You don't wake up screaming? These are the Red Sox we are talking about. New Englanders -- especially those born before 1980 -- are programmed from birth to obsess over them.Yawn. Wake me up to panic on Friday, though, if the magic number hasn't shrunk.
Three races left now in the AL:With all AL teams having 6 games remaining we are down to 8 'races', 6 of which could end today.
Race: Leader>Chaser (Magic#)
2nd WC: Min>LAA (2)
2nd WC: Min>Tex (1)
2nd WC: Min>KCR (1)
2nd WC: Min>TBR (1)
1st WC: NYY>Min (2)
AL East: Bos>NYY (3)
ALDS2 Home field: Hou>Bos (2)
ALCS Home field: Cle>Hou (4)
Obviously, for the Sox the AL East is a serious goal worthy of doing whatever it takes to obtain. Beyond that it looks like getting home field in the ALDS is a pipe dream and influencing who takes the #1 seed for the playoffs is probably not worth the trouble. I'm for pulling up as soon as the division is clinched.
Note for WS home field the Sox trail the Nats by 4 games and lead the D'backs by 1 1/2 and the Cubs by 3.
If Houston is locked into the #2 spot when they play Boston this weekend, I think their focus will be on getting their rotation squared away for the playoffs, giving key guys some rest, etc. But it's not like they're gonna throw out all their AAA guys for four games. They'll still have starters in there, and they'll still need to get their good pitchers some work in order to stay sharp for the playoffs. The Sox, under no conditions, will be facing Houston's scrubs. And whoever is playing will play hard and try to have good at-bats and their pitchers, whoever is there, will try to get outs, and all four games will be tough.Still a pretty comfortable lead for the division but if we remain 3 ahead for the final 4 game series with the Astros one wonders how much of an effort the Astros make for the chance to face the Yankees (most likely) over the Red Sox, especially with Pom and Sale looking less dominant
What the heck are you talking about? The Yanks are 17-6 in their last 23 games...you call that getting "gifted" the division?The y are incredibly fortunate that the Yankees have underperformed their expected record and gifted them this division-leading cushion.
I think all he is saying is that the Sox' Pythagorean win % is just about equal to their actual win %, but the Yankees' Pythagorean win % is almost ten games better than their actual record. So by that metric, the Yankees have gotten pretty unlucky this season and "should" have won the division fairly easily. Of course, YMMV when it comes to Pythagorean win % and how much stock to put in that, but at least on Baseball Prospectus all their expected-record metrics have the Yankees as a significantly better team than the Red Sox.What the heck are you talking about? The Yanks are 17-6 in their last 23 games...you call that getting "gifted" the division?
I've always thought they should play the Super Bowl in Lambeau every year.I've always thought the World Series should join the Super Bowl as being held at a warm weather neutral location. Will probably never happen, but late October/early November is just too cold in the north, and I think the destination aspect of the Super Bowl contributes significantly to its popularity.
Except that by fWAR the Yankees (8.8) have the best bullpen in MLB whilst the Sox are 5th (7.0). By FIP they're closer with the Yankees 2nd (3.36) to the Indians (3.23) and the Sox 3rd (3.48) and in xFIP the Sox are 4th (3.76) just ahead of the 5th place Yankees (3.79). FanGraphs Team Relief StatsOne thing that can lead to over performing a pythag, according to BP, Bill James, etc, is a strong bullpen. I can't find a link, but I recall Bill James being asked by a Yankee fan, if the fact the Torre Yanks were outperforming their Pythag indicated Torre was in fact the greatest manager of everything forever. James said it was more likley Mariano Rivera being the best closer ever was the cause.
The Sox have done very well in extra inning games, and won a lot of close games due to bullpen strength. The Yankees pen has let a few more slip away.
To quote Manny Ramirez: "Why should we panic?" They played fantastic baseball for the better part of a month, hadn't lost a series till yesterday since the first week of September. I don't think they have the weapons to have an amazing postseason (though you just never know), especially as it looks like injuries are piling up here, but I DO think they have enough left to win a couple times, and that will probably be enough. Team has proven over and over they don't quit.You don't wake up screaming? These are the Red Sox we are talking about. New Englanders -- especially those born before 1980 -- are programmed from birth to obsess over them.
In other words, it happens a lot.There have only been 4 times this year where the Yankees have made up 3 games in a 5 game stretch: Apr 14, Apr 28, May 7, and the bad stretch at end of July.
How does smoke and mirrors actually work? There must be some history behind this cliche. Can my son use them to get into a better college?This team has been smoke and mirrors all year, and I fear that right at the end, here, the smoke is clearing and the mirror is cracked.
