Yeah, that's extraordinary in what is supposed to a distressed market.Hasn’t had a healthy season in forever. That’s a great deal...for Richards.
He was healthy last season. Yeah, it was a short year, but he pitched the whole season and was pretty good.Hasn’t had a healthy season in forever. That’s a great deal...for Richards.
The 76.1 innings were in 2018, but your point still holds. Looks like a rich contract for such a speculative bet.That's a lot to lay out for a guy who hasn't pitched more than 76.1 innings in a season since 2015. Someone in the organization must be really high on him.
ERA+ of 106 so he was slightly better than league average by that metric. The odds of him pitching 150+ innings this year seem pretty remote based on his recent history. Hopefully he can pitch well and be dealt for prospects in the summer.He was healthy last season. Yeah, it was a short year, but he pitched the whole season and was pretty good.
Looks like they aren't expecting very much out of Chris Sale this year.
He had TJ surgery in 2019 - and that injury in one form or another sidelined him for the seasons prior to that. (He opted for stem-cell treatment which obviously didn't work.)That's a lot to lay out for a guy who hasn't pitched more than 76.1 innings in a season since 2015. Someone in the organization must be really high on him.
Isn't the best case scenario that he pitches extraordinarily well for us for the next two years?Best case scenario is Richards pitches extraordinarily well and is flipped for a nice haul at the deadline. The second year option would allow Boston to get a bit more considering he may not be a rental for the acquiring team, provided it is a team option.
Interesting definition of “Best Case Scenario”!Best case scenario is Richards pitches extraordinarily well and is flipped for a nice haul at the deadline. The second year option would allow Boston to get a bit more considering he may not be a rental for the acquiring team, provided it is a team option.
I don’t think the early offseason expectations that the FA market would be lower than prior years have actually materialized. It’s been slow, but most of the deals that have been signed have been comparable to prior years.Yeah, that's extraordinary in what is supposed to a distressed market.
His breakout 2014 season was cut short after tearing his left patellar tendon at Fenway:He had TJ surgery in 2019 - and that injury in one form or another sidelined him for the seasons prior to that. (He opted for stem-cell treatment which obviously didn't work.)
2020 was his first post-TJ season.
I don't have very high expectations for him, but I'd expect a decent workload and reasonable ERA.
Why wouldn't last year count? He... was healthy, throwing 95, and it seems significant that it is the most recent of those seasons.Is this what we have to look forward to under Bloom? Over paying for mediocrity as opposed to over paying for excellence?
I have nothing against Richards, but this guy hasn't been healthy in 5 years, and no last year doesn't count.
That’s sounds a little defeatist. If he’s pitching well enough to demand value at the deadline, then perhaps others are as well. In order to compete, Sox essentially need to do what they did in 2003, sign a bunch of guys to short-term deals and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Obviously the core rosters are not comparable, and it’s possible the money is better allotted elsewhere, but options are limited with a thin farm system and being unable/refusing to sign long term deals with elite free agents.this is just a guy who if he's healthy they can trade at the deadline, right. I mean what's the point? Just admit you're punting and move on.
Why? Richards has never pitched poorly besides his rookie season. The last 8 years his xFIP has been better than league average.Basically the same as Kluber got. He's younger, but seems like a worse bet to pitch well.
I don't get this either. Especially since the case for Odorizzi, who threw 13 innings last year, is that he's the paragon of durability.Why wouldn't last year count? He... was healthy, throwing 95, and it seems significant that it is the most recent of those seasons.
I like it. He always had a good arm, he seems to have recovered from his TJS, and he's striking guys out. I'd much rather have him on this deal than Odorizzi for 3/$39M.
For me, the more relevant comparison is Quintana at 1/$8m, which I think I would have beaten. But Quintana didn't throw much last season either, due to a dishwashing accident and then a pectoral strain.I don't get this either. Especially since the case for Odorizzi, who threw 13 innings last year, is that he's the paragon of durability.
Everyone will be on an innings count in 2021, so having a volume of decent starters is a pretty good plan.
I wonder if Richards could stand to add a cutter to his arsenal to help with his relative struggles vs. LHB. Doesn't look like he's ever thrown one, but Red Sox pitchers threw the second-most cutters in baseball over the last two years (behind the Cubs) and they've really helped guys like Price, Eovaldi and Perez over the years.
