Who are assumed other potent3b FA’s after ‘23? Devers collapse has to be considered in either an extension or watching how he is next season
Triston Casas promoted, Bobby Dalbec demoted
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
You could always, uhh, trade Devers for Ohtani and Rendon, and extend Ohtani instead... The trade sim thinks that's lopsided in the Angels favor, which means it's probably a fair deal.
edit: It would be sort of like the Hanley for Lowell/Beckett trade redux.
Apologies for the poor post earlier but seriously wondering how Devers REALLY crappy 2nd half will affect any extension. I imagine especially now he’ll want to go to arb in ‘23 and hopefully have a Judge-like (ha!) pre-FA year.
I'd compare that to Betts (superstar) + Price (sunk cost) for Dodgers' prospects. Ohtani (superstar) + Rendon (sunk cost) fetching the Angels someone as good as Devers would be a major bonanza for them.
Can't say I wouldn't absolutely love having Ohtani on the team, though.
Yeah, as I mentioned, the sim thinks that is lopsided in the Angels favor, but I think BTV might be understating Ohtani's value pretty considerably.
The comp you put out there is interesting, except Ohtani (if he's extendable) is worth a lot more than Betts, while Rendon is probably less of a disaster going forward than Price. And we'd be dealing just one year of Devers.
But more seriously, the idea was a response to a scenario in which we're feeling cagey about extending Devers for top dollar, which I am not. But as SLT says, maybe Devers now wants to have another good year before negotiating a long term deal.
I'm pretty sure that we could offer any ten assets from the Red Sox organization, and they wouldn't trade us Ohtani. No point in anyone getting their hopes up there. Guy is a bigtime brand.
Maybe, but this season is in line with all his other seasons. I think sometimes we focus too much on streaks and not the overall production. It was just regression to the mean. He didn't establish a new baseline, he had a good first half. Don't pay him for that 1st half production, just like they didn't pay Mookie for 2018 production.
I was daydreaming about this kind of deal last week or so, thinking there'd be some way to slide Story to short and plug Rendon in at second base, where he played coming up. But I think that's probably one too many question marks and prefer to keep Devers.
I'd still like to be the team on the business end of an Ohtani/Rendon deal if it happens this winter. Rendon is a terrific hitter and a good bet to rebound, I'd say. He's got legendary wrists -- they'd immediately become the second-best on the Sox.
And it should have been 7 BB. I think he has the best command of the strike zone of any young Sox hitter since Youk.
Slashing .125/.300/.375 on a .069 BAbip. He may be slow out of the gate, but not that slow. He is 2/29 putting the ball in play. That's some absolutely brutal luck.
With below average luck (.275 BAbip), he'd have 6 more hits and would be slashing .250/.400/.500. With average luck (.310 BAbip), he would have 7 more hits, for a line of .271/.417/.521.
I've went over his struggles vs lefties enough on this board. He doesn't hit for any type of power versus lefties at all but he does draw a lot of walks. I wouldn't be surprised to see him slash something like .225/.360/.300 vs L. I think he'll get on base enough vs lefties to be playable. This is especially true since he's young and has less than 400 PA in his career vs lefties. There's probably considerable room for growth.
The power split is absurd though. If his thought process versus lefties is to draw a walk, it might be the right one.
Still, I'm encouraged and expect the luck to come around. He should hold his own next year. At least vs R. 20% BB% and 25% K% in the early going. 6bb/5k in his last 8 games and 26 PA. 12bb/15k in 60 PA total.
Only thing I slightly worry about are his comments. They sound extremely similar to comments Lars Anderson made. Some people believe Lars Anderson failed not because of skill, but because he beat himself up to much when he failed. They aren't very similar as prospects though. Casas hit at the higher levels. And people are different. Casas could be motivated by failure, Lars definitely wasn't.
I'm sure lots of players are their own harshest critic though. Lars has also somewhat admitted he didn't really have the mental toughness for the MLB. He's wrote some pretty interesting pieces though. Here's one about retirement.
With below average luck (.275 BAbip), he'd have 6 more hits and would be slashing .250/.400/.500. With average luck (.310 BAbip), he would have 7 more hits, for a line of .271/.417/.521.
