Thank you for the post ... Gammons may have the HOF honors but it is Speier who is the wordsmith.jimbobim said:
Your 2015 Boston Red Sox
- Thread starter In my lifetime
- Start date
- Status
Be careful, when I made a similar suggestion the board nearly took off my fingers. Although, I must admit I did not have Napoli in my list nor did I specifically point out I was talking about 2016.Rasputin said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
The source is the guy who has the best rolodex in the business. Not to mention the fact that the .545 OPS he had in AAA this year came in a grand total of 50 games. In AA, his OPS this year was .804. And, in case you were wondering, his OPS in AA in 2013 was (insert drumroll here) .558.
Which is to say, after a pretty crappy first showing in AA, he came back and did much better. Then he had a pretty crappy first showing in AAA. Is it all that unreasonable to think he'll do better? Players take time to adjust to new levels.
And his mL performances at the same or younger ages are pretty comparable to Brandon Crawford and JJ Hardy, i.e. really good glove, bat that isn't killing you. He's a safe bet to be an average to above average starting shortstop. The Sox are hoping that Bogaerts is an all-star. It would be real hard for Marrero's defense to bridge a .100+ point OPS gap.Rasputin said:
Thankfully the club can, if no one blows them away for Marrero, simply keep Deven, let him face AAA in 2015, and if he's ready while the jury is still out on Bogaerts let Marrero take over the utility MI role and start seeing ML ABs himself.
But Marrero's defense doesn't have to bridge a 100 point OPS gap, it just has to combine with Bogaerts' sub par defense at short to bridge the gap between Bogaerts at short and who knows at third and the tandem of Marrero at short and X at third.
And considering we have first open in 2016 and DH open not long after, it's a decision that doesn't have to be made now.
As much as a sexy signing like Sandoval is, well, sexy, I find myself hoping for a shorter commitment to third.
I'm also finding myself wanting to trust the kid pitchers. Let the lower ceiling guys fill out the major league bullpen.
Uehara, Mujica, Lefty X, Layne, Workman, Barnes, maybe Webster.
Lester, Buchholz, Kelly, RDLR, maybe Webster, maybe a crew of prospects rotate through the fifth spot.
And maybe it costs a playoff spot, but the team will be better than the 2014 team and we'll get closer to the next great Red Sox Team.
And considering we have first open in 2016 and DH open not long after, it's a decision that doesn't have to be made now.
As much as a sexy signing like Sandoval is, well, sexy, I find myself hoping for a shorter commitment to third.
I'm also finding myself wanting to trust the kid pitchers. Let the lower ceiling guys fill out the major league bullpen.
Uehara, Mujica, Lefty X, Layne, Workman, Barnes, maybe Webster.
Lester, Buchholz, Kelly, RDLR, maybe Webster, maybe a crew of prospects rotate through the fifth spot.
And maybe it costs a playoff spot, but the team will be better than the 2014 team and we'll get closer to the next great Red Sox Team.
There are at least four legitimate starting 3B options in the FA market (Headley, Sandoval, Hanley, and Lowrie). There won't be another decent 3B FA available next season period.Rasputin said:
Even still, expecting Marrero to be worth more than Bogaerts or one of the four previously mentioned 3B options, all with proven ML quality bats, is very wishful thinking. Marrero has always been viewed as a bottom of the order hitter as a MLer.
I would personally prefer to go with Hanley. He's by far the best hitter and now willing to change positions. After one year at 3B if Bogaerts needs to move or Cecchini is clearly ready Hanley could be moved to LF or DH if Ortiz is done. All positional shifts for Hanley should help keep him healthier than playing SS, and health has been the biggest limit on his offensive production (down seasons are consistently linked to injured seasons). Ultimately he could be a DH who can sub in at the OF corners, 3B, and a little SS in a pinch.
It would make the lineup very RH heavy for a year, but given Fenway's advantages for RH pull power I'd say why the hell not embrace it for one season and maybe ride a huge home field advantage up the standings? Four of the most likely AAA mLers to become ML regulars (Swihart, Cecchini, Shaw, and Bradley after getting himself sorted back in AAA) are all LH bats, so the lineup is likely to balance itself out over the next couple years.
I'm not sure we should be buying the Marrero hype. It's great that his AFL performance has made people see him as a first division starting shortstop, but remember, he's one of the older players in the league and he has a BABIP well over .400, if I'm doing the math right.
