Yeah, the nature of Mac is that he can't get away with bad throws because he just doesn't have the tools passing or running to just win on talent, he has to win on near perfect execution over and over. His margin for error is much smaller.This is a silly point. The concerning throws from Mac are mostly physical limitations. Those other guys are light years ahead of him in that department. Mac’s lack of arm strength is a real issue for this team.
I think that was also a nice play by the Miami Defense. That guy moved in close to the line with perfect timing, and hid behind the linebacker. If he's a second too early he gets called out by somebody, or if he's too late the play is developing and anything could have happened.I grabbed this from Gamepass, Brown and Ferentz both initially block Ingram, Ferentz then switches to the guy Andrews is blocking. Neither Brown nor Henry ever look at the extra rusher creeping up and Henry runs a short route.
Don't give Bedard any credit, except perhaps that he accurately notes the change in approach.As loathe as I am to give Bedard credit, he does have a point about how Bill has spoken about the team over the last few years. He's way more positive and much more prone to make excuses since Brady has left. Maybe it's the type of coaching this new team needs, but it does kind of smack a bit of doing PR for himself and where the team is right now.
I mean, I know we all have the torches and pitchforks out but that's also just a very well designed and timed delayed blitz.I grabbed this from Gamepass, Brown and Ferentz both initially block Ingram, Ferentz then switches to the guy Andrews is blocking. Neither Brown nor Henry ever look at the extra rusher creeping up and Henry runs a short route.
There are bad throws because a player lacks a physical tool. There are also bad throws because a QB is a dumbass. You think the former is worse. Okay.This is a silly point. The concerning throws from Mac are mostly physical limitations. Those other guys are light years ahead of him in that department. Mac’s lack of arm strength is a real issue for this team.
As I've interviewed one of the Pats' longtime captains the past few months, he's made it clear that BB *has* changed.Don't give Bedard any credit, except perhaps that he accurately notes the change in approach.
The attribution of reasons why Bill has changed his approach is speculative at best and asshat clickbaitery at worst on behalf of the football media.
It seems to be the case that Bill has softened his approach, and there's a non-zero chance that Bill has lost his fastball. But one has no correlation with the other. Guy has the best living NFL resume. "Because he doesn't beat up his team publicly" doesn't tell us anything.
Look at how Coach K evolved over the years. The good ones do. Old baseball managers used to physically confront their own players, whereas now the best managers are great communicators and part-time therapists.
If Bill has changed, the burden of proof is on the commentariat to explain why this proves that Bill is slipping, not just to say it.
You've been interviewing one of their captains?As I've interviewed one of the Pats' longtime captains the past few months, he's made it clear that BB *has* changed.
Yes, for a book I've been working on.You've been interviewing one of their captains?
Go ahead and show me where I said that. Try responding to what people actually write. It generally helps.There are bad throws because a player lacks a physical tool. There are also bad throws because a QB is a dumbass. You think the former is worse. Okay.
You said, "The concerning throws from Mac are mostly physical limitations." Other guys with better arm strength than Mac make bad throws that are concerning because they're dumb throws.Go ahead and show me where I said that. Try responding to what people actually write. It generally helps.
Awesome. Without asking you to divulge any details, would you say those changes make you more or less likely to agree with the "Bill has lost his fastball" and "Bill is surrounding himself with yes men" arguments?Yes, for a book I've been working on.
Oh I buy that. It would be really weird if he hadn't. The players have changed. Society has changed. Bill has aged. Bill has won a ton of Super Bowls. A lot has changed.As I've interviewed one of the Pats' longtime captains the past few months, he's made it clear that BB *has* changed.
Not remotely. This isn't the subject of the book but it was interesting to talk about nonetheless. He said that BB has softened his approach over the years. He, for one, likes it (the player) and thinks it's a sign that BB has grown as a person and as a leader. LOVES playing for BB. Absolutely loves it and has the absolute utmost respect for him. Not just for the coach he WAS, but for the coach he IS now.Awesome. Without asking you to divulge any details, would you say those changes make you more or less likely to agree with the "Bill has lost his fastball" and "Bill is surrounding himself with yes men" arguments?
Bad throws are bad throws. It ultimately doesn't matter if it's physical or mental so, no, I wasn't saying one was worse than the other. I was merely saying that pointing out that great QBs have concerning throws too is kind of, I don't know, pointless to me. It'd be like saying, "hey, Steph Curry has bad shooting nights too" when discussing Derrick White's shooting limitations.You said, "The concerning throws from Mac are mostly physical limitations." Other guys with better arm strength than Mac make bad throws that are concerning because they're dumb throws.
