Sox get Kimbrel

[patinorange]

If I'm San Diego I'm loving this deal.

The front office may be doing high fives. But the long time season ticket holder is wondering about another series of bridge year moves. Looks like another rebuilding year for the Padres.

Yes, I like a fireballer as a closer and assuming Koji is healthy, we should have a nice 7,8,9 sequence out of the bull pen. It seems pretty risky as trades go, but this is a shitty team on a two year slide. Some gambling is appropriate. Now, work on some starting pitching so he will have some games to close.

I

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I was thinking about this tonight. Obviously, they traded Rizzo in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. But, other than that, don't you have to go back to the Hanley deal to find a level of regret that actually met the performance of the prospect dealt? And, even at that, there's probably no title in 07 without the Hanley trade.

And this is the thing. How do you measure this trade from where we sit? I mean, assuming DD isn't completely rogue, presumably people within the organization have a view and information on Margot et al that nobody else has. Perhaps there is something in his make-up that suggests he may not pan out in the way that some outside analysts expect. Does this make the trade less of an overpay? What if the Padres shared the Sox concerns (or had others) and needed more to get the deal done? We simply don't have enough information to definitively call this an over- or underpay.

Also, you have to ask yourself as a fan - are you happy if the addition of Kimbrel is a big piece of another Sox WS over the next three seasons and yet all four become good MLB players? Or what if the Sox contend partially because of Kimbrel's presences but don't win and they all become studs? And so on...

Look, I get that its great to have a bevy of young players who project to be good MLB pieces. However, does anyone disagree that the ideal outcome for the Sox is to contend will while continuing to develop prospects to play for the club or to be used to acquire useful pieces? If DD ends up failing at both he deserves to be lambasted but I would suggest (and its just my .02) that we wait until we have a realized track record before killing his deals.

*put another way, if we know so much about GM'ing the Boston Red Sox, what are we doing here at the Gas 'N Sip posting messages on a Friday night?

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

I'm not crazy about the trade, but the fact is that the team went 29-23 after Uehara was injured last year, with 8 of those losses attributed to the bullpen (and another 4-5 due to starters left in too long). This would have been a playoff team if they had traded for Kimbrel at the deadline.

 

[chrisfont9]

I apologize for my poor word choice, I didn't mean to imply that you had hidden motives; merely that the statement itself is disingenuous. The stats you've painted so far are misleading for several reasons.
1) ERA+ is problematic because the relationship...r that.

3) Ignoring 2015 is ignoring the most recent data point, which is important data that should be included. The fact that he got off to a poor start is data that shouldn't be ignored just because it doesn't fit your hypothesis.

4) Miller has been a reliever for f...bove, such a statement obscures a proper interpretation of the data.

EDIT: Finally, let's assume that your comparison to Mariano is accurate; Kimbrel is an unusual commodity in that he's a low volatile dominant reliever that won't have a bad year. If this is how the market views him, then you'd only need to add one or two pieces (e.g. devin/marrero) to pick up a top-line starter. Furthermore, you wouldn't need to put together a package for yet another SP (unless you decide to outbid everyone for Price despite picking up 10 million in AAV).

First, we're cool, internet communication is rarely perfect. As I was riding home I was rethinking relying on any ERA-based stats, which are more useful for evaluating starters than a 60-inning-a-year guy. And as you say (I abbreviated it only for appearances) we're not talking about much difference in the way of actual runs. Still, 2015 was Miller's first season with a bWAR > 1, and at 2.2 WAR it's below Kimbrel's previous four seasons (2.4 - 3.3) prior to 2015. So by another metric Miller is consistently below Kimbrel, albeit not by much and maybe trending the other way. I'll stand by not reading too much into 2015 for Kimbrel; between BABIP and being dumped into the Padres cesspool at the last second, it's not hard to imagine things weren't exactly normal in his life, and even then, by June 1 he was dominating again.

Edit: Huh! I guess I needn't worry about abbreviating quotes anymore. OK then.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Remember the good old days when people were upset the Sox traded Casey Kelly?

I'd hate to have Anthony Rizzo right now...

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Concerns: seems like a bit of an overpay, and Kimbrel probably won't be that great coming from that park and that league to this park in this league. But he should still be soild and should improve us next year.

No more trades, please. Sign a good starting pitcher, maybe a depth guy or two, and we are a good team again and will be in the fight for the division and the playoffs next year. The 2016 Sox will be better now than we we would have been without Kimbrel.

Again, no more trades, please.

 

[FredCDobbs]

"Schill, what do you think of Bogaerts and Betts?"

"I love those kids!"

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'd hate to have Anthony Rizzo right now...

Of course it would be nice to have Rizzo now. I'm not sure you'd find a single person to dispute you on that. But moves can't be evaluated in isolation and the follow up abilities and opportunities need to be evaluated both in real time and in retrospect.

You can certainly say it would be nice to have Rizzo now.

You can also say it would be nice to still have Gonzalez.

You can also say it would suck to still be stuck with Crawford or have spent the last two years with Beckett. And both of those would be realities of we didn't have Gonzo to pay freight on the Punto trade.

It would have made sense to resign Beltre, but then we wouldn't have Swihart or JBJ. So which do you prefer?

Personally I was a proponent of resigning Beltre and trading Youk instead and making the Gonzo trade anyway. Also signing Holliday the year before Crawford. But it's all a butterfly effect, man and it's not as easy to cite one deal because there's a lot of moving parts.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

After sitting on this for a while - I've come around 100% to this deal.

1. The Red Sox have just acquired one of the top relievers in the game - the kind of guy (like Koji when he's on, or Rivera) that makes the game 8 innings long. If Koji regains his mojo, that now means the game ends in 7. This puts them in the same category as the Yankees and Royals. This means starters have a weight removed and middle guys aren't used as much.

2. The classic assessment: How would you feel if the Yankees gave up top prospects and landed Kimbrel? How pissed off would you be with a pen of Kimbrel/Miller/Betances? Why wouldn't you want a GFIN pen of Kimbrel/Uehara/Tazawa (or someone even better) and what would you sacrifice for that?

