Ive never understood the "promise" pick. Unless the player REALLY wants to go there, what benefit is there?
Like any other agreement there has to be a win-win advantage for BOTH team and player. In the case of Dunn it clearly was not advantageous to him but would certainly have been for New Orleans if he didn't work out for anyone else. You mostly see promises with the more volatile picks who have a wide range of where they will be drafted. Take a player like Thon Maker for example and say his draft range is 20-40 but the team at say 25 loves him and he's their guy. By offering a promise at 25 to shut down workouts so nobody else can get a first hand look to select him prior to 25 they gain an advantage (how much so is debatable) and if Maker accepts he takes that risk off the table of being drafted as low as 40.Ive never understood the "promise" pick. Unless the player REALLY wants to go there, what benefit is there?
They can, a promise is not enforceable, but agents will remember it next time the team tries to get a player to shut down his workouts.Why can't a team reneg on a promise? PR reasons? If you feel that bad... Trade a couple future seconds for the last pick in the draft and take him there
I think it would be horrendous to make this pick based on year one need---this time is not filling in a gap to win now, they are looking to add a star (really, two) to be a contender. You get that with BPA and filling in around through trades/acquisitions not through trying to fill a slot.I'm not enamoured of Brown either, but this is one of those rare years when a GM should be drafting not BPA but immediate club improvement. I see Brown as a viable Crowder backup in year 1, and possibly playing alongside Crowder as a 3/4 combo.
I doubt he'd ever say it, even if he thought it. Ainge's message discipline is usually quite strong.I think it would be horrendous to make this pick based on year one need---this time is not filling in a gap to win now, they are looking to add a star (really, two) to be a contender. You get that with BPA and filling in around through trades/acquisitions not through trying to fill a slot.
I'd be really upset (and shocked) if I heard Ainge say "we think he will help the most in 2016-17, even though he isn't the best player available"
That is true of any of the guys we're talking about...that is part of why it is very poor strategy to pick a guy with the goal of having him help next year. It simply isn't how NBA teams do, or should, think about the top of the draft.I doubt he'd ever say it, even if he thought it. Ainge's message discipline is usually quite strong.
I certainly don't want the Celtics to draft one of Murray-Dunn-Hield unless they have deals already sealed. None of them is a difference-maker at either guard spot, and rookie minutes will be hard to come by.
Don't you dare insult Kedrick Brown! That ankle injury his rookie season de-railed a HOF career.What could go wrong taking a guy named Brown with a lotto pick?
It is true of the guards, but Bender/Brown would get opportunities to deepen the front-court rotation, and if Olynyk/Crowder goes down, the understudy will get plenty of chances.That is true of any of the guys we're talking about...that is part of why it is very poor strategy to pick a guy with the goal of having him help next year. It simply isn't how NBA teams do, or should, think about the top of the draft.
The Celtics have something on the order of $60 mil in cap space---they hardly need to use this pick to extend the bench. And there's no chance they are going to.It is true of the guards, but Bender/Brown would get opportunities to deepen the front-court rotation, and if Olynyk/Crowder goes down, the understudy will get plenty of chances.
Let's hope that some other team bids high on Ainge's #3 auction. If there's serious competition for Dunn as the most NBA-ready point guard, the value of having #3 could be rising.
Last update is close to $53M. I'm assuming that means renouncing everyone. http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16292985/nba-salary-cap-now-projected-hit-94-millionThe Celtics have something on the order of $60 mil in cap space---they hardly need to use this pick to extend the bench. And there's no chance they are going to.
Who do you think asked Chad to put that rumor out there?If Chad Ford reporting that the Lakers could send Russell for a top six pick why hasn't Danny called and closed the dead already?
Jamal Murray projects very similarly to how D'Angelo Russell projected a year ago. Wouldn't you rather keep the pick and roll the dice on the guy who hasn't already had a disappointing rookie season and failed to endear himself to his teammates?If Chad Ford reporting that the Lakers could send Russell for a top six pick why hasn't Danny called and closed the dead already?
Russell's A/TO ratio was 1.72 as a freshman, while Murray's was .96. Obviously Murray was mainly playing off the ball, so it's hard to get a sense of how he would've fared as the primary distributor, but I don't really see him running point in the NBA based on what I've seen of him, though some smart basketball people disagree. If I thought Murray projected as nearly the floor general that Russell (still) does, I'd be much more bullish on him even with his terrible defense, because combined with his scoring ability, he'd be a helluva offensive weapon.Jamal Murray projects very similarly to how D'Angelo Russell projected a year ago. Wouldn't you rather keep the pick and roll the dice on the guy who hasn't already had a disappointing rookie season and failed to endear himself to his teammates?