When you said Mac's throws are concerning because they're physical limitations, I thought, well, that's what you meant.
Ok, got it. Thanks for the clarification.Bad throws are bad throws. It ultimately doesn't matter if it's physical or mental so, no, I wasn't saying one was worse than the other. I was merely saying that pointing out that great QBs have concerning throws too is kind of, I don't know, pointless to me. It'd be like saying, "hey, Steph Curry has bad shooting nights too" when discussing Derrick White's shooting limitations.
I'm not sure about that, he rushes, slows down, then speeds up again when he sees the ball is snapped. I think the bigger problem was that Henry was looking in at the center for several seconds, right up to the snap. The blitzer started moving after he turned his head, and by the time Henry turned and looked upfield the guy was even with/past him. I'm guessing that was the crowd noise, he couldn't hear Mac and was watching for the snap and the blitzer took advantage of that perfectly.It looks to me like 29 has a really good read on Mac's cadence and times it perfectly. I think that's on the QB more than anyone.
Oh, totally hear you. I think Mac is good, but you won’t win a game like yesterday - where neither team was dominating but the Pats line play/game plan was erratic - with the regularity you would with a truly exceptional QB.To be clear, I'm not lamenting the fact that Mac isn't one of those guys. Coming out of the Brady departure, our options were limited and Mac probably is/was the best option. The only thing the Pats can do here is to have a really strong OL and coach to the players' strengths. Right now, the OL sucks and our offensive coaches are completely unproven in their new roles. It's just a bad formula. Hopefully, the OL improves and they clearly tried to address it with the Strange pick. But letting Patricia/Judge guide your young QBs progression...meh.
Cellar posted a good tweet in the other thread about how Mac is more effective throwing out of play action and the Pats called 2 PA yesterday. That would appear to be in conflict to the "playing to your strengths" point. In short, I have confidence that Mac could be decent-to-good NFL QB. We already saw that last year.
What I don't have confidence in is Patricia/Judge getting him there. But BB wanted them in the role so what do I know. I just know that, on the surface, it feels like a very bad fit.
Thanks for sharing. I will say: this is sort of exactly what I expected.Not remotely. This isn't the subject of the book but it was interesting to talk about nonetheless. He said that BB has softened his approach over the years. He, for one, likes it (the player) and thinks it's a sign that BB has grown as a person and as a leader. LOVES playing for BB. Absolutely loves it and has the absolute utmost respect for him. Not just for the coach he WAS, but for the coach he IS now.
I disagree. We've seen him in the past try to deflect blame off the players when this seem fragile. I think this was his way of trying to keep the team positive after a shit performance.I’ll admit, I don’t like the fact that BB seemed to say at both halftime and in the post-game that the difference in the game was 1-2 plays. While maybe technically true, this isn’t the BB I know. Those plays happened and they matter. There are no moral victories and he’s not been a guy who has ever cared about anything except the bottom line results.
I totally agree. And I was talking with my adult son about this the other day. We just went through the greatest 20 year stretch in NFL history for any organization. Ever. And there have been three down years in a row since they last won a Super Bowl. And in two of those down years, they won 12 and 10 games, respectively, and made the playoffs. Yes, losing badly in the playoffs but still. MADE the playoffs. Which for many franchises is a dream come true all by itself. And in the one year they didn't make the playoffs, they went 7-9, so even then it's not like they were a 4 win team. Other franchises rebuild and it's a catastrophe for a number of years. This team's rebuild still gives us a competitive team.Thanks for sharing. I will say: this is sort of exactly what I expected.
The thing about where this team is right now is ... I actually am excited to see Bill rebuild this team. Would I have preferred to have kept Brady happy and won 2 or 3 more? Probably. Are we witnessing the next dynasty? Probably not. And I get why other people aren’t as patient.
But seeing one of the greats (the great) strip the thing back and build a new system for a new era is likely the best next outcome and definitely more interesting – and IMO, a better outcome than watching him walk away after 2018, hand the keys to Josh and maybe do this for the Giants or some other franchise. If you believe Bill still has a lot of fire and football innovation left in him, this is what I’d prefer to see.
