Kyrie Irving traded to Celtics for IT, Crowder, Zizic, BKN 1st, 2020 2nd

Buster Olney the Lonely · Aug 30, 2017

Big John said:
I'd be shocked if the Nets win as many as 30 games. And in this draft you don't have to be top 1 or 2. Anywhere in the top 5 will do. Porter, Bagley, Ayton, Doncic, Bamba. Any one of those guys could be an all-star, and it's close too 100% that at least two of them will be.

What is interesting to me is how much better the Nets were with Jeremy Lin last year (36.1 winning percentage) than without (24.4%). This is in no way scientific, but a 36.1% winning percentage over 82 games comes out to 29.6 wins. In addition there are three other factors that I think will help the Nets:
1. the Nets are better able to deal with an injury to Lin because they have Russell.
2. the Nets are one of the top three point shooting teams in terms of attempts (4th overall) and now have an elite three point shooter in Crabbe (2nd overall in 3pt FG%)
3. several eastern conference teams got significantly worse now: Chicago, Atlanta, Indiana

I understand that they lost Brook. I think 30 wins is well within reach.

DavidTai · Aug 30, 2017

Eddie Jurak said:
Irving is a fairly unique case. How often does a guy follow his particular trajectory.? 3 years on a crap team as a very young player, followed by 3 years on a great, but LBJ-dominated team, followed by a trade to a team with an innovative coach and a strong supporting cast.

I've been trying to find guys that young in that kind of situation and I can't even track down anything like that as it's pretty hard to find someone who's been starters that young and drafted that high -and- started that long before switching over to a new team. The thesis seems ridiculously hard to take on faith - I'd definitely like to see who else has been six years starters before switching to a new team, and how old they were at the time... I just can't think of very many players who -were- six years starters at that young an age, and I've seen starters who went past 7 years who got better (granted, same scheme) that it just doesn't seem to make sense that a starter's been basically baked in as who he is without evidence that this -is- a thing.

thehitcat · Aug 30, 2017

DavidTai said:
I've been trying to find guys that young in that kind of situation and I can't even track down anything like that as it's pretty hard to find someone who's been starters that young and drafted that high -and- started that long before switching over to a new team. The thesis seems ridiculously hard to take on faith - I'd definitely like to see who else has been six years starters before switching to a new team, and how old they were at the time... I just can't think of very many players who -were- six years starters at that young an age, and I've seen starters who went past 7 years who got better (granted, same scheme) that it just doesn't seem to make sense that a starter's been basically baked in as who he is without evidence that this -is- a thing.

What about 6 year starters who don't switch teams but who move under a new coach with a new system. That should approximate the change at least a little.

Sam Ray Not · Aug 30, 2017

Buster Olney the Lonely said:
2. the Nets are one of the top three point shooting teams in terms of attempts (4th overall) and now have an elite three point shooter in Crabbe (2nd overall in 3pt FG%).

Plus a potentially really good one in Russell, who shot 41% from 3 in college, 35% as 19-20 year old in the NBA, and is still at an age (21) where players typically improve their shooting, sometimes significantly.

nighthob · Aug 30, 2017

I think six year starter is a completely arbitrary standard.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Aug 30, 2017

DavidTai said:
Your analysis/insight apparently didn't take a look at the list of teams Woj reported Irving listed at desired destinations, all of who had strong coaches (except New York). Certainly the act of someone who -doesn't- want to be coached and wants to be a freelancer, eh? Popovich and the Spurs! The Heat and Spolestra! The Timberwolves and Tom Thibodeau! Boston and Stevens as mentioned by David Griffin? Psh! Who would want to be coached by -that- as a freelancer?

https://www.celticsblog.com/2017/8/7/16109514/david-griffin-includes-boston-celtics-on-kyrie-irvings-list-of-desired-teams

If the concern trolling is that Irving wouldn't take to it, maybe he shouldn't have, you know, sought out teams with strong coaching situations, as reported by those same 'insiders' you seem to place more of an emphasis on. That or you should have paid better attention to what they were saying and then ask 'why -would- Irving want those kind of situations if he wants to keep freelancing?'

