Yeah with how banged up many of their important players are, an “early” clinch could end up being really important.
Yeah, I'm never really sure where those numbers come from. I think fans of a team in question will always view it differently either because they know their team better or they are lunatics, the latter of which may be the case for me. My gut concern is pretty straightforward. First, so long as we haven't clinched, it's unlikely we'll be playing the Astros in a game that is meaningless from their perspective. As long as they win, their games remain meaningful for them at least until potentially game 162. And, obviously, if they don't win, the games becomes meaningless for us. In other words, we are not likely to get a game against a resting Astros, unless we've clinched in which case we don't care. Second, when I think about potential final scores today, 10-4 Astros and 7-1 Yankees doesn't seem like much of a stretch to imagine. And, if that happens, no matter what the experts say using various statistical models, division tie starts to seem very likely.But your gut feeling that this situation isn't quite as good is correct, statistically...apparently. Fangraphs had them at 99.6% to win the division after Sunday. A mere 98.8% today (and down from 98.9% the day before despite the magic number dropping). I'm not sure where that comes from entirely given 3/14 versus 1/6, but (without being able to delve into the statistics) it's probably something like "one team sweeps and one team swept happens" statistically whereas "pretty close to one team double sweeps, one team double swept" doesn't really happen. So many more chances to get that number down...well, hopefully one of the outcomes we want happens today, and that's that.
I'm not 100% sure, but I think Fangraphs takes opponents remaining into account when calculating their percentages. Houston being statistically a better team than the Red Sox while the Jays are statistically inferior to the Yankees might account for the slight dip in their estimation of the Red Sox's likelihood of clinching the division.But your gut feeling that this situation isn't quite as good is correct, statistically...apparently. Fangraphs had them at 99.6% to win the division after Sunday. A mere 98.8% today (and down from 98.9% the day before despite the magic number dropping). I'm not sure where that comes from entirely given 3/14 versus 1/6, but (without being able to delve into the statistics) it's probably something like "one team sweeps and one team swept happens" statistically whereas "pretty close to one team double sweeps, one team double swept" doesn't really happen. So many more chances to get that number down...well, hopefully one of the outcomes we want happens today, and that's that.
That didn't happen, but I am at peace with whatever happens. If they cannot win 1 of 3 and the remaining two go the Yankees way, the Red Sox will have earned the shit sandwich. That Being, having to burn one starter in a game for the division, and another starter in a WC game if they lose the playoff to the Yankees. And if that's where this lands, then any chance to go very far will have proven to be illusory. This would be neither quick nor merciful. I'm sitting here hoping with every pitch that it does not happen.Even if all six games are (on average) 70% shots for NYY/HOU, that's still an 88.2% chance they drop at least one game. But yeah, fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc. Hoping for a merciful implosion by Tanaka this afternoon so we can all celebrate after work.
But do we deserve the subsequent press conference with Farrell praising Chili Davis?If that line continues through the end of the season(and the Yankees win out) they deserve the game with the twins
Alex cora or Tek will be the managerBut do we deserve the subsequent press conference with Farrell praising Chili Davis?
Well if you want to make the numbers keep looking shitier, then you should take the bullpen ERA from today out too.the 4 runs a game is misleading due to the one game where we scored a bunch of runs, take that out and the numbers are shittier
I'm mainly talking about offensive numbers.... Im not worried about our BP.... Our BP has been pretty strong all season.... We won't go far in the playoffs if we have an impotent lineup vs good (not great) pitchersWell if you want to make the numbers keep looking shitier, then you should take the bullpen ERA from today out too.
why is it a collapse? this is who they are. take away the ridiculous extra inning W-L record and theya re the 4th or 5th best team in the AL. Look at Houston/Cleveland/Yankees lineups and starting rotations versus Boston. Betts is only guy who clearly starts for the Astros, maybe Vaz. Taht's it. Sale is the only guy who clearly makes the starting rotation. do the same analysis with Cleveland or NYY? The Sox are just not as good as those teams. Their advantage has been in the bullpen only. Normalize their extra inning W-L record and they are an 85-86 win team competing with 100+ win teams (Yankees are more like 95-96 win team)This collapse seems inevitable.
What will be the "chicked and beer" story to assign blame at the end of the year?
Ownership, and specifically the guy "who runs the Red Sox", wanted to blame 11 on someone, and they deployed Bob Hohler so effectively that six years later we're blaming the media. It was Larry. Never Forget.My point is the media wanted somebody to blame in 11 "and it got ugly. If the Sox don't win the division and lose the play in game there will be noise, fair or not.
Considering neither team has anything to play for today, I don't expect anyone will sow anything with the outcome of the game. I expect it will be either be a AAA lineup for both sides or it will be treated like an early spring training game with the starters exiting after 1 or 2 ABs. Most of the players that contribute to a win or loss today probably won't be on either roster come Thursday.I think it would be excellent to win the last game against HOU, just to sow some doubt in their minds that beating the Sox in the ALDS is not guaranteed. But the more important psychological benefit would be in the minds of the Sox young team that they can hang with the mighty Astros (I can't believe I just typed that given the Astros long and dominant team history - lol).