It was Ferentz. Phil Perry covered this and while PFF is far from perfect they also credited that sack to Brown. In the post-game interviews it was noted that it should have been blocked. Yes, covering a late blitzer is tough but Brown has made this kind of error before (think last year against the Colts IIRC).Hmm, well Brown and the LG (forget who it was at the time) both picked up other men right off the snap, so someone was going to get through if Henry didn't participate.
I agree, I thought he was average.
The point is that there are many people - goodness listen to sports talk radio - that are essentially saying Mac will never be anything. The point about Josh Allen is simply that it takes time for most QBs - even most of the great ones - to become great. Mac just played the first game of his second season.You said it yourself, Mac isn't Josh Allen so the comparison stinks.
Josh Allen was flashing greatness in his first two seasons, even if just looking at pure stat comparisons makes it seem closer than it actually is. Mac still looks like a very rough and average talented QB. The only impressive thing about Mac in his first season was his ability to manage a game and make really good standard throws.The point is that there are many people - goodness listen to sports talk radio - that are essentially saying Mac will never be anything. The point about Josh Allen is simply that it takes time for most QBs - even most of the great ones - to become great. Mac just played the first game of his second season.
Yes, and I'm not saying Mac will ever be at Josh Allen's level. That's not what I'm getting at. I'm just saying that Mac's ceiling is probably a lot higher than he's currently at. And he's one game into his second year. Pats fans need to be patient and allow the guy to grow into it.Josh Allen was flashing greatness in his first two seasons, even if just looking at pure stat comparisons makes it seem closer than it actually is. Mac still looks like a very rough and average talented QB. The only impressive thing about Mac in his first season was his ability to manage a game and make really good standard throws.
It's a terrible comparison though because Josh Allen had monster tools and had to learn how to play football which took him a couple years. Mac doesn't have those tools. If you want to make that argument use a player with fringy tools.The point is that there are many people - goodness listen to sports talk radio - that are essentially saying Mac will never be anything. The point about Josh Allen is simply that it takes time for most QBs - even most of the great ones - to become great. Mac just played the first game of his second season.
Even though I think you're generally too harsh on Jones, I basically agree with you here. I think it's possible that your assessment of "average talent" can be improved upon, particularly since he has the underpinnings of game management and basic throws.Josh Allen was flashing greatness in his first two seasons, even if just looking at pure stat comparisons makes it seem closer than it actually is. Mac still looks like a very rough and average talented QB. The only impressive thing about Mac in his first season was his ability to manage a game and make really good standard throws.
By all accounts, Tom Brady had "fringy" tools too. No foot speed. Average arm at best.It's a terrible comparison though because Josh Allen had monster tools and had to learn how to play football which took him a couple years. Mac doesn't have those tools. If you want to make that argument use a player with fringy tools.
And if you want to make that comp.... fine.By all accounts, Tom Brady had "fringy" tools too. No foot speed. Average arm at best.
Scouting reports on Brady:
--Poor build
--Skinny
--Lacks great physical stature and strength
--Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush
--Lacks a really strong arm
--Can’t drive the ball downfield
--Does not throw a really tight spiral
--System-type player who can get exposed if forced to ad lib
--Gets knocked down easily
(see: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/tom-bradys-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report-will-never-cease-be-funny)
"He's a straight dropback passer who stands tall in the pocket, doesn't show nervous feet, and does a nice job working through his progressions. He's not going to try to force the action, rarely trying to perform beyond his capability....He's accurate, throws a very catchable ball, and also knows when to take a little off the pass....
At the pro level, his lack of mobility could surface as a problem, and it will be interesting to see how he fares when forced to take more chances down the field. Sure, he doesn't have the total package of skills, but you have to be impressed with his level of performance this past season"
(see: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29040115/tom-brady-scouting-report-2000-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-pre-draft-grade-ranking)
No, I'm not saying Mac will be Tom Brady. But you asked for another guy with "fringy" tools. Reading the scouting reports on Brady, he had fringy tools....looked very similar to what Mac Jones looked like.
I mean, we basically have no choice here. He's the best option for them at QB right now and for the foreseeable future, so we have to hope he can continue to develop and mature. But, I don't think there's any way of knowing right now that his ceiling is "probably a lot higher" than what we have currently seen. I sure hope it is, but it certainly might not be.Yes, and I'm not saying Mac will ever be at Josh Allen's level. That's not what I'm getting at. I'm just saying that Mac's ceiling is probably a lot higher than he's currently at. And he's one game into his second year. Pats fans need to be patient and allow the guy to grow into it.
