No I picked Pickens because he was the next WR drafted after Tyquan and Pickens was a WR that NE had heavily scouted in the lead up to the draft.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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I guess the consideration was, "How can we waste money for a useless, over the hill player who will always come up small in the biggest moments?"
And then they immediately extended Parker.
I had to read this twice because I couldn’t believe it. If this doesn’t scream BB can’t draft I don’t know what does.
If the two sides could work out an extension, the 2020 second-rounder out of Lenoir-Rhyne would be the first draft pick to get a second contract in Foxboro since 2019 fifth-round punter Jake Bailey. He'd be the first top-three-round choice to re-up with the Patriots since 2013 third-rounder Duron Harmon.
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/patriots-prioritize-kyle-dugger-contract-extension-all-in/563059/
If the two sides could work out an extension, the 2020 second-rounder out of Lenoir-Rhyne would be the first draft pick to get a second contract in Foxboro since 2019 fifth-round punter Jake Bailey. He'd be the first top-three-round choice to re-up with the Patriots since 2013 third-rounder Duron Harmon.
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/patriots-prioritize-kyle-dugger-contract-extension-all-in/563059/
not sure that tells us all that much and certainly doesn’t “scream” anything
the first point, about being the first to re-sign since Bailey is obvious and worthless. Dugger was drafted in 2020 and Bailey in 2019. The 2020 class is just coming due now. There would be literally no drafted players between Bailey and Dugger who could have re-upped to this point
the second point sounds damning but first let’s acknowledge that the majority of 2nd and 3rd rounders do not stay beyond their original contract. It’s under 40% for 2nd rounders league wide and less for 3rd rounders. Now let’s look at those olayers
Easley - dud/injury bust
Jimmy G - traded, retaining didnt make sense
Malcom Brown - solid starter on Super Bowl winning defenses
Richards - awful
Grissom - injuries and bad
Cyrus Jones - bad
Thuney - great, should have been retained
Brissett - good value in the 3rd, traded, retaining didn’t make sense
Rivers - injury bust although still in the league
Garcia - medical, never able to play
Wynn - not worth retaining
Michel - traded not worth retaining
Dawson - awful traded
Harry - awful
Williams - awful
Winovich - traded in a good deal for a current contribution (Wilson)
Cajuste - injured and useless
Harris - good probably should have been retained
2014-2019 their lack of success in the 1st round specifically is the problem. Wynn, Michel and Brown all contributed to a Super Bowl winner in key roles so it’s hard for me to call them total flops but certainly they needed one or two long term pieces in that group.
The misses in the 1st round is the big difference between the 2014-2019 drafts and earlier drafts where almost every other year they were getting a long term player (although most of those guys were drafted higher in the round). Luckily Gonzalez seems like he might break that trend
now, do the same exercise for a “good” drafting team like Philadelphia 2014-2019.
Marcus Smith - bad, not retained
Jordan Matthews - bad, not retained
Josh Huff - dud
Nelson Agoholor - not retained
Eric Rowe - not retained
Jordan Hicks - not retained
Carson Wentz - traded
Isaac Seumalo - retained good player
Derek Barnett - retained but not great for a 1st
Sidney Jones - not retained
Rasul Douglas - re-signed then cut same year
Dallas Goedert - retained good player
Andre Dillard - cut
Miles Sanders - not retained
JJ Arcega Whiteside - cut
in that same stretch, the Eagles - a “good” drafting team had a pretty similar looking group of hits, the difference is they kept Goedert, Barnett and Seumalo and the Pats didn’t keep their equivalents (Thuney, M.Brown and Garoppolo).The heralded Howie Roseman also whiffed on almost all his top 2 round picks and failed to get a single long time starter out of those picks. And then in 2020 took Jaelen Reagor over Justin Jefferson before hitting on Hurts.
My point isn’t that Roseman is overrated or BB has had great draft success, simply that “not re-signing” round 1-3 round picks, especially outside of the top 15 guys taken, isn’t a common occurrence.
not going to go through each one, but the Ravens are probably the best in that period, keeping Andrews, Humphrey, Jackson. So they landed 3 cornerstone pieces in a 6 year period which feels like it should be the expected hit rate. They drafted 21 guys rounds 1-3 in that period, with a few hits they didn’t keep (Mosley, Orlando Brown, maybe Hollywood Brown depending on if you view him as a hit)
KC has kept Mahomes, Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi (3 out of 17)
So Baltimore and KC nailed their QB picks, Philly did not.The Pats didn’t retain their best picks (Jimmy G, Thuney, Brown) and were a bit worse than the Ravens and Chiefs in rounds 1-3 but I don’t know that it’s a good argument that BB is significantly worse than other teams at drafting. They certainly had plenty of awful picks in round 1, nobody can deny that but the overall “big hit” rate in the late 1st round is low enough where it’s hard to separate small sample variance from “BB can’t draft”. Cherry pick a different set of data and include Uche, Dugger and Gonzalez and all of a sudden the early round “hits” look better.