Isn't Russell a PG and Murray most definitely not a PG?Jamal Murray projects very similarly to how D'Angelo Russell projected a year ago. Wouldn't you rather keep the pick and roll the dice on the guy who hasn't already had a disappointing rookie season and failed to endear himself to his teammates?
Murray didn't play PG at KY because of Ulis, but Murray ran the point for his Canadian national team and I think most believe that he can handle that role offensively in the pros. However, it's unlikely he'll be able to guard PGs in the pros.Isn't Russell a PG and Murray most definitely not a PG?
I don't disagree with this at all. He looks competent at that end of the floor but certainly not matched up against starting 1's which is why he has to be viewed as a 2/combo at this level. Having him paired in the backcourt with another 2 would seem to create a terrible lineup balance.Murray's defense is much better than he's given credit for here. Yes, the analytics don't like low blocks/steals numbers, but I saw enough of the kid to see he could defend. He played with good effort on D, played with a high basketball IQ and generally played fine on that end of the court.
I disagree entirely, I saw probably 12 or so UK games. Murray got toasted by non-NBA athletes on the first step in every one. Tim Quarterman looked like Kyrie playing against randos in the park when he got that match up. Murray is going to be an exceptionally poor NBA defender.Murray's defense is much better than he's given credit for here. Yes, the analytics don't like low blocks/steals numbers, but I saw enough of the kid to see he could defend. He played with good effort on D, played with a high basketball IQ and generally played fine on that end of the court.
understand where you are coming from but was Green's ceiling ever has high as Brown's? Green was a pretty developed jumior when he was taken and that draft wasn't great after 1-3.I would be pretty dissapointed with a Jaylen Brown pick at #3. I can't get past the Jeff Green comps with him.
Eh, I don't think that's a fair or accurate comparison. Green was more of a distributor in college and had/has an old man game (Uncle Jeff)I would be pretty dissapointed with a Jaylen Brown pick at #3. I can't get past the Jeff Green comps with him.
Kevin O'Connor described Brown as having a floor of Jae Crowder. Said if it were up to him he'd go with Brown or Bender at #3.I'm coming around on Brown the more I see of his tape and analysis from some draft people. He looks like he's going to be able to defend in the Stanley Johnson/D. Carrol/ Crowder mold. He also showed an ability to get his own shot and draw fouls. Now maybe he never develops a consistent shot or better offensive decision making, but if he doesn't he's still got a chance as a rotation defender. If he does that's a Jimmy Butler clone (even if he can't shoot 3s. If he could shoot 3s he's a true star) that potential is pretty rare in this draft, I'd much rather his upside and floor combo than anyone other than Bender (maybe Chriss, but his low floor scares me).
What are Brown's better measurables? He's two inches shorter than Green was at his pre-draft measurements (granted Green was two years older), Brown's wingspan is two inches less and Green had less body fat.Eh, I don't think that's a fair or accurate comparison. Green was more of a distributor in college and had/has an old man game (Uncle Jeff)
Brown is much more athletic, has better measurables and is more decisive off of the dribble.
I really like the athleticism of Brown, but I can't get over the fact that the team needs outside shooting desperately. Either Murray or Hield would be tough to pass up.Kevin O'Connor described Brown as having a floor of Jae Crowder. Said if it were up to him he'd go with Brown or Bender at #3.
Green led Georgetown in scoring and FGA in his final two seasons at Georgetown.....as a freshman he was a close second in scoring and 1.5 FGA/g from leading in that category as well. I would hardly call his game an old mans game as he's a highlight dunk waiting to happen in the open floor.Eh, I don't think that's a fair or accurate comparison. Green was more of a distributor in college and had/has an old man game (Uncle Jeff)
Brown is much more athletic, has better measurables and is more decisive off of the dribble.
The problem with those guys is that shooting is largely all they bring to the table (from what we've seen at least). Neither are terribly athletic, play defense, or facilitate for others (Murray may be able to but we did not see that last year). So at the end of the day what is their ceiling...particularly Hield? At #3 I think you have to swing for the fences and not take your current need into consideration. I'd be fine with Dunn, Brown, Bender and I guess Criss.I really like the athleticism of Brown, but I can't get over the fact that the team needs outside shooting desperately. Either Murray or Hield would be tough to pass up.
