It's not every day that you trade away a "Mookie Betts" and end up with a player who might have an even better name.
Like many here, I am not happy about the decision to trade Mookie, but unlike some of you, it seems to me that this was a very solid return under the circumstances. In particular, we got a lot of upside. I'll leave it to someone else to start a thread on Verdugo's potential between the foul lines, but I think Brusdar Graterol is exactly the kind of player we need to be collecting, because he has the ceiling of a legitimate number one starter. I like Mata, Houck and Thad Ward as much as anyone, but those guys have back-end rotation potential. I like Song and Groome as well, and they do have very high upside, but it's unclear if health or the US Navy will allow them to reach their potential. So I think it's safe to say that we don't have much of that kind of upside in the system. After this trade, we have a lot more.
I wrote in the other thread that I thought Graterol might be the centerpiece of our return for the trade. This isn't to slight Verdugo. Verdugo is a year removed from being a consensus top prospect (BA #35, MLB #35, BP #19) who put up 3.1 rWAR/2.2 fWAR in 377 PA as a rookie (over 650 PA, that would be 5.1/3.8). That's an All Star caliber level of play. (He might also be an immature jerk, or worse.) Trading one year of an MVP-type player for a young player who only needs to maintain a level he's already demonstrated to be an above-average regular and isn't a FA until after the 2025 season is a good return by itself — if he's actually healthy. (I assume they're confident about the medicals.) Perhaps I should revise my claim for Graterol to "co-centerpiece."
But I do honestly think Graterol has a chance to be more valuable, which is saying I think he has a real chance to be a legit SP#1 type. While I'm not alone in that belief, it is not a universal opinion, which his pre-'19 prospect rankings reflect (BA #55, MLB #68, BP #33). In particular, there is a sense that he may only be a late-inning reliever, which is how the Twins used him late in the season as they made their AL Central push, and there is also a sense that they felt that the health of his shoulder limited him to that role. After 9.2 IP as a September call up, he threw a scoreless 1-2-3 inning in the playoffs against NY, with two strikeouts.
But I imagine the Red Sox will try him again as a starter. He has a good starter's build — he's just a huuuuge, sturdy dude, 6'1", 265 — and the makings of a starter's repertoire. He throws two fastballs, both at 99: a two-seam sinker with some real movement and a straighter four-seamer. He also throws a slider at 89 that is well-regarded, and an acceptable change up with two-seam movement at 91. Out of the pen, he mostly threw the sinker and the slider, with a few changeups to keep lefties honest. I've also read that there's a curveball, but he didn't throw it in the majors.
The sinker breaks eight-plus inches to the arm side; the slider breaks eleven-plus to the glove side. His stuff is just fantastic.
In the minors, he did a good job keeping the ball on the ground (48.8%-64% in all of the meaningful samples) and avoiding walks, while racking up a not-crazy-but-good number of strikeouts.
But here's the bottom line, as I see it. Graterol is going to be 21. He's pitched in the majors, but I would likely want him to do half a season as a starter inWorcester uhh, Pawtucket. He throws 99, touching 101. He has two good and maybe another viable secondary pitches. He can hold his velocity deep into games. His walk rate is good. In his 10 MLB innings, he lived in the zone but didn't get killed. That's rare. Prospects who are that young, with that kind of stuff, and that kind of command...
Maybe he should lose ten pounds; maybe his shoulder impingement is a concern. But if he had no question marks, he wouldn't be available for Kenta Maeda. Prospects with ace upside don't generally change hands. He can't become a FA until after 2026 at the earliest.
What do you guys see here? What do you think? What should we do with Brusdar? Keep him in the 'pen? Start him in AAA? Slot him into the Red Sox rotation?
Like many here, I am not happy about the decision to trade Mookie, but unlike some of you, it seems to me that this was a very solid return under the circumstances. In particular, we got a lot of upside. I'll leave it to someone else to start a thread on Verdugo's potential between the foul lines, but I think Brusdar Graterol is exactly the kind of player we need to be collecting, because he has the ceiling of a legitimate number one starter. I like Mata, Houck and Thad Ward as much as anyone, but those guys have back-end rotation potential. I like Song and Groome as well, and they do have very high upside, but it's unclear if health or the US Navy will allow them to reach their potential. So I think it's safe to say that we don't have much of that kind of upside in the system. After this trade, we have a lot more.
I wrote in the other thread that I thought Graterol might be the centerpiece of our return for the trade. This isn't to slight Verdugo. Verdugo is a year removed from being a consensus top prospect (BA #35, MLB #35, BP #19) who put up 3.1 rWAR/2.2 fWAR in 377 PA as a rookie (over 650 PA, that would be 5.1/3.8). That's an All Star caliber level of play. (He might also be an immature jerk, or worse.) Trading one year of an MVP-type player for a young player who only needs to maintain a level he's already demonstrated to be an above-average regular and isn't a FA until after the 2025 season is a good return by itself — if he's actually healthy. (I assume they're confident about the medicals.) Perhaps I should revise my claim for Graterol to "co-centerpiece."
But I do honestly think Graterol has a chance to be more valuable, which is saying I think he has a real chance to be a legit SP#1 type. While I'm not alone in that belief, it is not a universal opinion, which his pre-'19 prospect rankings reflect (BA #55, MLB #68, BP #33). In particular, there is a sense that he may only be a late-inning reliever, which is how the Twins used him late in the season as they made their AL Central push, and there is also a sense that they felt that the health of his shoulder limited him to that role. After 9.2 IP as a September call up, he threw a scoreless 1-2-3 inning in the playoffs against NY, with two strikeouts.
But I imagine the Red Sox will try him again as a starter. He has a good starter's build — he's just a huuuuge, sturdy dude, 6'1", 265 — and the makings of a starter's repertoire. He throws two fastballs, both at 99: a two-seam sinker with some real movement and a straighter four-seamer. He also throws a slider at 89 that is well-regarded, and an acceptable change up with two-seam movement at 91. Out of the pen, he mostly threw the sinker and the slider, with a few changeups to keep lefties honest. I've also read that there's a curveball, but he didn't throw it in the majors.
The sinker breaks eight-plus inches to the arm side; the slider breaks eleven-plus to the glove side. His stuff is just fantastic.
In the minors, he did a good job keeping the ball on the ground (48.8%-64% in all of the meaningful samples) and avoiding walks, while racking up a not-crazy-but-good number of strikeouts.
But here's the bottom line, as I see it. Graterol is going to be 21. He's pitched in the majors, but I would likely want him to do half a season as a starter in
Maybe he should lose ten pounds; maybe his shoulder impingement is a concern. But if he had no question marks, he wouldn't be available for Kenta Maeda. Prospects with ace upside don't generally change hands. He can't become a FA until after 2026 at the earliest.
What do you guys see here? What do you think? What should we do with Brusdar? Keep him in the 'pen? Start him in AAA? Slot him into the Red Sox rotation?
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