The Bullpen Thread

Buchholz hadn't given up a HR in 13 straight appearances before last night, including 3 starts.

He has had a very weird season. If two pitches he made against the Astros months ago were turned into outs, his season ERA would drop from 5.20 to 4.57. Still bad, but much, much less horrific.

He has been pretty good lately, and unlucky overall this season. But he also had a long stretch of terribleness this year too.

I don't think he is going to do well as a late inning high leverage reliever this year. From what we've seen of him over the years, I can't see that role working out for him. I think he would do pretty well the rest of the way as a starter, but apparently that's not going to happen.

I don't know what the answer is for this bullpen. Dombrowski has brought in Kimbrel, Smith, Abad, and Zeigler already. Those guys were good relievers when they were acquired, and should make up the core of a good bullpen, especially combined with Uehara, Tazawa, Ross, Layne and three guys who throw in the mid-to-high 90s, Kelly, Ross and Hembree. And now we have Buchholz, who seemed to be doing well as a starter recently, blowing a close game too.

Another weird thing: ERA+ loves some of our relievers. Hembree has thrown 41.1 innings with an ERA+ of 192. Layne was at 122 with the Red Sox. Zeigler's at 245 in his 19 innings with Boston. Barnes is still at 104 despite his recent implosion. Ross is at 127. Koji's had his worst season ever and is still at 102.

And somehow we only have 15 blown saves all year, but 6 of those have come in August.

It seems like even if they bring in yet another arm, whoever it is will probably just suck once they get here too. Kelly should have been up a week ago, but the way things are going, he would likely be crappy as well. But you've got to give the guy a chance with the numbers he is putting up in AAA and our ridiculous need for a reliable setup man.

Might as well bring in Papelbon now, not because he would be any good, but so we could then have four 30-save closers in the same godawful bullpen.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

Also, looking at Farrell in the dugout last night during the 8th and 9th reminded me of a man watching an autopsy.

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His own.

Britton details the blown games of August.
"In their 13 losses this month, the Red Sox have led in the sixth inning or later eight times."

The Gray Eagle said:

Britton details the blown games of August.
"In their 13 losses this month, the Red Sox have led in the sixth inning or later eight times."

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Picking a reliever on this team these days is like day-trading.

joe dokes said:

Picking a reliever on this team these days is like day-trading.

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At night.

Rasputin said:

At night.

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But never at dusk

joe dokes said:

Picking a reliever on this team these days is like day-trading.

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Fuck, if only the level of success were that good.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

A relief pitcher who appears in around 50 games a year can't have 5 horrible games like Papelbon has had.

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Oh, so you just have unreasonable expectations for a reliever. Because about 95% of them have five games where they pitch to shit results.

The Sox don't need a savior or an eight inning guy. They need someone competent enough to handle the seventh or even the sixth in some cases. There's no reasonable argument to be made that he wouldn't be a positive addition performance wise. And he won't sign if it's a "I need to be the closer" situation.

Two things frustrated me a lot today:

1) You can use Kimbrel, but won't use him in the 8th inning with two outs and the bases loaded? I know we are in the Eckersley Hoffman world of closer use (maddening), but if you are only going to get three outs let that situation be one of them, and if you are going to get a four out save, now would be good. But if he can't for some reason, I'd rather him throw five pitches to get out of that and watch Clay throw the ninth with the bases empty and a two run lead. I know Wright's four inning start and relievers unavailable made things trickier, but with Sept callups available for the next game, and a day and a half off anyway, what better situation to get a four out save?

2) Taz gets ahead on two fastballs. I didn't love the second one, but okay, there we were, and it least he didn't give up a grand slam on a first pitch curve. Then he throws a really good just off the plate fastball ball, good to surprise a hitter sitting off speed, and it almost worked. Now you have 1-2 and the hitter having timed three straight fastballs. If you are a paint master you can throw one on the inside black, but that situation is screaming splitter. Instead he throws the wrong choice and executes it as poorly as possible middle middle and gives up the lead. Next pitch to the next batter is a great splitter for a swinging strike.

Both of these are just really bad choices if your goal is to maximize your chances of winning a single baseball game and also to maximize your chances of getting to the playoffs. If we finish a game ahead or behind, we can thank the baseball fairies for allowing us to walk away clean on this one, despite some really bad decision making by Farrell, Leon, and Taz.

We need to be better at these things over the next month.

