Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

HomeRunBaker

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The competition is about to improve markedly. The Celtics' next two games are against Denver and ATL, respectively, on Friday nite and Sunday afternoon. Both in Boston. That should tell us a lot more about where this team stands.
Both teams are coming in well rested too. Should be fun and a nice gauge.
 

Van Everyman

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Agreed. I didn’t see all of the last Hawks game a few weeks ago but IIRC, they kind of came out flat and fell behind big before coming back to make it a one or two point game and then collapsing at the end.

One of the hallmarks of this latest streak is that they have mostly come out strong. They’ve faltered at times thereafter but that’s easier to correct. They need to keep doing that against the good teams.
 

Cellar-Door

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Denver is gonna be fascinating, both teams dominate with their starters and have weak benches. Jokic goes out and DEN goes from solid playoff team to high lottery
 

Cesar Crespo

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After the Theis deal, it looks like the C's are in the same spot as last year. Having 3 C's in their top 8 rotation players.

They are currently at 10+2 with the roster, so I'm expecting something else.
 

PedroKsBambino

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One thing is clear: the Celtics are making clear their 2021-2022 brand is defense. The top 8 is Smart/White/Jays/Horford/TL/Theis/Grant....there's not a bad defender in there.

Also will get some combo of Nesmith/Hauser/Thomas seeing some minutes which I think is a good thing.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm a little surprised to see them committing $9 million/year to Theis. It seems like you can pick up a player with that money pretty much every summer as a FA. So, they got DS without giving up any draft capital, but it sort of seems like they flipped him for what they could have purchased on the open market (not the specific player, of course, but similar level of player).
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'm a little surprised to see them committing $9 million/year to Theis. It seems like you can pick up a player with that money pretty much every summer as a FA. So, they got DS without giving up any draft capital, but it sort of seems like they flipped him for what they could have purchased on the open market (not the specific player, of course, but similar level of player).
Salary match for some future deal. Or, you have a pretty effective C rotation for ~$21M per year.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm a little surprised to see them committing $9 million/year to Theis. It seems like you can pick up a player with that money pretty much every summer as a FA. So, they got DS without giving up any draft capital, but it sort of seems like they flipped him for what they could have purchased on the open market (not the specific player, of course, but similar level of player).
I think it's a case of: "We know what Theis can do, how he fits", and he's better than the guys they've gotten on minimums and MLE recently (Enes, Thompson), so there is real value in just knowing that you've got your 2nd big set after you move on from Al likely this offseason.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think Brad's angle here is to:
  • Have a lot of guys who are good basketball players
  • Have a lot of guys who can be moved in biggers deals
  • Bring in guys who can fit the program. Ime was White's assistant coach for White's first 2 years in the NBA, and both come from Pop's system obviously
For better or worse, you really cannot imagine Danny Ainge doing anything like this, so Brad's GM stamp is on the team now.

Also: If you are thinking about a 2021-22 playoff run, with an undertalented team, maybe pushing all of the chips in on defense - while upgrading the talent by adding White - is not a bad way to go.
 

Fishy1

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Wonder if Hauser/Nesmith/Pritchard gets a chance to be the shooter the team needs alongside whatever buyouts the team hunts down. Nesmith has already gotten that opportunity to an extent, so has Pritchard. More likely the team continues to keep a pretty tight rotation: Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, White, Williams, Williams, Theis. The rest fight over the remaining minutes.

Center feels a little clogged at the moment, but with Horford going out soon Theis will fit better. I imagine he plays 15-25 for the time being. Will definitely make resting Time Lord and Al easier.

Seems like the consensus is Smart will keep starting, and White will come off the bench and probably close instead of Horford.
 

