I feel like this undersells Brian Bannister's contribution to his late career turnaround. He's widely credited with helping Hill reconfigure himself into a starting pitcher. They had an inside seat as to why he would have been a worthwhile gamble.
Red Sox acquire Drew Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza
- Thread starter johnnywayback
- Start date
Would you? Because someone just told you - in the post you quoted - that he's maintained a below-average BABIP for the past 2 1/2 seasons.
This is where I respectfully disagree. I think they did have a dearth in '16 (said so a long time ago, not solely on hindsight). I would have rather had Kelly and Hill vs just Kelly.
I most certainly am not. I said I would have put Kelly in the pen - they have Kelly under contract and have that option. Allows you to bring on SP depth.
There's poker tournament theory where sometimes you take a bad bet to avoid being forced to take a worse bet later, that's how I feel about this trade emotionally. Its an overpay, but Pomeranz is good and I feared something way dumber involving Moncada or Benintendi for Teheran coming down the pipe if the team was in contention but the pitching kept faltering.
Hate to give up the most likely top end guy in the system, but this at least has a chance of the Sox coming out on top or losing in a "well Beckett and Lowell did contribute to a ring" manner. Pomeranz will be a good pitcher here.
Hate to give up the most likely top end guy in the system, but this at least has a chance of the Sox coming out on top or losing in a "well Beckett and Lowell did contribute to a ring" manner. Pomeranz will be a good pitcher here.
“@brianmacp: Dombrowski said he’d been talking to San Diego for ”a couple, three weeks,“ and there were only ”a couple of pitchers“ available elsewhere.”
“@TimBritton: Dombrowski: There were only a couple pitchers we thought would have a chance to be available that could substantially upgrade our rotation.”
“@RyanHannable: Dombrowski on conference call noting how few starting pitchers were going to be available at deadline. Deal came together Tues-Wed.”
“@ScottLauber: Dombrowski said #RedSox identified only a few pitchers, including Pomeranz, who would ”substantially upgrade“ rotation.”
“@brianmacp: Dombrowski said that he was being asked for the same return price (i.e. Espinoza-tier prospects) for rentals as for controllable starters.”
“@TimBritton: Dombrowski: There were only a couple pitchers we thought would have a chance to be available that could substantially upgrade our rotation.”
“@RyanHannable: Dombrowski on conference call noting how few starting pitchers were going to be available at deadline. Deal came together Tues-Wed.”
“@ScottLauber: Dombrowski said #RedSox identified only a few pitchers, including Pomeranz, who would ”substantially upgrade“ rotation.”
“@brianmacp: Dombrowski said that he was being asked for the same return price (i.e. Espinoza-tier prospects) for rentals as for controllable starters.”
I don't think this post got enough attention. If the Sox and Braves swapped records and as a result DD sent Steven Wright to Atlanta for Kolby Allard, most people would be, at best, a little uneasy about the deal, if not totally freaking out about the deal.
I see this deal as a necessary evil. It would be nice to see the Sox develop Espinoza, but it's not going to happen quickly and it's A LOT more likely that Espinoza never even makes it to the majors, let alone be the Pedro-like Ace people like to wishcast upon him.
It's not the highest price to pay precisely because Espinoza is so young, so it's certainly a lot better than trading Benintendi or Moncada.
I saw that Pomeranz start against the Yankees, and while the Yankees aren't what they once were, if we get that Pomeranz a good chunk of the next 2.5 years, we won't be worrying too much about losing Espinoza.
Smart, ballsy move by DDski. He's obviously valuing short and mid-term over long term, but with a pitching prospect, long term = wishcasting most of the time. TINSTAAPP. Plus, we have Kopech and just signed Groome for long term prospect splooging.
GFIN is not just a possible option; it's reality this year. Sox are playing well enough, can make the playoffs, and then see if Papi can repeat 2013. Getting a pitcher pitching very well now, who is also controllable? W/o giving up his two best prospects or any MLB pieces? Dombrowski isn't losing any sleep over this one.
GFIN is not just a possible option; it's reality this year. Sox are playing well enough, can make the playoffs, and then see if Papi can repeat 2013. Getting a pitcher pitching very well now, who is also controllable? W/o giving up his two best prospects or any MLB pieces? Dombrowski isn't losing any sleep over this one.