You could also argue that they just made up two games so that's one more to make up. Now, can they make up five games in a seven game stretch? That's the question.In other words, it happens a lot.
That may have been the question two games ago, but not anymore, unless I'm severely confused. If I throw a coin twice and it comes up tails both times, that doesn't make it any less likely that my next throw will come up tails.You could also argue that they just made up two games so that's one more to make up. Now, can they make up five games in a seven game stretch? That's the question.
GUILDENSTERN: Heads. He keeps flipping the coin. Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads … Heads …He throws it up again, and Rosencrantz catches it, looks at the coin and throws it back to Guildenstern. Heads. Rosencrantz gets a coin out of his purse and flips it, covering it with has hand. Bet. Heads, I win. Rosencrantz looks at the coin, says nothing, and throws it to Guildenstern, who covers it with his hand. Again. Guildenstern looks at the coin. Heads. Rosencrantz gets out another coin.That may have been the question two games ago, but not anymore, unless I'm severely confused. If I throw a coin twice and it comes up tails both times, that doesn't make it any less likely that my next throw will come up tails.
Let me Google that for you.How does smoke and mirrors actually work? There must be some history behind this cliche. Can my son use them to get into a better college?
This might be a philosophical question. Can you dispose of the two that happened already? I say no, because the players themselves are carrying the experience of having had the two game shift, and whatever that does psychologically. If we were talking about flipping coins, then maybe what happened last time truly doesn't matter.That may have been the question two games ago, but not anymore, unless I'm severely confused. If I throw a coin twice and it comes up tails both times, that doesn't make it any less likely that my next throw will come up tails.
To put it another way, by making up two games in two days, the Yankees have already disposed of the difference in likelihood between making up 3 in 5 and 5 in 7. What remains is simply the probability of making up 3 in 5.
Thank you! So if either my son or I am an Aztec god, we can probably use smoke and mirrors to get him into college.
Yeah, that was way too long to be an E5 originalWell, Stoppard's brilliant. I just cut and paste
Out of curiosity, what should he be doing to "setup for the post season" that you think he won't be doing?I'm on the half full end of the spectrum, although I dearly wish our magic number was at two this morning. I am worried that Farrell will not get the team properly setup for the post season if he's still messing around during the final series.
I would say mostly resting guys, but also testing out called up players to get them comfortable in special roles - PH, PR, practicing plays, etc. Same for the bullpen. Same for coaching tweaks. Best for that to happen in "meaningless" live games against MLB talent.Out of curiosity, what should he be doing to "setup for the post season" that you think he won't be doing?
Because frankly, other than giving dinged-up guys like Pedroia, Nunez, Betts, and Hanley down time to more quickly recover from whatever ails them, I'm not sure what exactly he should be doing. With three off-days between the final regular season game and the first ALDS game (assuming of course that they do clinch the division), resting players for the sake of rest or lining up the rotation are minor needs at this point. Basically, as long as things are locked up before Sunday so they can hold Sale out (or at least cut his pitch count to "side session" length), everything else can be accomplished during the break.
Hopefully, we get the same Eduardo Rodriguez tonight who shut down the Reds. Brad Peacock has been pretty solid lately so it may be a low-scoring game.Heading into the final series, the we need to go 1-3 and the Yankees need to go 4-0 to tie the division. Half full still
I'm not about to start posting "it's over" or "what game should I go to to watch the clinch" though...2011 isn't that far away
My guess would be that the average team that clinches with plenty of time to spare is significantly better than the average team that plays to the very end of the season. It would this be difficult to compare without a lot of adjusting for that intrinsic quality difference. I would guess a way to backdoor would be to look at the performance of teams who win a series quickly compared to the teams that play maximum games in a series.I would say mostly resting guys, but also testing out called up players to get them comfortable in special roles - PH, PR, practicing plays, etc. Same for the bullpen. Same for coaching tweaks
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Perhaps it does not, although conventional wisdom would be that teams who have enough time to set themselves up for post season play do better. Has anyone researched that?
With the ALDS starting on Thursday, you can set up your rotation as long as you've clinched before Sunday's finale.My guess would be that the average team that clinches with plenty of time to spare is significantly better than the average team that plays to the very end of the season. It would this be difficult to compare without a lot of adjusting for that intrinsic quality difference. I would guess a way to backdoor would be to look at the performance of teams who win a series quickly compared to the teams that play maximum games in a series.
It's intuitive that teams that clinches early can do the two most important things, though... Rest guys with nagging injuries and set up the rotation.