3. The prospects will be replaced by intelligent drafting and matriculation. 3 years from now, when/if Margot or Guerra are doing well in the majors (and Kimbrel's contract is up), the Red Sox will have a new crop of kids moving the line. Player development is not stopping with the trade of these guys.

The Red Sox just acquired the number 1 reliever on the market. Who gives a shit if they maybe gave up too much and maybe the trade will be uneven and maybe chips will fall poorly...it's a bold move that means every major league player on the team feels better today than they did yesterday...every single player on the roster knows the team is improved.

 

[MikeM]

I don't really have a problem with this deal in terms of it being an "overpay", which it's really not (imo) once past the completely unrealistic expectations that's been built up here on what a package headlined by Margot was going to net us. I mean if you want to be targeting sub-30yo studs while not wanting to include any MLB-ready talent...you gotta pay to play. The package we gave up here isn't even in the neighborhood of a quality cost controlled starter upgrade.

That said, i'm finding myself in the "wouldn't it of been better to save the prospects and just spend the cash a guy like O'Day?" camp. This just feels a few too many moves ahead of where we actually are as a team, and i'm just not sure securing the better player as opposed to what FA had to offer is worth the overall difference there. Although i guess that perception could change with some fairly substantial follow up moves.

 

[ZMart100]

I don't think one has to be overly optimistic about prospects to think this is not a good deal.

Kimbrel seems likely to be worth somewhere between 6-9 wins over the next 3 years. He is being payed for about 4 1/2 wins (both numbers assume his option is picked up).

Margot is about the 25th best prospect, which means he should be expected to produce about 7 1/2 wins in his first 7 seasons. Guerra is somewhere around 100, which is probably another 3-4 wins in expectation. Even if you don't think much of Allen and Asuaje as prospects, they should have positive value.

Even adjusting Kimbrel's value up for certainty and for the increasing value of additional wins per season, this trade does not seem like equal value. While there was no clear path for Margot or Guerra to fit on the current Boston roster, that doesn't mean that they needed to be traded now or in this deal.

 

[jose melendez]

I don't have terrible strong opinions on what we gave up, I'm just too removed from the minors right now living where I do, but is anyone else worried about the trend line on Kimbrell's career? His ERA+ has declined for four straight years, his FIP has gone up for four, as hasa his WHIP. Some of his peripherals don't have the same trend, but I do think there are questions about exactly how dominant a guy he will be.

 

[Drek717]

Jesus fuck, no they didn't. Your prospect humping is well noted here, but this is above and beyond even for you. There's plenty to grind your teeth about on this deal without getting hyperbolic about it.

Logan Allen is an 18 yo lottery ticket that pitched 24 innings at friggin Lowell. Carlos Asuaje is a 23 yo, mediocre defender at 2B that managed a .251/.334/.374 line at AA. Neither of these are worth shit. Allen maybe someday pans out. Asuaje isn't even up to your high water mark on Sean Coyle around this time last year.

You know what, I've generally chosen to let your selective re-imagining of what I've posted in the past slide because I didn't feel like it was worthwhile to delve into, but sure, if you're really this hung up on it lets actually go over what you think I said and what I actually said.

1. I never said Coyle and Workman (that was the duo FYI) get you Cueto. I made it quite clear they wouldn't. That Cueto likely would cost one of Owens or Rodriguez. Turns out he was traded for a three player packaged headlined by Brandon Finnegan, a LHP universally ranked below Owens the last few years.

2. Latos was traded for Chad Wallach, a 22 year old who hadn't gotten out of A ball at that time (he is now a 23 year old who still isn't out of A ball) and Anthony DeScalfini. Descalfini had a good year for Cincy, but prior to 2015 his career numbers and prospect rankings mirrored Brandon Workman's quite closely. Coyle was (and probably still is) more valuable than Wallach as Coyle at least has the potential for a ML worthy bat.

3. While on the subject of comparable prospects, lets consider the sentence who picked from the above quote. Benoit got the Padres Enyel De Los Santos, a hard throwing 19 year old who has 40 more innings of minor league action than Allen with worse results at the same levels, not to mention far less pedigree. The Red Sox spent an order of magnitude more money to sign Allen this past summer than the Mariners spent to sign De Los Santos in 2014. Then we have Nelson Ward who turned 23 a few months ago and hasn't made it above A ball. Asuaje hit significantly better as a A baller last year and hit decently well as a 23 year old in AA this year. He's what the Padres would hope Nelson Ward would be in 2016. The parallels between these four players are pretty spot on. One duo gets you Benoit, the other is the throw-in pieces for Kimbrel.

The reality is that all of these kids are long shots to actually be productive MLers, sure. I'm also sure Dombrowski's viewpoint is that he could, if desired, burn the farm to the ground for a 3 year window and have the farm rebuilt by the time that three year window is up. But the notion that there wasn't better value to be had for Guerra and Margot in particular is shocking in comparison to what every prospect expert has been saying for the last 12 months. It feels like the Sox throwing out a massive overpay for Kimbrel for marginally more value over far cheaper options, both for that marginal value and to get a deal done quickly.

But again, this is baseball, not a stand of redwoods. Farms grow back only slightly slower than the time it takes to cut them down. If Kimbrel is a key part of this club being relevant for the next 3 years the Sox will have drafted and developed the next Guerra and Margot well before anyone focused on the 25 man really even notices, and that is the real end goal here. They better not blink when it comes time to pay an SP though, or this will look like a pretty dubious highlight move for the 2015-2016 off-season.

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

By your logic, we should just trade every prospect for Kimbrel b/c no price is too much, right?

...

I hope this thread isn't turning into another idiot-fest featuring everyone's strawmen.
.

Separated by a single sentence. Impressive.


I am surprised that Ken Giles has not been mentioned. He's reportedly available, not arbitration eligible until 2018, and under team control until 2021. Not as good as Kimbrel of course (K/9's of 11.6 and 12.2), but still excellent and much cheaper.