If Ben gets an offer that values Marrero as a likely starter at short, he should take it.
If Ben gets an offer that values Marrero as a likely starter at short, he should take it.
Drek717 said:
Sure, Marrero isn't going to be worth more than any of those guys in the short term. Certainly not in 2015 when he'll be spending at least most of the season at AAA, but there are decent reasons not to sign any of those guys that don't have anything to do with Deven Marrero. I mean, Hanley Ramirez is going to be getting well over a hundred million and he's already 30. I want no piece of that at all.
What exactly was wrong with it? that we are down 4/5 of a starting rotation and the only starter kept has to be the most frustrating SP anyone here can remember. A pitcher who has never pitched 200 innings in any season. With as many holes as we have going all in and trying to patch all of them at once is a formula that will likely ultimately set the team back. Even signing 2 aces this season wouldn't be enough.MakMan44 said:
I'd rather the team let most of the kids develop at least one more year then re-asses the internal strengths and weaknesses of the team before going all in. That gives the team a MUCH better shot at contending for multiple years. I'm fine with that and expect the team to sign 1 top FA pitcher, and possibly trade for another.
Your in your early 20's and likely think the Sox should be all in every year because that's all you have experienced. You just witnessed what hasn't happened to the Sox in 2 generations, the amount of rookies starting on the team at one time, I believe it was 1972. The team is at a different stage of development than you have ever experiences and maybe that's why your were confused by me using that term. That concept is foreign to you as it relates to a team.
Can they pull it off? sure anything is possible but the rush to contend now may give away players who 1-2 years down the line can you the same approx. production for a fraction of the cost. My suggested course of action allows them to sort out what rookies/1st yr player actually live up to their expected production, then re-assess what they need and then they'd be better plugging actual needs then perceived needs for their forseeable future. Why not try an approach that gives you more opportunities to succeed?
At what age do you expect Ortiz drop of production to be a sign of things to come? Be real, it's happening sooner than later.
Pedey has to actually be healthy for a whole year first before one can expect any different, we are are at 3 straight year of hand and wrist injuries and now he's on the wrong side of 30, injury risk increases at this point as a rule of thumb even if you have been previously healthy.
A few smart moves and they are right back in it you claim, if only it was that simple, why didn't BC think of that last year?
seantoo said:
They were supposed to be right in the thick of things last season, but as I pointed out in the quoted post, a lot went wrong. 2013 proves pretty definitively that a few smart moves CAN be the major difference between a shitty team and a long PS run.
Anyway, going after Lester and trading some of the excess pitchers while pick up someone like McCarthy allows the Sox to take a decent run at competing without giving up any valuable resources such as Xander or Betts. Sure, they could ease off the gas and let the kids develop further but as you pointed out, Papi and Pedey are getting older and you can't rely on them to be incredible for much longer. I want to make an effort to compete next season because it literally doesn't make sense to waste the last couple seasons of Papi's career when it's so easy to at least shoot for the 2nd WC and make a run in the playoffs, not because I know nothing other than competing.
Anyway, going after Lester and trading some of the excess pitchers while pick up someone like McCarthy allows the Sox to take a decent run at competing without giving up any valuable resources such as Xander or Betts. Sure, they could ease off the gas and let the kids develop further but as you pointed out, Papi and Pedey are getting older and you can't rely on them to be incredible for much longer. I want to make an effort to compete next season because it literally doesn't make sense to waste the last couple seasons of Papi's career when it's so easy to at least shoot for the 2nd WC and make a run in the playoffs, not because I know nothing other than competing.
That's probably the only point I really agree with, actually. It's not like any of the young pitchers stepped up and dominated when presented with the chance. I think Barnes showed that his future is the pen, RDLR was solid but unspectacular, Webster started poorly but at least ended on a high note, and Joe Kelly probably makes it more like 3/5 than 4/5 but for the most part, the rotation is a total mess.OptimusPapi said:
I would argue that Bucholz Kelly and one of the kids is a lock. So that would put us two down. Out of those two I think one needs to be an ace but the Sox can afford to get a second tier pitcher and be fine.