I love the controlled aggression approach from DD. Not tip-toeing around. Targets a guy and gets him well before the deadline which is when everyone tightens up and scares themselves off any deal once prices skyrocket (not that this isn't a high price).
And when he decides to pay up, he's not paying for rentals. More fast and loose with chips than the last couple guys, but it's not like we haven't seen our share of disappointing prospects roll through town.
Given the quality of the team over the next 2-3 years, they needed another starter.
It's not likely that the team would be better in 3-5 years with Espinoza as a cy young contender than it will be with Pomeranz as a #3/4 now. And that's if Espinoza fulfills his potential.
This trade make sense. Espinoza has the potential to be a #1 but that's the only way the sox lose this trade unless Pomeranz stinks. And even if he becomes a #1 they can view the trade as a success if Pomeranz pitches like he has this season or contributes to a pennant or title.
It's not likely that the team would be better in 3-5 years with Espinoza as a cy young contender than it will be with Pomeranz as a #3/4 now. And that's if Espinoza fulfills his potential.
This trade make sense. Espinoza has the potential to be a #1 but that's the only way the sox lose this trade unless Pomeranz stinks. And even if he becomes a #1 they can view the trade as a success if Pomeranz pitches like he has this season or contributes to a pennant or title.
I'll offer my quick thoughts on this trade:
1) Pomeranz added a cutter this year (sorry if this has already been posted)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/drew-pomeranz-now-with-50-more-pitches/
2) The cutter dramatically changed his profile, and has allowed him to induce lots of weak contact with a lower than average BABIP.
3) Pomeranz is performing at an elite level, is young, cheap and controllable for the next several seasons.
4) No matter how good Espinoza becomes, he's 18, and he's 2-3 seasons-at best-away from appearing in the majors, much less producing at a competitive level there. It also bears noting that Espinoza is struggling in A ball. That doesn't mean that much, but it certainly doesn't mean he's ready to fly through the minors to Fenway in the next 12 months.
5) They address the single biggest need on the team without disrupting the current roster, OR taking on a terrible contract with lots of cash left on it.
6) David Ortiz is in his final season, and the chance to get the man into another October tourney trumps the other considerations.
That last bit says it all for me, and possibly for DD. I'm not saying it isn't short sighted, or that there isn't risk associated with taking on Pomeranz for a huge upside guy in Espinoza. There is, and Pomeranz can crater, get hurt, or just not perform in Boston, and it wouldn't surprise anyone. However, even with the risks inherent in the trade, I'd make it 10 times out of 10 given the circumstances of this team, and with Ortiz' situation. I'm more than willing to suffer the slings and arrows of those who adore the Red Sox farm system-I'm a prospect lover myself-but the reason you have a farm system sometimes is to get guys like Pomeranz when the situation calls for it. There aren't any other starters on the market (or in the system) who are lock solid bets to be productive after a trade, and the only guys I'd say I'd feel very confident in acquiring without risk are guys like Sale and Fernandez, neither of whom would have been available for a single Espinoza. Everyone else: Hill, Santana, Hellickson, all the Rays arms-they all have risks for various reasons, and all of them make more than Pomeranz and/or are not controllable as long as he is.
Sign me up for this deal. Get Papi a 4th ring.
1) Pomeranz added a cutter this year (sorry if this has already been posted)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/drew-pomeranz-now-with-50-more-pitches/
2) The cutter dramatically changed his profile, and has allowed him to induce lots of weak contact with a lower than average BABIP.
3) Pomeranz is performing at an elite level, is young, cheap and controllable for the next several seasons.
4) No matter how good Espinoza becomes, he's 18, and he's 2-3 seasons-at best-away from appearing in the majors, much less producing at a competitive level there. It also bears noting that Espinoza is struggling in A ball. That doesn't mean that much, but it certainly doesn't mean he's ready to fly through the minors to Fenway in the next 12 months.
5) They address the single biggest need on the team without disrupting the current roster, OR taking on a terrible contract with lots of cash left on it.
6) David Ortiz is in his final season, and the chance to get the man into another October tourney trumps the other considerations.