Nice tally here. Didn’t know about Quintana’s dishwashing injury but I’m wary of soft-tossing lefties in Fenway anyway. Still like a cheap deal for Rich Hill to bolster your swingman crop though.For me, the more relevant comparison is Quintana at 1/$8m, which I think I would have beaten. But Quintana didn't throw much last season either, due to a dishwashing accident and then a pectoral strain.
Still, I predicted in the other thread that we would add two starters, one at a $10-15m AAV and the other at a $4-8m AAV. We have Richards at $10m+option/buyout and Perez at 1/$4.5m+option/buyout.
This leaves us the following pitching staff. WAR projections are from ZIPS.
Injured List
Sale (L) 3.4 zWAR
Rotation
Rodriguez (L) 3.0 zWAR
Eovaldi (R) 1.2 zWAR
Richards (R) 1.1 zWAR
Perez (L) 1.3 zWAR
Pivetta (R) 1.2 zWAR
Swingmen/Long relief
Andriese (R) 0.8 zWAR
Whitlock (R) 0.9 zWAR
Short Relievers
Barnes (R) 0.7 zWAR
Hernandez (L) 0.1 zWAR
Brazier (R) 0.6 zWAR
Valdez (R) 0.2 zWAR
Brice (R) 0.1 zWAR
Taylor (L) 0.4 zWAR
AAA SP
Mata 0.9 zWAR
Houck 0.5 zWAR
Seabold 1.2 zWAR (!)
Payamps 0.9 zWAR
Mazza 0.6 zWAR
I would like to replace Brice or more likely (options) Taylor with a higher-upside late-inning reliever, but that's a pretty acceptable pitching staff. What particularly stands out to me is ZIPS' optimism about the rotation depth of swingmen and AAA SPs, which is good given the health questions about, well, all of our four top starting pitchers. Now, hopefully Connor Seabold isn't throwing 95 innings for the 2021 Red Sox, but it's good to see that a projection system thinks he could do alright if it came to that.
Yeah, I'm in the camp of preferring Kluber, if going after someone with an injury history. I'd even have gone $12 or $13They really didn’t like Kluber’s workout, huh
Considering his age, the duration of the contract, and the general standing of the rest of the roster, I personally don’t believe that Richards performing to his career lines for the first half of the season is enough to catapult this team into a perennial contender - which is Bloom’s goal, is it not? Sure, if he and the rest of the question marks in the rotation all realize their 90th percentile projections and stay healthy, this team could contend this season. I don’t believe Chaim is banking on that.Isn't the best case scenario that he pitches extraordinarily well for us for the next two years?
BOS was not mentioned specifically, but it was reported that Kluber turned down some larger offers than 1/11 to be in an environment he felt comfortable (with Cressey/Blake) and with a solid chance for a ring.Yeah, I'm in the camp of preferring Kluber, if going after someone with a injury history. I'd even have gone $12 or $13
Team option for 2022 for $10M, subject to escalators based on 2021 performance. Speier is everyone’s source here, and he hasn’t (so far) provided further details.Yeah, I'm in the camp of preferring Kluber, if going after someone with a injury history. I'd even have gone $12 or $13
Still better than the Evoo deal, based on lower risk.
Is it a team or player option? And is the option also for $10?
Twitterers not doing a good job of being specific.
I think for 2021 that it might not be a terrible idea to go to a 6 man rotation with Andriese as a swing man filling in for a starter here and there. With starters not throwing much in 2020 and to keep them healthy I think that’s what I would be doing. #4 starters might be even more important in 2021!!!!Impressive collection of #4 SPs we have.
I hadn’t seen that, but pitchers like Kluber who are looking for a 1-year deal to rebuild value so they can land a lucrative, long-term deal the next winter are pretty much never going to sign here.BOS was not mentioned specifically, but it was reported that Kluber turned down some larger offers than 1/11 to be in an environment he felt comfortable (with Cressey/Blake) and with a solid chance for a ring.
You don't get it ... they should sign "best available even if they aren't great" for a big contract to show they aren't trying to be cheapI like it. He always had a good arm, he seems to have recovered from his TJS, and he's striking guys out. I'd much rather have him on this deal than Odorizzi for 3/$39M.
My best case would be that he is healthy and outperforms the $10m price tag so we pick up a cheap $10m option for 2022 on a guy who would otherwise carry a $20m price tag. It’s a $10m bet with the opportunity to have two seasons of value.Best case scenario is Richards pitches extraordinarily well and is flipped for a nice haul at the deadline. The second year option would allow Boston to get a bit more considering he may not be a rental for the acquiring team, provided it is a team option.