I agree which seems to indicate that the sox as currently constructed have 3/5 of a rotation.Rudy Pemberton said:
As currently constructed, they have worse expected performance out of 4/5th of the rotation going into 2015 than they had going into 2014, and the 1/5 that is returning, was awful.OptimusPapi said:
People keep trying to say that Kelly and RDLR were good last year, they weren't. They were terrible. Inconsistent, unable to pitch into the 7th inning, lots of walks, not a lot of strikeouts. They currently have Buchholz and Kelly, who cannot be relied upon as anything more than back of the rotation starters, and a bunch of not-really-all-that-young pitchers who showed last season that they are more likely to fail than succeed in the major leagues, at least in 2015. Frankly, I'm hoping Owens shows up and wins a spot in the rotation right out of the gate next spring, because he at least has the best chance to be really good.
I think you misunderstand my post. I was not arguing one way or the other the ability of Kelly Bucholz or any of the young kids that we saw this year. It seems to me that three of the rotation spots are spoken for by Kelly, Bucholz and whomever wins the job out of spring training. That is the assumption I am making and it seems to be an assumption that most of sosh as well as the writers are making. Now do you think the Cherington is going to acquire three starters? Maybe something like sign Lester sign Shields and trade for one of Cueto, Latos, Zimmerman etc? Now I think you and I are approaching things from a different prospective. I absolutely don't think out of Kelly or one of the kids we have the next Kershaw or Pedro, but I am not entirely convinced that they are all number fives if we are lucky. That seems to me overly pessimistic. I believe the whole reason the Sox traded for Kelly is they believed he could take the next step and become a solid mid rotation pitcher. Given his arsenal I think that is a good bet to take. As for the young pitchers I am not ready to pronounce judgement on them until I have seen them pitch more then a hundred innings in the majors. Now maybe you are right and they are all going to suck and we will be lucky to get middle relievers. But even looking at the minor league numbers I can imagine a scenario where one of them takes the next step forward. As for Bucholz he is a guy with a career era of 3.92 and a career fip of 4.02. I think it is likely he is a mid rotation starter and the only thing to discuss is how many innings he will pitch. But all in all I respect your views and of course your right to have them, I just can't agree with them.Plympton91 said:
Joe Kelly has an arsenal? His career K/BB is 1.80 and it was a terrifying 1.28 for the Red Sox. He looks like (at best) a career 4/5 starter to me. Buchholz and DeLaRosa are also tough to trust going into 2015. They need two to acquire REALLY good starters or have a lot of good fortune if the plan is to have a 90 win team.OptimusPapi said:
snowmanny said:
It's silly to answer a point about an "arsenal" by pointing to K/BB ratios.
Kelly has a sinker that averages 94.5 and hits 97-98, plus a 4-seamer that sits even higher. His curve and changeup are serviceable, if unexceptional, and he has a slider that David Ross likes. A sinking fastball with that velocity, plus a useful set of 2-3 secondary pitches, sounds like an "arsenal" to me.
He's a ground-ball guy who pitches to contact, so his K/BB ratio is probably never going to be stellar, although it can and should be better than 1.28:1. A pitcher like Kelly is going to succeed via low BABIP (.274 last year, .290 career) and home run rates, and keeping the walk rate average-ish. This is probably not the profile of a staff ace, but with a little more improvement it could be that of a solid mid-rotation guy.
One reason for patience with Kelly is that even at age 26, he has been pitching a relatively short time. He was only converted to pitching in college, in 2007. He was a closer in college and started in the Cards system as a reliever, moving into the rotation in 2010 in A-ball. He has pitched roughly 750 innings total, including college. So he is probably a little behind most pitchers his age in terms of experience and feel. (At the same age, for instance, Clay Buchholz had thrown about 900 innings in the pros alone, not counting college and high school.)
That is all I am trying to say. There are a lot of unknowns on the 2015 Red Sox. Even if Cherington gets the two pitchers and a third baseman there are still going to be a lot of unknowns. It just seems too many people are immediately assuming the worst case scenario. I am not advocating assuming the best case scenario, I am just trying to keep it in the middle. Some stuff will go wrong some will go right and while I am cautiously optimistic about 2015 I understand a lot can go wrong or right.Savin Hillbilly said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
True, but that's also his worst walk rate in any meaningful-sized stint as a pro. His career MLB BB/9 is 3.35. I think it's reasonable to chalk up the Sox walk rate to adjustment to a new situation, especially when you consider that he walked 13 in his first 17 Sox innings, 9 in his next 17, and then 10 in his last 26.2--still more than you'd like, but he was getting steadily better over those two months. Only once in his last seven starts did he allow more than three walks.
