Offseason rumors

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HangingW/ScottCooper

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Bloom’s goal was to build a self sustaining team the consistently produced home grown major league players. The real issue with Bloom was he just did not appear able to take the risk associated with an overpay to bring in someone that gets the Sox to the next level.

I want the Sox to bring in an individual that greatly impacts their winning more games. Sign me up for Gilbert from the Mariners in an overpay. But I worry about someone like Trout as a marque name. Ohtani would be great but team fit is a problem as he’s a DH and selling advertising doesn’t win games.

Yamamoto is the big splash and risk worth taking the chance on. But the competition is fierce. Will he fell the Sox are the right fit for him?
The other thing that Bloom didn't do was take some of the short term assets to generate more minor league depth. It appeared that his strategy was going to be short term deals and then decide at the deadline whether to be a buyer or seller. Basically acquire tradeable assets as free agents so that if that asset has value mid-season on a team that isn't going to make the playoffs the asset can be traded. He didn't do that anywhere near enough.
 

Seels

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It's fine to not like the guy, I'm just not sure you're doing yourself any favors trying to write off his offense entirely. He hit 15% better than Verdugo this year. That's meaningful.
yea that's fine but I doubt you'll find someone on this board that is lower on Verdugo than me, so being 15% better is lipstick on a pig. For $330m you better be absolutely positive he's a 5 win player going forward for the long haul. I am very skeptical of that.
 

JM3

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yea that's fine but I doubt you'll find someone on this board that is lower on Verdugo than me, so being 15% better is lipstick on a pig. For $330m you better be absolutely positive he's a 5 win player going forward for the long haul. I am very skeptical of that.
If he was a 5 win player each year of his contract he'd be a $495m player, not even factoring in inflation.
 

johnlos

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He was #3 in July, and then he was suspended for PEDs in August. Since coming back, his barrel rate has basically halved; the top end exit velo is still up there, but that's not as valuable as the barrels. The wrist injury certainly doesn't help and that may not get any better either. Maybe he gets all the way back, maybe this is just what he is now. And if this is what he is, you're putting an awful amount of weight on a one year sample of defensive statistics to take on a contract that could preclude other moves, like signing Yamamoto.
Steamer has Tatis as the 14th best hitter in baseball next year https://x.com/joeorrico99/status/1721279158544711722?s=46&t=1Z2_Xz2artz1_IpyD1F4_A
I’ll take my chances. He’s 24. Yamamoto is 25 and just threw almost 600 innings the last 3 years including 138 pitches in his last start. Who do you think the bigger injury risk is?
 

johnlos

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If he was a 5 win player each year of his contract he'd be a $495m player, not even factoring in inflation.
Exactly. That’s why he was #3 in the fangraphs trade value chart in July 2022.

Putting all kinds of weight into one year of defensive stats, which are at best significantly flawed
You can also just watch a few games or sportscenter before parroting the usual “defensive metrics are flawed” line. His range is incredible. And I’m sure the Sox (who were putting stopwatches to Yoshida’s outfield play in Japanese league games) would do plenty of research to confirm.
 

joe dokes

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yea that's fine but I doubt you'll find someone on this board that is lower on Verdugo than me, so being 15% better is lipstick on a pig. For $330m you better be absolutely positive he's a 5 win player going forward for the long haul. I am very skeptical of that.
Im sure its a bit of hyperbole, but "absolutely positive" is a threshold unlikely ever to be satisfied.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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Take it for what this is worth, which I understand isn't very much. But I know a guy who has some first hand knowledge of how this player behaves off the field and he wouldn't be interested in a long term deal on the books. I've been told he's as sweet as pie but immature by nature and he simply will not get off of his motorcycle. The anecdotes that I've heard jive with the publicly reported persona. He's a great player, even in a down offensive year, but that makes me nervous about a long term commitment here, despite being a perfect fit.
I thought he said he was done riding after the second accident. I really hope he is not dumb enough to keep riding with everything he has on the line.
 