Drew Brees' scouting report also showed not tons in the "physical tools" department. Again, not saying Mac is Drew Brees, but it's another example of a guy with limited tools that took a few years to really click in the NFL. He didn't become DREW BREES til his fourth season.And if you want to make that comp.... fine.
The point is people keep making comps like Josh Allen, and it is dumb, Josh Allen's first 3 years tell us nothing about Mac's 1st 3 years, they might as well be different species.
I do think it is telling that people either reach for totally dissimilar players or go back 20+ years.... mostly because they don't like the more recent similar player comps because it's mostly middle of the pack starting QBs (not a bad outcome, but nobody gets excited by that)
Mac will likely get better over his first 3 years....but trying to argue for it using Allen is just silliness.
Burrow is probably the best argument, he's not a freak in terms of arm or athleticism and he was bad as a rookie, broke out year 2.I mean, we basically have no choice here. He's the best option for them at QB right now and for the foreseeable future, so we have to hope he can continue to develop and mature. But, I don't think there's any way of knowing right now that his ceiling is "probably a lot higher" than what we have currently seen. I sure hope it is, but it certainly might not be.
Other than Allen, who has physical tools that set him apart from Mac and make it a bad comparison, what other elite QBs who have come into the league recently took multiple years to develop? I know Mahomes didn't play right away but he was great from basically the day he finally was named the starter. Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, Dak, Watson, Murray all pretty much showed from the get go that they were going to be elite, none of them had to be developed over multiple seasons.
Yes for sure Mac has a lower ceiling than guys like Mahomes who can make every throw, from any platform imaginable. But I mean, Mahomes may end up being one of the greatest to ever play the position. Josh Allen might be that too. But Mahomes didn't even play his rookie year. Mac was thrown into the fire right away. Burrow was ok his rookie year, not crazy great (89.8 passer rating compared to Mac's 92.5), but he's played with MUCH better offensive skill position talent around him than Mac has.I mean, we basically have no choice here. He's the best option for them at QB right now and for the foreseeable future, so we have to hope he can continue to develop and mature. But, I don't think there's any way of knowing right now that his ceiling is "probably a lot higher" than what we have currently seen. I sure hope it is, but it certainly might not be.
Other than Allen, who has physical tools that set him apart from Mac and make it a bad comparison, what other elite QBs who have come into the league recently took multiple years to develop? I know Mahomes didn't play right away but he was great from basically the day he finally was named the starter. Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, Dak, Watson, Murray all pretty much showed from the get go that they were going to be elite, none of them had to be developed over multiple seasons.
Edit: Guys who start out shaky to mediocre (Wentz, Goff, Darnold, Tua, WInston, Tannhill, Trubisky, Jones) seem to have a much lower ceiling.
The problem with your "growing pains" argument is that you're assuming that the good outweighs the bad and that's what folks are trying to tell you, it doesn't and hasn't. Sure he might develop a bit more to be a net positive on this team, but other elite QBs were winning games on their own while having "growing pains". Mac Jones can't afford to have a lot of those, especially when his strength is basically being a game manager that doesn't make mistakes. There's not a lot of room for him to make mistakes. The other guys you listing had so many other positive attributes that it's not even a fair comparison.I mean, we all agree that Mac Jones is much more likely to end up with a career more like Chad Pennington than Tom Brady or Drew Brees. That doesn't even need to be said, though I guess apparently it does.
The entire point of this from my end is simply that Mac Jones has played one game into his second season in the NFL. Of COURSE there's going to be growing pains. And he doesn't have elite offensive talent around him to help boost him. It'll take time for him to become the best version of Mac Jones.
The questions are:
(1) What is his true ceiling? I personally think it's pretty good, one where he could be a multiple time legit pro-bowler (not one of the "I'm in the pro bowl because nine guys declined to go" things, but a legit pro bowler).
(2) Can the Patriots win playoff games and maybe even a Super Bowl with Mac? Who knows, but I think it's possible. Other teams have won recently with not great QBs: Eli won twice. Joe Flacco won. The corpse of Peyton Manning won (obviously an all time great, but when the Broncos won it with him, he was HORRIFICALLY bad and had the worst arm in the league at that point). Nick Foles won (ugh). Even Matthew Stafford, who is talented, isn't an "elite" QB, and he won. In the last 11 years, that's 5 teams that have won with very much non-elite QBs at the helm. So I think, if BB builds the team right, that they can win it with Mac.