It took Bradley a number of years to develop and keep improving his game, and -he- was a starter under Stevens for most of the same period, as a... let's see, has he been a six years starter? So his sixth year he kept growing and improving. Don't think Bradley has topped out yet. I have a difficult time believing that a player in his sixth year can't keep improving, especially at the tender age of 25. Hell, so did Gordon Hayward over the same time period, and I don't think Hayward has topped out yet either.

I think that the biggest thing with Irving in Cleveland was the lack of coaching stability and that, you know, the -scheme- in Cleveland was essentially "Give the ball to Lebron and do what he wants you to do". Giving him an actual coach and work a scheme designed -for- him and see what he does -is- a cause for optimism. Which is what an actual x-and-o analyst is saying.

God knows, I don't think Irving is a top-five player -now-. But he has the ability to do things and Brad Stevens -is- very good at coaching and will be looking more at what Irving -can- do and maximize that. Irving could very well be the same player -and- look much better because they'd actually focus on what he can do and not ask him to keep chucking up shots when the clock dies. Although I suppose he -would- be a better option for that kind of thing than Marcus Smart, so there's that, too.

I offer no insight or analysis nor was that supposed to come across as such. I was simply offering a take on Lowe's piece. As for concern trolling, I am not sure I agree with the trolling part as I was reflecting my legitimate concerns.

That said you appear to be all in on Irving working out well as a Celtic which is entirely fair and, I should add, my desired outcome.

JakeRae · Aug 30, 2017

Sam Ray Not said:
Vegas has them at 28.5 wins, same as SAC and PHO, more than CHI or ATL, and within five games of NYK, IND, ORL, and LAL.

That's nine teams projected to suck, of which BKN has by far the least incentive to tank. They also just seem to have a youthful and positive vibe about them this year, with lots of shooters (= high variance), and a healthy Jeremy Lin to steady the ship and stir the drink.

Throw in a rando mediocre team or two who may drop due to injury, and I won't be at all surprised to see BKN end up in the #7-8 slot — which would give them only a 10-15% chance of hitting lotto.

Can you explain why the Nets have greater incentive to win games than the Lakers? Last I checked, neither owned their own pick and only one has a realistic shot of wooing top tier FA next year. It seems like the Lakers, not the Nets, have far more incentive to win.

That said, the key element of the Lakers/Kings pick is the downside protection this year. In a draft expected to run 5 players deep, getting a Mulligan if you end up outside the top 5 is very valuable.

lovegtm · Aug 30, 2017

JakeRae said:
Can you explain why the Nets have greater incentive to win games than the Lakers? Last I checked, neither owned their own pick and only one has a realistic shot of wooing top tier FA next year. It seems like the Lakers, not the Nets, have far more incentive to win.

That said, the key element of the Lakers/Kings pick is the downside protection this year. In a draft expected to run 5 players deep, getting a Mulligan if you end up outside the top 5 is very valuable.

Similar incentive to win (high for both). The Lakers are just in a way more difficult conference.

Sam Ray Not · Aug 30, 2017

JakeRae said:
Can you explain why the Nets have greater incentive to win games than the Lakers? Last I checked, neither owned their own pick and only one has a realistic shot of wooing top tier FA next year. It seems like the Lakers, not the Nets, have far more incentive to win.

Yeah, sorry, I think they're basically in the same category as the Nyets (though they could always try to "shoot the moon" for their #1 pick). All the other teams are in the tanker category.

And as lovegtm notes, while they may have marginally more incentive to win now than the Nets, and almost certainly have better overall talent, the brutality of the Western conference (where even nominal bubble teams like POR, DEN, LAC and UTA are stacked, and newly ascendant MIN and OKC should win 50+) may offset those factors.

lovegtm · Aug 30, 2017

Sam Ray Not said:
Yeah, sorry, I think they're basically in the same category as the Nyets (though they could always try to "shoot the moon" for their #1 pick). All the other teams are in the tanker category.