Senator Donut

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I think it's a case of: "We know what Theis can do, how he fits", and he's better than the guys they've gotten on minimums and MLE recently (Enes, Thompson), so there is real value in just knowing that you've got your 2nd big set after you move on from Al likely this offseason.
Bill Simmons (and others I'm sure, but Bill is the most prominent) have always said something to the effect of why waste draft capital or cap space on centers when there is cheap fungible talent available. In practice, this has been far from accurate. There are also a lot of players with limited skillsets that constrain your rotation combinations.
 

lovegtm

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Bill Simmons (and others I'm sure, but Bill is the most prominent) have always said something to the effect of why waste draft capital or cap space on centers when there is cheap fungible talent available. In practice, this has been far from accurate. There are also a lot of players with limited skillsets that constrain your rotation combinations.
Also when people say "fungible", what they really mean is "up to the MLE", and Theis fits into that framework.
 

benhogan

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As for The Is, much to BenHogan's chagrin, it looks like the 2-big lineup is here to stay and they needed a 3rd big to soak up some non-Horford minutes. I think the 1-8 is better today than it was yesterday.
Fair point, 1-8 is better defensively and they added a ballhandler that looks to distribute.

I wanted to offer up my 2BIGz mea culpa after the trade deadline festivities... so here we are

My main concern with it was TL's fragility & 35yr old Al Horford minutes. TL has been great with the minutes increase, so my hand wringing there was wrong. BUT Al's efficiency dipped after playing too many. IME has pulled back a hair on Horford's PT and imagine the Theis acquisition will help shrink wrap Al a bit more. That concern should go away.

2BIGz is definitely here to stay... to my chagrin ;). It's been effective and fun to watch lately. It has posted some gaudy #s, especially after the Brooklyn walloping. Adding Theis will have IME playing 2BIGz more

It mostly works because it takes advantage of TimeLord's unique skillset. It lets TL play free safety around the paint while having Al guard the opposing BIG. That's not taking anything away from Al, who is a very good help defender. It also works because the starting 5 is a defensive juggernaut. When Jaylen Brown is your worst defender on the floor that's a good thing. AND last but not least IME deserves credit for his defensive philosophy, it's working and improving as the season moves along. Interested in seeing the C's clampdown on Denver/ATL over the next few days.

If Al starts hitting open 3's this team could go very far.

Good call Wade on being one of the few around here that was in favor of 2BIGz. The others that thought it was a good idea, credit to you also.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Good call Wade on being one of the few around here that was in favor of 2BIGz. The others that thought it was a good idea, credit to you also.
Thanks for the props but not really deserved. I thought/think Ime is starting Al in large part because he's the elder statesman and should either has to start or finish games. Seems like Ime has decided to have Al start games, which if I had those two choices, I'd pick the same.

I just don't think it's easy to tell a guy like Al - who obviously can still play a bit - that he's strictly a second unit guy. I'm sure Al woyld do it without complaint (although his sister would have a social media meltdown :) ) but starting/finishing means something to players IMO.
 

benhogan

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Thanks for the props but not really deserved. I thought/think Ime is starting Al in large part because he's the elder statesman and should either has to start or finish games. Seems like Ime has decided to have Al start games, which if I had those two choices, I'd pick the same.

I just don't think it's easy to tell a guy like Al - who obviously can still play a bit - that he's strictly a second unit guy. I'm sure Al woyld do it without complaint (although his sister would have a social media meltdown :) ) but starting/finishing means something to players IMO.
adding Theis solves my biggest concerns with playing Al/TL together which were
1. forcing Kanter minutes OR
2. nubbing Horford with massive minutes
 

Eddie Jurak

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I've been thinking more about this, and I think both deals, but epecially the White deal, were very much made with the Brown/Tatum window in mind. The usual way of thinking about these kind of deals is "win now vs. rebuild." If you view it through that lens, it is clear that the Spurs were in rebuild mode (2 picks and an unproven young player) while the Celtics were not.

But this trade and the Schroder deal, too, are not exactly "win now" deals. In the White deal they are giving up some futures, they are adding the best player in the deal who fills a role on the current team, but this is not the move that would be made if the goal was to push all the chips in on 2021-22.

This deal is about extending, and winning in, the Tatum/Brown window.

The first and most important way this deal helped the Celtics is by adding flexibility to pull off a bigger move later. They have White, a legit NBA player signed for 3 more years after this one and making an NBA upper middle class salary. They have Theis, making $8 million. They have Horford, another big salary chip if they want to use him that way. As much as I love Marcus Smart, there are some... I'll call them 'unanswered questions' about his fit here. adding White creates some redundancy, which makes it easier to deal Smart from a position of strength if the Celtics ultimately decide that is the right move. Finally, White came up through the Pop system and Ime wants more of that experience on the team.