Have to think that he wouldn't have cost as much prospect capital and would have similarly lengthened the pen. And would have left a lot more payroll flexibility for other moves.

 

[curly2]

I don't have terrible strong opinions on what we gave up, I'm just too removed from the minors right now living where I do, but is anyone else worried about the trend line on Kimbrell's career? His ERA+ has declined for four straight years, his FIP has gone up for four, as hasa his WHIP. Some of his peripherals don't have the same trend, but I do think there are questions about exactly how dominant a guy he will be.

Kimbrel struggled the first two months last year. Maybe it was due to the trade, which may have blindsided him. After all, how many guys get traded unexpectedly the day before Opening Day? The first two months skewed his stats. The last four months he was dominant.

 

[AlNipper49]

"Schill, what do you think of Bogaerts and Betts?"

"I love those kids!"

Both have proven themselves at the ML level.

How do these guys disprove that point?

 

[JBJ_HOF]

I am surprised that Ken Giles has not been mentioned. He's reportedly available, not arbitration eligible until 2018, and under team control until 2021. Not as good as Kimbrel of course (K/9's of 11.6 and 12.2), but still excellent and much cheaper.

Have to think that he wouldn't have cost as much prospect capital and would have similarly lengthened the pen. And would have left a lot more payroll flexibility for other moves.

No reason to think that. A lot of people thought Giles > Kimbrel > Chapman.

 

[Rasputin]

“@Sean_McAdam: Dombrowski said he began off-season with idea that bullpen help would be done by trade and starter signed among FA. Playing out that way.”

Huh, that's exactly what I said they should be doing. Imagine that.

 

[Rasputin]

The rhetoric at the beginning of this thread about how horrible this trade is should be kicked in the balls repeatedly until it can no longer speak or reproduce.

Craig Kimbrel is fairly unique. He has multiple seasons of being an outstanding reliever. He's relatively young, 27. He is under contract for three more seasons.

You could not ask for a better piece to address--or start to--the bullpen issues.

Margot and Guerra are a lot to give up. Margot was good insurance in case JBJ or Castillo blew up. Guerra looked like he was going to be a heck of a player, but he's not even seen Salem yet.

It's a lot to give up, maybe even more than necessary, but it's spending more to get the best.

Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Ross, Layne, Wright is a pretty good bullpen assuming the 7th guy doesn't suck. It's certainly a strength going into the season with the potential for someone like Barnes, Light, or a trade acquisition to join the team before the post season.

Now get us an ace and we'll be pretty close to ready to start the season.

 

[rotundlio]

I'm going to again try to voice my belief that relievers might return huge value someday. I am perhaps the world's most outspokenly strident opponent of the way bullpens are run, and watching Kimbrel play will be a little bittersweet.

I hate the closer. Hopefully I'm not the first or the only. Hopefully, the first guy was the second guy to ever hear of the idea. The entire concept is foolish and unnecessary. A two run lead in the ninth wins you 94% of games. Compare those episodes to: top seventh, one run contest, two men on and two away. A single pitch catalyzes a 48.12% tilt in win expectancy. It's a base hit off a middle relief mope.

We are, or were, always hoping to find that new and arcane market inefficiency. Nothing in baseball is less efficient than this stuff. "8th inning guy" is a role. Fredi González sat Kimbrel for an entire elimination game in hopes of, I think, procuring a save.

Daniel Bard pitched to a 1.93 ERA in 2010 and accumulated 1.3 WAR. It was fuckin' encouraging from a lanky kid out of UNC, and it gave rise to this gif. Let's just one time compare him to Mo. By these metrics he falls slightly short of the median Rivera season. Mo was better nine years straight apart from a lonely aberrant blip in '07. But by win probability added, Bard's season equates to Mo's sixth-best. Bard was a legend in 2010 just by pitching the turbulent 8th and not sealing up the 9th.

If we toss Kimbrel every late inning jam when it's close, he could conceivably be our major contributor in all three seasons. He was fifth in pitcher WPA from '11 to '14 in sparse innings by closer standards. (Has his UCL popped) It's important to note that, I don't have a source, but oh I remember, he was always one of the purest ninth inning three out closer types in the league.

What's really interesting about Kimbrel is his career strikeout rate, 41.2%. It's interesting for a few reasons. That's the second-highest grade ever. It also interests me how uniquely well suited it is for putting out fires, such as when a groundball to Pedey or a deep flyout could hurt us. If we're careful with him and he monopolizes leverage, this could be a hell of a get, something to pop bottles over.

No it won't happen.

I suppose Koji could, at long await, be that guy.... Fuck. I'd really love to have two. Come the playoffs, somebody transcendent ought to be operating in that capacity.

I like this. It's exactly how I build a bullpen in Out of the Park, straight down to unwittingly trading top prospects. 122-40, here we come.



Three additional points I would like to make from writing this:


The FanGraphs leaderboard for win probability added comprises mostly relievers

Lends credence to Billy Beane spending on RPs doesn't it

You wouldn't ever sit Pedro Game 6 in hopes that he'd win you Game 7

 

[jacklamabe65]

I still LOVE Joe Kelly's potential - and I'm whether he might compete with Taz for the seventh inning job. The more, the merrier.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Unbelievable. We wanted Cherrington replaced because he came out on the wrong side of so many deals. Dombrowski comes in and gets absolutely fleeced in his first deal, giving up piles of young talent for a bloody closer. It's enough to make you dread future trades by the GM with the $150.00 hair cut.

And A.J. Preller, a train wreck of a GM, is the one who fleeces Dombrowski. . . .

Dave Cameron nailed it:

To land Kimbrel, Dombrowksi parted with outfielder Manny Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, second baseman Carlos Asuaje, and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, which is a pretty remarkable group of prospects to acquire for any player, much less a relief pitcher. Back in August, not too terribly long before the Braves hired him away from us, Kiley McDaniel rated Margot as the #19 prospect in all of baseball, putting a 60 FV grade on him, which put him in the tier of guys that ran from #7 to #20. For context, he ranked Dansby Swanson, who just went #1 overall in this summer’s draft, at #24, with a 55 FV.