Koufax, today, Bochy brought in his closer, Santiago Casillo with two outs in the 8th. Romo, who is usually more reliable than any Sox 8th inning guy, had loaded em up. Very similar situation. It worked. Casilla got the four outs. You really don't see it much anymore. Takes a manager with balls.

koufax37 said:

1) You can use Kimbrel, but won't use him in the 8th inning with two outs and the bases loaded? I know we are in the Eckersley Hoffman world of closer use (maddening), but if you are only going to get three outs let that situation be one of them, and if you are going to get a four out save, now would be good. But if he can't for some reason, I'd rather him throw five pitches to get out of that and watch Clay throw the ninth with the bases empty and a two run lead. I know Wright's four inning start and relievers unavailable made things trickier, but with Sept callups available for the next game, and a day and a half off anyway, what better situation to get a four out save?

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I'm not really sure it's wise to use Clay Buchholz three games in a row. I think I would have brought Kimbrel in for the 8th and to start the 9th but told he's not going to throw a ton of pitches. I don't know whose throwing day it was, but I'd consider asking them to start warming up as soon as Kimbrel does just so they could pitch the ninth.

The simple reality is that there weren't any good options there. Kimbrel threw a bunch of pitches the day before. Buch had pitched the previous two games. Taz is toast.

koufax37 said:

We need to be better at these things over the next month.

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The only way to get better is to get better arms. Kelly may well be one. Ideally we'd have Kimbrel for the 9th, Buch or Kelly for the 8th, Kelly or Buch for the 7th, and Ziegler and Ross available for specific matchups.

Also, if our starters would go 6+ every day, that would be cool.

Al Zarilla said:

Koufax, today, Bochy brought in his closer, Santiago Casillo with two outs in the 8th. Romo, who is usually more reliable than any Sox 8th inning guy, had loaded em up. Very similar situation. It worked. Casilla got the four outs. You really don't see it much anymore. Takes a manager with balls.

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And the Yankees brought in Betances with no outs in the 8th the other day. Didn't work out, but it was the right call.

Darnell's Son said:

Or a reliever on four five days rest....either way.View attachment 12030

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I yearn for the days of Fingers, Sutter, Gossage or the monster himself Dick Radatz, who would scoff at that. Really different game now wrt bullpen guys.

Just read this. YIKES

My Stats & Info colleague Jason McCallum shared this note: Koji Uehara was injured on July 19 and has not pitched since then. Since July 20, the Red Sox bullpen has a 7.02 ERA in the eighth inning when the score is within two runs. That is easily the worst in baseball during that span. The major league average is just under 3.00.

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Al Zarilla said:

I yearn for the days of Fingers, Sutter, Gossage or the monster himself Dick Radatz, who would scoff at that. Really different game now wrt bullpen guys.

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I love Radatz, too, but you know his career really only lasted 5 years (and only 4 years of 60+ innings), right? He had 4 very heavy use years, then 70 innings, then poof.

Al Zarilla said:

Koufax, today, Bochy brought in his closer, Santiago Casillo with two outs in the 8th. Romo, who is usually more reliable than any Sox 8th inning guy, had loaded em up. Very similar situation. It worked. Casilla got the four outs. You really don't see it much anymore. Takes a manager with balls.

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I thought someone posted yesterday that Kimbrel has never, not once in his career, pitched more than 1 inning on the second of back-to-backs. And I doubt Buchholz has ever pitched 3 days in a row.

I dont know about the size of Farrell's balls, but Kimbrel has pitched more than 1 inning 4 times this year. Genius-with-giant-testicles Bochy has used Casilla 6 times for more than 1 inning. Genius with testicles of unknown size Buck Showalter has used Zach Britton 5 times for more than 1 inning. Tito has used Cody Allen 5 times for more than 1 inning. We can't know whether Kimbrel would have gotten any more 1+ shots in the 25 days he was on the DL, but Farrell's usage doesn't seem out of the norm.

joe dokes said:

I thought someone posted yesterday that Kimbrel has never, not once in his career, pitched more than 1 inning on the second of back-to-backs. And I doubt Buchholz has ever pitched 3 days in a row.

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You are WAY off.

czar said:

As I posted on Twitter, Kimbrel has only pitched >1 inning on 0 days rest once in his entire seven year career. Clearly that's not something he's asked to do.

Coming off knee surgery, not sure it's as automatic as everyone here thinks.

