I'm going to put my take here for posterity, not to argue and what not. I haven't read much of the thread, so I apologize in advance if I'm repeating things that have already been said.
I've generally defended Bloom. I think he's gotten way more hate than he deserves, and I think that firing him could very likely end up proving to be a mistake. I don't think Bloom is perfect either and wouldn't even call myself a "fan" of Bloom. Here's my rationale:
After the 2019 season, my view of the team was decidedly not sanguine. The 2019 club had a lot of talent, but the performance was decidedly mediocre. 84 wins and 9 games out of a wildcard was a depressing followup to 2018. The team had the highest payroll in MLB in 2019 and had pushed past the tax limit for two years running. The clock was about to run out on Betts with Bogaerts, Devers, and JDM looming in the following years. To make matters even worse, the Red Sox were generally considered to have one of if not
the worst farm systems in baseball. And to make matters even worse than that, 3 divisional rivals were often ranked in the top 15, with the Rays near the top of the list and the Blue Jays still clocking in toward the middle of the pack despite graduating Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio.
I didn't see any chance for the Red Sox to compete over the next few years short of a miracle. There just wasn't any realistic way to get better over the short term -- a roster that already isn't good enough, a budget that is already stretched thin, and no help coming from the farm. Furthermore all of our rivals were poised to get better over the next few years due to their farm systems bearing fruit if nothing else.
I was anticipating a few years of doldrums at the very least. I know that some folks have bandied about the idea that the Red Sox were basically competitive from the 2000's through Bloom's hiring, but that just isn't true. Following the 2011 collapse, the Red Sox had
terrible seasons in 2012 and 2014 and a bad season in 2015. 2013 came out of absolute nowhere and was surrounded by suck. Then the Sox were very good for 2016-2018 and mediocre in 2019.
It sure seemed like we were headed for a cyclical pattern of garbage seasons followed by excellence followed by more garbage. I thought we were headed for 2012-15 only without the fluke in the middle.
When Bloom was hired, his vision seemed to provide a possible out to that pattern -- pursue success in the mold of the Dodgers. I didn't think a short term fix was possible, but at the very least I hoped that Bloom's approach would provide us with another window toward the middle of the 2020's and then launch into a more perennial cycle of competitiveness as opposed to a boom/bust pattern.
2020 went basically as I expected. The 2021 season came as a complete surprise, much like 2013 only without quite getting all the way. The past two years have been middling, but far from dire performance of 2014 or even 2015. The division is tougher by a margin, and the Red Sox have played meaningful baseball fairly late into the season for both of the past two years. Some of that is due to the expansion of the playoffs, but even with said expansion the 2014-15 Sox would not have been going nearly as deep into the summer if my memory serves. Bloom has managed to do that largely by hitting big on small ticket free agents, much like the 2013 Sox. While not every Bloom acquisition has worked out and a couple have been really bad, I think overall the moves that he has made have been very good.
Meanwhile, the farm system has exceeded my expectations. Bloom's organization has developed more talent than expected out of the bottom-rung farm system that he inherited, and he has stocked the farm impressively with his own contributions.
I think where a lot of valid criticism of Bloom lies is in his non-moves. My impression is that Bloom may be a bit too much of a value hound, and that sometimes perfect gets in the way of the good. Quite a bit of the scuttlebutt following the firing has added weight to this idea, although it's hard to know if that's just the narrative that's being pushed or if there is a factual basis. Regardless, there are quite a few moments when it seemed like Bloom should do something and failed to do so. If indeed there were opportunities that Bloom failed to capitalize on because of maximizing or indecision, then he absolutely deserves criticism for that.
If ownership sees a path to improve upon Bloom's vision by hiring someone who live up to Bloom on the things that Bloom did well while improving upon the areas that he did poorly, then I can understand moving on. I'm definitely concerned though that we're going to see a change in direction that will tilt us back toward the cyclical pattern instead of perennial contention, and I think there's a nonzero risk that the next guy will end up ruining the next contention window on top of that. I hope that doesn't happen.
TL;DR:
- Before Bloom's hiring, I was expecting 2020-2023 to look like 2012-2015 but without the out-of-nowhere 2013 result
- Under Bloom, 2020 was just as expected, 2021 was way better than I expected, and 2022-23 were moderately better than I expected. Basically I was anticipating a couple of F's and a couple of D's, and we got an F, an A (maybe A- if you're a tough grader), and a pair of C+'s. It seems to me that there is a lot of hindsight criticism that he could have maybe gotten those C+'s to B's, and I can't disagree with that, but I also think that discounts the very real accomplishments of turning those F's and D's into C+'s to begin with (not to mention the lucky A).
- Bloom got more out of the farm he inherited than I expected and did a fantastic job of building onto it
- Bloom's lack of action at a few junctures could well have been significant unforced errors. We don't know for sure what opportunities were out there, but if he missed some because he was trying to maximize or was being indecisive, then I think that's a pretty big mark against him.
- There's definitely room for improvement, but there's also a ton of downside risk. I'm more afraid of the downside risk right now than the upside, given that the team should be on the ascendant anyway. Even if the org stays the course, there's no guarantee that Bloom's replacement will outperform him, and worse yet if they mortgage the farm too aggressively we could easily end up in a repeat of 2011/2019 much sooner and have to do it all over again.