That last bit says it all for me, and possibly for DD. I'm not saying it isn't short sighted, or that there isn't risk associated with taking on Pomeranz for a huge upside guy in Espinoza. There is, and Pomeranz can crater, get hurt, or just not perform in Boston, and it wouldn't surprise anyone. However, even with the risks inherent in the trade, I'd make it 10 times out of 10 given the circumstances of this team, and with Ortiz' situation. I'm more than willing to suffer the slings and arrows of those who adore the Red Sox farm system-I'm a prospect lover myself-but the reason you have a farm system sometimes is to get guys like Pomeranz when the situation calls for it. There aren't any other starters on the market (or in the system) who are lock solid bets to be productive after a trade, and the only guys I'd say I'd feel very confident in acquiring without risk are guys like Sale and Fernandez, neither of whom would have been available for a single Espinoza. Everyone else: Hill, Santana, Hellickson, all the Rays arms-they all have risks for various reasons, and all of them make more than Pomeranz and/or are not controllable as long as he is.
Sign me up for this deal. Get Papi a 4th ring.
Even so, it still comes down to opportunity and Hill wasn't going to get that in Boston at any price. So he took the best deal he could get AND have an opportunity. And that was Oakland.
It's really tricky, while I can see the argument that Dombrowski could have fixed the rotation with a lesser pitcher, we have seen a lot of lesser pitchers struggle, and so if he acquires Hellickson or Hill and they end up hurt or ineffective it's a complete waste. Pomeranz is quite possibly the best SP that will be moved, and the cost for that is high. I imagine that practically every contender that needs SP was talking to Preller so there isn't much room for Dombrowski to negotiate, this is a 27-year old cheap SP having a terrific season with a good trajectory and no serious durability issues. If Toronto or Baltimore make this trade it is a big blow to the Red Sox playoff chances.
Dombrowski is going to make splashy deals, it's what he does, so I'm hoping this scratches that itch and we don't have to worry about losing even better prospects. I think it will, Pomeranz, even if he's just ok by his 2016 standards is exactly what this team needs and there is a ton of upside.
Dombrowski is going to make splashy deals, it's what he does, so I'm hoping this scratches that itch and we don't have to worry about losing even better prospects. I think it will, Pomeranz, even if he's just ok by his 2016 standards is exactly what this team needs and there is a ton of upside.
That's EXACTLY the point which you keep missing. You say it's SSS, but over the last 900+ ABs against him, his BABIP is .255. That's WAY below league average BABIP. And the other year he had more than a handful of games (2012), he was also below league average.
He's good at it. It's not SSS. It's him.
The problem isn't that you don't like the trade. The issue is that the reasons you are giving simply aren't factually true. You can say that you don't like Pomeranz because of the SSS of his BABIP (or something). But it's absolutely, unequivocally, not true that his really fucking good BABIP was built up in a SSS. You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
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I think that would have been a mistake. He'd just seemingly turned it around as a starter in the second half; why would you mess with with that?
Can the Red Sox really go with three LHP? There's no law against it I guess. I'm going to look at their splits for (career / 2016) and use OPS since I'm a simple man:
Price
RHB .670 / .725
LHB .586 / .693
Pomeranz
RHB .721 / .546
LHB .516 / .575
Rodriguez
RHB .420 / 1.019
LHB .496 / .850
Price has a noticeable split over his career, but what's more noticeable is how relatively poor his stats are this year
Pomeranz pre-2016 had a big split, but this version, with his new pitch, has been handling RHB really well...to the tune of a reverse split
Rodriguez is just a lot of noise (I'll look at his minor league stats later). Fantastic reverse split last year and nothing-to-look-at-here for this year.
So I'm going to answer my own question. If Pomeranz is for real, he's the kind of LHP you'd want on a lefty-heavy staff.
Price
RHB .670 / .725
LHB .586 / .693
Pomeranz
RHB .721 / .546
LHB .516 / .575
Rodriguez
RHB .420 / 1.019
LHB .496 / .850
Price has a noticeable split over his career, but what's more noticeable is how relatively poor his stats are this year
Pomeranz pre-2016 had a big split, but this version, with his new pitch, has been handling RHB really well...to the tune of a reverse split
Rodriguez is just a lot of noise (I'll look at his minor league stats later). Fantastic reverse split last year and nothing-to-look-at-here for this year.
So I'm going to answer my own question. If Pomeranz is for real, he's the kind of LHP you'd want on a lefty-heavy staff.
The Red Sox are in the entertainment business and this is a true bridge year. They are losing the team’s, and arguably the sport’s, biggest star.
The basket of puppies that is the B’s are highly marketable assets. The best way to maximize their value and bridge the gap is to GFIN and put them on a big stage this year.