From my perspective, Margot for Kimbrel alone would have been a deal worth making for the Padres.

This is a very high price to pay for a reliever. Kimbrel’s awesome, and we may very well be selling elite relievers short on their overall value, but Kimbrel didn’t fix the Padres problems by himself, and the Red Sox will have more work to do this winter, and now have fewer chips with which to do it. For A.J. Preller, this is the kind of move that, if he can repeat a few more times, can undo a lot of the damage that was done last winter, and from my perspective, this marks his first big win as a GM.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/padres-get-a-haul-for-craig-kimbrel/

It is worth noting that Preller turned down the Yankees offer of Mateo for Kimbrel (at last year's trade deadline). He wanted more. He got more from the Red Sox.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I have mixed feelings on this deal. The prospect haul was huge, and those saying Margot isn't all that much of a prospect are wrong. He plays a major-league caliber CF right now, he's close to ready for the majors, he doesn't strike out much, and he's young enough to have a lot of room for projection. Guerra's bat is still in question (a lot of his home run power were down the line hits that reached a short porch in Greenville) but he's an elite defender and a very good prospect overall.

This steep price reflects the fact that the Sox just acquired the best or second best relief pitcher in the game. You don't often see the best or second best starter traded. I guess, ultimately, my reasons for skepticism with this deal are based on the belief that closers, as a class, are overrated and not used to the highest advantage.

All in all, I don't love it and don't hate it.

I guess I would feel better about it if the Sox were willing to go away from the standard bullpen model of "7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, closer". If Koji is healthy the Sox have 2 elite closers. I'd like to see the bullpen usage reflect that, rather than pigeonholing Koji as just an 8th inning guy. With some creativity, the could do stuff like:

• going to Kimbrel for key 8th inning outs (and leaving him in to finish the game), knowing that they can give him the next day off and use Koji if a closer is needed
• letting Kimbrel pitch in tie games on the road, ie, a high leverage situation in which most teams are stupidly willing to let their 4th bullpen arm piss the game away
• managing the workloads of both players with a focus on keeping both healthy and postseason-ready, minimizing back-to-back usage, lots of planned off days for both of them, etc

Of course, John Farrell is a "by the book" guy so we're going to see the stupid traditional usage until Koji's arm falls off in mid-August.

 

[moondog80]

Which means shit. Prospect rankings, whether they be organizational or across baseball are not linear as you move down. The point is that he has very little track record, does not have evaluations that blow you away and should not be causing anyone any more than consternation than trading away Engel Beltre did.

It's not just his age - if this was anderson Espinoza, you can be damn straight I'd be pitching a fit right now. If someone would like to pull up a scouting report that touts him as a major piece, I'm wiling to change my tune. Or if someone actually has seen him pitch, has some crews and wants to chime in, same thing. Meanwhile people are getting worked up over looking at box scores and stat lines from 20 innings in the GCL and 4 innings in Lowell. There has been literally thousands of such players that have turned into crap. Someone tell me why I should think this kid is different?

Does this count?

I don't think anyone is projecting him for stardom. But he clearly falls into the "nice piece" category, and the objection isn't so much losing him as much as the fact that people felt that just Margot and Guerra was too much, and anything else is just really overkill.

 

[Montana Fan]

It's not the 60 regular season innings you're paying for. Your paying for 15 innings over 3 series in the postseason tournament. See, Davis, Wade.

This is where I figure John Henry's mind is at. Not making the playoffs makes his annual investment in the Sox a lot less valuable. A few years ago I heard Boras making the case that postseason WAR is an added benefit that teams receive since the contracts signed are for the regular season. Add some postseason play and owner income to the equation and a top dollar player can deliver a lot of additional value to his regular season contract. Paying $22 million for a player to play through Sept is much different than paying him $22 million to play into late October. Henry is looking to maximize his return by playing late into the post season and IMO DD has an open wallet and a passel of prospects available for trade to make that happen. Trading very good minor leaguers for an elite ML player is part of the plan.

 

[Section15Box113]

if we know so much about GM'ing the Boston Red Sox, what are we doing here at the Gas 'N Sip posting messages on a Friday night?

Choice, DeJesus. Conscious choice.




(As for the rest of your comments, nice post.)

 

[smastroyin]

I'll be more clear. My struggle with this trade is that it is a very high price to pay. Even if you are a prospect skeptic, they have value around the league in other trades. So when you include a lot of them in one trade it is still a high price.

But that leads me to a couple of paths. First, closer is a luxury unless you change usages so all talk of "the whole bullpen is going to be better and I can cherry pick my way to this single player being worth 7 wins" is great but not necessarily realistic. Maybe if we got to replay the exact same games, it that's not how it works. So, to me, the closer improvement project should be for teams on the cusp of or in who had a bullpen problem. The Sox were not close to the cusp. As well, outside of Foulke I'm having some trouble remembering big name veteran closer acquisitions that have really made a difference to the acquiring team, but I may not be remembering well.

Second, if this is your first move you are almost locked into making moves to close the rest of the gap, however smart they may be.

The second point I think is where this thread tends to diverge. A lot of people want to see a 95 win team next year, a lot of people hate talk of strength of farm system when the major league team is losing 3 of 5 games. Perfectly reasonable. But, the attitude that anything that helps the former only at the cost of the latter is good is a bit more tricky.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

I don't think one has to be overly optimistic about prospects to think this is not a good deal.

Kimbrel seems likely to be worth somewhere between 6-9 wins over the next 3 years. He is being payed for about 4 1/2 wins (both numbers assume his option is picked up).

Margot is about the 25th best prospect, which means he should be expected to produce about 7 1/2 wins in his first 7 seasons. Guerra is somewhere around 100, which is probably another 3-4 wins in expectation. Even if you don't think much of Allen and Asuaje as prospects, they should have positive value.

Even adjusting Kimbrel's value up for certainty and for the increasing value of additional wins per season, this trade does not seem like equal value. While there was no clear path for Margot or Guerra to fit on the current Boston roster, that doesn't mean that they needed to be traded now or in this deal.

