I'd been preparing this post before Bloom's firing, but it obviously strikes a different note now. This hypothetical came up in conversation with an anti-Bloomer friend and I've been thinking a lot about it. Could make an interesting exercise.
Which AL East franchise(s)' next five seasons (2024-28) would you rather have over the Red Sox?
Select all that apply and explain your answer—and if you like, how you'd rank them—in the comments.
The Red Sox farm system is better off than it was in 2020. Most system rankings in 2020 had us between 25th and 30th in MLB, and the major-league team had very few long-term assets in the black. FanGraphs had us 29th in 2020; now we're 4th. The future looks pretty good, I'd say.
However, the AL East, already a perpetual juggernaut, may be stronger than ever. And the way it seems, the teams with the least spending power are the best set up for success over the next few seasons. Will those teams spend? Will the Sox, captained by a new FO, push a $300 million payroll like other big-market teams?
Who knows what the next few seasons will bring. But knowing what you know now, which team would you rather have?
CBT thresholds
2024 - $237M
2025 - $241M
2026 - $244M
Baltimore
Farm system rank (per FG): #8
Notes: Incredibly loaded young team whose window has opened a year or two early. Prospects lean toward position players. Historically limited spending power, but literally no financial commitments past 2024.
Notable players under team control: Santander (FA '25), Mullins, Mountcastle (FA '26), Rutschman, Batista, Kremer, Baker (FA '28), Bradish, Henderson, Cano (FA '29), Rodriguez (FA '30)
Top prospects (per FG): Holliday (Future Value 60), Mayo (55), Ortiz (50), Kjerstad (45+), Povich, Cowser, Norby, Hall, Beavers, Bradfield Jr., Fabian (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): none
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $87 million (29/30)
2024 $ commitments (rank): $6 million (30/30)
2025 $ commitments: 0 (30/30)
2026 $ commitments: 0 (30/30)
Boston
Farm system rank (per FG): #3
Notes: Surging farm system with top-level prospects leaning heavily toward position players, though some interesting arms in the lower levels. Historically elite spending power with recent question marks. PoBo/GM in transition.
Notable players under team control: Jansen, Martin (FA '25), Houck, Story, Yoshida (FA '28), Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Whitlock, Wong (FA '29), Devers (FA '34)
Top prospects (per FG): Mayer, Bleis (55), Rafaela, Yorke (50), Anthony, Teel (45+), Alcantara, Bastardo, Drohan, Gonzalez, Romero, Zanetello (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Story (-35.8), Sale (-11.8, FA), Turner (-9.8), Whitlock (-9.8)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $224 million (11/30)
2024 $ commitments: $137 million (7/30)
2025 $ commitments: $76 million (13/30)
2026 $ commitments: $81 million (9/30)
New York
Farm system rank (per FG): #25
Notes: Top-notch international scouting. Elite spending power. Two of the game's best players signed to long-term deals with a sudden absence of role players. Restless fan base, potential for front office/managerial change. Good building block in Volpe.
Notable players under team control: Rizzo (FA '24), German, Holmes, Loiasiga, Torres (FA '25), Cortes, King (FA '26), LeMahieu (FA '27), Schmidt, Stanton (FA '28), Rodón, Volpe (FA '29), Cole (FA '29 or '30), Judge (FA '32)
Top prospects (per FG): Dominguez (50), Pereira (45+), Sweeney, Warren, Thorpe, Jones, Lombard Jr., Mayea (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Stanton (-72), Rizzo (-16.1), Cole (-13.7), LeMahieu (-8.6)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $294 million (2/30)
2024 $ commitments: $186 million (2/30)
2025 $ commitments: $163 million (1/30)
2026 $ commitments: $146 million (1/30)
Tampa Bay
Farm system rank (per FG): #4
Notes: Excellent player development system. Tons of team-controlled talent. OTOH, they just lost a massively valuable franchise shortstop indefinitely, lost one ace to TJS and, if history is any guide, may trade another (Glasnow, 1/$25). Does their pitching philosophy lend itself to increased injury?
Notable players under team control: Glasnow, Kittredge (FA '25), Civale, Diaz, Eflin, Margot (FA '26), Arozarena, Fairbanks, B. Lowe, Rasmussen, Springs (FA '27), Baz, McClanahan, Paredes, Siri (FA '28), J. Lowe (FA '29), Bradley (FA '30)
Top prospects (per FG): Caminero, Mead, Williams (FV 55), Montgomery (45+), Basabe, Taylor, Colmenarez (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Franco (-163) *contract may be voided
2023 payroll/lux tax projection:
2024 $ commitments: $74 million (19/30 - *includes Franco)
2025 $ commitments: $54 million (17/30 - *includes Franco)
2026 $ commitments: $27 million (22/30 - *includes Franco)
Toronto
Farm system rank (per FG): #22
Notes: Terrific team whose window is now—in fact, it may be slowly closing. Toronto has spent big on Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Varsho, Springer, Ryu, Chapman, Merrifield, and have one Wild Card series loss to show for it. Solid, if aging, core built around Guerrero and Bichette.
Notable players under team control: Kikuchi, Jansen, Merrifield (FA '25) Bassitt, Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Romano (FA '26) Gausman, Kirk, Springer (FA '27), Manoah (FA '28), Berrios (FA '29)
Top prospects (per FG): Tiedemann (FV 55), Barriera (45+), Barger, Jimenez, Kasevich, Martinez, Nimmala, Macko, Zulueta, Lopez (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Berrios (-23.9), Bassitt (-19.6)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $248 million (6/30)
2024 $ commitments: $114 million (11/30)
2025 $ commitments: $105 million (7/30)
2026 $ commitments: $66 million (14/30)
I used FanGraphs payroll breakdowns, didn't bother getting into details on specific contract provisions. Aiming for a broad overview but let me know if anything's substantially off, omitted or inaccurate.