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Getting lost in this is when Kimbrel pitched recently:

W Aug 20th - 1.1 inning save, v. DET. 21 pitches. Gets Cabrera with two on for the final out of the 8th.
L Aug 21st - (no use, Sox lose 10-5 to DET as Owens falls apart early.)
W Aug 22nd - (no use, Sox win 6-2 v. TBR. Barnes gives up 2 runs in the 9th.)
W Aug 23rd - 9th inning, save v. Detroit. 17 pitches. Sox win 2-1.
L Aug 24th - used for 2 outs in the 9th, tied game. 12 pitches. Hembree pitches the 10th and 11th - Sox lose.
L Aug 25th - (no use, Sox lose 2-1 to TBR.)
L Aug 26th - (no use, Sox lose 6-3 to Royals.)
W Aug 27th - (no use, Sox blow out Royals early, 7-2 by the 5th inning.)
L Aug 28th - (no use, up 4-2, Sox give up 8 runs in the 6th to the Royals - E-Rod loaded the bases and Barnes unloaded them.)
W Aug 29th - (no use, Sox blow out TBR early)
L Aug 30th - 9th inning, 3 outs. 22 pitches. Buch pitched the 8th in a 3-3 game, giving up the go ahead run to Longoria.
W Aug 31st - 9th inning, save. 10 pitches. Taz ties the game in the top of the 8th, Sox go ahead in the bottom.
Sept 1 - (Day off)
Sept 2 - Price v. Triggs at Oakland.

I can see Farrell not wanting to exhaust Kimbrel on the 24th, but he had thrown 17 pitches the night before.
I can't really say that Farrell had a good opportunity to use Kimbrel, from the 25th to the 29th, but if he was just going to get in his work on the 30th, maybe he should have faced the most dangerous TBR hitters (Longoria/Miller) in the 8th. Similarly, if he's going to appear on the 31st, why not have him get the final out of the 8th? (Especially when they're not playing today, and play Oakland on Tues with Price starting.)

I can only assume Farrell is managing for the SV statistic, or that Kimbrel has some sort of unusual problem where he can't pitch the 8th.

koufax37 said:

And the Yankees brought in Betances with no outs in the 8th the other day. Didn't work out, but it was the right call.

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Was that a day game following a night game where he threw 22 pitches? I said it in the game thread that there was NO scenario where a responsible manager gets his closer up twice in an afternoon game after a late night outing 15-16 hours earlier. You are asking your main guy to get up three times within 16 hours.......if this were an October series than I would agree with you. Not in yesterday afternoons scenario though. I'm certain it was never a consideration nor should have been.....and it has nothing to do with "having balls" whatever that means.

Rovin Romine said:

I can only assume Farrell is managing for the SV statistic, or that Kimbrel has some sort of unusual problem where he can't pitch the 8th.

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Or that Farrell is (unfortunately, for those that would like to see better bullpen optimization across MLB) managing like most other managers manage in 2016.

Al Zarilla said:

I yearn for the days of Fingers, Sutter, Gossage or the monster himself Dick Radatz, who would scoff at that. Really different game now wrt bullpen guys.

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The money, analytics, agents, and the players union have changed the game. Agents and the Players Union have to protect these guys so the Kimbrel's don't end up like Sutter, Radatz, and our own Bill Campbell who was finished in his late 20's after being royally abused by usage which you are promoting.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

You are WAY off.

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HomeRunBaker said:

The money, analytics, agents, and the players union have changed the game. Agents and the Players Union have to protect these guys so the Kimbrel's don't end up like Sutter, Radatz, and our own Bill Campbell who was finished in his late 20's after being royally abused by usage which you are promoting.

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It's really interesting to see folks lament Taz' current status but also yearn for the days of reckless abandon w/r/t usage.

rembrat said:

It's really interesting to see folks lament Taz' current status but also yearn for the days of reckless abandon w/r/t usage.

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Tazawa is warming up and pitching in just as many games as pitchers back then. The difference is he doesn't go multiple innings. The warming up in more than half of games earlier in the year is the biggest problem for him and he has even said it, calling out Farrell.

Also, I think relief pitchers today throw with much higher effort.

Well relief pitchers today are psychically capable of throwing with higher effort considering all the strength & conditioning they utilize. And where did Taz blame Farrell for "all the warming up?" Anyone have a link handy?

HomeRunBaker said:

The money, analytics, agents, and the players union have changed the game. Agents and the Players Union have to protect these guys so the Kimbrel's don't end up like Sutter, Radatz, and our own Bill Campbell who was finished in his late 20's after being royally abused by usage which you are promoting.

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Yeah, relievers never get hurt now. Also, I don't really know what union or agents could do if a team used a guy except complain. There's no pitch counts negotiated in the CBA or contracts.