I think it's safe to assume he has no <2 BB/9 seasons in his future, but he's not Mark Clear, either.
seantoo said:
I would be pretty stoked with a rotation of Lester, Hamels, Buchholz, Kelly, and one of our youngins. It could definitely be improved upon but its in the top half of the league.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Exactly, thank you, its November. Its not like they're playing next week. The FO deliberately put themselves in the position of having holes in the rotation this offseason. If it gets to be spring training is right around the corner, all FA's are signed and Hamels/Cueto etc. have already been got in trades, and the rotation still looks like ? / ? / Kelly / Buchholz / Ruby de la Webnaudo, then by all means sound the alarm.
There is an argument to be made that Kelly is still learning how to mix his pitches. His K/9 as a starter is 5.6, as a reliever it's 8.4. His K/BB ratio goes from a 1.58 as a starter to 3.50 as a reliever. Further, as a starter his K/BB ratio is 2.53 in first PA in game, 1.14 in the second, and 1.42 in the 3rd. By inning his K/BB by inning is 2.31 in the 1st, 3.17 in the 2nd, 1.70 in the 3rd, then 1.25 in the 4th, and 0.90 in the 5th. A good case exists that if he learns how to keep hitters off-balance multiple times through the lineup he would be a damn good pitcher. He's under Sox control until 2019 so they've got some time to help him find out.snowmanny said:
Also, I doubt the FO's approach is going to revolve around hitting a specific win target in 2015. I'd imagine they're trying to learn from last season and have a more staggered, depth based approach to player commitments and breaking in young talent.
Something like one SP from the tier of Lester, Scherzer, Cueto, Zimmerman and one SP from the next tier down of short/one year commitments like Latos, Leake, Samardzija, Kazmir, etc. or a arb. years younger guy with no real money commitment like Cashner, Ross, etc..
One new ace who gets real money, one legitimate #2 candidate with no long term commitment. Then you have the front line ace you sign long term taken care of, the next step down is someone you aren't committed to but who can be expected to produce, and you see who of Buchholz, Kelly, and the youngsters takes a step forward. If the offense is as good as what the Sox maintained up until 2014 and the top two pitchers hold serve the Sox would be competitive. If one of the back 3-5 figure it out then you probably win the division and make a title run. Then that 3-5 guy moves up to the #2 role and a young guy from the minors (Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson) step in to take their place in the 3-5 horse race.
Now if none of the 3-5 step up you decline Buchholz' option, decide if Kelly gets another shot or instead becomes a damn good reliever, and you go shopping in the 2016 SP pool (a nice one as well) for another front end starter.
Keep that same basic mix and the Sox can have a competitive rotation with fresh arms long term.
Could also have something to do with adjusting to the league and being hurt for parts of 2014. I don't know if Kelly will still be in Boston come opening day but he is a better pitcher than what was shown. Still, this is someone who could be traded as part of a bigger deal.Rudy Pemberton said:
The thick of things and contending are not the same thing. I thought we all collectively agreed that most things went right for the Sox in 2013 and the were likely to regress down to about 90/91 wins. BIlly Beane and Theo both went on the record about the more chances you give yourself to make the playoffs the better overall chance you have of winning it all. That's common sense to me. Your approach has a better chance of limiting several years of contention and increasing next years chance. Being able to pull off both is the Holy Grail of being a GM (extremely difficult to do) and Ben has pulled if off before, 2013, so of course anything is possible. I hope that happens but I'd rather at this stage be more cautious. As insane as Ortiz was in the playoffs without the lights out pitching we had it would have gone for nothing. 'Wasted years' likely does not apply to our limited core of Pedroia and Ortiz (who else?) because it is such a limited core group of guys right now. That also is what spurred my idea of considering moving him.MakMan44 said:
PS: BTW at a silent auction for the greater Boston food-bank I ended up with a Pedrioa signed batting helmet and two Sox tickets for next year, so don't anyone think I'm not a fan of Dustin, I just happened to see things differently than others and view team building more like a GM does (no emotions). That particular ship has sailed.
I don't disagree that's what is likely to happen next season, but whoever we land for the other 2 spots, would that be a team that could win it all? We obviously have to wait and see. Even if we aquire 2 aces, a 3,4 &5 of Buchholz, Kelly and (insert prospect here) is still to questionable to be confident that it will be enough for next year.OptimusPapi said:
seantoo said:
Confident enough to do what?
If the Sox were to sign your two aces, say Lester and Shields, and get any competent third baseman, there is no question that the Sox would be competitive. They'd probably make the post season and would definitely be a team you don't want to play.