(3) How long will it take to get there? Again, who knows. I think it'll be a while. Like, maybe 3-4 years from now when Mac is a true veteran, and these players from these recent successful drafts have matured. That's probably when they will be true contenders at the earliest. Of course it doesn't help that the AFC is frigging LOADED so even if Mac reaches his ceiling by then, it might not be enough, but who knows.
Mac won 10 games in his rookie season, despite his limitations. Very few rookie QBs win that much. Mac isn't an elite QB. Maybe he never will be. But I think it's crazy that some folks think he's basically hit his ceiling or is already essentially a failure, which if you listen to talk radio (maybe a bad idea on my part) is what you hear a lot.The problem with your "growing pains" argument is that you're assuming that the good outweighs the bad and that's what folks are trying to tell you, it doesn't and hasn't. Sure he might develop a bit more to be a net positive on this team, but other elite QBs were winning games on their own while having "growing pains". Mac Jones can't afford to have a lot of those, especially when his strength is basically being a game manager that doesn't make mistakes. There's not a lot of room for him to make mistakes. The other guys you listing had so many other positive attributes that it's not even a fair comparison.
At this point, Mac is closer to Ryan Fitzpatrick than he is to any of those guys you listed.
Personally I am not saying he's hit his ceiling. What I am pushing back on is your assertion that his ceiling is "probably" a lot higher than what we've seen so far. There's literally nothing behind that assertion. It might be true, but it also might not be true, and recent history suggests guys simply don't develop as NFL QBs in that way. We have no choice but to HOPE that his ceiling is higher than what we've seen so far, but there's absolutely no guarantee that it is.Mac won 10 games in his rookie season, despite his limitations. Very few rookie QBs win that much. Mac isn't an elite QB. Maybe he never will be. But I think it's crazy that some folks think he's basically hit his ceiling or is already essentially a failure, which if you listen to talk radio (maybe a bad idea on my part) is what you hear a lot.
I agree with you that right now there's not a lot of room for Mac to make mistakes right now.
This is by far my biggest concern. I truly do not understand Bill's approach to offensive coaching, and I'm struggling to see how this will be the optimal way to develop Mac. I mean, we don't even have an experienced, dedicated QB coach.That said, the apparent organizational/Belichick decision to go with an offensive coordinator by committee could really hamper his potential to exceed his physical limitations. We don't know the inner workings, of course, but the optics of having Belichick, Patricia, Judge and Hoyer all circled around him was not encouraging.
The Patriots held 7 of those 10 opponents to 13 or fewer points.... a lot more QBs would win games as rookies if they had elite defensive output (I don't think the D was elite, but in wins the output was usually great against mostly bad teams). Mac is solid, Mac will likely get a bit better... there isn't any particular reason to think he's going to get MUCH better... most QBs like him don't. The explosion guys are usually the elite athletic talents.Mac won 10 games in his rookie season, despite his limitations. Very few rookie QBs win that much. Mac isn't an elite QB. Maybe he never will be. But I think it's crazy that some folks think he's basically hit his ceiling or is already essentially a failure, which if you listen to talk radio (maybe a bad idea on my part) is what you hear a lot.
I agree with you that right now there's not a lot of room for Mac to make mistakes right now.
The Pats offense was 5th in weighted DVOA in 2021 - so this wasn't some record based purely on the defense. The passing offense was 10th in DVOA. Apparently the Pats ceiling with a rookie Mac is 5th overall in total offense.The Patriots held 7 of those 10 opponents to 13 or fewer points.... a lot more QBs would win games as rookies if they had elite defensive output (I don't think the D was elite, but in wins the output was usually great against mostly bad teams). Mac is solid, Mac will likely get a bit better... there isn't any particular reason to think he's going to get MUCH better... most QBs like him don't. The explosion guys are usually the elite athletic talents.
Yeah, if MJ's career approaches Brees (mentioned above as comp) or Matty Ice, I'm gonna need one of those bent carrot pills.Who wouldn’t take Mac turning to Ryan, a former MVP, 4-time pro bowler, etc. He’s probably a top 15 QB of all time
I think he'll end up being a guy who makes several legit pro bowls (never a serious MVP candidate), makes a few deep runs in the playoffs, and generally leads quality teams. Not sure they'll win a SB with him but I do think it's possible.Yeah, if MJ's career approaches Brees (mentioned above as comp) or Matty Ice, I'm gonna need one of those bent carrot pills.
I wonder if we can be on Hard Knocks next year? I kinda like the Lions after watching the tragedy and comedy of their training camp unfold.
Edit: typos, weirdness