If I’m DD, and I have a crystal ball, and I’m certain that AE is Pedro 2.0, I still make the trade in a heartbeat.
Ya he only pitched 35 percent of his career innings at Coors. Clearly you have a better grasp of the market than I do. Im probably overreacting due to my opinion that they got robbed in the kimbrel deal. This is much more of a coin flip, though Espinoza is a bit much for me. I believe the players they traded away in the Kimbrel deal would of allowed them to keep Espinoza. I certainly agree my initial reaction was over the top, though dying in a fire seems like a harsh punishment. I don't get the personal attacks.
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I've seen what he's contributed to the site over the past decade. A lot of people could learn from him, if not necessarily that post.
Only if the same crystal ball also says getting Drew guarantees a WS title this year.
He'll be the 5th guy after the break, pitching next Wednesday. I assume they will try to build in some days off since he hasn't pitched that many innings the last couple of years.
Tuesday or Wednesday against the Giants. He's faced them three times this season; they're hitting .207 against him.
The last two times he faced the, the Padres lost 2-1 and 1-0. He gave up six hits over 13 innings in those two starts
The Sox have said they'll pitch Wright on Friday, Eduardo on Saturday and Price on Sunday.
So . . maybe Tuesday at Fenway against the Giants?
Old and slow at the keyboard.
That's fair but it's an odd time to defend the guy. That post was as bad as a post can be - certainly a lot worse than arguably misguided posts about DD's trades
New pitch and getting away from Coors. Issues with RHB in 2015, but 2014 RHB numbers very similar to this year.
Since leaving Colorado:
2014
RHB 563
LHB 663
2015
RHB 749
LHB 438
Not really. The could of, would of, should of is more than enough reason to wish death upon someone.
It was the perfect time to defend the guy. But if you have an issue him, you should either report the post or take it to backwash.
Do you actually believe Rip wishes fiery death upon another poster for posting stupid shit?
I'm not surprised that the teams were asking the same price for rentals as longer term guys.
Either they give up Espinoza for Rich Hill (which is in-goddamn-sane) or straight up for Pomerantz (which is neither insane nor a panic move).
I'm sure teams with even the most mediocre of pitching to sell are throwing any crazy reply out there to see if someone is desperate/stupid/crazy enough to pull the trigger.
Either they give up Espinoza for Rich Hill (which is in-goddamn-sane) or straight up for Pomerantz (which is neither insane nor a panic move).
I'm sure teams with even the most mediocre of pitching to sell are throwing any crazy reply out there to see if someone is desperate/stupid/crazy enough to pull the trigger.
Seriously? I would be shocked if that poster or posters were alive for that trade.
Seriously that they're posting that, or people are dumb enough to read it?
Christ... We got an All-Star pitcher for an 18-year old with a high ceiling and people are going mental... crazy...
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 25m25 minutes ago
Dombrowski notes that going into the winter with 4 starters under control is a plus. … Also emergence of Kopech made deal more palatable
Dombrowski notes that going into the winter with 4 starters under control is a plus. … Also emergence of Kopech made deal more palatable
No offense taken im sure he's a good guy. My car did slide off the road end up in a ditch last Saturday no fires though it's all good.
Yes. But if you were Hill would you rather sign with Boston and come into camp competing with 9 other guys for a spot in the starting rotation, or go to Oakland where a starting spot was virtually guaranteed if your arm didn't fall off? Hill has limited time to make some money, the worst case for him would be to sign with Biston and end up pitching middle relief.
One more thing that hasn't been mentioned: this likely means the price tag for Teheran was even higher. Curious to see the offers heading Atlanta's way come the deadline.
Espinoza's the #4 pitching prospect in all professional baseball. At age 18, with high 90's heat and a plus change and curve.
The Red Sox hadn't found a "high ceiling" like that since Clemens. Now they have 2.4 years of Pomeranz.
We've had disagreements in this thread but for the record I'm glad your car didn't catch fire and that you are likely still alive though maybe a bit reactionary.
What a bullshit answer 14 innings from a guy who punched a teammate and got busted for PEDS made the trade easier for DD to make.
Jesus fucking christ, THAT WAS NOT AD HOMINEM.
Pointing out your contribution to this thread is useless because you read about logical fallacies one day but never bothered to look them up is not ad hominem.
I hope you die in a car crash, you stupid fucking piece of shit.*
*NOT AD HOMINEM, JUST A QUOTE