This deal is a message to Tatum and Brown that the commitment to building around them is there. These days, NBA players and their agents, etc, are sophisticated enough to know how the league works and how teams can be built, etc. They know the difference between a firesale deal and a win now deal and this deal.

Second, there are some potential short term benefits. The Celtics added another talented core player. A guy who both fits their defensive system and adds some offensive capabilities. Those are things that the Js want on their floor with them this year. They also added a 'system' big in Theis, whom the Js have familiarity with from his previous time here. I doubt Theis is here to play big minutes, but he can done in and set screens for Tatum and Tatum knows that.

I think the biggest short term question around this deal is how Smart is affected. This is all pure speculation on my part, but I think Smart came in dissatified with his contract extension and the negitiating process (or lack thereof) and it affected his play and attitude in the early part of the season. And his recent improvement is a sign that he had put all of that behind him. Given that there are some obvious similarities between the two players (although they are quite different in other ways), will Smart see White as a guy who is, after this season, here to take his job? Or will Smart see him as a guy who can fit right in alongside of him in the Celtics defense? Smart does a lot of 'directing traffic' when the Celtics are on defense, maybe he will recognize the defensive potential of adding White to the closing lineups with him, the Js, and Rob. The key to maxing out their 2021-22 success will be how Smart and White fit together.

The Celtics should be able to compete in the buyout market since they likely have a good minutes rotation spot to offer, but if Brad were in full "win now" mode he wouldn't have done a deal that took him down to 4.5 non-big rotation players (Smart, Jayson, Jaylen, White, and Grant as the .5 because a lot of his value is being a small big) and only 10 players overall.
 

PedroKsBambino

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On two bigs, the other thing to remember is that it is actually really good defensively and that has always been the focus. We may not love it, but they've been very consistent on this---both the focus on D and the focus on two bigs as an enabler of good D.

The challenge they really had (have?) is how to get sufficient offense around the two big defense, and being sure they pivot small when lineups/game dictates it.
 

Fishy1

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On two bigs, the other thing to remember is that it is actually really good defensively and that has always been the focus. We may not love it, but they've been very consistent on this---both the focus on D and the focus on two bigs as an enabler of good D.

The challenge they really had (have?) is how to get sufficient offense around the two big defense, and being sure they pivot small when lineups/game dictates it.
The two big lineups really struggled last year when Theis and TT were next to each other. There's obvious reasons why, most of them having to do with the fact that TT's only remaining NBA skill was rebounding and screen setting

Theis next to TL or Horford next to TL is ostensibly better defensively and offers shooting and plenty of passing, assuming Horford and Theis refind their shooting strokes.
 

Saints Rest

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On two bigs, the other thing to remember is that it is actually really good defensively and that has always been the focus. We may not love it, but they've been very consistent on this---both the focus on D and the focus on two bigs as an enabler of good D.

The challenge they really had (have?) is how to get sufficient offense around the two big defense, and being sure they pivot small when lineups/game dictates it.
I seem to recall Ime saying exactly that. That 2 bigs gives them a huge advantage on D. Adding Theis gives them the opprotunity to have more 2-Bigs minutes, since neither Freedom nor Grant could fill that role.
 

Cellar-Door

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I seem to recall Ime saying exactly that. That 2 bigs gives them a huge advantage on D. Adding Theis gives them the opprotunity to have more 2-Bigs minutes, since neither Freedom nor Grant could fill that role.
The stats do back this up. Horford/TL has not been as good on offense as TL/(Grant or Richardson), but the defense is an absolutely batshit crazy 87.9 Drtg in 265 minutes.

To get an idea how insane that is... no other commonly used lineup in the league (100+ minutes) is within 5 points of it. Miami's Lowry/Butler/Robinson/Tucker/Bam lineup is 2nd a full 5 points back.

If you push to 200 minutes played, MIA still 2nd, 3rd is Conley/Clarkson/Ingles/Gay/Gobert at just under TEN FULL POINTS worse.