And as lovegtm notes, while they may have marginally more incentive to win now than the Nets, and almost certainly have better overall talent, the brutality of the Western conference (where even nominal bubble teams like POR, DEN, LAC and UTA are stacked) may offset those factors.

POR and Den are going to drop 140 on the Lakers some nights.

DavidTai · Aug 30, 2017

Sam Ray Not said:
Yeah, sorry, I think they're basically in the same category as the Nyets (though they could always try to "shoot the moon" for their #1 pick). All the other teams are in the tanker category.

And as lovegtm notes, while they may have marginally more incentive to win now than the Nets, and almost certainly have better overall talent, the brutality of the Western conference (where even nominal bubble teams like POR, DEN, LAC and UTA are stacked, and newly ascendant MIN and OKC should win 50+) may offset those factors.

I'd probably add that where before teams may be more inclined to rest players on back-to-backs and give the weaker teams chances to win that they wouldn't have before, they wouldn't be anymore to the schedule change. And in the West, that theoretically should mean a lot -less- 'giveaway' games with more 'strong' teams in that conference.

Auger34 · Aug 30, 2017

lovegtm said:
Similar incentive to win (high for both). The Lakers are just in a way more difficult conference.

I would add that, in addition to being in a more difficult conference, the Lakers are a very young team. I believe the only rotation player they have that would be considered a "veteran" is Brook Lopez (Luol Deng is a vet but they clearly don't want to play him much although one could argue to include KCP in the veteran category). So there will be some games that will be snatched from the jaws of victory due to growing pains and inexperience

Cesar Crespo · Aug 30, 2017

Lose Remerswaal said:
I said throw in an unprotected 2nd when this first came up and I stand by my position.

Would anyone give up Big Y instead?

I mentioned this a few months back, but I think the Celtics are higher on Yabu than Zizic. They brought him over from China for just a handful of D (now G) League games. If they weren't high on him, it doesn't seem like they would've bothered. Beyond that, Zizic has far more helium than Yabu and while he didn't hurt his stock in the summer league, he didn't exactly help it. He did show flashes but he looks limited. Yabu may be limited too but he has 3 point range, a long wingspan, that big butt and surprising athleticism. He won't be much more than a catch and shoot player in the NBA from what I've seen but that's all he needs to be. He did a lot of driving in China but I can't see that translating to the NBA at all. He's not very fluid bringing it to the rim.

edit: Honestly, he may get some burn this year if this Irving trade does go down and Theis isn't good.

Sprowl · Aug 30, 2017

DrewDawg said:
Which, of course, is also protected. Nothing is a guarantee, but the whole point is Cleveland can potentially get the #1 overall with that pick. That's the allure.

And from Ainge's point of view, he may not want to encumber a lesser pick because it would prevent him from using the LAL/SAC pick as a trading chip in the meantime.

I was surprised to see just how much the 76ers were willing to tie themselves down, encumbering both the Sacramento 2019 and the Philadelphia 2019 first-round picks. Ainge seems more concerned than other GMs with keeping his assets liquid and not interdependent.

DJnVa · Aug 30, 2017

Why is there twitter talk that the Bucks have sent over an increased offer for Kyrie?

This needs to end, one way or another.

Auger34 · Aug 30, 2017

This is absolutely insane. I hope, for Altman's sake, that this is due to Dan Gilbert throwing a fit and not some underhanded negotiation tactic.

Either way, if I were another NBA team I would be very hesitant to trade with Cleveland after this fiasco

dcmissle · Aug 30, 2017

DrewDawg said:
Why is there twitter talk that the Bucks have sent over an increased offer for Kyrie?

This needs to end, one way or another.

Oh, maybe because someone affiliated with Cleveland is planting it?

If I'm Ainge, I tell them to pound sand. And if they wheel Irving to another team, I file a grievance.