JM3

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This isn't really a rumor per se...but free agents can start signing with other teams in less than 5 hours...even though this isn't like the NBA where we would expect a huge wave of immediate signings.
 

chrisfont9

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The other thing that Bloom didn't do was take some of the short term assets to generate more minor league depth. It appeared that his strategy was going to be short term deals and then decide at the deadline whether to be a buyer or seller. Basically acquire tradeable assets as free agents so that if that asset has value mid-season on a team that isn't going to make the playoffs the asset can be traded. He didn't do that anywhere near enough.
Yep. I was a Bloom guy but this was baffling. Not sure if he was hedging against pressure to win now, or if this is where the rumored “can’t pull the trigger” stuff happened. But if they weren’t all in, then they should have capitalized on the seller’s market, even if he didn’t get a total home run return.
 

jbupstate

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Yep. I was a Bloom guy but this was baffling. Not sure if he was hedging against pressure to win now, or if this is where the rumored “can’t pull the trigger” stuff happened. But if they weren’t all in, then they should have capitalized on the seller’s market, even if he didn’t get a total home run return.
I think it’s very likely he felt the pressure to win now and hoped of too much health at the deadlines.

But the real truth for me a a Bloom supporter (not defender) is that I was very nervous for Bloom being able to wheel and deal this off-season.

I’m so excited for free agency to start but still feel uneasy that Breslow is new and feels like a late hire. I’m all in… hoping like crazy to be stunned with good news.
 

santadevil

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But the real truth for me a a Bloom supporter (not defender) is that I was very nervous for Bloom being able to wheel and deal this off-season.

I’m so excited for free agency to start but still feel uneasy that Breslow is new and feels like a late hire. I’m all in… hoping like crazy to be stunned with good news.
I'm going to be cautiously optimistic about Breslow. It's not like he's been out of the game for the past number of years. He's been work and will know the players
I hope he's able to execute his own plan and move the Sox forward
 

brandonchristensen

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This isn't really a rumor per se...but free agents can start signing with other teams in less than 5 hours...even though this isn't like the NBA where we would expect a huge wave of immediate signings.
it would be nice if they had a FA window like the NFL. It sucks to drag it out all winter long.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Exactly. That’s why he was #3 in the fangraphs trade value chart in July 2022.


You can also just watch a few games or sportscenter before parroting the usual “defensive metrics are flawed” line. His range is incredible. And I’m sure the Sox (who were putting stopwatches to Yoshida’s outfield play in Japanese league games) would do plenty of research to confirm.
I watched probably 80% of the Padres games this year. His defense was as good as the metrics showed, in his first full year in the OF. I don't know how much the offense bounces back, whether it was PEDs or the wrist, but his defense was fantastic all year. His range to the gap and to the RF line was really impressive, he was surprisingly good at charging fly balls/line drives in front of him and his arm is elite. And his defense should only get better with more experience. The RF defense is elite.

With all that said, I don't see the Padres trading him. A trade of Soto and his $32M contract for next year makes much more sense if they're looking to cut payroll and allows the Padres to keep a Kim, Tatis, Machado, X top 4 in their lineup.
 

JM3

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I watched probably 80% of the Padres games this year. His defense was as good as the metrics showed, in his first full year in the OF. I don't know how much the offense bounces back, whether it was PEDs or the wrist, but his defense was fantastic all year. His range to the gap and to the RF line was really impressive, he was surprisingly good at charging fly balls/line drives in front of him and his arm is elite. And his defense should only get better with more experience. The RF defense is elite.

With all that said, I don't see the Padres trading him. A trade of Soto and his $32M contract for next year makes much more sense if they're looking to cut payroll and allows the Padres to keep a Kim, Tatis, Machado, X top 4 in their lineup.
Padres trading Soto to a team that's not the Red Sox for a whole ton of cost-controlled pitching, when they are letting Snell, Wacha, Lugo, & Martinez go, makes a ton of sense.
 

JM3

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Are predictions from the MassLive guys the same as rumors?

For most expensive Red Sox signing, 2 say Yamamoto, one says Nola.