Edit- also worth noting, the Celtics' starters are 10 points better on offense than that MIA unit, and 3 points better on offense than the UTAH unit (only team close on NET is the Wolves' starters who are good on D and nuclear hot on offense).
 

Cellar-Door

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So to give you an idea how truly insane that Drtg is...
the last 5 man unit to have a season with a better Drtg than that (min 200 minutes) was the 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs with: TIm Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter.
 

Bleedred

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I'm a stat guy in that I believe that the metrics to evaluate players are an absolute must in today's NBA. I'm not a stat guy, in that I don't understand them on a very detailed level, I just take on faith what those who do understand them to provide a snapshot for me on what they mean and how they project a certain player/evaluate him.

Here's my question. What do the defensive metrics say about Jaylen Brown as a defender? I ask because I suspect he's rated high, but I think he's really lazy on defense and gives a fake effort way too often. When committed to defending and giving that effort, he's very good, but he doesn't give that effort nearly enough IMO.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Good news.
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1492286329492807680?s=20&t=utxluvLn2ZLh4Bg1qQZbZw

Keith Smith: Derrick White is available to play tonight for the Celtics vs the Nuggets. No word on Daniel Theis yet. He arrived in town much later than White did. May need to wait until Sunday for Theis' re-debut for Boston.
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1492291795287478281?s=20&t=OW3iiQ7R02evfe_iNFvkUg

Keither Smith: The Boston Celtics have officially sign Luke Kornet to a remainder-of-season contract.

Smart
Brown
Tatum
Horford
Rob
White
Grant
Pritchard
Kornet
Nesmith
Hauser
Thomas

Theis likely not cleared to play yet.
 

radsoxfan

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White is good.

The crunch time 5 is very good.

Like, as good as anyone in the NBA level good. A little light on the shooting.

Big Al finding his shot or PP/Nesmith being useful shooters off the bench would be nice.
 

Cesar Crespo

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White is good.

The crunch time 5 is very good.

Like, as good as anyone in the NBA level good. A little light on the shooting.

Big Al finding his shot or PP/Nesmith being useful shooters off the bench would be nice.
Someone mentioned Gary Harris as a buyout. He's a good (or was?) defender and used to be a pretty good shooter. He's rebounded this year some.

Hopefully there is a shooter or two available better than Harris, but the C's do have the room for a few more guys.
 

Cellar-Door

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was out and missed this one, sounds like White played well and they executed down the stretch, both excellent signs
 

radsoxfan

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It would be nice if some of the teams ahead of them would start losing games.
Seriously.

Who out of the top 6 falls out? Seems like Chicago and Toronto are the most likely ones to me.

Will Brooklyn be in a play-in game? Crazy.

This year feels like a season it should be top 8/regular playoffs but the play-in set up will make things intense all the way through.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It would be nice if some of the teams ahead of them would start losing games.
Don’t expect a lot of that to happen. The East is loaded at the top like we haven’t seen now in decades. Milwaukee and Miami are playing at another level……and if Brooklyn gets all their pieces aligned we could still be last years Hawks or Knicks and still be in for hell in a playoff series with teams like Chicago, Toronto and Cleveland there.


The crunch time 5 is very good.

Like, as good as anyone in the NBA level good. A little light on the shooting.
I hope you use an Uber tonight. ;)
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This team is going to wreak havoc on opposing offenses going forward. I don't know how far it will take them given that their own limitations on O but I am down to watch it. Clamps teams are fun, piling up the stops. 13 steals (league leader is Grizz @ 10.1/gm) and eight blocks (Grizz are first here too @ 6.4/gm with Cs right behind @ 6/gm) are a decent part of what kept them in this game.
 

lovegtm

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The best part about watching being pretty good and playing their asses off is that you know Brad won't be afraid to spend draft capital in the summer to turn the Horford contract into another impact player. Convincing LaVine to do a S&T would be really interesting, for example, and the Celtics absolutely have the assets to do that level of deal.
 

BaseballJones

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The thing about being a great defensive team is that you should always be in games, even when the offense is bogging down. And when the offense is clicking, you will blow teams out. Offense comes and goes but teams committed to playing great defense usually can keep that up with greeter consistency.
 