Which AL East franchise(s)' next five seasons (2024-28) would you rather have over the Red Sox?
Select all that apply and explain your answer—and if you like, how you'd rank them—in the comments.
The Red Sox farm system is better off than it was in 2020. Most system rankings in 2020 had us between 25th and 30th in MLB, and the major-league team had very few long-term assets in the black. FanGraphs had us 29th in 2020; now we're 4th. The future looks pretty good, I'd say.
However, the AL East, already a perpetual juggernaut, may be stronger than ever. And the way it seems, the teams with the least spending power are the best set up for success over the next few seasons. Will those teams spend? Will the Sox, captained by a new FO, push a $300 million payroll like other big-market teams?
Who knows what the next few seasons will bring. But knowing what you know now, which team would you rather have?
CBT thresholds
2024 - $237M
2025 - $241M
2026 - $244M
Baltimore
Farm system rank (per FG): #8
Notes: Incredibly loaded young team whose window has opened a year or two early. Prospects lean toward position players. Historically limited spending power, but literally no financial commitments past 2024.
Notable players under team control: Santander (FA '25), Mullins, Mountcastle (FA '26), Rutschman, Batista, Kremer, Baker (FA '28), Bradish, Henderson, Cano (FA '29), Rodriguez (FA '30)
Top prospects (per FG): Holliday (Future Value 60), Mayo (55), Ortiz (50), Kjerstad (45+), Povich, Cowser, Norby, Hall, Beavers, Bradfield Jr., Fabian (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): none
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $87 million (29/30)
2024 $ commitments (rank): $6 million (30/30)
2025 $ commitments: 0 (30/30)
2026 $ commitments: 0 (30/30)
Boston
Farm system rank (per FG): #3
Notes: Surging farm system with top-level prospects leaning heavily toward position players, though some interesting arms in the lower levels. Historically elite spending power with recent question marks. PoBo/GM in transition.
Notable players under team control: Jansen, Martin (FA '25), Houck, Story, Yoshida (FA '28), Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Whitlock, Wong (FA '29), Devers (FA '34)
Top prospects (per FG): Mayer, Bleis (55), Rafaela, Yorke (50), Anthony, Teel (45+), Alcantara, Bastardo, Drohan, Gonzalez, Romero, Zanetello (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Story (-35.8), Sale (-11.8, FA), Turner (-9.8), Whitlock (-9.8)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $224 million (11/30)
2024 $ commitments: $137 million (7/30)
2025 $ commitments: $76 million (13/30)
2026 $ commitments: $81 million (9/30)
New York
Farm system rank (per FG): #25
Notes: Top-notch international scouting. Elite spending power. Two of the game's best players signed to long-term deals with a sudden absence of role players. Restless fan base, potential for front office/managerial change. Good building block in Volpe.
Notable players under team control: Rizzo (FA '24), German, Holmes, Loiasiga, Torres (FA '25), Cortes, King (FA '26), LeMahieu (FA '27), Schmidt, Stanton (FA '28), Rodón, Volpe (FA '29), Cole (FA '29 or '30), Judge (FA '32)
Top prospects (per FG): Dominguez (50), Pereira (45+), Sweeney, Warren, Thorpe, Jones, Lombard Jr., Mayea (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Stanton (-72), Rizzo (-16.1), Cole (-13.7), LeMahieu (-8.6)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $294 million (2/30)
2024 $ commitments: $186 million (2/30)
2025 $ commitments: $163 million (1/30)
2026 $ commitments: $146 million (1/30)
Tampa Bay
Farm system rank (per FG): #4
Notes: Excellent player development system. Tons of team-controlled talent. OTOH, they just lost a massively valuable franchise shortstop indefinitely, lost one ace to TJS and, if history is any guide, may trade another (Glasnow, 1/$25). Does their pitching philosophy lend itself to increased injury?
Notable players under team control: Glasnow, Kittredge (FA '25), Civale, Diaz, Eflin, Margot (FA '26), Arozarena, Fairbanks, B. Lowe, Rasmussen, Springs (FA '27), Baz, McClanahan, Paredes, Siri (FA '28), J. Lowe (FA '29), Bradley (FA '30)
Top prospects (per FG): Caminero, Mead, Williams (FV 55), Montgomery (45+), Basabe, Taylor, Colmenarez (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Franco (-163) *contract may be voided
2023 payroll/lux tax projection:
2024 $ commitments: $74 million (19/30 - *includes Franco)
2025 $ commitments: $54 million (17/30 - *includes Franco)
2026 $ commitments: $27 million (22/30 - *includes Franco)
Toronto
Farm system rank (per FG): #22
Notes: Terrific team whose window is now—in fact, it may be slowly closing. Toronto has spent big on Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Varsho, Springer, Ryu, Chapman, Merrifield, and have one Wild Card series loss to show for it. Solid, if aging, core built around Guerrero and Bichette.
Notable players under team control: Kikuchi, Jansen, Merrifield (FA '25) Bassitt, Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Romano (FA '26) Gausman, Kirk, Springer (FA '27), Manoah (FA '28), Berrios (FA '29)
Top prospects (per FG): Tiedemann (FV 55), Barriera (45+), Barger, Jimenez, Kasevich, Martinez, Nimmala, Macko, Zulueta, Lopez (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Berrios (-23.9), Bassitt (-19.6)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $248 million (6/30)
2024 $ commitments: $114 million (11/30)
2025 $ commitments: $105 million (7/30)
2026 $ commitments: $66 million (14/30)
I used FanGraphs payroll breakdowns, didn't bother getting into details on specific contract provisions. Aiming for a broad overview but let me know if anything's substantially off, omitted or inaccurate.
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