It doesn't really strike me as reasonable to assume any kind of positive MLB production from a player that's yet to reach AAA, let alone from someone as young as Guerra, on top of this post ignoring any and all of the raw circumstances behind the trade (Boston's position to potentially win, weak bullpen and lack of internal options, the prospects in question being blocked, our lack of knowledge about the demands of the market, etc.)

 

[joe dokes]

The rhetoric at the beginning of this thread about how horrible this trade is should be kicked in the balls repeatedly until it can no longer speak or reproduce.
Craig Kimbrel is fairly unique. He has multiple seasons of being an outstanding reliever. He's relatively young, 27. He is under contract for three more seasons.
You could not ask for a better piece to address--or start to--the bullpen issues.
Margot and Guerra are a lot to give up. Margot was good insurance in case JBJ or Castillo blew up. Guerra looked like he was going to be a heck of a player, but he's not even seen Salem yet.

It's a lot to give up, maybe even more than necessary, but it's spending more to get the best.
Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Ross, Layne, Wright is a pretty good bullpen assuming the 7th guy doesn't suck. It's certainly a strength going into the season with the potential for someone like Barnes, Light, or a trade acquisition to join the team before the post season.
Now get us an ace and we'll be pretty close to ready to start the season.

Sign me up.

The certainty over the MLB success of the players who have never been beyond AA is pretty surprising to me. But prospects have "ratings," so I get it. But the "oh my God, based on this trade I think DD is going to trade Betts and Bogaerts for [insert bad player here]" talk is pretty lame.

I dont think this is a typical last place team signing a closer situation. Whether the tail end of the season was some sort of mirage remains to be seen, but as someone upthread pointed out, the team was a reliable bullpen away from being in a playoff race.

Maybe they overpaid in some abstract sense. But they had a gaping hole and they could afford the cost. The likelihood is that all 4 traded players wont pan out. And if Kimbrel helps the team to 3 years of pennant contention then its still not a bad deal.


I'

ll be more clear. My struggle with this trade is that it is a very high price to pay. Even if you are a prospect skeptic, they have value around the league in other trades. So when you include a lot of them in one trade it is still a high price.

Even if we agree that Margot is valued highly by everyone everywhere, are the others? And in what combination with other players that would be more upsetting to trade? ("we'll take Guerra, but only if you throw in Benintendi")

 

[BaseballJones]

I heard the news last night and I was stunned for two reasons. First, that they got Kimbrel. Second, that they gave up Margot AND Guerra, PLUS two other pieces that may or may not amount to anything. But still, it seemed like Margot+Guerra could net them something even more than Kimbrel alone.

So after thinking about it for a while, here's my take. First, on what the Sox gave up. Margot is a very good prospect, with a good chance of being a solid major-leaguer. I don't think too many people question that. He has a very major-league skill set. But the Sox have JBJ, Betts, and, behind Margot, Benintendi, who probably projects as even better than Margot. This is clearly dealing from strength. Guerra has the potential to be terrific. They don't have many good SS in the system, but fortunately, they have one of the very best SS in all of baseball in Bogaerts, with four more years of team control. And Marrero may yet become a legit major leaguer. Still, giving up Guerra stings, IMO, worse than Margot. Nevertheless, I think you can live with giving Guerra up. As far as the other two guys go, I honestly don't know enough about them to make an educated opinion, but just from what I've been reading, I am not that worried that the Sox gave up any future all stars here. If it happens, it happens.

Now, what the Sox managed to get in return. I think some folks here are not fully appreciating what Craig Kimbrel is. He's an absolutely elite, uber-dominant relief pitcher, and a consistently great one at that.

Just to go over his numbers again:

2010 - 0.44 era, 914 era+, 1.53 fip, 1.21 whip, 17.4 k/9 (!!)
2011 - 2.10 era, 183 era+, 1.52 fip, 1.04 whip, 14.8 k/9
2012 - 1.01 era, 399 era+, 0.78 fip, 0.65 whip, 16.7 k/9
2013 - 1.21 era, 311 era+, 1.93 fip, 0.88 whip, 13.2 k/9
2014 - 1.61 era, 223 era+, 1.83 fip, 0.91 whip, 13.9 k/9
2015 - 2.58 era, 142 era+, 2.68 fip, 1.05 whip, 13.2 k/9

So we may look at the consistent rise in era from 2012 through 2015 and be concerned. But I don't think that's a worry. From 2012-2014, he was basically one of the greatest relief pitchers in the history of the sport. And he fell off to 2015 to just being merely really frigging good. Again, think: his worst year of his six-year career was a 2.58 era, a 1.05 whip, and a 13.2 k/9. His worst year.

What happened in 2015 to cause the dropoff? Compare 2014 with 2015:

k/9
- 2014: 13.9
- 2015: 13.2

bb/9
- 2014: 3.8
- 2015: 3.3

babip
- 2014: .243
- 2015: .276

ops against
- 2014: .430
- 2015: .569

strike %
- 2014: 64.9%
- 2015: 63.3%

contact %
- 2014: 63.1%
- 2015: 63.4%

Basically the difference came down to giving up 6 homers vs. 2 the year before. Take away those 4 homers (and, say, 6 runs scored because of them), and Kimbrel's era drops to 1.67, right in line with his normal numbers. Here is Kimbrel's fastball velocity chart.

He is throwing just as hard as he ever was. It's not like his velocity has dropped to 93-94. In fact, his average velocity in 2015 was better than in 2014 (2014: 97.0, 2015: 97.3). He's throwing hard, getting basically the same number of strikes, walking fewer guys, getting the same number of strikeouts, and allowing virtually the same contact rate. He's just seen a blip in his babip and his HR allowance, and there's really no reason to think that he'll see that continue, because it's not like the other numbers are dropping off a cliff.

In other words, there's no reason at all to think that he won't be a ridiculously awesome relief pitcher for the Red Sox.