The markets will drive the decision-making, more likely than not. With the largest getting the primetime slot. So if the Yankees win the wildcard game, I can see their game at Cleveland being the primetime game (~8pm) with the Sox and Astros playing in the early afternoon (~4pm). If it's the Twins, I can see that flip-flopping...Houston/Boston markets top Cleveland/Minneapolis.Any forecasts or speculation about the times for the Sox first two games? Could it be as simple as the first two games will be the late games (Houston v. Cleveland/Central v. Eastern time zones)?
Houston was dead last in mlb at around 12% at throwing out base runners (Sox were second around 38%). I really hope the Sox exploit this. They aren't going to score runs in bunches via the HR, so they'll have to find other ways.This is a pretty good team for post-season baseball. We have an ace, a lights-out pen, good speed, and good defense except at 3B. The last two games have shown me that the D.S. could be a coin flip. Benintendi will have to turn it around. To me, he's the key. I think Fister starts game 3, and I feel confident that he will give a poised, professional performance. It'll be interesting to see if Farrell starts Hanley at DH, or if Nunez fills that role. It's difficult to justify keeping Nuney out of the line-up if he can swing and run. There are a lot of ways to get him into the lineup including DHing Devers, or even benching Pedroia.
Sadly that gives me a 2003 Marlins feel.NYY went 20-8 in Sept. Putting that in perspective the 2011 Rays went 17-10.
And the Sox never let them get closer than 2 games. Wow. What a classic Sept.
Count me as half full. While the Sox won't be favored in any match-up (excepting the very unlikely event of facing Minnesota), they've got a reasonable chance of winning a short series. Win two and they're in the world series. Get knocked out in one, and they probably get a new manager. Win, win.
Playoff glass is definitely half empty. Injuries and underperforming offense.... starting pitching looks weaker than Houston lately....A Monday without baseball is depressing... but not nearly as depressing as it would have been had we been forced to play game 163.
Time to toast with our half-full glasses, chug, and refill it for the post season.
Only question now... do we refill it half full or half empty?
This has been my perspective all along. Just last year we looked at the Indians' rotation and thought they had no real shot against the Red Sox. Well.... look what happened. It wasn't even miraculous. They were just better.The Sox were 3-3 against the Astros (I throw out the meaningless game they played yesterday) and 4-3 against the Indians this year. I simply don't understand the view that they need some sort of miracle or a great deal of luck to win a 5 or 7 game series against either team.
I'm not going to argue that they can definitely beat either team in a series, but they're not some David vs Goliath type underdog either. No team is unbeatable in October.
The problem last year wasn't a question of rotation matchups, it was that the Red Sox hitters collectively stopped doing their jobs in the last week of September after being great all season.This has been my perspective all along. Just last year we looked at the Indians' rotation and thought they had no real shot against the Red Sox. Well.... look what happened. It wasn't even miraculous. They were just better.
Absolutely the Red Sox could take 3 of 5 or 4 of 7 against ANY team in baseball. Without miracles needing to happen. Just normal baseball stuff like.... a little wildness, bloop hits, a ball curling foul instead of fair, etc.
In those three games the Sox were outscored 31 runs to 19.The Sox were 3-3 against the Astros
Take away the 12 to 2 loss, and it’s 19 to 17 in the other games. One blowout skews those numbers.In those three games the Sox were outscored 31 runs to 19.
Also the Astros pitcher for the two wins at Houston were Mike Fiers and Joe Musgrove, who are probably the 7th and 8th best starters on the Houston roster.
And as for the Indians games...yeah they already were extremely lucky to win 4 of 7. Remember the game when Moreland struck out for what should have been the final out? Or when Doug Fister somehow pitched a one-hitter? Those are the kind of miracles they'd need again.
Farrell's not going anywhere. I can see Chili getting replaced, but barring some bonehead managerial brain-fart in the D.S.,(a la he-who-shall-not-be-named in '03) Farrell's back to back division titles will put him back in the dugout next April. He did a good job with the pen all year, and the guys simply didn't hit. Put Shaw and Encarnacion on this team and you're probably looking at 100 wins.Who replaces Farrell if he's canned? Gary DiScarcina might be the next Torey Lovullo, but I'm more than a little skeptical of any rookie manager taking this job.
This.He did a good job with the pen all year, and the guys simply didn't hit. Put Shaw and Encarnacion on this team and you're probably looking at 100 wins.
I have to agree because Farrell outperformed the Pythag with no hitting stars and managed to coach the team to be aggressive and good defensively and take advantage of the hitting they did get to score just enough runs to beat the Yanks.This.
I'm not the biggest Farrell fan, but in my book he's coming out ahead here in a year where the lineup core was exposed as being overrated going in. There is zero chance he still wins this division anyway and then loses his job just because Mookie Betts and co might not be as good outside the 2016 season as some people had hoped and projected them out to be.
...Sox seem to outscore other teams dramatically after the 2nd inning. Particularly in the late innings.
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