Opening Day rotation predictions:

COTILLO: Aaron Nola, George Kirby, Brayan Bello, Chris Sale, Lucas Giolito.

MCADAM: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Brayan Bello, Chris Sale, Kutter Crawford.

SMITH: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, trade addition, Chris Sale, Lucas Giolito.
All 3 think Verdugo will be traded.

In terms of outside the box moves Cotillo thinks they'll trade Chris Martin, McAdam thinks they'll engage in talks on Marcelo Mayer, & Smith thinks they'll trade Kenley (that's my hope).

Of their own FAs, Cotillo thinks they bring back Duvall & Mondesi, McAdam thinks Duvall, & Smith thinks Turner.

All 3 think Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-bold-predictions-mariners-ace-acquired-alex-verdugo-traded-more.html?utm_campaign=masslivesports&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
 

brandonchristensen

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Never understand this position (not just from you), this way has fans refreshing Twitter all winter.
I have no vested interest in Twitter's metrics. It just forces moves into a window so you know what your team will be, and your hope isn't high goin into the next year only to find that your team has no actual plan.
 

manny

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Jul 24, 2005
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Are predictions from the MassLive guys the same as rumors?

For most expensive Red Sox signing, 2 say Yamamoto, one says Nola.

Opening Day rotation predictions:



All 3 think Verdugo will be traded.

In terms of outside the box moves Cotillo thinks they'll trade Chris Martin, McAdam thinks they'll engage in talks on Marcelo Mayer, & Smith thinks they'll trade Kenley (that's my hope).

Of their own FAs, Cotillo thinks they bring back Duvall & Mondesi, McAdam thinks Duvall, & Smith thinks Turner.

All 3 think Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-bold-predictions-mariners-ace-acquired-alex-verdugo-traded-more.html?utm_campaign=masslivesports&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
I know the expectation has been the Sox will be players this offseason, but three guys "in the know" predicting pretty sizeable spends just on the rotation is encouraging.
 

chawson

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Are predictions from the MassLive guys the same as rumors?

For most expensive Red Sox signing, 2 say Yamamoto, one says Nola.

Opening Day rotation predictions:



All 3 think Verdugo will be traded.

In terms of outside the box moves Cotillo thinks they'll trade Chris Martin, McAdam thinks they'll engage in talks on Marcelo Mayer, & Smith thinks they'll trade Kenley (that's my hope).

Of their own FAs, Cotillo thinks they bring back Duvall & Mondesi, McAdam thinks Duvall, & Smith thinks Turner.

All 3 think Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-bold-predictions-mariners-ace-acquired-alex-verdugo-traded-more.html?utm_campaign=masslivesports&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
George Kirby just put up the best BB% and K/BB% this century. Who does Cotillo think we're trading for him?
 

JM3

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George Kirby just put up the best BB% and K/BB% this century. Who does Cotillo think we're trading for him?
Mayer, Crawford, & Verdugo was his initial offer...

COTILLO: Acquiring George Kirby (or Logan Gilbert) in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners.

The Mariners flirted with trading away a young starter at the deadline and would be wise to at least explore the market again this winter. In Kirby, Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, the Mariners have plenty of super intriguing young arms. Jerry Dipoto loves to deal. Could a package of Marcelo Mayer, Kutter Crawford and a year of Alex Verdugo get a trade done?
 

jon abbey

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It just forces moves into a window so you know what your team will be, and your hope isn't high goin into the next year only to find that your team has no actual plan.
Baseball teams are making moves all year long, during the season, after the season, before the season. What you want forces all 30 teams into making almost instantaneous moves, it kills trades, kills changing evaluations (for instance PHI was not going after Bryce Harper until late in the winter), and would make it so that very little of consequence would happen for months, instead of keeping fans intrigued all year long. For instance, literally today is the deadline to put guys who are eligible to be minor league FAs onto the 40 man or risk them opting out and losing them for good.

Baseball has plenty of problems, this is not one of them.
 

TomRicardo

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I have no vested interest in Twitter's metrics. It just forces moves into a window so you know what your team will be, and your hope isn't high goin into the next year only to find that your team has no actual plan.
Considering baseball teams make far more money on local ticket sales than other sports, lengthening the amount of time you have hope helps the sport.
 