Some of the rumored and known options, not necessarily in order:
Starters
1A - Lester signing, 1B, Hammels trade, 1C Cueto trade, 1D Zimmerman trade, 1E Samardzija trade, 1F Shields signing
2A - Ross trade, 2B Iwakuma trade, 2C Latos trade, 2D Leake trade, 2E Cashner trade, 2F, Kennedy trade, 2G FA signing (many choices, but costly)
3A, Exercise a second of the choices in step 2
3B
1A - Sandoval signing, 1B Ramirez signing, 1C Headley signing, 1D in house option until mid season, 1E trade for Murphy or Valbuena
Bullpen
1A Miller signing, 1B Downs signing, 1C trade for LH reliever
In the best case scenario, they fit all the pieces together and retain the roster and financial flexibility they wish. Here's my suggestion:
Sign Lester @ 6/132
Sign Sandoval @5/90, alternate is to sign Hanley at similar numbers
Trade Napoli for Iwakuma
Sign LaRoche @ 3/45
Trade Craig, Webster and Owens to SD for Ross
Sign Miller @ 4/30
Start the 2015 season with:
Lester, Ross, Iwakuma, Buchholz, Kelly
Castillo, Pedroia, Ortiz, Cespedes, LaRoche, Sandoval, Victorino, Bogaerts, Vazquez, with Betts, Holt, Nava,and Butler/Lavarnway. Vic starts as a showcase for a trade
Koji, Miller, Tazawa, Mujica, Layne, Workman, RDLR
Hope to finish the 2015 season with:
Lester, Cueto (or other available ace), Ross, Buchholz or Iwakuma and Kelly. Assume Buchholz or Iwakuma dealt to obtain the ace. Johnson could be pushing Kelly for 5th spot.
Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Bogaerts, LaRoche, Sandoval, Castillo, Swihart, JBJ, with Holt, Nava, Weeks/Brentz and Vazquez
Koji, Miller, Tazawa, RDLR, Mujica, Layne, Workman, or Barnes, or Renaudo
Victorino and Cespedes will have been dealt in the mid year swap meet..
Going into 2016, it's likely one or two of the kids (Johnson and EdRod) are ready to take rotation spots, if not, there is a great FA market next year and they will have funds to use if needed. Swihart will have taken the starting Catcher spot and one of the kids back fills Mujica. So they could add 3, and possibly 4 more cost controlled positions to the 2016 roster. This allows the pattern used in 2015 to be deployed again. Start the year with a competitive, deep and flexible team that can trade veterans or prospects for needed parts mid year. The difference next year and going forward however, is they will have less needs, more available funds, and more prospects closer to ML ready. They would enjoy the same luxury going into 2017, and it would appear 2018.
Starters
1A - Lester signing, 1B, Hammels trade, 1C Cueto trade, 1D Zimmerman trade, 1E Samardzija trade, 1F Shields signing
2A - Ross trade, 2B Iwakuma trade, 2C Latos trade, 2D Leake trade, 2E Cashner trade, 2F, Kennedy trade, 2G FA signing (many choices, but costly)
3A, Exercise a second of the choices in step 2
3B
1A - Sandoval signing, 1B Ramirez signing, 1C Headley signing, 1D in house option until mid season, 1E trade for Murphy or Valbuena
Bullpen
1A Miller signing, 1B Downs signing, 1C trade for LH reliever
In the best case scenario, they fit all the pieces together and retain the roster and financial flexibility they wish. Here's my suggestion:
Sign Lester @ 6/132
Sign Sandoval @5/90, alternate is to sign Hanley at similar numbers
Trade Napoli for Iwakuma
Sign LaRoche @ 3/45
Trade Craig, Webster and Owens to SD for Ross
Sign Miller @ 4/30
Start the 2015 season with:
Lester, Ross, Iwakuma, Buchholz, Kelly
Castillo, Pedroia, Ortiz, Cespedes, LaRoche, Sandoval, Victorino, Bogaerts, Vazquez, with Betts, Holt, Nava,and Butler/Lavarnway. Vic starts as a showcase for a trade
Koji, Miller, Tazawa, Mujica, Layne, Workman, RDLR
Hope to finish the 2015 season with:
Lester, Cueto (or other available ace), Ross, Buchholz or Iwakuma and Kelly. Assume Buchholz or Iwakuma dealt to obtain the ace. Johnson could be pushing Kelly for 5th spot.
Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Bogaerts, LaRoche, Sandoval, Castillo, Swihart, JBJ, with Holt, Nava, Weeks/Brentz and Vazquez
Koji, Miller, Tazawa, RDLR, Mujica, Layne, Workman, or Barnes, or Renaudo
Victorino and Cespedes will have been dealt in the mid year swap meet..
Going into 2016, it's likely one or two of the kids (Johnson and EdRod) are ready to take rotation spots, if not, there is a great FA market next year and they will have funds to use if needed. Swihart will have taken the starting Catcher spot and one of the kids back fills Mujica. So they could add 3, and possibly 4 more cost controlled positions to the 2016 roster. This allows the pattern used in 2015 to be deployed again. Start the year with a competitive, deep and flexible team that can trade veterans or prospects for needed parts mid year. The difference next year and going forward however, is they will have less needs, more available funds, and more prospects closer to ML ready. They would enjoy the same luxury going into 2017, and it would appear 2018.
Most thought the Sox were going into 2014 with "enough" across the board, how did that work out?seantoo said:
If they add two pitchers better than the current cast and someone who stops 3B being a perennial black hole they'll be a favorite to win the division and probably one of the better clubs in baseball. The problems with 2014 are pretty obvious in hindsight (hell, they were pretty obvious in July).
1. OF production was a black hole of suck, ~90 wRC+ for the unit as a whole including the production from Betts and Cespedes post-deadline. Now they have Castillo, a full season of Betts lined up, Cespedes, Nava, and two good veteran bats who could at worst platoon well with Nava. One of the black holes from 2014, JBJ, is getting a chance to put it back together in AAA and is a nice shuttle OF if needed. Bryce Brentz looks like a good bet for a small side platoon guy with Nava at worst.
2. 3B has been a weakness for a few years now, finally in a market flush with 3B options. As long as they land one that is nothing but improvement.
3. Catcher - AJP wasn't a good defensive catcher and fell off the age cliff with his bat this past season. Vaz is an elite defender who projects as average or a little better offensively for the catcher position, Steamer has him at >.50 OPS better than what AJP gave the Sox last year.
4. Indecision at 3B moving Bogaerts around, not to mention Bogaerts' growing pains. He ended 2013 well, he started 2014 well, he ended 2014 well. He's a good bet to figure it out and see massive improvement over his 2014 aggregate.
5. Pedroia and Napoli finally having much needed surgeries for their comfort and health. Pedroia sounds like a man on a mission and specifically cited his hand injury as why he's lost power. Napoli apparently has been a borderline all-star without much sleep, so who knows what kind of animal he'll be fully rested (that's a joke, but he could definitely be more available than he was in 2014).
6. The farm is closer with the next wave of pitching and hitting prospects. Swihart is an excellent backstop at C. Shaw is a worthwhile 1B prospect who could do a far better job than the 2014 options should Napoli miss a bunch of time. Marrero is a nice insurance policy at SS, etc. etc.. Overall the organizational depth is far better than it was in 2014.
You add two good starters and a good 3B to the Sox as they stand right now and short of catastrophe I'd bet you would have a pretty competitive club. Shore up the bullpen with some veteran help, make a move for a centerpiece OF, etc. and they'll be even better off.
67WasBest said:
Overall I'm a fan of what you've outlined, but 3/$45 for LaRoche is crazy. The Nats just declined a $15M one year option on him and that included a $2M buyout, so he really only would have cost them $13M. If he had 3/$45M value they'd have had teams beating down their door looking to trade for him before that option was declined, at least one would imagine.
$15M, sure, but it would be on a one year deal and how well he plays would dictate if you extend a QO, effectively treating it as an option year as it would destroy his market value.
1. Sign Lester for whatever.
2. Sign Hanley or Panda.
3. Sign Tomas.
4. Trade Cespedes for Iwakuma. (maybe a prospect as well)
5. Trade Owens, Barnes, and a hitting prospect not named Betts/Bogaerts (still a prospect?)/Swihart for Hamels.
5. Sign one veteran BP.
SP - Lester, Hamels, Iwakuma, Buchholz, Kelly
RP - RDLR, Webster, Taz, Layne, Uehara, veteran lefty, Hembree
C - Vazquez
1b - Napoli
2b - Pedroia
3b - Panda/Hanley
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Betts
CF - Castillo
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
Bench - veteran C, Craig, Nava, Holt
Primary lineup:
LF Betts
RF Victorino
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
3b Panda/Hanley
1b Napoli
SS Bogaerts
CF Castillo
C Vazquez
Great defense up the middle. Incredible OF defense. Tremendous starting rotation. Very good bullpen. Outstanding, versatile bench. Still with tons of minor league depth and talent. Next guys to make the jump in 2016: Tomas, Swihart, Cecchini, Rodriguez, Johnson, Ranaudo, Shaw, etc.