Here is just one local take today on a DC sports radio show of a former ESPNer:

Unless IT is irreparably damaged goods -- something IT has recently vehemently denied -- then this is a transparent, indefensible shakedown attempt. The only appropriate response: no mas.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Aug 30, 2017

Milwaukee really doesn't have a sweetener to add in terms of future assets but if this delay is due to LeBron, I could see him favoring Brogdan and Middleton versus a gimpy Thomas and Crowder (Zizic isn't likely to get much burn this season).

Light-Tower-Power · Aug 30, 2017

All that Twitter talk seems pretty meaningless. Of course the Bucks would make the trade if they were given the opportunity to do so. This will end with a second round pick going to Cleveland like everyone thought. For whatever reason Cleveland is just dragging it out.

Van Everyman · Aug 30, 2017

Seems to me that the Bucks talk is in large part because Lowe discussed it in his column:

The Milwaukee Bucks lurk on the fringes of the Irving bidding with an offer centered around Malcolm Brogdon, the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year, and Khris Middleton, sources say. The Bucks have not yet put a first-round pick on the table, sources say, but the bet here is that they would to get the deal done -- or if Irving showed any interest in staying in Milwaukee long-term.

Brogdon and Middleton are good. They can shoot 3-pointers, and switch across multiple positions on defense. They are tailor-made to help the Cavs mimic the Golden State Warriors, the only team LeBron really cares about right now.

They each provide some secondary ball-handling around Giannis Antetokounmpo. They do fine with that stuff in the regular season against most teams; Brogdon is a point guard by trade, and Middleton can post up mismatches and run nifty pick-and-rolls on the left wing. But compared to Irving, they are almost 3-and-D guys. It is a lot to ask of them to create consistent, efficient offense against elite postseason defenses.

A pick from the Bucks, an almost certain playoff team in the junior varsity conference, carries no blue-chip equity.

scottyno · Aug 30, 2017

dcmissle said:
Oh, maybe because someone affiliated with Cleveland is planting it?

If I'm Ainge, I tell them to pound sand. And if they wheel Irving to another team, I file a grievance.

Here is just one local take today on a DC sports radio show of a former ESPNer:

Unless IT is irreparably damaged goods -- something IT has recently vehemently denied -- then this is a transparent, indefensible shakedown attempt. The only appropriate response: no mas.

The cavs would have to be even dumber than we think they are to leak that the bucks approached them with an illegal trade

snowmanny · Aug 30, 2017

dcmissle said:
Oh, maybe because someone affiliated with Cleveland is planting it?

If I'm Ainge, I tell them to pound sand. And if they wheel Irving to another team, I file a grievance.

Here is just one local take today on a DC sports radio show of a former ESPNer:

Unless IT is irreparably damaged goods -- something IT has recently vehemently denied -- then this is a transparent, indefensible shakedown attempt. The only appropriate response: no mas.

Yes. The outlier here is not the Cavs doc failing IT on the physical. It's not even the Cavs doc failing IT on the physical despite prior knowledge of the injury (see Tyson Chandler trade, 2009). It's the doc failing him and Cleveland then not immediately calling off the trade but instead leaking that they want more assets and dragging out the resolution of the trade over a week

dcmissle · Aug 30, 2017

Which is why if Ainge extends this deadline by a nano-second, I will be surprised.

Ed Hillel · Aug 30, 2017

At this point, Danny should start considering value he'll get from the league office if Cleveland backs out and picks another deal. It really should be a first rounder at least. Using this as trade leverage is horseshit.

lovegtm · Aug 30, 2017

Van Everyman said:
Seems to me that the Bucks talk is in large part because Lowe discussed it in his column:

The discussion is coming from a Bleacher Report story that uses the Lowe article as its only source. The Lowe article made no suggestion that the Bucks were back in the picture, and only recapped the offer everyone knew about (Brogdon and Middleton plus a crappy first rounder).