There is a space between abuse and strict one-inning usage that more teams should try, at least with their relief aces. Dellin Betances is used pretty agressively and seems to be fine. Heck even Sutter had 9 great years before he got hurt. That's a lot more than the usual closer who pitches one inning nowadays.

rembrat said:

Well relief pitchers today are psychically capable of throwing with higher effort considering all the strength & conditioning they utilize. And where did Taz blame Farrell for "all the warming up?" Anyone have a link handy?

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This is all I could find, but there was more. "Time to warm up Taz" is an incredibly overused meme over on soxprospects. Every game thread in April, May and June had multiple "Why is Taz warming up in a 5 run game?" type of posts.


He's probably warming up now on an off day too.

Toe Nash said:

Yeah, relievers never get hurt now. Also, I don't really know what union or agents could do if a team used a guy except complain. There's no pitch counts negotiated in the CBA or contracts.

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I'm assuming the MLB managers who share some/many agent relationships as their players are on the same page in regards to the usage that is considered standard now due to the pressure of the agents and players union to protect their players. I don't know if the agents play as large a role as someone like Warren LeGarie has with NBA Head Coach movement over the years but I'm be surprised if it isn't at least somewhat similar based on how usage has changed consistently across the board over the decades.

Lose Remerswaal said:

I love Radatz, too, but you know his career really only lasted 5 years (and only 4 years of 60+ innings), right? He had 4 very heavy use years, then 70 innings, then poof.

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Yes, Radatz was on poor Sox teams and they threw him out there whenever to try to wring out a win. They'd bring him into a game, Sox behind, as early as the 4th or 5th. Sox would come back to tie it and he'd stay in, even into extras, pitching 9 innings or so trying to get the win. He averaged 68 games appeared in and 134 innings in his first four seasons with Boston, and was basically was burned out after that. Maybe they thought such a big guy had no limits. Unheard of usage. Well, i see Gossage and Fingers, probably more guys had similar stretches and survived it. Radatz's size apparently didn't keep him from ruining his arm.

Al Zarilla said:

Yes, Radatz was on poor Sox teams and they threw him out there whenever to try to wring out a win. They'd bring him into a game, Sox behind, as early as the 4th or 5th. Sox would come back to tie it and he'd stay in, even into extras, pitching 9 innings or so trying to get the win. He averaged 68 games appeared in and 134 innings in his first four seasons with Boston, and was basically was burned out after that. Maybe they thought such a big guy had no limits. Unheard of usage. Well, i see Gossage and Fingers, probably more guys had similar stretches and survived it. Radatz's size apparently didn't keep him from ruining his arm.

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Bob Stanley in 82 and 83 -- 112 games, 0 starts, 88 games finished, 313 IP

joe dokes said:

Bob Stanley in 82 and 83 -- 112 games, 0 starts, 88 games finished, 313 IP

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I'd be surprised if he was throwing 80.

SpaceMan37 said:

I'd be surprised if he was throwing 80.

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4K's/9;

ERA+ 140, 153.

joe dokes said:

4K's/9;

ERA+ 140, 153.

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That sure was a different time. I have a hard time comparing eras like that.

HomeRunBaker said:

Was that a day game following a night game where he threw 22 pitches? I said it in the game thread that there was NO scenario where a responsible manager gets his closer up twice in an afternoon game after a late night outing 15-16 hours earlier. You are asking your main guy to get up three times within 16 hours.......if this were an October series than I would agree with you. Not in yesterday afternoons scenario though. I'm certain it was never a consideration nor should have been.....and it has nothing to do with "having balls" whatever that means.

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In no way am I advocating pitcher abuse or overuse in this game. I am advocating efficient allocation of pitching resources.

I've been on the other side of abuse personally in my 13 years, including being sent out to start the ninth of a game I was winning over 140 pitches (a Chuck Carr single knocked me out and we eventually lost), pitching over three innings each in both halves of a double header, throwing ten innings in a game, closing game 1 and starting game 2, and the get up/sit down cycle without getting into a game. Although me having been a little more Moyer-ish than Kimbrel-ish, I'm sure my experience is somewhat different in the slow lane.

I think inefficient closer use patterns where they are happy to throw the closer when leading 4-1 against the bottom of the order, but won't bring him in with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth are still a lingering inefficiency that costs teams wins. They probably balance out as inefficient closer utilization is pretty evenly distributed among clubs. And with power arms in the 7th and 8th these days, many clubs don't have the drop off and can leave the "Closer (tm)" in the save situations and throw ungodly stuff at the tough situation (the Papelbon/Bard situation we enjoyed briefly).