JM3

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Baseball teams are making moves all year long, during the season, after the season, before the season. What you want forces all 30 teams into making almost instantaneous moves, it kills trades, kills changing evaluations (for instance PHI was not going after Bryce Harper until late in the winter), and would make it so that very little of consequence would happen for months, instead of keeping fans intrigued all year long. For instance, literally today is the deadline to put guys who are eligible to be minor league FAs onto the 40 man or risk them opting out and losing them for good.

Baseball has plenty of problems, this is not one of them.
I was going to say that isn't right...but it is right...just not really that important of a deadline in reality is it? The MLFA timeline is 2 years after the normal Rule 5 timeline, so most people who are going to MLFA are not going to be strong 40-man candidates. The Red Sox strongest candidate for that is probably Ronaldo Hernandez, but I don't see that happening.

Here's our list of guys:

November 2023
Eddy Alvarez
Skylar Arias
Christian Arroyo - already an FA
Kyle Barraclough - already an FA
Yu Chang - already an FA
Narciso Crook
Tyler Dearden
Alison Del Orbe
Tyler Esplin
Justin Garza - already DFA'd
Franklin German
Michael Gettys
Rio Gomez
Caleb Hamilton
Ronaldo Hernandez
Dominic LoBrutto
Oddanier Mosqueda
Brendan Nail
Aaron Perry
Tyreque Reed
Sterling Sharp
Bradley Zimmer

https://www.soxprospects.com/mlfa.htm

The November 14th deadline to add guys is a fun one, though. & I'm sure some other teams are in a different situation regarding this deadline.
 

jon abbey

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I was going to say that isn't right...but it is right...just not really that important of a deadline in reality is it?
It's important to the guys it affects, the Twins added a couple guys to the 40 man today, NY added Carlos Narvaez (a 24 year old catcher, I think Omar's cousin?).
 

JM3

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It's important to the guys it affects, the Twins added a couple guys to the 40 man today, NY added Carlos Narvaez (a 24 year old catcher, I think Omar's cousin?).
I was more referring to the "driving traffic" argument of the extended off season. Don't think too many people are f5'ing on their Minor League free agents. I don't think it would be bad to contain the free agency period to a certain window & leave another window for trades & such. I think the Player's Association has pushed for that because it isn't really good when teams can string them along & they don't have the ability to get settled in their new locations in advance. But there are pros & cons to most things.
 

joe dokes

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Are predictions from the MassLive guys the same as rumors?

For most expensive Red Sox signing, 2 say Yamamoto, one says Nola.

Opening Day rotation predictions:



All 3 think Verdugo will be traded.

In terms of outside the box moves Cotillo thinks they'll trade Chris Martin, McAdam thinks they'll engage in talks on Marcelo Mayer, & Smith thinks they'll trade Kenley (that's my hope).

Of their own FAs, Cotillo thinks they bring back Duvall & Mondesi, McAdam thinks Duvall, & Smith thinks Turner.

All 3 think Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-bold-predictions-mariners-ace-acquired-alex-verdugo-traded-more.html?utm_campaign=masslivesports&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Im all for trading Kenley. I like him. Hes good. But teams still overpay for "closers." I do trust that Breslow can find one that isnt already one*

* still a subscriber to "closing is not a skill, its a job description."
 

BornToRun

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Im all for trading Kenley. I like him. Hes good. But teams still overpay for "closers." I do trust that Breslow can find one that isnt already one*

* still a subscriber to "closing is not a skill, its a job description."
Yeah, I’d be fine with it too. I like him, but he’s not irreplaceable and I’d have no compunctions about freeing up that money and maybe getting a ticket or two in return.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Translation: The Red Sox have spoken to Scott Boras...
Or more accurately, Scott Boras wants the league to know that the Red Sox talked to him.

Whether it's about Montgomery or any of his other clients, it's in his best interest to have one of the teams allegedly primed to spend money this winter attached to his top clients.
 

