I heard the news last night and I was stunned for two reasons. First, that they got Kimbrel. Second, that they gave up Margot AND Guerra, PLUS two other pieces that may or may not amount to anything. But still, it seemed like Margot+Guerra could net them something even more than Kimbrel alone.
So after thinking about it for a while, here's my take. First, on what the Sox gave up. Margot is a very good prospect, with a good chance of being a solid major-leaguer. I don't think too many people question that. He has a very major-league skill set. But the Sox have JBJ, Betts, and, behind Margot, Benintendi, who probably projects as even better than Margot. This is clearly dealing from strength. Guerra has the potential to be terrific. They don't have many good SS in the system, but fortunately, they have one of the very best SS in all of baseball in Bogaerts, with four more years of team control. And Marrero may yet become a legit major leaguer. Still, giving up Guerra stings, IMO, worse than Margot. Nevertheless, I think you can live with giving Guerra up. As far as the other two guys go, I honestly don't know enough about them to make an educated opinion, but just from what I've been reading, I am not that worried that the Sox gave up any future all stars here. If it happens, it happens.
Now, what the Sox managed to get in return. I think some folks here are not fully appreciating what Craig Kimbrel is. He's an absolutely elite, uber-dominant relief pitcher, and a consistently great one at that.
Just to go over his numbers again:
2010 - 0.44 era, 914 era+, 1.53 fip, 1.21 whip, 17.4 k/9 (!!)
2011 - 2.10 era, 183 era+, 1.52 fip, 1.04 whip, 14.8 k/9
2012 - 1.01 era, 399 era+, 0.78 fip, 0.65 whip, 16.7 k/9
2013 - 1.21 era, 311 era+, 1.93 fip, 0.88 whip, 13.2 k/9
2014 - 1.61 era, 223 era+, 1.83 fip, 0.91 whip, 13.9 k/9
2015 - 2.58 era, 142 era+, 2.68 fip, 1.05 whip, 13.2 k/9
So we may look at the consistent rise in era from 2012 through 2015 and be concerned. But I don't think that's a worry. From 2012-2014, he was basically one of the greatest relief pitchers in the history of the sport. And he fell off to 2015 to just being merely really frigging good. Again, think: his worst year of his six-year career was a 2.58 era, a 1.05 whip, and a 13.2 k/9. His worst year.
What happened in 2015 to cause the dropoff? Compare 2014 with 2015:
k/9
- 2014: 13.9
- 2015: 13.2
bb/9
- 2014: 3.8
- 2015: 3.3
babip
- 2014: .243
- 2015: .276
ops against
- 2014: .430
- 2015: .569
strike %
- 2014: 64.9%
- 2015: 63.3%
contact %
- 2014: 63.1%
- 2015: 63.4%
Basically the difference came down to giving up 6 homers vs. 2 the year before. Take away those 4 homers (and, say, 6 runs scored because of them), and Kimbrel's era drops to 1.67, right in line with his normal numbers. Here is Kimbrel's fastball velocity chart.
He is throwing just as hard as he ever was. It's not like his velocity has dropped to 93-94. In fact, his average velocity in 2015 was better than in 2014 (2014: 97.0, 2015: 97.3). He's throwing hard, getting basically the same number of strikes, walking fewer guys, getting the same number of strikeouts, and allowing virtually the same contact rate. He's just seen a blip in his babip and his HR allowance, and there's really no reason to think that he'll see that continue, because it's not like the other numbers are dropping off a cliff.
In other words, there's no reason at all to think that he won't be a ridiculously awesome relief pitcher for the Red Sox.
One last way to think about this deal. Imagine if the Yankees made the trade. Let's say they already had a dynamic young outfield, with another stud prospect waiting in the wings, and were already locked up with a young stud SS with another one (like Marrero) in the system, and they traded those two plus two guys none of us here have ever heard of, who are many years away from the majors still, even if everything went right, for Kimbrel. We'd be none too happy about it here. The Sox should be able to develop more guys like the last two players in the deal. Guerra may be harder. Margot is someone I bet they can replicate sooner than another Guerra. But long story short, I've come around to being pretty excited about this deal.