128

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Or....games are 48 minutes long.
Shooting remains a concern, but the C's defense was great, and they showed the grit that was their trademark for most of Stevens' tenure as coach.

It helped that Jokic was so sloppy with the ball. Some of that was due to Boston's defense, no doubt, but this was not one of Jokic's best games, his triple-double aside.
 
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benhogan

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JAYs getting better at feeding Rob in the dunker's spot is becoming more pronounced. It's a nice go-to when getting downhill and drawing the opposing BIG in the lane.

White fit in seamlessly, he'll definitely help with team defense/ballhandling/transition/pace. Not needing to scram a shrimpy PG on defense lessens the chances the C's get put into rotation (giving up open 3s). ATL is a good 3pt shooting team (37.5%, 3rd in the NBA) Interested in seeing how Boston impacts that on Sunday.

The JAYs season-long 3pt slump continues, their shots weren't even close. Tatum is especially bad. Airballs, hitting backboard first or hard off the side of the rim was shocking in the past but is way too common now. This feels like it will be a summer fix. Tatum is so mechanical, really needs to get into the lab with Hanlen for a few weeks.

Pritchard is on a very short leash. The play/develop youngsters part of the season is over. If he can't knock 3s down at a very high clip then go with a 3-man bench, play DW starter minutes 32-33mpg, bump Grant up to 25-27mpg & Theis 15-18mpg.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Well, the Derrick White era began with a hard fought win against a good team on a night where the Celtics just looked off in a lot of ways.

The Celtics started their usual five and then had White, Grant, and Pritchard off the bench. Theis was not here.

When White came into the game for the first time, he got a standing ovation. Welcome to Boston, Derrick.

This was a sloppy game overall, with the Celtics shooting below 40% from the field, below 30% from three, and only 73% from the line. They hit 8 straight free throws down the stretch, but at one point they were 14-22.

There were a couple of crazy lines on the Celtics side.

Much of the bad shooting night was Brown: 4-17 from the field, 0 for 6 from 3, 4 for 7 from the line. 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 turnovers. The best plays he made were a pair of 4th quarter lobs to Rob. Some of his misses from 2 were due to him driving into a crowd and getting swallowed up, but he also missed a lot of open looks, (as did many of his teammtaes).

Marcus had an up and down game, maybe partly because he was too fired up. His final line: 22 points on 6-16 shooting from the field, 2-6 from three, 8-10 from the line. Plus 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 5 steals, but also 5 turnovers. He was a bit sloppy with the ball early, and 2 of his turnovers were length of the court passess that missed their target. Later in the game, ge was getting into the paint and getting some key buckets or to the line.

Tatum was 8-19 including 1-8 from three, but 7-8 from the line for 24. Added 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 turnovers.

Rob Williams played one of his best ever games in this one. The usual double-double (15-16), to which he also added 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks. On one key sequence late, Rob blocked a shot, ran it down, and then made a nifty behind the back pass to Marcus. Rob showed a little more fire in this one than you usually see from him. He battled Jokic for an offensive rebound and putback, was a little more willing to shoot when there was some defense on him (even though he tended to miss these shots), and - a bit unusual for him - was matched up on Jokic late in the post and acquitted himself fairly well. I think some of his rebounding is from his athleticism, but some of it is knowing where the ball is going to come down and able to creat some space. Ithink he was fired up for the matchup with Jokic. It wasn't always Rob on Jokic, and Jokic wasn't "shut down" bu any means, but Rob handled himself well in the 1 on 1 matchup.

Horford was the steady self he has been of late: one point short of a double-double (9-11) plus 3 blocks and 3 assists.

Grant was decent in 19 minutes, with 8 points, 1 rebound, 2 blocks and a turnover. 2-3 from three, 1-3 from 2 including a missed layup. Lots some minutes to White.