I've went over his struggles vs lefties enough on this board. He doesn't hit for any type of power versus lefties at all but he does draw a lot of walks. I wouldn't be surprised to see him slash something like .225/.360/.300 vs L. I think he'll get on base enough vs lefties to be playable. This is especially true since he's young and has less than 400 PA in his career vs lefties. There's probably considerable room for growth.
The power split is absurd though. If his thought process versus lefties is to draw a walk, it might be the right one.
Still, I'm encouraged and expect the luck to come around. He should hold his own next year. At least vs R. 20% BB% and 25% K% in the early going. 6bb/5k in his last 8 games and 26 PA. 12bb/15k in 60 PA total.
Only thing I slightly worry about are his comments. They sound extremely similar to comments Lars Anderson made. Some people believe Lars Anderson failed not because of skill, but because he beat himself up to much when he failed. They aren't very similar as prospects though. Casas hit at the higher levels. And people are different. Casas could be motivated by failure, Lars definitely wasn't.
I'm sure lots of players are their own harshest critic though. Lars has also somewhat admitted he didn't really have the mental toughness for the MLB. He's wrote some pretty interesting pieces though. Here's one about retirement.
Depends on how you define best command of the strike zone. I'd argue Pedroia was as good as Youk and came 2 years later. That Mookie guy was pretty good too.
The patience is impressive. I think he'll start producing more, as he gets more strikes.
God help the pitcher that confuses him with Dalbec.
Aaron Judge is another giant human being who first came up late in the season and struggled some, he hit .179 down the stretch in 2016. He then had a 2017 season almost as good as the one he is having now, but this quote from mid-2017 is relevant to your point here:
"MIAMI (AP) — Aaron Judge keeps the only piece of motivation he needs on his phone.
It's right there on his notes app, always atop the list for quick access. He looks at it every day and said he's done so for months, letting it serve as the perfect provider of perspective.
The message: .179 — a nod to what he hit last season in his debut with the New York Yankees.
That seems unfathomable now. The Yankees star leads the majors with 30 home runs, is a serious Triple Crown contender in the AL with a .329 average and 66 RBIs so far, and the massive guy who wasn't even a lock to make the big-league club out of spring training is set for his All-Star debut on Tuesday night at Marlins Park."
I agree that he’s been far more promising than his line, especially the average looks, but what do we make of the exit velocity, hard hit, and LD/GB stats? Given that the homers and walks are there, and we’ll above average, and the K rate isn’t too bad, I’m guessing it’s probably just a small sample size thing?
Casas is weird too though.
Across all levels this year
Vs R: 291 PA, 42bb/51k. 14.4% BB, 17.5% K%.
Vs L: 103 PA, 19bb/34k. 18.4% BB, 33.0% K%.
I would say he's the best since Pedroia, but his numbers versus Lefties are so bad and they bring the rest of his numbers more in line with Youk or a Ben 10.
Talking specifically command of the strike zone. Vs lefties, he strikes out or walks in more than 50% of his PA. He also has 0 HR. So he's 2 true outcomes vs L.
To add some stats to the previous post I made
37 extra base hits, 16 HRs and an ISO of .288 vs R. .280/.385/.568
3 extra base hits, 0 HRs and an ISO of .036 vs L. .193/.350/.229
Like I said in the previous post, he may get on base enough vs L to be playable. He'd have to be terribad not to play vs L with a .350 obp. But a .229 slugging percentage is terribad.
It'll be curious how they approach it. I think if he's getting on base that much, you just go with the growing pains.
Across all levels this year
Vs R: 291 PA, 42bb/51k. 14.4% BB, 17.5% K%.
Vs L: 103 PA, 19bb/34k. 18.4% BB, 33.0% K%.
I would say he's the best since Pedroia, but his numbers versus Lefties are so bad and they bring the rest of his numbers more in line with Youk or a Ben 10.
Talking specifically command of the strike zone. Vs lefties, he strikes out or walks in more than 50% of his PA. He also has 0 HR. So he's 2 true outcomes vs L.
