very likely never make much sense to trade him, so even if the Braves were interested in him, I doubt they would be willing to put together a package that makes it worth pulling the trigger from the Boston side. This just isn't going to happen.
Cespedes for Latos is a framework that can be built upon, but I don't think it's enough to get the Reds to give up Latos. This has been discussed in a few places on the main board, though, so I won't get into detail about it again here. The last trade proposal you make is a video game trade, though. One solid prospect with some value and a bunch of junk thrown in until the AI goes from "not interested" to "Okay, we'll do that deal" because of a quirk in the programming. There is absolutely no chance Hamels is traded for anything even close to that package. If you want to get him out of Philly, it's going to be a package that starts with one of Owens or Rodriguez, includes one of Margot or Devers, and then gets into the mid tier guys like Escobar or Ranaudo. It's possible that Amaro won't budge from Swihart, of course, which would make the whole thing a non-starter.
Sorry I was referring to Speier chat, referenced above. Speier actually said only that a JBJ deal was a "very real possibility," whatever that is, but it is less than a "good bet," true. I agree completely, it makes no sense to deal him, particularly if he is valued as a mediocre, at best, 4th OFer type.
Rasputin said:
Probably because other teams have a higher opinion of him than we as a fan base does. He may be the best defensive OF in baseball. If he could hit anywhere close to his minor league numbers, he is an all star. The Red Sox just signed a Cuban kid for 7 years who plays the same position. Teams are going to ask about JBJ. At worst with his defense he is a 4th OF.
I mean... there's no way you don't know the reasons why. You clearly don't agree and often conflate your own take with what's obviously most prudent, but neither of those things should keep you from understanding why someone else may arrive at that conclusion... right?Rasputin said:
Rusney Castillo, a glut of OF, needs perhaps addressed via trade, his 2014 offensive performance. That's just to start. I'm not advocating it myself per se but I'm not getting a "why on earth" vibe from Speier's prediction.
Rasputin said:
I wouldn't even go that far about Bogaerts. I don't think he'll be traded, and I don't want him to be traded, but I can certainly imagine scenarios in which he'd be traded.
Buchholz, not even sure what he could fetch. Some seven years or so in the bigs and do we even know where he is in his career? Normally at this point in someone's career the potential label has worn off. Good Buchholz shows flashes of brilliance, bad Buchholz a questionable #5. Thoughts?
u
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In my lifetime said:
With Koji signed, the budget above is increased by $5M to $49M for 2 starters and 1 reliever (assuming they already re-sign a Miller type at $8M).
I concur that Wombat should just be retained and not waste money on another 3B, but re-direct that money to pitching.
But, IF they can shed some salary on one of the more expensive outfielders (Victorino or Cespedes), that could free up another, say, $6M - increasing the budget to $55M. That's enough to make some decisions on whether or not to pursue two FA Aces, or one FA Ace +1 + Reliever + LHH something or other.
The 2015 Red Sox seem pretty well poised to make a splash this off season.
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 1m1 minute ago
Cherington said #RedSox would indeed speak with Andrew Miller but noted team had other needs.
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/527953569719533569
Cherington said #RedSox would indeed speak with Andrew Miller but noted team had other needs.
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/527953569719533569
This offseason could be insane for the Red Sox. So many potential directions they could move in.
Of course, it might be as simple as: (1) Signing Lester, (2) Signing Masterson or some other similar guy, (3) Signing a decent 3b, and (4) Signing a bullpen arm. And that be that.
And it might even be less exciting than that!
Of course, it might be as simple as: (1) Signing Lester, (2) Signing Masterson or some other similar guy, (3) Signing a decent 3b, and (4) Signing a bullpen arm. And that be that.
And it might even be less exciting than that!
Jason Mastrodonato @JMastrodonato 21s21 seconds ago
Cherington on WEEI says he expects the Red Sox to have one of the top payrolls in the game next year.
https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/527963009625628672
Cherington on WEEI says he expects the Red Sox to have one of the top payrolls in the game next year.
https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/527963009625628672
ivanvamp said:
It could, and I think I would prefer this to other scenarios, provided that the "Masterson or some other similar guy" is actually quite a bit better than Masterson.
And of course the decent 3b could turn out to be quite a bit better than decent.
But if it ends up as Lester, Headley, and two pitchers who are neither terrible nor outstanding, well, I think I can live and like our chances to be a pretty good team in 2015.
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