It seems like this debate is taking place across a few different threads, none of which are specifically devoted to the question of where we want more power to come from in the 2018 lineup. Here are B-Ref pages for the three guys most often mentioned: JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer.
To be honest, Martinez seems like a no-brainer -- and I can't imagine why we'd want either Stanton or Hosmer instead.
1. Martinez is far less injury-prone than Stanton, as others have discussed elsewhere. But it's not clear that Stanton is even a better hitter when healthy.
Oh, and for what it's worth:
2. Stanton would cost prospects; Martinez and Hosmer would not. Meanwhile, Stanton is due $77 million over the next three years, and then another $218 million over the subsequent eight assuming he doesn't opt out of his contract. We can debate what Martinez would get in free agency, but even if he got the Cespedes deal (4/$110) plus a fifth year, he's much less likely to become a Miguel Cabrera-esque albatross (and, by the way, I can't believe anyone would actually want the original Cabrera albatross!).
3. JD Martinez is a well-below-average defensive outfielder -- and I actually think that works in our favor. Because we can DH him, we don't mind his terrible defense the way other teams who would need him to wear a glove every day should. He's worth more to us than he is to any NL team and any AL team without a hole at DH. No such discount for Stanton or Hosmer.
4. Assuming we can only get one of these guys, what does each mean for the rest of the roster? Sign Hosmer, and we still need a DH, preferably a RH one (Benintendi, Devers, and Hosmer should all be in or near the heart of the lineup): Assuming that Hanley Ramirez is that DH makes it more likely he triggers his 2019 option, which we don't want. Sign Martinez, though, and you can still trade for Justin Bour, or you can re-sign Moreland -- a perfectly adequate 1B option who hits well at Fenway and has experience in Boston -- for a reasonable cost to fill out the lineup. Hanley still plays plenty: at DH when one of the OF needs a day off and we suffer through Martinez in LF, at 1B against lefties, pinch-hitting, etc. Just not 500 PA worth.
I dunno. To me, deciding to win the bidding for JD Martinez seems like a no-brainer approach to the situation.
To be honest, Martinez seems like a no-brainer -- and I can't imagine why we'd want either Stanton or Hosmer instead.
1. Martinez is far less injury-prone than Stanton, as others have discussed elsewhere. But it's not clear that Stanton is even a better hitter when healthy.
OPS+, by year, 2013-2017:
MARTINEZ: 79, 154, 139, 142, 166
STANTON: 131, 164, 159, 119, 165
MARTINEZ: 79, 154, 139, 142, 166
STANTON: 131, 164, 159, 119, 165
Oh, and for what it's worth:
HOSMER: 118, 99, 122, 102, 132
2. Stanton would cost prospects; Martinez and Hosmer would not. Meanwhile, Stanton is due $77 million over the next three years, and then another $218 million over the subsequent eight assuming he doesn't opt out of his contract. We can debate what Martinez would get in free agency, but even if he got the Cespedes deal (4/$110) plus a fifth year, he's much less likely to become a Miguel Cabrera-esque albatross (and, by the way, I can't believe anyone would actually want the original Cabrera albatross!).
3. JD Martinez is a well-below-average defensive outfielder -- and I actually think that works in our favor. Because we can DH him, we don't mind his terrible defense the way other teams who would need him to wear a glove every day should. He's worth more to us than he is to any NL team and any AL team without a hole at DH. No such discount for Stanton or Hosmer.
4. Assuming we can only get one of these guys, what does each mean for the rest of the roster? Sign Hosmer, and we still need a DH, preferably a RH one (Benintendi, Devers, and Hosmer should all be in or near the heart of the lineup): Assuming that Hanley Ramirez is that DH makes it more likely he triggers his 2019 option, which we don't want. Sign Martinez, though, and you can still trade for Justin Bour, or you can re-sign Moreland -- a perfectly adequate 1B option who hits well at Fenway and has experience in Boston -- for a reasonable cost to fill out the lineup. Hanley still plays plenty: at DH when one of the OF needs a day off and we suffer through Martinez in LF, at 1B against lefties, pinch-hitting, etc. Just not 500 PA worth.
I dunno. To me, deciding to win the bidding for JD Martinez seems like a no-brainer approach to the situation.