It's total clickbait BS, and there's nothing to suggest it's coming from either of the teams involved.

slamminsammya · Aug 30, 2017

lovegtm said:
Similar incentive to win (high for both). The Lakers are just in a way more difficult conference.

Schedule differences between the conferences are minimal. It matters for playoff seeding, but for win totals its not a big deal. In particular, any two teams from different conferences only differ in 24 games out of 82, of which 8 are divisional games and 16 games from the rest of their respective conference.

The relative difference in strength of schedule over 25% of the season will only add up to a few games. It makes a difference but its not so large.

DJnVa · Aug 30, 2017

That's closer to a third of a season, but it's more than just the numbers. Playing better teams means less rest for your better players, tougher matchups, etc. Bad teams really don't have too many easy nights, but in the Lakers case there's a lot fewer chances for that.

The good thing is we'll get to actually watch it.

Also: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/kyrie-irving-saga-just-complete-the-deal-already.20638/page-9#post-2394342

I plan on avoiding this sub for a long time.

nighthob · Aug 30, 2017

slamminsammya said:
Schedule differences between the conferences are minimal. It matters for playoff seeding, but for win totals its not a big deal. In particular, any two teams from different conferences only differ in 24 games out of 82, of which 8 are divisional games and 16 games from the rest of their respective conference.

The relative difference in strength of schedule over 25% of the season will only add up to a few games. It makes a difference but its not so large.

The Western Conference could have 12 teams with 40+ wins next year. The East will have five. It makes a huge difference to be playing 52 games against the WC vs. 52 vs. the EC.

HomeRunBaker · Aug 30, 2017

bosox79 said:
I mentioned this a few months back, but I think the Celtics are higher on Yabu than Zizic. They brought him over from China for just a handful of D (now G) League games. If they weren't high on him, it doesn't seem like they would've bothered. Beyond that, Zizic has far more helium than Yabu and while he didn't hurt his stock in the summer league, he didn't exactly help it. He did show flashes but he looks limited. Yabu may be limited too but he has 3 point range, a long wingspan, that big butt and surprising athleticism. He won't be much more than a catch and shoot player in the NBA from what I've seen but that's all he needs to be. He did a lot of driving in China but I can't see that translating to the NBA at all. He's not very fluid bringing it to the rim.

edit: Honestly, he may get some burn this year if this Irving trade does go down and Theis isn't good.

I can't read anything into us bringing Yabu over once his China season was over......I mean what else would Ainge do, tell him "Nah that's ok you're good see you in the summer." Ainge is obviously high on him as he reached up into the first round to draft him but considering there were no other options for Yabu once his China season ended the only obvious choice was that he was going to return to the States and be with the organization.

Yabu/Zizic....Zizic/Yabu......both project to role players who do different things. It just seems like we have a lot of Yabu-types both on this team and in the league but few Zizic's.

Sam Ray Not · Aug 30, 2017

Tick, tick, tick.

Vaguely on topic, I'm not even that much of a sneaker geek, but the upcoming Bruce Lee / Kill Bill inspired Kyrie 3s are off the hook!

https://sneakernews.com/2017/08/28/nike-kyrie-3-bruce-lee-mamba-mentality-release-date/

Would be a killer combo with the classic Celtics-green unis...

Cesar Crespo · Aug 30, 2017

HomeRunBaker said:
Yabu/Zizic....Zizic/Yabu......both project to role players who do different things. It just seems like we have a lot of Yabu-types both on this team and in the league but few Zizic's.

Is that because there is a lack of Zizic's or because players like Yabu fit into today's game better? But yeah, with his small injury and having just played a full season, I'd figure they'd just call it a season. I read into it that he wanted to see him stateside and see what he can do against better competition. Which is probably true, and means they do like him... but they could very well like Zizic too.

Papelbon's Poutine · Aug 30, 2017

Sam Ray Not said:
Tick, tick, tick.

Vaguely on topic, I'm not even that much of a sneaker geek, but the upcoming Bruce Lee / Kill Bill inspired Kyrie 3s are off the hook!

https://sneakernews.com/2017/08/28/nike-kyrie-3-bruce-lee-mamba-mentality-release-date/

Would be a killer combo with the classic Celtics-green unis...