Interestingly, the Pats have more guys still in the league drafted (regardless of round) in that period than the other 3 teams mentioned. Not really relevant to this discussion but found it noteworthy. They’ve re-upped Wise, Mason, Bentley, E.Roberts, Bailey, J.White and Cardona in that period for what it’s worth.
I think it’s fair to say the Pats haven’t gotten as much out of their drafts as they should have. But the overall number of guys they’re hitting on isn’t really the issue to me as much as the lack of 1st round guys who are long term players. That said retaining players isn’t the best sign of whether or not a pick is “good”. Trey Flowers was a great 4th round pick, Nate Solder was a good 1st rounder, Karras was excellent for a 6th etc and sometimes retaining those guys doesn’t make sense or isn’t possible.
It has been talked about upthread but Parker's extension saved them about $2.4M on the cap this year. The team is 2.8M under the cap at this point. Parker got some guaranteed money out of the deal including 3.2M in guaranteed salary next year. Hopefully, he's able to come back healthy this season and a team is willing to give up a late round pick for him.
I was in the midst of writing up yearly breakdowns, but NBT818 did it better and faster. Well done!
In recent years, BB did retain a good number of later round players who contributed (James White, Shaq Mason, Elandon Roberts, Deatrich Wise), while higher round picks either bombed out, were traded or were lost to FA. We did franchise Thuney for $14M, but weren't willing to go to the 5/80M that he seems likely to completely earn, unless an injury cuts his career short. He also wasn't going to block for the best QB in football by staying in NE. Keeping a player past the rookie deal is a two way street - they've gotta be good enough to stay, and willing to do so.
In recent years, BB did retain a good number of later round players who contributed (James White, Shaq Mason, Elandon Roberts, Deatrich Wise), while higher round picks either bombed out, were traded or were lost to FA. We did franchise Thuney for $14M, but weren't willing to go to the 5/80M that he seems likely to completely earn, unless an injury cuts his career short. He also wasn't going to block for the best QB in football by staying in NE. Keeping a player past the rookie deal is a two way street - they've gotta be good enough to stay, and willing to do so.
I love BB, but the man is old. We've seen some fucking hauls for head coaches, so...can't hurt to hear what Washington has to say.
Feels extremely unlikely but they do have some serious draft capital now with 5 picks in first 3 rounds. I’d at least listen, if BB is remotely open to the idea.
WAS was one of a list of teams they discussed, and Simmons thought SD was the #1 destination. Note that Simmons has no effing idea what he's talking about.
Speaking of people who don't know what they're talking about, I proposed this idea a month ago. If I could come up with WAS as a potential landing spot a month ago, I'm sure every wagging tongue in the NFL has, too. I'll believe this is real when someone with some real reporting bona fides reports this. I believe PFT has a history of throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks.
I love BB and am in the keep everything as is camp. But if you could get 3 firsts for him, I will drive him to the airport.
No way Bill is going to go to a team with no quarterback, stiff division opponents, AND no draft capital. If he is traded to Washington, it won't be for three firsts.
Bailey Zappe, a player no NFL team even wants as a backup, was drafted at #137 in 2022. Seven picks later the Commanders drafted Sam Howell, a player who is head and shoulders better than Zappe or Mac Jones could even even imagine themelves to be. Is this just one of those "no one could possibly have predicted that Howell would be good" type things, or is it an indictment of the Pats college scouting system?
Howell was a guy if you followed the ACC but then he stated sliding a lot. QB evaluators don’t exist. It’s alchemy
141 teams passed on Howell, so the selection is indicative of random luck than anything else.
Howell was highly rated, considered by some a 1st rounder, heading into his Jr. season then threw for less yards, TDs and more INTs his final season and ended up dropping significantly as a result. Some analysts I follow thought he would still be a viable starter, something never once mentioned about Zappe.
A lot of defenses have been saying that this year, I think Howell may have something. I forgot an arm can look like that.
Yeah but....that throw at the end of the first half. And he only completed 64% of his passes, which by today's standards isn't very good. He made some horrible throws today. If he was Mac, this board would be killing him for the bad plays he had today. Even the "across the body, across the field" completions he had we'd be like, holy crap you CANNOT make that throw.