Trapaholic

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This is good, I hope this regime talks to every single free agent. Always good, in my opinion, to have multiple irons in the fire and have a Plan B through Z.

If, and this is a BIG if, the Sox do sign Montgomery, if would be great to see him shove vs. the yankees everytime he faces them.
 

JM3

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Hope they are. Positive development.
Absolutely. Was just pointing out it's a really weird way for Morosi to word that Tweet. RHF elaborated a bit more on the politics behind why it was worded that way.

Among other free agents this off season, Boras represents Montgomery, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, James Paxton, Nick Martinez, Sean Manaea, JD Martinez, Rhys Hoskins & Aroldis Chapman.
 

Hank Scorpio

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More FA predictions.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

They have Ohtani to the Dodgers for 12/$528, which I could see.

Cody Bellinger to the Yankees or Giants for 12/$264… which is insanity to me. I’d be really happy if the Yankees signed him to such an idiotic contract. Guy has been dogshit in three of the past four years.

Yamamoto to the Yankees for 9/$225, or an AAV of $25M. I’d top that in a heartbeat to get him in Boston.
 

simplicio

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I wonder when the last year was that any team didn't talk to Boras in the offseason.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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A 25-year-old pitcher who costs only money, not prospects? We have to go Dombrowski/Price-style and land him.
If those numbers are even close to what the deals end up being, it would be a shame not to land one of Yamamoto, Nola and Montgomery.

Even as someone that would ideally like to trade in some prospect capital in a Schilling / Beckett / Sale type trade (because I think it's unfair to put anyone in the Pedro category), I could certainly see the appeal of spending "just" $150M on Nola and $150m on Montgomery and holding on to all the prospects.

I think the Red Sox might have to blow away the highest bid on any of the top tier FAs since at this point it's not like "playing for a ring" is a draw like it may have been previously in Boston, and the team seems to have been sent through the wringer a bit recently - though I admittedly don't know if that is just here in Boston or if that is nationally.
 
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John Marzano Olympic Hero

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If he chooses his preferred place to live, and it isn't Boston, it may not matter. We do have good seafood though.
You could bowl him over with money, that's how you get him to choose Boston as his preferred place to live. You offer him enough cash and he'll be telling everyone how much he loves the Freedom Trail, the Pixies and Sam Adams.
 

YTF

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If those numbers are even close to what the deals end up being, it would be a shame not to land one of Yamamoto, Nola and Montgomery.

Even as someone that would ideally like to trade in some prospect capital in a Schilling / Beckett / Sale type trade (because I think it's unfair to put anyone in the Pedro category), I could certainly see the appeal of spending "just" $150M on Nola and $150m on Montgomery and holding on to all the prospects.

I think the Red Sox might have to blow away the highest bid on any of the top tier FAs since at this point it's not like "playing for a ring" is a draw like it may have been previously in Boston, and the team seems to have been sent through the wringer a bit recently - though I admittedly don't know if that is just here in Boston or if that is nationally.
Yeah some folks look at this as a year to spend $$$ and they wouldn't be wrong, but there comes a point when you have to do something with prospects and IMO a deal to fill one of the top two needs at starter would be a good use of some prospects. You're not going to be able to hang on to them all because there isn't going to be room for them all at the major league level nor will you be able to protect everyone on the 40 man roster. Part of the reason that having a strong farm system is to provide a team with talent that can be used to fill needs from outside the organization.
 
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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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But what I keep coming back to when I try and think of a feasible deal @YTF is that one of the issues with that approach is, of course, generally that type of deal requires some manner of high level pitching prospect going back to the other team, and we quite simply don't have that.

Obviously we're not getting Pedro - but that required Pavano whom was a very highly rated prospect at the time (I think he might have been the highest rated SP prospect in the game). Schilling of course didn't require that, but he clearly wasn't young or cost controlled. Beckett required Sanchez (#40 on BA before the 2006 season) and Sale needed Kopech in there (top 100 on BA and BP, MLB at 16 was obviously the outlier). Heck, even Drew Pomeranz required Espinoza (who was somewhere between top 50 and top 25, depending on if one wants to go with his pre 2016 or pre 2017 ranking as a 2016 deadline deal).

