DD would obviously like to stay below the highest CBT threshold. But I think this is not just to avoid the tax and penalties for exceeding it again, because I doubt ownership has given him any such mandate. I think it's maybe not as much about 2019 as it is maintaining payroll flexibility for 2020 and 2021 - giving a big four or five year deal to Kimbrel limits what he can offer to the FAs coming up in the next two years. And he may think, or hope, that use of the internal bullpen options will be a better use of resources, if not for 2019 then for the following years, when Feltman and Lakins could make significant contributions. Or he'd rather see how think shake out before making a commitment that he knows will limit his future options.
So that leads me to wonder whether DD may try to snag one of these guys on a one-year deal with a big AAV. For Kimbrel, it would probably mean at least $18m, so that it exceeds the QO he turned down. I wonder if he would consider that, if the market continues to be slow and the best he can do is a three or four year deal at $13-14m per year. It would let him re-establish his value after a (relatively speaking) down year, and he would not be burdened by a QO next year. Or maybe 2/34?
I really think it's the number of years, more so than AAV, that may be DD's big concern.