But, for sure he's got a much better arm than Mac. I think he's a better overall QB too. I'm just saying that he's got PLENTY of holes in his game.
The throw back across the field was super dangerous, but it worked out for him. Some of the other good plays were WRs making people miss in the open field. He was fine, but I wouldn't take him over most of the QBs we faced this season.
You can have holes in your game if you have a good arm, Favre is the archtype of that kinds of QB. Howell has an NFL arm.
Mac doesn't.
Mac doesn't.
Agreed, but....he does have some talent for sure. There IS something there with him.
You can also have holes in your game if you don't have a good arm but you're smart and accurate and a good decision maker.
Mac may not have those things either though.
He’s tough and he’s a gamer and he always gives it his best effort (I.e., he’s not a quitter). Those are positives, and no not everyone has those qualities in the NFL.
But alas, those aren’t enough.
I'm sure Nathan Peterman wasn't a quitter either.
I'm literally trying to think of something he does well and coming up with nothing. He's got a weak arm, he's got terrible mechanics, he makes poor decisions, he's anti-clutch given the number of times he's tried to lead a GW drive and failed, he doesn't run well, he doesn't see the field well, he's not football smart, he works slowly, and he's not a good leader.
Other than that he's fine.
He throws a nice seam pass. He hit Parker and Reagor with perfect deep balls only to have them go right through those WRs hands.
You can say he’s not a good leader but the guys on the team sure indicate that he is, from their comments about Mac. And we don’t have much else to go on - it’s not like any of us are there.
And clearly he has some positives or else he wouldn’t even be in the NFL at all, even as a backup. He’s going to have a long NFL career.
By leader I mean the way he sets up each play and drive. He takes FOREVER to set the protections before a snap and has occurred a ton of delay penalties due to that. His decisions are terrible. And as I said before, he's literally anti-clutch. When the game is on the line he fucks up 90% of the time.
I don't see how any teammate can really believe in him.
No. He’s NFL quality. He may not be starter NFL quality but he’s a legit NFL QB.
Brian Hoyer has had a long NFL career, even if he hasn't won a start in like 10yrs.
He would be a competent back up for a team. He won't be out of the NFL in 3 years. He'll be around.
Could he? Maybe if he changes his mentality. He's wired as a starter without the starter level ability (physical, mechanical or mental).
Look around the NFL. Some teams are stuck starting AWFUL QBs. Mac isn't awful. He's just kind of bad. Teams would love to have him as a backup and who cares how he is wired?
It is funny watching Joshua Dobbs (who has been moved more than Ryan Fitzpatrick) running all over the field, making plays, and winning thrilling games. Meanwhile, we watch. . . .Mac Jones. Dr. Basic.
I also think the team isn't doing Mac any favors. His players fuck him over all the time. Nobody makes a play. Ever. In fact, they consistently don't make any plays.
Whether or not Mac could have a long career as a backup in the NFL is a good question. Earlier this season I would have said "yes" with little hesitation. Now I'm less sure. I thought he was one of those guys who didn't have great tools but made up for it with a good QB brain. And guys without many tools but good brains tend to stick around as backups. They're smart enough to learn what they need to learn to stay ready without getting a lot of reps in practice.
Now I'm not sure. He seems to make too many bad decisions. Maybe that gets worse without starter reps.
Now I'm not sure. He seems to make too many bad decisions. Maybe that gets worse without starter reps.
I'd read the post game comments regarding Kevin o connell and Josh Dobbs in today's game. Apparently he was translating plays on the huddle (Dobbs is legit a rocket scientist), and won with a QB that didn't take a snap in practice with the team and doesn't know most of his teammates names. CJ Stroud threw for 470 yards today and his offensive staff isn't some name brand group of geniuses.
There's some good and great offensive coaching in this sport right now and it isn't in New England.
There's some good and great offensive coaching in this sport right now and it isn't in New England.
Also many passable or better QBs in this league. Enough that you shouldn't fear moving on from Mac fucking Jones. The odds of ending up with significantly worse options are slim to none.
Agreed. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was out of the league in a few years.
Mac beat out the shell of Cam Newton. Since then it’s been his job by default. I’m starting to wonder what 2nd stringer he’s beating out somewhere else. I think he will next year or the year after. But beyond that I think he may just slip out of the league.
It is not just Mac. It's a dearth of talent on the offensive side of the ball. And the system sucks, too. It's just lousy, the Pats never have an explosion of points. It's not possible with the system and the players and with Mac. They aren't good. Across the board.
It is not just Mac.
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