I was stating that in comparison to the expected notion that there was ever a chance JDM was going to end up here at 5/$100m without an opt out.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m delighted if this turns out to be a 2/50 contract. That’s what we’re all rooting for, right? Because if it turns out to be a 5/110, then that means he wasn’t worth that much on the market.
I don't understand your previous under-enthusiasmic reactions then, because if you wanted 5/125 and it's 5/110 with the option of him playing so well in that first 2 years he actually decides to make it 2/50 (potentially) then, how is that worse?
I get that, but you’re basing your judgment of DD based on chat board speculation and leaked rumors. It’s not exactly a strong base to say someone folded or blinked. We know Boras was publicly asking for 7/$200+. He settled for 5/&110. If you consider an option a plus or minus is kind of irrelevant when assessing how well he did, since we have no idea if he had one on the table from the start or not. We also know he was the one that insisted on it Price’s deal.
What if the market is exactly like it is this year, but he's two years old and 2 years further removed from being a bad outfielder?
Ha, he really does not want to be here, but since we offered the most money by far he will do it, and hope he can escape after 2 or 3 years.
So if he opts out after year 2, AAV resets to 25M. If he opts out after year 3, AAV resets to 24M. Sox will want to maintain a 3M buffer under the top luxury tax threshold for planning purposes.
maybe not, hired mercenary etc., but it's Cora's job to integrate him with the team.
Yeah, 2/60 would have been great. It’s the $90 million in additional guaranteed money that the Sox had to pay to get the 2/50 deal that I don’t like. 5/125 would cost more but I’d rather the Sox pay $15 million to capture upside than guarantee $90 million to get two years.
MikeM: You're a top shelf poster, IMO. But you're moving some goalposts here, and I think it's fair to (gently) call you out.
My prediction? Holt.
How does dealing Holt play into the Martinez-Ramirez-Moreland-Benintendi-Bradley traffic jam?
Hate to break this to you ... but this means he's set to be on the Red Sox for the next two seasons.
One interesting lesson from all of this is that the JDM/Boras grossly overestimated the market for JDM this year (I mean, they went from 7/210 to 5/110, which is only slightly more total value than the Boston initial offer, excluding these opt-outs). I suspect the two opt-outs are to provide security for when JDM opts out; the lack of a fit this season was obvious from the start. Only a handful of competitors needed an elite bat-only player, including the red sox.
I believe he's always been a guy that hits to all fields as opposed to a pull power hitter. Not only was Chase field probably "hot" to RF, but we have to keep in mind that the cold weather at Fenway in April/May can suppress HRs. Thus, the balls won't necessarily land in the same spots when hitting in a dome compared to Fenway. I can picture him poking some balls out to RF at Yankee Stadium quite easily though.
I haven't even digested the idea of this contract with 2 opt outs long enough to form an overall opinion on it yet. Other then the fact, and which I believe you yourself were in the same boat, I wasn't really rooting on the general idea of adding JDM on to our books to begin with.
I guess it’s setting up to be a straight Hanley/Moreland 1B platoon with Martinez at DH for now. Injuries have a way of sorting things sometimes.
DH: Martinez 450 PA, Ramirez 200 PA
JDM has elite batted ball velocity. He's not as good a complete hitter as prime-aged Manny Ramirez, but he has that kind of opposite field power. He'll put balls in bullpens.
This deal further cements Ben Cherington's prior signings as...well...bad. Even without the power of hindsight. Hanley Ramirez was 4 years for 88, while Pablo was 5 for 95.