One last way to think about this deal. Imagine if the Yankees made the trade. Let's say they already had a dynamic young outfield, with another stud prospect waiting in the wings, and were already locked up with a young stud SS with another one (like Marrero) in the system, and they traded those two plus two guys none of us here have ever heard of, who are many years away from the majors still, even if everything went right, for Kimbrel. We'd be none too happy about it here. The Sox should be able to develop more guys like the last two players in the deal. Guerra may be harder. Margot is someone I bet they can replicate sooner than another Guerra. But long story short, I've come around to being pretty excited about this deal.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Second, if this is your first move you are almost locked into making moves to close the rest of the gap, however smart they may be.

I think this is true. They must be looking at a big free agent starter acquisition now.

 

[In my lifetime]

I don't think one has to be overly optimistic about prospects to think this is not a good deal.

Kimbrel seems likely to be worth somewhere between 6-9 wins over the next 3 years. He is being payed for about 4 1/2 wins (both numbers assume his option is picked up).

Margot is about the 25th best prospect, which means he should be expected to produce about 7 1/2 wins in his first 7 seasons. Guerra is somewhere around 100, which is probably another 3-4 wins in expectation. Even if you don't think much of Allen and Asuaje as prospects, they should have positive value.

Even adjusting Kimbrel's value up for certainty and for the increasing value of additional wins per season, this trade does not seem like equal value. While there was no clear path for Margot or Guerra to fit on the current Boston roster, that doesn't mean that they needed to be traded now or in this deal.

The problem with this rationale is that wins in the next 3 years are worth a lot more than the same number of wins 3-10 years down the road and two 1 WAR players are also not equal one 2 WAR player (you only have 25 spots on roster). Of course, including the greater salary cost of Kimbrel must also be included in the evaluation. Overall, it seems like a trade that at this point may work out well for both teams making the RS with the addition of Price/Cueto/other ace one of the WS favorites for the next 3 years, while restocking the Padres farm and probably helping their major league 2+ years down the road.

The RS needed to land two things without fail this off season --- a top flight reliever (going into the season with a 41 year old as your best option to close games is likely to be a problem) and an ace. They have accomplished one of the two and the young core of X, Betts, Swihart, Moncada, etc. remains for the most part intact. Now on to sign an ace, blow through the lux tax, teach HRam to play 1B and compete for a WS. I will be a lot happier with that than I was this past year.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Wow, that's a ton for Kimbrel. He's a very good reliever but he's just a reliever. Looks like Ben Cherington all over again...

The rhetoric at the beginning of this thread about how horrible this trade is should be kicked in the balls repeatedly until it can no longer speak or reproduce.

Craig Kimbrel is fairly unique. He has multiple seasons of being an outstanding reliever. He's relatively young, 27. He is under contract for three more seasons.

You could not ask for a better piece to address--or start to--the bullpen issues.

Margot and Guerra are a lot to give up. Margot was good insurance in case JBJ or Castillo blew up. Guerra looked like he was going to be a heck of a player, but he's not even seen Salem yet.

It's a lot to give up, maybe even more than necessary, but it's spending more to get the best.

Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Ross, Layne, Wright is a pretty good bullpen assuming the 7th guy doesn't suck. It's certainly a strength going into the season with the potential for someone like Barnes, Light, or a trade acquisition to join the team before the post season.

Now get us an ace and we'll be pretty close to ready to start the season.

Thank you. + 1. Ownership clearly feels pressure to become a relevant contender again sooner than later. And they should. Back to back last place finishes are just intolerable in this market, with their resources. Did DD overpay to some extant for Kimbrel? No doubt. That's a reality of digging out of the mess of the last 2 years. And while I suspect DD's talk of acquiring starting pitching via free agency only is likely posturing to some degree, if when the dust settles he has rebuilt and substantially improved our pen, and added a top of the rotation starter, without giving up Bogarts, Betts, Swihart, Castillio, Bradley, Vasquez, Owens, Moncada, or Benintendi, he will have had a very good offseason.

 

[Y Kant Jody Reed]

It doesn't really strike me as reasonable to assume any kind of positive MLB production from a player that's yet to reach AAA, let alone from someone as young as Guerra, on top of this post ignoring any and all of the raw circumstances behind the trade (Boston's position to potentially win, weak bullpen and lack of internal options, the prospects in question being blocked, our lack of knowledge about the demands of the market, etc.)

One data point: at the trade deadline, the Reds were supposedly asking the DBacks for RHP Braden Shipley (in spring training, 20-30 range on Law and BA's lists) plus two more prospects for Aroldis Chapman. (Source: http://arizonasports.com/story/311178/report-arizona-diamondbacks-talks-with-reds-for-aroldis-chapman-completely-dead/).

Chapman turns 28 three months before Kimbrel does next year, and is due a likely $12 millionish arb award for 2016 in his final year of club control.

 

[billy ashley]

Andersen, Slocumb, ... Kimbrel?

Allen is the kicker for me. The other 3 were never going to play in Boston, and if this is the market I'm OK with this and just flushing, er spending a huge pile of extra $ to get a SP (Price) rather than trying to trade for an ace. But I don't want to add promising pitching prospects to the pile; the Sox will need those down the line.

My guess is that while big contracts for SPers don't make great business sense for your team finances, they make better sense when your overall business includes your own RSN with tanking ratings.

I too have reservations about the deal, however Logan Allen isn't a bad piece to give up at all.

Allen is a very polished left handed pitcher who will probably travel quickly though the minors. However, the prevailing thought is that he's also a guy who doesn't have that great of stuff. While he's super age advanced, there isn't too much projection to him. Soxprospects has ranked him right along with Trey Ball, who's basically the opposite (raw high school draftee with plus athleticism and some fleeting hope for projection).

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

That article has a link to a really good article about reliever value from Sullivan:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-reliever/

That article is excellent. People really undervalue the late inning swing and miss arm (see: Klaw)

Kimbrel was a great acquisition. Personally, I don't think anyone got fleeced here. Adding Guerra hurt, but he's a low A ball SS that broke out this year. Certainly he would have been fun to watch develop over the next couple years and dream on, but Kimbrel can be a key cog in getting a ring.