Can Brown dribble with both hands? Green's weakness off the dribble, despite his quickness, stride and reach, was that he could only go to his right.Eh, I don't think that's a fair or accurate comparison. Green was more of a distributor in college and had/has an old man game (Uncle Jeff)
Brown is much more athletic, has better measurables and is more decisive off of the dribble.
Hield's reported 40 inch vertical in his LA workout would indicate to me he has the athleticism to expand his game beyond pure shooting.The problem with those guys is that shooting is largely all they bring to the table (from what we've seen at least). Neither are terribly athletic, play defense, or facilitate for others (Murray may be able to but we did not see that last year). So at the end of the day what is their ceiling...particularly Hield? At #3 I think you have to swing for the fences and not take your current need into consideration. I'd be fine with Dunn, Brown, Bender and I guess Criss.
We literally dont know if Bender can do ANY of those things let alone all of them.What are Brown's better measurables? He's two inches shorter than Green was at his pre-draft measurements (granted Green was two years older), Brown's wingspan is two inches less and Green had less body fat.
With the orange flags surrounding Brown and the other potential picks, I still think Danny goes with the versatile 7-footer who can shoot, pass, run the floor and defend the pick and roll already at 18, even with Bender's other question marks, but I wouldn't be shocked if it's Brown.
His game doesn't utilize this ability though. Matt Connaughton had a 43" vertical last year which doesn't do a thing for a spot-up shooter who doesn't have an explosive first step.Hield's reported 40 inch vertical in his LA workout would indicate to me he has the athleticism to expand his game beyond pure shooting.
Well we know it as well as we know any of the other guys can do things. There's projection in all of this. The idea that Bender is some mystery is silly, he's been seen by evaluators since he was 15.We literally dont know if Bender can do ANY of those things let alone all of them.
Another datapoint on the stats side, in Pelton's WARP model he ranks Jaylen Brown as the 101st best prospect. Granted it has Zhou Qi and Bender as 1 and 2, but I agree with all the points you made and am hoping Brown isn't the pick.Put in simplistic terms: unless I'm missing someone, Brown would be the worst player from a NCAA stats POV taken with a top 3 pick since the one-and-done era. Taking him is really putting a lot of faith into the stats being wildly misleading. And maybe they are, but that's not something I want the Celtics to find out.
While I understand this complaint, it is worth noting that these same arguments caused Steph Curry to fall to the seventh pick. He was a shooter rather than a distributor, a bad defender, merely a good athlete rather than a great one, etc.The problem with those guys is that shooting is largely all they bring to the table (from what we've seen at least). Neither are terribly athletic, play defense, or facilitate for others (Murray may be able to but we did not see that last year). So at the end of the day what is their ceiling...particularly Hield? At #3 I think you have to swing for the fences and not take your current need into consideration. I'd be fine with Dunn, Brown, Bender and I guess Criss.
I usually try and avoid just quoting the "all-in-one" numbers for these purposes since they don't give much context (even though I think they're pretty good), but if you look at BPM, you'll see Kidd-Gilchrist's numbers are actually pretty strong in a lot of ways. His BPM was 9.1 compared to Brown's 3.1 (zero is average). BPM isn't perfect (no stat is obviously), but it's useful in that it's adjusted for strength of schedule. It's still box-score based of course, and playing on Kentucky vs. Cal is a world of difference of course. It's a credit to BPM I think that it recognized MKG was a good player in spite of only okay points/rebounds.Kidd-Gilchrist went #2 in 2012 and had similarly unimpressive stats (12/7/1 per game). Of course, I'm sure some of that was due to the loaded team he was on. Not a perfect comp but similar given their age, athletic ability, and size. I don't think I'd be excited about getting a MKG with this pick.
There's pretty much no chance either Brown is there in the 10-12 range.Using the #3 to pick the athletic but poor-stats Jaylen Brown seems comparable to paying $72.5M to an athletic but poor-stats Rusney Castillo.
On the other hand trading #16, 23 and miscellaneous to move up take Brown in the 10-12 range would be intriguing.
Can't argue with the Steph example but you are citing an "all time" great player/shooter. There are many, many great shooters that have topped out as solid rotational players or much less. Not saying that will be the case with Hield or Murray but that would be my fear if we take either of them.While I understand this complaint, it is worth noting that these same arguments caused Steph Curry to fall to the seventh pick. He was a shooter rather than a distributor, a bad defender, merely a good athlete rather than a great one, etc.