Returning to the specific, if you only wanted Kimbrel to pitch in a single inning, or a specific number of pitches, or something else for his personal benefit, I think you would look very hard at the most valuable use of that acceptable stress-level includes pitching with a 8-6 lead and the bases loaded. I think his value over a can't-be-trusted-tough-moment Taz is higher than the downgrade of needing to leave the 9th to Clay if you really can't have him pitch across two innings. So those are my exit scenarios to use Kimbrel in the 8th and not stress him more than his eventual 10 pitch ninth use that was acceptable to Farrell.

I also think despite the 22 pitches the night before (which were coming off five days rest), and having a guaranteed day and a half before you would use him again, and 40 man flexibility to try to avoid using him another day or two beyond that, there was definitely the opportunity to go for a four out save without risking his health, and a backup plan if the pitch count didn't add up and Clay had to finish.

I don't think a manager should necessarily brag about the total count of 4+ out saves during the regular season, and don't think more is better until October, but choosing when to use the half dozen or so you might over the course of a season, and occasionally be willing to let a closer enter a game he specifically will not finish can make a difference in a closely contested season. And most playoff teams do not currently have the drop off from closer to setup man that our Kimbrel + Taz + Clay - Ziegler - Smith - Kojii setup does, so all the more reason for a little extra creativity.

Or of course, Taz can just throw the damn splitter 1-2 instead of a middle middle fourth fastball in a row and make Farrell look brilliant despite going what I think was the less optimum decision.

Asking Joe Kelly to save the bullpen/8th inning here, I see he had a good 2K clean inning, albeit against a crap team I'll still take it.

Meh - he gave up two hard hit balls, and got away with another right down broadway.. Though he snapped off one good curveball that I hadn't seen from him in a while.

grimshaw said:

Meh - he gave up two hard hit balls, and got away with another right down broadway.. Though he snapped off one good curveball that I hadn't seen from him in a while.

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Thanks. Somehow I missed the two hits in the box score

Trotsky said:

Thanks. Somehow I missed the two hits in the box score

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It was just the one, but he gave up a liner to Hernandez too if my blearied eyes recall correctly.

Looks like Koji will be available for the San Diego series.

This could really be the season. If we get 2013/2014 Koji for the stretch run, this team could make some serious hay. If Koji can't find the past magic, the bullpen will likely be the team's undoing.

I'll admit that the idea sounds wrong to me, too... But by the numbers, Robbie Ross Jr is actually having a fantastic season. His numbers overall--and his L/R splits--are both actually better than vintage 2013/2014 Taz. Well, his BB numbers are a tick higher...

RRjr is giving up an OPS against of .642 to RHH, and a very nice .486 to LHH. HIs whip is a stingy 1.15, and his key peripherals are pretty reassuring, too. 9.3 k/9, 3.3 bb/9, 0.4/hr 9 (and 7.1 h/9). His BABIP is at a career low at .289, but not that far from his career .314, and his HR numbers may be unsustainable... But he has the numbers of a solid set-up guy.

So, why aren't we clamoring for RRjr to be anointed as a key set-up guy? Is it that he is a lefty? That we've seen him struggle? That we lack confidence in him in high-lev situations?

At very least, the notion that Abad should be the top choice for match-ups vs LHH seems wrong.

I agree that he's been quite good, though I think you have to factor in his wildness issues (8 HBP and 6 WP so far; those HBP would bring his WHIP up to 1.32 if they counted). He also goes 2 innings often enough that I prefer him in the 6th/7th to just being an 8th inning guy.

As to Abad, I don't think he's anyone's top choice for anything (except a bad pun or two, maybe), but I'd like to see him whenever it's safe just to reduce Ross' workload and keep him functioning for the next two months.

I am also of the opinion that Ross is having a better season than is generally acknowledged. While he doesn't seem particularly less likely to crap his pants than anyone else barring Kimbrel back there, for some reason Ross seems to have been given fewer high leverage spots than the other pants crappers to prove it.

Ross/Ziegler/Koji as your back end of the bullpen isn't too bad, really. Depending on performance, of course. And you also have guys like Buchholz (if Wright comes back) and Kelly to play around with this month as well.

I didn't see this in the thread. This is effing insane:

"The Red Sox have a team ERA of 12.42 in high-leverage situations this season. That is unfathomable."

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/02/the-red-soxs-pitching-is-terrible-in-high-leverage-situations/

I would have gone with inconceivable but yeah that really sucks.

Byrdbrain said:

I would have gone with inconceivable but yeah that really sucks.

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The word you're looking for is preposterous

You're both wrong. The word is DOGSHIT.