With the ALDS starting on Thursday, you can set up your rotation as long as you've clinched before Sunday's finale.
That "lose the next three but clinch on Sunday" scenario would mean that all the regulars start the next four games (including playing the entire Sunday game, but excepting a B-squad punt if they're blown out at any point). Also, there would be sparing the bullpen - but the arms most likely to be used post-season would be the ones Farrell would go to first (again, excepting a mop-up during a blowout.)The worst case scenario (assuming no 163rd game for the division) is that Sale has to pitch for real on Sunday to win the division. Assuming he wins the division, it certainly affects who would pitch Game 1, as Sale would then have only 3 days rest, Sale would be on either 4 or 5 days rest for game 5 (and would unable to pitch game 4) no matter whether he pitches game 1(5) or game 2(4), since there's off days after 2 and 4. Assuming no one goes on short rest, pitchers who didn't start 1 or 2 are going to have to start 3 and 4 (Erod/Porcello/Fister).
If they all really shit the bed and they have to play the WC game on Tuesday, I guess it would be Erod on 4days' rest?
If they shit the bed only slightly less and have to play the NYY for the division on Monday, then I guess its Porcello (assuming Sale pitched and failed Sunday)? [/shudder]
Baseball Prospectus has the Sox at 96.3% to win the A.L. East though it's not clear to me that this doesn't also include their chance of winning a game if it ends up tied after 162.a question for those who know where to look this stuff up:
what is the win probability for the division going into tonight not including the potential Monday play-in/play-off game between the Red Sox & Yankees?
I'm pretty sure this (the first part) isn't actually true.We really require a win tonight. And maybe we can stop giving up mammoth home runs for just a game or two.
Always be two moves ahead of your opponent. Positively Belichickian!!I, for one, am really impressed with the intricate strategy they've employed. Once they knew they'd win the division almost no matter what following the monster 8-1 road trip, Farrell instructed the troops to start tanking. The pitchers held back and saved their strength for next week, the batters relaxed and stopped trying to stress themselves out getting runs across all in an effort to be on peak form when it mattered most. The net result is that Houston will be supremely overconfident, thinking they know how to hit our pitchers when in fact they have no idea what they're in for. Brilliant!
Obviously this is kind of tongue in cheek, but I think there could actually be some truth in here. This team has been pretty streaky all year. Get the bad stuff out of the system this week, reduce expectations (last year EVERYONE picked the Sox to like sweep the Tribe; this year no one will pick them in the first round), hell maybe even Houston will take them a bit lightly given last night's pounding.I, for one, am really impressed with the intricate strategy they've employed. Once they knew they'd win the division almost no matter what following the monster 8-1 road trip, Farrell instructed the troops to start tanking. The pitchers held back and saved their strength for next week, the batters relaxed and stopped trying to stress themselves out getting runs across all in an effort to be on peak form when it mattered most. The net result is that Houston will be supremely overconfident, thinking they know how to hit our pitchers when in fact they have no idea what they're in for. Brilliant!
It's weird after the way they played this week and the way that the Yankees have scored pretty easily that the Sox are in better position to win the division in the regular season today then they were at the end of the road trip -- one in six things to go for them as opposed to 3 in 14.Fangraphs
https://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=AL&div=E&stat=div&year=2017
The win yesterday brought them from 95.6% to 97.0%. Or to look at it differently, it cut the Yankees odds of a division win by a third, from 4.4% to 3.0%
Even if all six games are (on average) 70% shots for NYY/HOU, that's still an 88.2% chance they drop at least one game. But yeah, fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc. Hoping for a merciful implosion by Tanaka this afternoon so we can all celebrate after work.I suppose if you view each of those six things as a coin flip, the chance they will all be tails is pretty low but I'm not sure they are all a coin flip.
But your gut feeling that this situation isn't quite as good is correct, statistically...apparently. Fangraphs had them at 99.6% to win the division after Sunday. A mere 98.8% today (and down from 98.9% the day before despite the magic number dropping). I'm not sure where that comes from entirely given 3/14 versus 1/6, but (without being able to delve into the statistics) it's probably something like "one team sweeps and one team swept happens" statistically whereas "pretty close to one team double sweeps, one team double swept" doesn't really happen. So many more chances to get that number down...well, hopefully one of the outcomes we want happens today, and that's that.It's weird after the way they played this week and the way that the Yankees have scored pretty easily that the Sox are in better position to win the division in the regular season today then they were at the end of the road trip -- one in six things to go for them as opposed to 3 in 14.