It's really why I think Boston has kind of painted themselves into a situation where the realistic choices are a) spending big on the FA market or b) having another season of craptastic starting pitching. They don't have a good rotation to start with. They haven't spent on "controllable" even mid rotation arms in the past 5 years and they have - at least relative to the rest of the prospect industry - nothing for pitching in the minors (sure there are guys who might be good, but for whatever its worth the prospect ranking complex doesn't think much of them).

They'd probably have to over-spend in terms of prospects to get a decent pitcher because they don't have pitching to give back - or find a team that is so awash in pitching but lacking in hitting as to find a deal. Which is why I keep going back to Seattle and Miami as teams I'd target. Because it's going to be tough to deal with anyone else because both the MLB pitching and (at least for a "top farm system") the minor league pitching is terrible.


Maybe the move isn't to search for a young cost controlled starter, but an established name under a large contract. A name I keep thinking about is Alcantara from the Marlins. He's coming off easily his worst season since he became a full time member of the rotation. He's still "cheap" but with the Marlins being the Marlins, it's a large salary for them, and his salary jumps from $6m last year to $9.3m this year, then $17m and $17m. BTV has his value as "only" around 15.3 right now (less than Kutter Crawford, for instance - which I think is laughable) but with all their pitching would they consider moving him for hitting. That's a call I'd hope Breslow is making.

Edit - yes I know he induces a lot of ground balls, yes I know the Red Sox IF defense is garbage. But the only two teams I can even realistically think of where they might trade pitching for hitting are the Mariners and the Marlins, nobody else really has that luxury. Possibly Cleveland.
 
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YTF

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But what I keep coming back to when I try and think of a feasible deal @YTF is that one of the issues with that approach is, of course, generally that type of deal requires some manner of high level pitching prospect going back to the other team, and we quite simply don't have that.

Obviously we're not getting Pedro - but that required Pavano whom was a very highly rated prospect at the time (I think he might have been the highest rated SP prospect in the game). Schilling of course didn't require that, but he clearly wasn't young or cost controlled. Beckett required Sanchez (#40 on BA before the 2006 season) and Sale needed Kopech in there (top 100 on BA and BP, MLB at 16 was obviously the outlier). Heck, even Drew Pomeranz required Espinoza (who was somewhere between top 50 and top 25, depending on if one wants to go with his pre 2016 or pre 2017 ranking as a 2016 deadline deal).

It's really why I think Boston has kind of painted themselves into a situation where the realistic choices are a) spending big on the FA market or b) having another season of craptastic starting pitching. They don't have a good rotation to start with. They haven't spent on "controllable" even mid rotation arms in the past 5 years and they have - at least relative to the rest of the prospect industry - nothing for pitching in the minors (sure there are guys who might be good, but for whatever its worth the prospect ranking complex doesn't think much of them).

They'd probably have to over-spend in terms of prospects to get a decent pitcher because they don't have pitching to give back - or find a team that is so awash in pitching but lacking in hitting as to find a deal. Which is why I keep going back to Seattle and Miami as teams I'd target. Because it's going to be tough to deal with anyone else because both the MLB pitching and (at least for a "top farm system") the minor league pitching is terrible.


Maybe the move isn't to search for a young cost controlled starter, but an established name under a large contract. A name I keep thinking about is Alcantara from the Marlins. He's coming off easily his worst season since he became a full time member of the rotation. He's still "cheap" but with the Marlins being the Marlins, it's a large salary for them, and his salary jumps from $6m last year to $9.3m this year, then $17m and $17m. BTV has his value as "only" around 15.3 right now (less than Kutter Crawford, for instance - which I think is laughable) but with all their pitching would they consider moving him for hitting. That's a call I'd hope Breslow is making.