Pritchard played 11 minutes and struggled, shooting 1-6 from the field incliding 1-3 from three. 2 rebounds, an assist, a steal. The only shot he hit was his most difficult and clutch shot. Celtics are down 7 with about 9 minutes left in the 4th. Late in the third, a Rob rebound and dunk of a Tatum miss put the Celtics up 4 (76-72), but over the next 6 minutes, around the quarter break, Denver went on a 16-5 run to put themselves up 88-81. Marcus drives, attampts a difficult layup, misses. Al grabs the offensive rebound and gets it to the corner, where Pirtchard is well defended against the baseline, tries to drive but is stopped and loses his dribble. Pritchard passes to Al who gives it right back, and with the shot clock running down Pritchard comes up above the break and hits a deep stepback 3, cutting the lead to 4 and stopping the run.

Derrick White looked good. He came in with aout 4.5 minutes left in the third, got his ovoation, and helped the Celtics climb back into this one. The Nuggets had the best offense against the Celtics starters we have seen in a while, with a 10-point lead (26-16) when White checked in, in a quarter characterized by sloppy play and tunrovers on both sides and Jokic hitting Aaron Gordon for 3 easy baskets. White's first play was to get out o the break after a Marcus Smart steal and hit Brown with a lob. Then he hit an open Tatum setting up a drive and dunk, then hit a three. Celtics ended the quarter with a 14-6 run to cut the lead to 2. Then White opened Q2 by hitting a three and a 2, both assisted by Tatum, with whom he seemed to have some insteand chemistry. White had 11 minutes in the first half and then 17 in the second, coming in with 5 minutes left in the third and playing out the rest of the game. The closing lineup was the one we have all been expecting: Smart-White-Brown-Tatum-Rob and it did the job. White's line in 28 minutes: 15 points on 6-12 shooting including 3-7 from three, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 tunrovers. He should have had 4 assists, he hit 2 guys under the basket who had layups roll off the rim. One was Grant, the other might have been Jaylen but I can''t remember.

Celtics 4th quarter offense looked rough at times, in the same way we have seen it look rough, but they ultimated got it done, outscoring Denver 32-23. After the Pritchard shot, the game stayed close until the Rob tied it on a lob from Brown. Brown was doubled on the perimeter, dribbled out of it and into a drive, then threw the lob, Williams dunk gave the Celtics a 1 point lead. With 2 minutes left, Brown and White execute a pick and roll with White setting the pick, both defenders guarding Brown, and Brown flipping it past them to an open White who could go in and lay it in, putting the Celtics up 3. No scoring by either team for the next minute before an absolutely crazy play happens:

With Boston in possession, Campazzo fouls Smart off ball and is whistled, but Smart appears to grab Campazzo, make contact with Campazzo's face, and shove him to the floor. The call on the floor is Campazzo foul and 2 shots for Smart, but they go to viedo review and Mike and Scal are speculating about a technical. Campazzo flopped a little, but it did not look good on the replay, and I (not understanding the first thing about how the refs call these kind of situations) am worried that they will throw him out of the game or call a flagrent or something. The refs review for a while and call the post-whistle action literally "nothing," a normal basketball play. Smart hits his 2 free throws, the Celtics are up 5, and that is basically it.

For those wondering what NBA refs see, this is a foul on Campazzo followed by "nothing."
View: https://twitter.com/ClutchPointsApp/status/1492331462040768513?s=20&t=JBVQ_rfcFf2dS3frif_nYQ
 

lovegtm

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Shooting remains a concern, but the C's defense was great, and they showed the grit that was their trademark for most of Stevens' tenure as coach.

It helped that Jokic was so sloppy with the ball. Some of that was due to Boston's defense, no doubt, but this was not one of Jokic's best games, his triple-double aside.
Obviously more shooting would be good, but the Jays went 1-14 from 3 and Al went 1-4. Everyone else was fine.

If they can beat/be close against decent teams when the Jays shoot that poorly, and absent a hot night from anyone else, I'll take that.
 

NomarsFool

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8,312
It was a fun game. I liked what White brought to the game. The shooting was ugly. Yes, there were about two shots that went mostly in, but there were many, many others that missed very badly.

There is about 10-15 minutes available for a shooter. Last night it was Pritchard, who did hit that monster three, but otherwise looked pretty awful. He will probably get a few games to see what he can do and then maybe it’s back to Nesmith if PP can’t do it. I think Nesmith is at least more versatile on defense, just so far hasn’t been able to hit the side of a barn - while inside.