That team is expensive (this offseason would be costly), but they'd lose Napoli and Victorino's contracts after 2015. And of course, Cespedes is gone too (replaced by Iwakuma's contract). That shaves off $39 million for 2016.
In 2016, you replace Napoli with Shaw, and Craig steps in full time for Victorino (not costing you payroll). Swihart comes up to the big club and is an instant offensive contributor.
2. Sign Hanley or Panda.
3. Sign Tomas.
4. Trade Cespedes for Iwakuma. (maybe a prospect as well)
5. Trade Owens, Barnes, and a hitting prospect not named Betts/Bogaerts (still a prospect?)/Swihart for Hamels.
5. Sign one veteran BP.
SP - Lester, Hamels, Iwakuma, Buchholz, Kelly
RP - RDLR, Webster, Taz, Layne, Uehara, veteran lefty, Hembree
C - Vazquez
1b - Napoli
2b - Pedroia
3b - Panda/Hanley
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Betts
CF - Castillo
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
Bench - veteran C, Craig, Nava, Holt
Primary lineup:
LF Betts
RF Victorino
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
3b Panda/Hanley
1b Napoli
SS Bogaerts
CF Castillo
C Vazquez
Great defense up the middle. Incredible OF defense. Tremendous starting rotation. Very good bullpen. Outstanding, versatile bench. Still with tons of minor league depth and talent. Next guys to make the jump in 2016: Tomas, Swihart, Cecchini, Rodriguez, Johnson, Ranaudo, Shaw, etc.
That team is expensive (this offseason would be costly), but they'd lose Napoli and Victorino's contracts after 2015. And of course, Cespedes is gone too (replaced by Iwakuma's contract). That shaves off $39 million for 2016.
In 2016, you replace Napoli with Shaw, and Craig steps in full time for Victorino (not costing you payroll). Swihart comes up to the big club and is an instant offensive contributor.
Among the young pitchers I don't think it's wrong to assume that at least one will be a mid rotation pitcher or even possibly more however to expect it as soon as next season might be to soon too. I don't think our young players underachieved last year I think expectations were to high by to many here. Development is not a linear path neither, I don't expect a switch to be flipped and they get, "IT". That is why I think expectations should be tempered until at least 2016. Let's see what happens this off-season if they make enough moves I can change my mind.OptimusPapi said:
Rasputin I agree with your thoughts alot but respectively disagree on this one. I agree it could (maybe even should) be competitive but no more. The 3,4 & 5 have way to be many questions to be as confident as you are. It's early, let's see what happens.Rasputin said:
ivanvamp said:
Not to pick nits here, but Craig and Victorino are so far apart in what they bring to the team that I have a hard time saying "they both play OF, one can replace the other" - that's not how roster construction works.
Also after last year we should all be aware of the "rookie can come up and be instant offensive contributor" line
Signing Lester, Sandoval, Tomas, and a BP piece, and trading for Hamels would add something like 85M+ to the 2015 payroll. I don't see that happening but hey I wouldn't complain.
I would do Iwakuma for Cespedes quick. If we could talk the Ms into somehow taking Craig off our hands all the better.
If we could bring back Lester and make the Iwakuma (or Latos/Leake) deal, I think the SP should be strong enough to win 90+ games. Lester, Iwakuma, Buchholz, Kelly and (the best of the many other internal candidates) stacks up fine against any other AL East rotation as well as the Royals or Angels, for example.
I would do Iwakuma for Cespedes quick. If we could talk the Ms into somehow taking Craig off our hands all the better.
If we could bring back Lester and make the Iwakuma (or Latos/Leake) deal, I think the SP should be strong enough to win 90+ games. Lester, Iwakuma, Buchholz, Kelly and (the best of the many other internal candidates) stacks up fine against any other AL East rotation as well as the Royals or Angels, for example.