Edit - yes I know he induces a lot of ground balls, yes I know the Red Sox IF defense is garbage. But the only two teams I can even realistically think of where they might trade pitching for hitting are the Mariners and the Marlins, nobody else really has that luxury. Possibly Cleveland.
Situations that you describe can be remedied by involving a third party. Easier said than done and requires the right partners, but if he is as advertised I'm guessing that Breslow is carrying a portfolio of players he's targeting from other teams and has familiarize himself with their excesses and needs.
 

simplicio

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5,625
But what I keep coming back to when I try and think of a feasible deal @YTF is that one of the issues with that approach is, of course, generally that type of deal requires some manner of high level pitching prospect going back to the other team, and we quite simply don't have that.

Obviously we're not getting Pedro - but that required Pavano whom was a very highly rated prospect at the time (I think he might have been the highest rated SP prospect in the game). Schilling of course didn't require that, but he clearly wasn't young or cost controlled. Beckett required Sanchez (#40 on BA before the 2006 season) and Sale needed Kopech in there (top 100 on BA and BP, MLB at 16 was obviously the outlier). Heck, even Drew Pomeranz required Espinoza (who was somewhere between top 50 and top 25, depending on if one wants to go with his pre 2016 or pre 2017 ranking as a 2016 deadline deal).

It's really why I think Boston has kind of painted themselves into a situation where the realistic choices are a) spending big on the FA market or b) having another season of craptastic starting pitching. They don't have a good rotation to start with. They haven't spent on "controllable" even mid rotation arms in the past 5 years and they have - at least relative to the rest of the prospect industry - nothing for pitching in the minors (sure there are guys who might be good, but for whatever its worth the prospect ranking complex doesn't think much of them).

They'd probably have to over-spend in terms of prospects to get a decent pitcher because they don't have pitching to give back - or find a team that is so awash in pitching but lacking in hitting as to find a deal. Which is why I keep going back to Seattle and Miami as teams I'd target. Because it's going to be tough to deal with anyone else because both the MLB pitching and (at least for a "top farm system") the minor league pitching is terrible.


Maybe the move isn't to search for a young cost controlled starter, but an established name under a large contract. A name I keep thinking about is Alcantara from the Marlins. He's coming off easily his worst season since he became a full time member of the rotation. He's still "cheap" but with the Marlins being the Marlins, it's a large salary for them, and his salary jumps from $6m last year to $9.3m this year, then $17m and $17m. BTV has his value as "only" around 15.3 right now (less than Kutter Crawford, for instance - which I think is laughable) but with all their pitching would they consider moving him for hitting. That's a call I'd hope Breslow is making.

Edit - yes I know he induces a lot of ground balls, yes I know the Red Sox IF defense is garbage. But the only two teams I can even realistically think of where they might trade pitching for hitting are the Mariners and the Marlins, nobody else really has that luxury. Possibly Cleveland.
Alcantara had TJS last month and will be back in 2025.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
7,056
Salem, NH
If those numbers are even close to what the deals end up being, it would be a shame not to land one of Yamamoto, Nola and Montgomery.

Even as someone that would ideally like to trade in some prospect capital in a Schilling / Beckett / Sale type trade (because I think it's unfair to put anyone in the Pedro category), I could certainly see the appeal of spending "just" $150M on Nola and $150m on Montgomery and holding on to all the prospects.

I think the Red Sox might have to blow away the highest bid on any of the top tier FAs since at this point it's not like "playing for a ring" is a draw like it may have been previously in Boston, and the team seems to have been sent through the wringer a bit recently - though I admittedly don't know if that is just here in Boston or if that is nationally.
Honestly, if (and it's a big if) we can get Yamamoto for 9/$225 and Montgomery for 6/$150 - I don't see why we shouldn't try to land both of them.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
a 12 year contract for a 30 year old breaks my brain.
Ohtani? I mean, there's a lot of (speculative sounding) stuff out there about how the club who signs him will make money hand over fist, selling stuff in Japan or licensing its logo in his ads or whatever. Obviously the team that does this has to take the good (sweet, sweet cash) with the bad (get out your CBT calculators) if they also want to win, which would be the point of signing him. But if these ancillary benefits keep piling up, then the tax won't really matter.
 
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