Also, I've thought Margot has been overrated for a bit. I know he was only 21, and he's got a great chance to be a good player, just don't love him like scouts everywhere seem to (which means I'm almost certainly wrong)

 

[smastroyin]

Even if we agree that Margot is valued highly by everyone everywhere, are the others? And in what combination with other players that would be more upsetting to trade? ("we'll take Guerra, but only if you throw in Benintendi")

We don't know. But it's two days after the GM meetings. Do we think that player values are settled this quickly?

Look, it's clear DD has marching orders that involve making sure the 12-15 wins this team needs to start selling out Fenway again come to fruition quickly. People can point at kimbrels contract and say the trade is not GFIN but given the guy is a closer it pretty much is a GFIN.

With that in mind, it is reasonable for him to jump based on what he found at the winter meetings. But I can still personally not like the strategy.

 

[johnnywayback]

I still don't like the trade. Not because we gave up a lot, and not even because we gave up more than we got, but because we gave up more than we got for a relief pitcher. It's easy to point to the Royals to argue that relievers are worthwhile investments, but the Royals got their bullpen by developing young arms (and converting Davis), not by paying over market value for veterans.

That said, in an effort to not already be turned off by our new decision-making overlords, I'm trying to come up with a rationale that I can live with.

1. Margot and Guerra represented well-regarded and entirely expendable chips -- valuable assets for sure (which is why I'm sad they were traded for a closer), but I'm fine starting from the assumption that they needed to be cashed in for a major-leaguer.

2. If we'd traded the same package for a starter -- not Sale or Harvey, obviously, but one of the Cleveland guys or Jose Quintana or some other up-and-comer we hadn't talked about -- I'd be fine. It would still have been an overpay in terms of value, but an overpay for something we needed.

3. But maybe the Indians and White Sox and whoever else were down on Guerra -- thought his offensive improvement was a mirage and he'd never be able to hit his way into an everyday lineup. We had no obvious expendable second piece at or above Guerra's level. And Margot alone wouldn't have been enough, meaning we'd be dipping into our non-expendable chips (like Devers).

4. And maybe the Red Sox are, internally, of the same mind, and concerned that Guerra won't be on NEXT year's Top 50 lists. And that Margot's value has peaked, as well. If their evaluations suggested that Guerra was about to go Cecchini on us and that Margot was never going to be more valuable than he is now, then I can understand feeling like they had to cash those chips immediately.

5. And if there wasn't a trade to be made for what we really needed, at least this was the best player available at a position where we could stand to upgrade.

None of which makes me feel better about Allen being the lottery ticket third piece, but I suppose that's where I can plead guilty to misdemeanor prospect humping.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

Sure, it seems like they gave up a lot, but what were the alternatives? I'm surprised that they had to give up both Margot and Guerra, and that even that wasn't enough. Margot is a nice player (I'm thinking like Michael Taylor of the Nats), but I think Benintendi may have passed him in the Sox eyes, and certainly made him expendable, Guerra is still far enough away that hard to say he'll ever be more than Marerro is now.

But what else could DD have done? I think everyone would be even more upset if we had sent any of these guys (or even better ones) for one year of Chapman. And while O'Day is a solid set-up guy, he's not in the same category as Kimbral. And I get the feeling that DD saw the market demand for O'Day and recognized that he had no guarantee of getting him, even at an inflated price. So Kimbral was the surest and safest option to strengthen the pen, which surely needed it.

So while the acquisition cost was mildly painful, there was no one in the deal that really made me wince. And I'm psyched to have Kimbral, as this should give us a real lock-down pen.

 

[BaseballJones]

What does Kimbrel do for the Sox' bullpen? It improves it dramatically. It moves Koji to the 8th, and Taz to the 7th, and allows their lefties to play the L/R matchup game a little more. It adds one of the best power bullpen arms in all of baseball. Our 9th just got better. Our 8th just got better. And our 7th just got better.

2014 --> 2015
7th inning: Ogando --> Taz
8th inning: Taz --> Koji
9th inning: Koji --> Kimbrel

I guess you could argue that Kimbrel isn't an upgrade over Koji, but over the last 6 years, here are the relative numbers:

Koji: 2.08 era, 202 era+, 2.48 fip, 0.77 whip, 11.4 k/9 (incredible numbers, really)
Kimbrel: 1.63 era, 233 era+, 1.72 fip, 0.93 whip, 14.5 k/9 (even more incredible numbers)

So with this one move, the Sox have improved three innings' worth of pitching. It's not just adding one quality arm. It's the effect all through the bullpen. The Sox now should be able to shorten games to the point where if they have a lead after 6, the ballgame is almost certainly over. They may lose a few in this situation, but their winning percentage in such situations should be much higher than average, because of the quality of arms they can now throw out there in the 7th, 8th, and 9th. Last year they were piecing together the 7th, Taz got burned out because he was the only guy they trusted after Koji went down, and Koji...well...he went down. The back end of the bullpen just got a heck of a lot better.

There is no question that, while the Sox gave up a good haul, Kimbrel makes the 2016 Red Sox much, much better.

 

[Plympton91]

No pick if they sign Price.

Or Cueto

 

[Plympton91]

What does Kimbrel do for the Sox' bullpen? It improves it dramatically. It moves Koji to the 8th, and Taz to the 7th, and allows their lefties to play the L/R matchup game a little more. It adds one of the best power bullpen arms in all of baseball. Our 9th just got better. Our 8th just got better. And our 7th just got better.

2014 --> 2015
7th inning: Ogando --> Taz
8th inning: Taz --> Koji
9th inning: Koji --> Kimbrel

I guess you could argue that Kimbrel isn't an upgrade over Koji, but over the last 6 years, here are the relative numbers:

Koji: 2.08 era, 202 era+, 2.48 fip, 0.77 whip, 11.4 k/9 (incredible numbers, really)
Kimbrel: 1.63 era, 233 era+, 1.72 fip, 0.93 whip, 14.5 k/9 (even more incredible numbers)

So with this one move, the Sox have improved three innings' worth of pitching. It's not just adding one quality arm. It's the effect all through the bullpen. The Sox now should be able to shorten games to the point where if they have a lead after 6, the ballgame is almost certainly over. They may lose a few in this situation, but their winning percentage in such situations should be much higher than average, because of the quality of arms they can now throw out there in the 7th, 8th, and 9th. Last year they were piecing together the 7th, Taz got burned out because he was the only guy they trusted after Koji went down, and Koji...well...he went down. The back end of the bullpen just got a heck of a lot better.