Those would look atrocious with Celtic green. They need to go back to black sneakers for everyone.

Captaincoop · Aug 30, 2017

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Those would look atrocious with Celtic green. They need to go back to black sneakers for everyone.

Agreed, but unfortunately that ship has sailed on the black shoes. The minute Red died, that rule went out the window.

At this point, I'm fine with him wearing plaid shoes if this deal can just be done.

Marbleheader · Aug 30, 2017

The kids care more about the shoes than the players.

axx · Aug 30, 2017

Are the Cavs really going to wait until tomorrow to make a decision?

Papelbon's Poutine · Aug 30, 2017

Captaincoop said:
Agreed, but unfortunately that ship has sailed on the black shoes. The minute Red died, that rule went out the window.

At this point, I'm fine with him wearing plaid shoes if this deal can just be done.

I know, and I agree this needs to be done, one way or the other.

Jimbodandy · Aug 30, 2017

Marbleheader said:
The kids care more about the shoes than the players.

And they won't get off our lawns.

ifmanis5 · Aug 30, 2017

I blame some of this on Adam. Deal of this magnitude and subsequent weirdness should not be aired in public for so long. Keep it tight and in house, man. This looks bad for everybody.

Eddie Jurak · Aug 30, 2017

Eddie Jurak · Aug 30, 2017

snowmanny · Aug 30, 2017

Doesn't that mean it's completed? Or are they seeking something besides compensation?

Edit: wait, just saw second tweet...so they really were trying to game the system? Not sure this was a great plan...

Papelbon's Poutine · Aug 30, 2017

ifmanis5 said:
I blame some of this on Adam. Deal of this magnitude and subsequent weirdness should not be aired in public for so long. Keep it tight and in house, man. This looks bad for everybody.

Meh? I have trouble blaming Silver on this. There's only so much he can do to prevent leaks. And frankly we're into tank commissioners he'd be at the top of the list. He doesn't have authoritative control over the teams and I expect Altman will be spoken to about this ordeal.

mcpickl · Aug 30, 2017

Sam Ray Not said:
Yeah, sorry, I think they're basically in the same category as the Nyets (though they could always try to "shoot the moon" for their #1 pick). All the other teams are in the tanker category.

And as lovegtm notes, while they may have marginally more incentive to win now than the Nets, and almost certainly have better overall talent, the brutality of the Western conference (where even nominal bubble teams like POR, DEN, LAC and UTA are stacked, and newly ascendant MIN and OKC should win 50+) may offset those factors.

No moon shooting, if the Lakers got the #1 pick it would belong to Philly.

No incentive for LA to tank.

DJnVa · Aug 30, 2017

Eddie Jurak said:

LOL.

New GM fail.

snowmanny · Aug 30, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
So what's the holdup now??

Well according to the second tweet the Cavs got the Celtics offer, accepted it and announced it to the world, knew IT was injured so then failed him on the physical, and then sat back to see if anyone would beat the offer while reserving the right to stop the C's deal if someone did. Seems a little far-fetched some GM could be that reckless though, so I'm not quite buying it...

Edit: assuming I am reading/interpreting it correctly.

E5 Yaz · Aug 30, 2017

Eddie Jurak said:

RedOctober3829 said:
So what's the holdup now??

Now they're trying to decide whether to void the trade

AimingForYoko · Aug 30, 2017

Eddie Jurak said:

Lmao what?

What a circus.

DJnVa · Aug 30, 2017

E5 Yaz said:
Now they're trying to decide whether to void the trade

Sarcasm not allowed.

snowmanny · Aug 30, 2017

E5 Yaz said:
Now they're trying to decide whether to void the trade

But didn't it read as if that would be based on whatever offers they received?

Kyrie Irving traded to Celtics for IT, Crowder, Zizic, BKN 1st, 2020 2nd

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