To add some stats to the previous post I made
37 extra base hits, 16 HRs and an ISO of .288 vs R. .280/.385/.568
3 extra base hits, 0 HRs and an ISO of .036 vs L. .193/.350/.229
Like I said in the previous post, he may get on base enough vs L to be playable. He'd have to be terribad not to play vs L with a .350 obp. But a .229 slugging percentage is terribad.
It'll be curious how they approach it. I think if he's getting on base that much, you just go with the growing pains.
A sarcastic post would compare him to Dalbec. Or advocate trading him on his barrel percentage or launch angle.
But I'll be good and say, "Nothing."
Do they have those numbers available in the minors? He has hit a ton of GB which doesn't help his BAbip but a .069 is not maintainable.
According to fangraphs, the sample size is 33 this year. 85.1 mph EV, 2 barrels (6.1%), 13 hard hit (39.4%). Max EV was 108.6.
League average for hard hit is 38.4%. A 6-9% barrel rating is average. 10-15% is good. If he had 1 more barrel, he's at 9.1%. I'd guess it's just sample size. 1 different outcome changes him from average to bad or good.
edit: Another way to look at it is the difference between hitting .290 and .300 over the course of 100 at bats. It's literally one hit. Casas is at or within striking range of average.
Interesting, BR’s #s are way different- they’ve got him at the below vs. league average.
83.3 EV (league average 88)
33.3% hard hit (38.4%)
6.1% line drive (23.7%)
60.6% ground ball (42.7%)
30.3% fly ball (25.7%)
But yeah you are totally right in that a few line drives / hard hit balls can move these #s a lot, and the BB, K, HR #s all look good to great.
83.3 EV (league average 88)
33.3% hard hit (38.4%)
6.1% line drive (23.7%)
60.6% ground ball (42.7%)
30.3% fly ball (25.7%)
But yeah you are totally right in that a few line drives / hard hit balls can move these #s a lot, and the BB, K, HR #s all look good to great.
Some of those numbers are available at the minor league level. (Fangraphs)
2019 (A): 19.3% LD%, 42.8% GB%, 37.9% FB%, 25.9% IFFB%, 16.4% HR/FB%
2021 (AA): 16.3% LD%, 42.8% GB%, 42.3% FB% 16.5% IFFB%, 15.3% HR/FB%
2022 (AAA): 30.8% LD%, 36.4% GB%, 32.8% FB%. 15.4% IFFB%, 16.9% HR/FB%
Infield fly ball % is the percentage of FBs that are in the infield. Casas's numbers are on the high side but it's not a huge deal considering how often the situation happens. The numbers say if it's a flyball, it's just as likely to be a HR or a pop up. Each event occurs about every 6 FB.
In 317 PA/264 AB at AAA
10 popups on 65 FB
11 HR on 65 FB
He also had 5 LD HRs.
--
Anyway, those numbers are very interesting. Up until this year, he wasn't much of a line drive hitter. He was hitting nothing but lasers in 2022. Talking almost twice as often as 2021 and 1.6 times as often as 2019.
0/19 HRs in 2019 were LDs.
0/14 HRs in 2021 were LDs.
5/16 HRs in 2022 were LDs.
I'm even more encouraged. The underlying numbers are impressive.
edit: He had 61 LD (317 PA) in AAA this year. In 2021, he had 40 (371 PA). In 2019, he had 60 (500 PA).
I think that the key is looking at his chase rate (absurdly low) and z-contact rate (a little below average). The latter (79.5%) is basically the same as Rafael Devers this year, who has a few years in the league (including trying to hit lefties). The former (15.1%) is way better than any season whose data is available in FG for Youk (2007-2013) and would lead the league this year by a lot if he qualified. There's only one regular under 20%.
Guy is a strike zone wizard whose contact rate in his first 60 major league plate appearances is near league average. He'll be fine.
Swinging Strike % is available for minors too. In his 60 PA at the MLB, it's currently 10.9%.
2019: 13.3%
2021: 9.5%
2022: 14.4%
Weird dip in 2021 after missing a year and skipping over a level.
2019: 13.3%
2021: 9.5%
2022: 14.4%
Weird dip in 2021 after missing a year and skipping over a level.
Also, why doesn't contact % and Swinging Strike % add up to 100%? What am I missing?