There is no question that, while the Sox gave up a good haul, Kimbrel makes the 2016 Red Sox much, much better.

Exactly, you didn't replace Koji with Kimbrel, you replaced Hembree or Barnes with Kimbrel.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

When the Royals won the title, the cost of elite power arms in the bullpen went up. Overall i'm happy with this trade. The Sox now have what they need to set up the last three slots in the pen. With the arms they have in the pen, and and a little more depth, the pen will be a strength instead of a reason for viewers to turn off the TV.
It should also take some pressure off of the start knowing that if they had a lead they had to rely on someone like Breslow to come in and bail them out of trouble.
I'm just glad it was prospects not named Benintendi.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Exactly, you didn't replace Koji with Kimbrel, you replaced Hembree or Barnes with Kimbrel.

On top of moving Layne into the LOOGY role he's suited for, gaining much needed insurance for a potential Koji breakdown be it from age or injury, and removing the over reliance on Tazawa. That's a big trickle down effect.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

There is no question that, while the Sox gave up a good haul, Kimbrel makes the 2016 Red Sox much, much better.

And the 2017 Red Sox, and the 2018 Red Sox. The 2016 Red Sox closer is old and will be a free agent, probably a retired free agent, after 2016. Even if you consider Tazawa the heir apparent, and I do not, he is a free agent after 2016, as well. And, to boot, there is no one in the organization right now that you can even squint at and see being a championship-caliber closer as soon as 2017. So, DD fixed a weakness for 2016 but he also addressed an organizational weakness over the next three seasons. Kimbrel had a weird season in San Diego, but it was really two bad months; by June has was back to his old tricks. After the ASB, he put up this stat line:

1.73 ERA, 0.73 WHIP
39 Ks in 26 IP
.120 BAA

Sweet.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I'd still like to see this team add one more quality bullpen arm; O'Day, Sipp, or whoever.

Koji is coming off his injury, and is old - and Tazawa had a horrible final two months after being overworked for the past two seasons. Would like to see someone else who can give both of them extra rest when needed, without being a liability/disaster. Further, and while it's not pressing at the moment, both Koji and Taz are probably gone after 2016.

As for the trade itself, it feels like a piece too many, but maybe I'm overvaluing Guerra, who was the tipping point between "oh, nice, we got Kimbrel" and "wait, we're giving up Guerra too and not getting anyone else back, DAMMIT..."

I feel a lot better about this trade this morning than I did when the news was unfolding though. My biggest disappointment is the trade involved the moving of the names "Allen" and "Craig", but not "Allen Craig".

 

[OCD SS]

I too have reservations about the deal, however Logan Allen isn't a bad piece to give up at all.

He's not a bad piece, it's that within the total scope of the deal he's the one that I see as having the most utility to the Red Sox in the future. Since the consensus is that this is an overpay, he's the one I would have thought that the Sox could keep without collapsing the trade.

Thinking about this some more, I think this points to how DD approaches things, and how the market might be headed: DD dove into the FA market and signed Victor Martinez to what (at the time) looked like a big overpay. Of course it turned out when the dust settled after spending exploded that that contract was pretty reasonable. DD going after the player he wants early and landing him is a bit of a welcome change after the machinations of Theo & Ben; if a large part of your FA plan depends on sorting out a trade, then you're probably going to have to meet a steep asking price to settle it early.

 

[GlucoDoc]

I like the trade.

I have been following the Sox for about 50 years, and recall many players with great promise that go bust. Even some that get to the majors and implode (Ref: Billy Rohr). We fixed a big problem. We gave up good prospects who were blocked or redundant and have not parted with the most valued younger players. And as was pointed out by someone earlier, with the stronger bullpen configuration, make the Sox more attractive to a top starter free agent signing. We are not the typical two-time last place finishing team - we just need some significant tweaks to contend (no guarantee for WS victory, but contend) and that is what this is. The first one of what I hope is a couple.

 

[irinmike]

Same crap I read after almost any trade the Red Sox make. The same rhetoric. "The Sox gave up to much". "The front office got fleeced on this one". "The Sox should have gotten much more for those players". EVERYONE complained about the pathetic bullpen we trotted out night after night last year. How soon would ANY of the four minor league players traded for Kimbrel, be on the Sox major league roster? You know the answer, not in the foreseeable future. So maybe these four future "super stars" who were traded, could have brought a different return, player and position wise to the Sox. But the fact remains, this organization has finished in the cellar of the eastern division for TWO years. The bullpen needed to be retooled NOW. I am sure many on here will be up in arms when the next trade involving retooling the bullpen is announced. I for one will welcome any addition that makes the Sox stronger and possibly contenders NOW, rather than waiting on the potential of a few minor league players.

 

[mloyko54]

Dave Dombrowski didn't take the Red Sox job to sit back and improve the Red Sox prospect standing on Baseball America, this is what he does, and his track record is pretty good.

In my opinion the Sox sold pretty high on Guerra coming off a breakout offensive season. And while I like Margot, I think he's going to struggle for awhile against MLB type pitching. Going into the off-season I had a list of 5 prospects I really didn't want to move: Espinoza, Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, and Kopech. If Dombrowki gets us one of the best closers in the game along with the Ace via FA (like he basically said he was going to do last night) then I'm good to go.

We don't think of them as prospects anymore because they played some at the big league level but we held on to Swihart, Owens, Johnson, Barnes, and JBJ so if we want to make another deal there is plenty of ammo.

I don't mind DD being aggressive and giving up something of value because there are plenty of times during Ben's tenure and Theo's as well where he held on to prospects too long and lost all their trade value; Lars Anderson, Garin Cecchini, etc.)