Here is one deal I would do for Hamels
Red Sox send Cespedes Vazquez Barnes and Rijo
Phillies send Hamels and Carlos Ruiz
Ruiz is a place sitter until Swihart is ready. I doubt Amaro does this but anything is possible
Red Sox send Cespedes Vazquez Barnes and Rijo
Phillies send Hamels and Carlos Ruiz
Ruiz is a place sitter until Swihart is ready. I doubt Amaro does this but anything is possible
The idea of trading Vazquez (or Swihart) now hurts my head. If the world develops as anticipated, we are here a year or 2 from now conducting a very expensive auction for one of them.
Obviously moving one now increases the risk greatly that we don't have C locked up long term cheaply.
On the other hand, you are right, it is Cole Hamels.
Obviously moving one now increases the risk greatly that we don't have C locked up long term cheaply.
On the other hand, you are right, it is Cole Hamels.
I have always taken the approach that between Shaw and Craig they should be able to have a solid replacement for Napoli, and if Ortiz decides to hang it up after next season they need to add another big bat (or retain Napoli).ookami7m said:
The replacement options for the 3rd OF after 2015 (when both Cespedes and Vic will be FAs) are:
1. Jackie Bradley re-discovering how to hit and being a good all around starting OFer. This would move Betts to LF and likely Castillo to RF.
2. Nava + Brentz (and maybe Craig) in a platoon role. Castillo and Betts would likely stay in whatever home they earn this season (CF or RF).
3. Sign one of the free agent OFers (Cespedes, Heyward, Upton, etc.).
4. Trade for someone, as of yet unknown.
There are options out there to solve the OF concerns long term, no need to rush on that front. A valid transition from Ortiz/Napoli as the DH/1B power core? Sure, which is why I'd love to see a hard play for Tomas and Moncada (especially Moncada) this winter to stock up on as many viable options as possible.
Right, it's Cole Hamels, a guy making $22.5M a year who will make the Sox commit to his 5th year option in any trade (probably ask for the $24M vesting number instead of the $20M team option number in fact), has career interleague numbers that read like nightmare fuel, and is firmly in the middle of, not at the top of, his peer group who are current free agents or will be free agents following next season.KillerBs said:
Unless Amaro is willing to swallow his pride and take a deal that centers around two of the RH pitchers the Sox were breaking in last season I have very little interest engaging them for Hamels.
Would you give Francisco Liriano 5/$110M? No way, yet his production the last two years in a more competitive NL division has been comparable to Hamels. Hamels is basically worth his contract, and maybe not even that if you assume a 5th year at $24M is tacked on the back end. Why give a treasure trove of prospects for him when they could just pay more money for Lester or Scherzer, or significantly less money for Liriano, Shields, etc.?
Ten years ago the Sox were down 3/5 of their starting rotation, arguably the top three (despite Lowe's off year) and patched together enough to tie for the division lead. But that was a great hitting team coming off a World Series sweep; and to get all the way back, they had to trade their best prospect and another good one for an established pitcher and a bad contract.
If they plan to get back into contention and build for the future in the near term, they'll have to be willing to spend a lot of money (without dicking around) and probably give up real value - which on this roster means young talent pretty much.
If they plan to get back into contention and build for the future in the near term, they'll have to be willing to spend a lot of money (without dicking around) and probably give up real value - which on this roster means young talent pretty much.
Fireball Fred said:
Fred, you have your timeline mixed up. The Beckett/Lowell deal didn't happen until December 2005. The Sox got back to the playoffs in '05 after replacing Pedro, Lowe, and injured Schilling with David Wells, Matt Clement, and Wade Miller, all who were acquired via free agency. To go with Wakefield and Arroyo. So yeah...that really was a great hitting team.
To Drek, I am utterly unconvinced that you can buy a FA pitcher of Hamels ability for 5/114. I am not sure you are suggesting otherwise. Likewise, I don't know if you were serious in equating Liriano with Hamels. One of them throws 200 good to great IPs every year, the other has thrown 160 good innings in his 1/2 his ML seasons and melted down in the others.
Hamels is a good to very good pitcher on a good to very good contract. I am not in favor of sending a "treasure trove" of prospects for him in lieu of spending the extra 50M it would cost to buy his analogue, Jon Lester. But he does have significant value, and I would not rule out completely a deal for him centered around Vazquez.
Hamels is a good to very good pitcher on a good to very good contract. I am not in favor of sending a "treasure trove" of prospects for him in lieu of spending the extra 50M it would cost to buy his analogue, Jon Lester. But he does have significant value, and I would not rule out completely a deal for him centered around Vazquez.
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