If contact % is the total amount of contact made when swinging at a pitch... what other outcome is there but contact or a swing and miss?
69.1% and 10.9% adds up to 80%. Where is the other 20 coming from? It's not called strikes because contact % requires you to swing.
If contact % is the total amount of contact made when swinging at a pitch... what other outcome is there but contact or a swing and miss?
69.1% and 10.9% adds up to 80%. Where is the other 20 coming from? It's not called strikes because contact % requires you to swing.
I thought that too but it says contact. Not fair contact. Maybe the contact % number is based on total swings while the swinging % is based on total pitches? I think that's it, actually. It is balls. It's not effecting the contact % number, but it is impacting the K% number.
If he swings 300 times and misses 70 times, his contact % is 81.1%. Where as if he misses 70 times but sees 650 pitches, his swinging strike % is 10.8%.
Swinging K% isn't measuring how often they "whiff" when they swing. When Casas actually swings the bat, he misses 30.9% of the time. I have no clue how that stacks up amongst other players.
Huh. I never thought of that. It's possible for a player to miss the ball 70% of the time when they swing the bat but they could still have a swinging strike % of 10.0%. That player would probably really suck.
That line v. lefties would never continue - those lines just dont exist long term in the majors. If he consistently shows he cant drive the ball against lefties, lefties will force him to hit. and either he hits grooved pitches or he becomes unplayable as the BB rate craters. You're basically describing an even worse version of 2021/2022 JBJ - once his power dropped off, his walk rate cratered. with a 030 ISO, no one is going to bother being careful. Those are NL pitcher AVG/ISO numbers.
Personally, I'm bullish on him solving it, but I dont think that current state (most of which was done in the minors) can be maintained.
This guy says what? Of course, that guy was also considerably faster... so you'd think pitchers would be even more careful not to walk him. I read an article somewhere once that said it's actually the hitter who has more control over whether they walk or not. It was also 15-20 years ago so things change.
5528 PA vs RHP, .290/.370/.327. 617bb/655k in 5528 PA. 11.1 BB%/11.8% K%. ISO of .037. .327 BAbip.
I don't disagree with you that much but these players do exist. They are rare. Plus doing it for a year or so is different than doing it for a career. If he can put up a .350 OBP vs L next year, it'd be hard to complain given he's learning on the job. Even if it isn't maintainable long term. That's assuming he makes some improvements during the season and starts to do something more maintainable.
Luis Castillo had elite bat to ball skills and 70 speed. How is he comparable to a guy who is striking out 33% of the time with maybe 40 speed? There are definitely people who can maintain some level of walk rate with above average contact ability even with minimal power - that describes your 90s and early 2000s leadoff prototype. The sum package of Luis Castillo was an average bat because he didnt strike out. Casas's line against lefties is a guy who cant hit at all if he doesnt walk.
That line is more consistent (other than the walks) to pitchers hitting. Walk rates for pitchers hitting ranged in the 2.5-3%.
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You said pitchers would no longer be careful to a player with a .030 ISO and yet Luis Castillo continued to walk anyway. There are plenty of noodle bats who walked. Do you really think pitchers are walking Luis Castillo out of fear or do you think maybe Luis Castillo had something to do with that?
Drawing a walk is a skill. I'm sure Casas won't continue to walk 18.4% of the time. Not many do. At the same time, I'm sure it's not going to cater to 6% and that other teams will start grooving pitches down the plate. I'm also pretty sure he won't continue to have an ISO of .030 but he's been trending backwards in that regard so here's hoping.
Either way, he's probably going to be an issue vs lefties the next few years. It'd be nice if he could get on base a little bit at least and he's drawn a ton of walks to date. I guess we'll see how much of it is a skill vs how much of it is fear.
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I didnt imply (or mean to imply) that it needed to be power. He needs to be able to hit to some degree beyond a pitcher - Luis Castillo could hit (~10% K rate, .295 career BA) - he also never really had an ISO that low either. Luis Castillo did it because he knew and the zone and could put the bat on the ball. Casas walks because he is patient and knows the zone. If he can't hit (and by hit it doesnt mean he needs to crush home runs - only be competent rather than a pitcher's line) otherwise that isnt going to be enough - pitchers will just start challenging him. At whcih point, he either hits the easier pitches and is playable or he doesnt and isnt.
