Sure, I think it's reasonably likely that Devers is a 4.5 WAR guy over the next three years. Like
@Rovin Romine said though that's hardly irreplaceable. The Sox have pretty big holes at C, 1B, RF, and SP. Even just marginal upgrades at each of those positions could easily add up to more WAR than we'd lose from Devers. There were also 20 3B last season that put up at least 2 fWAR and 6 more that put up 1.5-1.99 fWAR. It shouldn't be difficult to replace Devers with someone that is at least in the 1-2 WAR range, if not better.
So that means we are really only needing to add 2.5 WAR elsewhere to mitigate the loss.
We'd need to add 2.5 WAR elsewhere
through spending to mitigate the loss, right? Not necessarily dropping $300M on it, but by acquiring outside talent, not just through prospect projections. Otherwise this is all just an exercise in saving JWH money.
Spreading the risk makes sense to a degree, but splitting 5 WAR between two or more players also costs that many roster spots. Roster spots have value, both in the opportunity cost of missed development time and in prospects lost from an inability to protect them on the Rule 5 draft, which matters for deep systems like ours. The real equation would be 2 WAR 3B + 2.5 WAR SP = 4.5 WAR Devers
+ player TBA (plus the future value of player TBA). One elite, 32 runs-above-average hitter on TEAM A is more valuable than two 16 runs-above-average hitters on TEAM B, because its easier for TEAM A to find a roughly league-average hitter to fill the non-elite lineup position.
For the record, I'm not at all ready to assume Devers is a 4.5 WAR guy going forward. Did his hitting stop improving at age 24? That intuitively doesn't make sense, and it doesn't jell with the numbers he put up from mid-June on last year, after he solved his weird little stretch not catching up to hit fastballs and then considerably improved his walk rate. It also assumes that he won't benefit from the banned shift beginning in 2023, which is extremely unlikely (otherwise they wouldn't shift him). Devers had the second-highest exit velocity (Y. Alvarez) among all LHH on pulled ground balls and line drives in 2021, so its reasonable to think more of those would go through for base hits.
But let's go with it. Let's assume that we can somehow plug in Dalbec or some a generic 2-win third baseman for relatively free, and that we're happy with that. We'd then need to acquire a 2.5-win pitcher. Again -- with money, not just prospect projections. There are 61 starting pitchers (and their ages) who put up 2.5 fWAR in 2021 or cumulative 3 fWAR over 20-21, listed according to their free agency:
FA 2023:
Eflin (29),
Rodon (29, can opt out of 1/22.5M in '23),
Musgrove (30),
Manaea (31),
Bassitt (34),
Gibson (35),
Kershaw (35),
Minor (35),
Miley (36),
Greinke (39),
Morton (39, team holds $20M option in '23),
Wainwright (41)
FA 2024:
Flexen (29),
Mahle (29),
Ohtani (29),
Glasnow (30),
Montas (31),
Montgomery (31),
Nola (31),
Luis Castillo (31),
Eduardo Rodriguez (31, can opt out of 3/$49M),
Stroman (33, if opts out of 1/$21M),
Wood (33),
Sonny Gray (34),
Maeda (36),
Darvish (37),
Lynn (37, team holds $18M club option in '24),
Ryu (37)
FA 2025:
Bieber (30),
Buehler (30),
Burnes (30),
Pablo Lopez (29),
Marquez (30),
Fried (31),
Woodruff (31),
Means (32),
Stroman (34, if doesn't opt out of '24),
Hendricks (35),
Wheeler (35),
Cobb (37),
Scherzer (41)
FA 2026:
Singer (29),
Webb (29),
Cease (30),
Gallen (30),
Valdez (32),
Matz (35),
Kelly (37)
FA 2027:
Ian Anderson (29),
Trevor Rogers (29),
Luis Garcia (30),
Alcantara (31, team holds $21M option in '27),
Peralta (31),
Senzatela (32, team holds $14M option in '27),
McCullers Jr. (33),
Ray (35)
This list excludes Eovaldi (who already plays for us and has a separate win-value calculation), guys in our division with long-term contracts (Cole, Gausman and Berrios) and Trevor Bauer (because).
This list is shorter than you might think. I'd argue that all of Bassitt, Gibson, Kershaw, Minor, Miley, Greinke, Morton, Wainwright, Gray, Maeda, Darvish, Lynn, Ryu, Hendricks, Cobb, Scherzer, Matz, Kelly, McCullers and Ray won't be worth signing at their respective ages because they aren't likely to be effective. That leaves us with the following:
'23: Eflin, Rodon, Musgrove, Manaea
'24: Flexen, Mahle, Ohtani, Glasnow, Montas, Montgomery, Nola, Castillo, E-Rod, Wood
'25: Bieber, Buehler, Burnes, Lopez, Marquez, Fried, Woodruff, Means, Stroman, Wheeler
'26: Webb, Cease, maybe Brady Singer
'27 is far enough in the future that it's got little to do with Devers, but I suppose someone like Trevor Rogers could become available sooner if the Marlins wish to shop him.
That's 27 pitchers potentially available pitchers over the next four offseasons who could be worth 2.5+ WAR. Many are likely to be very expensive, which would eat into the cost-savings you'd be getting relative to a Devers deal. Musgrove, Ohtani, Bieber, Burnes, Buehler, Nola and Woodruff could all reasonably get $150M if they continue on their trajectory. Rodon, Montas, Mahle, Marquez, Lopez, Fried, Webb and Cease could all approach nine-figure deals if they stay healthy, and Glasnow could join them if he has a strong 2023. Manaea has bad splits and it's telling that the Sox didn't get him for as cheap as the Mets did. E-Rod is probably out on principle, and Ohtani is doubtful to leave the West Coast. Eflin, Montgomery, Flexen, Means, Singer, Wood, Gallen and Valdez could go either way. Wheeler may still be a stud, but he'd be fairly old. There will probably be other pitchers breaking out and hitting free agency in the next couple years, but they'll have some question marks by definition.
Of course, this also assumes that the Sox can outbid other teams and land one of these guys, preferably one of their top few targets. If I
knew we could land Musgrove, Mahle or Montas with a free agent contract in the next two years free agent and absolutely needed Devers's money to do it -- a scenario far less likely to be the case with the higher CBT thresholds -- then that'd be one thing. But what happens if this plan to pass on Devers in favor of two equally valuable players gets us like, Matt Chapman (6 + $120M) and John Means (4/$60M)? Is that better?