The typical way for guys like him (and most guys recently) is to be able crush pitches that grab too much of the plate (e.g., Gallo before he tanked, Schwarber, etc.). It doesnt have to be that way, but it surely is not going to be the way that Luis Castillo of the ~10% K rate did it.
Nope. The number of events are different. A foul ball is contact. Taking a called strike is not swinging the bat.
Swinging strike % is based on all pitches. Contact % is based only on pitches you swing at.
Luis Castillo did have an ISO that low. I literally posted the sample size. He had an ISO of .037 over 5000 PA vs R. How can you say he didn't have an ISO that low? It's literally factual. This is like the 5th time you have argued actual facts and results with me, though most is always on the minor league forum. Why? It's fact dude.
We are talking about Casas vs LHP, not overall. It's Castillo vs RHP. He had an ISO of .125 vs lefties that brought his career ISO up to .061.
Again, vs R, he hit .290 and and slugged .327 in 5228 PA vs right handers. I mean, I guess .037 isn't as low as .030. Care to explain how his ISO was never really that low? I'd love to hear you argue against math.
Ok, fair enough - I was looking at his career numbers . I dont know why you're focusing on a collateral mistake - that wasnt the point of the post and my last post made that quite clear. The point here isnt that he needs to hit for power - he needs to do something competently against LHP; not be as incapable as a random pitcher.
To be completely clear - he needs to do something with the bat. Castillo did something with the bat - he didnt hit .150 against RHer - he hit .290. Please let me know how a RHH with a 11% K rate against righties is comparable to a LHH with a 33% K rate against lefties? Or a guy who hit 290 is comparable to a guy who is hitting .150. That was my point - he needs to do something that isnt hitting like a pitcher. He can start hitting for power or he could start only striking out 20% of the time. Or hitting fewer ground balls or fewer pop-ups. Or a combination of all or some of them. Nothing is not going to lead to someone who is close to playable against lefites.
It's not and I never said it was. You said guys didn't exist with ISOs that low and I pointed out one that exists. You always assume things when I post factual things. When I said Blaze Jordan hadn't hit for any power since his first few games in Greenville... you decided to tell me it was a small sample size. What? I didn't say anything about it being predictable. It's what happened.
Ok, the comment was always made in the context of his entire line because that is who was being discussed. I can see the exact words you are pulling out that say that, but the comment wasnt meant to be so broad as to attach to anyone. It was made specific to him. I completely agree that a high contact guy can be very successful (including a high walk rate) with minimal power. Unless Casas's entire profile changes, he is not that guy.
The impact of Casas and Bello on the roster for peanuts next year and beyond, if they truly are for real, will be like adding 40 mil+ to the budget.
Definitely providing some optimism for the future.
I don’t think it’s the same…. But I can’t think about recent amazing starts by Dalbec and others recently…
I don’t think it’s the same…. But I can’t think about recent amazing starts by Dalbec and others recently…
Loving his crazy splits. .343 OBP and .446 SLG with a .179 batting average. 14 walks, 5 home runs, 5 singles and that's it.
Devers also injured his hamstring in July and was slow coming back. His September numbers are fine. He's exactly the same guy as always.
That was the entire point of my post. He's the same guy as before. He's a 130-140 OPS+ hitter.
At the end of August 2nd, Devers was slashing .326/.380/.612.
He's now at .293/.353/.523 with an OPS+ of 140.
His career line is .282/.341/.512 with an OPS+ of 124. OPS+ of 136 since 2021.
He's exactly the same guy as always, indeed.
He's now at .293/.353/.523 with an OPS+ of 140.
His career line is .282/.341/.512 with an OPS+ of 124. OPS+ of 136 since 2021.
He's exactly the same guy as always, indeed.
This is a good overall observation. I think Devers has a full, consistent, excellent season or two in him, where he’s a 180 OPS+ guy. And a few more 140 seasons. If that’s accurate, what do you pay to keep him, and for how many years? Especially in light of our cheaper prospects taking spots on the roster?