Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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With the Titans win, if the Bears win tomorrow we’re basically locked into a top 3 pick as we’ll be 2 wins behind every other team with 6 games to play. Odds are most of those teams should win at least one more game and we’re probably not going .500 the rest of the way.
Top 2 is really what matters in this draft. We are probably odds on favorite for 2 atm, but Jets game makes me nervous.
I still think it’s logical to build the lines then the Q then the weapons. See Philly.
Top 3 still gets you either a QB, MHJ, or a massive haul of picks for someone who really wants one of them. I’d like to end up top 2 at this point, but I still like where they are. At least given how bad the season has gone and the lack of overall hope and everything.
I would trade down if we get 2, maybe even one. I like Caleb and Jaylen but not that high. Maye I don’t like for top 10. Penix is a 2nd rounder imho.
give me Harrison (at 3+) and a top OL/DL
give me Harrison (at 3+) and a top OL/DL
This is my nightmare. I only pray Bill sticks around to surround Drake Maye with a bunch of mediocre skill position players.
If we're wish casting, Chicago winning and Justin Fields playing well would be great. That might make them consider trading the Panthers pick for something in the 3-4 range to grab MHJ. Pats could trade up.
Basically guaranteed we'd get one of the 6 guys I'd be happy with, maybe even with a trade down.
yeah in no order I'd be happy coming out of round 1 with any of: Williams, Maye, Alt, Fashanu, Harrison, Daniels. If it involved a CHI/CAR style robbery trade down (staying top 10, plus good picks and a sub 27 proven very good player at a premium position) I'd also be pretty happy with Nabers, Odunze or even Latham possibly, but I'd strongly prefer one of the top 6 I mentioned.
Carolina has been inexplicably awful, but 5 of their 6 remaining opponents have sub-500 records, including 2 games against the 4-win Bucs. As for Cards-Bears, somebody has to win when they face off on Christmas Eve.
Daniels should be the pick at QB IMO...but where is he gonna land? Mid-late first? Not buying his current rankings in mock draft simulators (54 or thereabouts).
Trade down from 2 or 3 or wherever we land but stay in the top 10 to get an LT, package the excess draft capital and our 2nd to trade back into the 1st to get Daniels.
Trade down from 2 or 3 or wherever we land but stay in the top 10 to get an LT, package the excess draft capital and our 2nd to trade back into the 1st to get Daniels.
Top 10 would be my guess. There are some potential negatives for sure, but my guess is he tests well, and his tape this year looks pretty good.
Anthony Richardson was getting mocked in the 2nd round this time last year... he went 4th.
If Arizona could win a few more games and fall down to 5-6-7 or so, a trade of our #1 for their own pick and #17 would look nice.
As hard as it would be to accept in the moment, I feel like the best hope for the Patriots is that some team goes all in for their pick like the Panthers did with the Bears. That would have been a great move for Chicago even if Bryce Young had been the right pick.
If they get the #1 pick somehow, and are able to trade down to #3 while adding another high pick, I think I'd strongly consider doing it, and then live with whoever is left from Williams/Maye/MHJ. But there's always the chance then that the guys picked above you become uber stars and you're always left wondering, why didn't I just take the #1 pick when I had the chance?
I prefer the Markelle Fultz model where we trade down, get the star, and the additional draft capital
But this is actually why Kraft needs to figure out soon who is leading the charge. There are so many directions a team with a top 3-4 pick and FA money to spend can go in.
It definitely seems like Daniels could have that kind of rise. The OT prospects and MHJ probably keep him out of the top 5, but top 10 is very possible. A lot of teams have shitty QB situations. I could also see Pennix rising if Washington somehow makes some noise in the playoff and he also shows some things at his workouts.
This is the list of top 10 QB prospects, according to cbssports. Where do we think they'll end up in the draft?
1. Williams, USC
2. Maye, UNC
3. Sanders, Colorado
4. McCarthy, Michigan
5. Penix, Washington
6. Nix, Oregon
7. Ewers, Texas
8. Daniels, LSU
9. Pratt, Tulane
10. Leonard, Duke
I think Williams and Maye are in the top 3, though I *could* envision a scenario where NE drafts third, and Williams and MHJ go 1-2, and then Belichick takes the OT from Penn State (Fashanu), wanting to build from the trenches out, hoping to add a QB later. That leaves Maye to drop further in the draft.
I would expect six of these guys to go in the first round.
And let me ask this other question as well. One of the things we are asking about Mac - and to be fair, his critics were asking AT THE TIME, not just now - is whether his college success was due to having an all-America offensive line, and two NFL studs at WR at his disposal, creating huge mismatches all over the field. I thought about that at the time and thought it was a legitimate question, but then I figured, well, he plays in the SEC - he's going up against elite, NFL-caliber *defensive* players all the time, too. Unlike Trey Lance at North Dakota State. So I thought that was all a wash. Looks like I was wrong about that - it mattered more than I thought it did.
But in light of that, how do we look at these guys based on the conference they're in, the competition they face, and the talent they have around them? How does that affect our view of them? And the NFL's view of them?
1. Williams, USC
2. Maye, UNC
3. Sanders, Colorado
4. McCarthy, Michigan
5. Penix, Washington
6. Nix, Oregon
7. Ewers, Texas
8. Daniels, LSU
9. Pratt, Tulane
10. Leonard, Duke
I think Williams and Maye are in the top 3, though I *could* envision a scenario where NE drafts third, and Williams and MHJ go 1-2, and then Belichick takes the OT from Penn State (Fashanu), wanting to build from the trenches out, hoping to add a QB later. That leaves Maye to drop further in the draft.
I would expect six of these guys to go in the first round.
And let me ask this other question as well. One of the things we are asking about Mac - and to be fair, his critics were asking AT THE TIME, not just now - is whether his college success was due to having an all-America offensive line, and two NFL studs at WR at his disposal, creating huge mismatches all over the field. I thought about that at the time and thought it was a legitimate question, but then I figured, well, he plays in the SEC - he's going up against elite, NFL-caliber *defensive* players all the time, too. Unlike Trey Lance at North Dakota State. So I thought that was all a wash. Looks like I was wrong about that - it mattered more than I thought it did.
But in light of that, how do we look at these guys based on the conference they're in, the competition they face, and the talent they have around them? How does that affect our view of them? And the NFL's view of them?
I like the idea of building the lines plus at least a skill player or two.
Picking the QB is like throwing a dart. To be successful, you have to hit the bullseye. But the bullseye for San Fran or Philly was way bigger, and had a much greater margin of error, than it would be for the Pats if they draft a QB this year.
Yes, but you don't often get a top 3 pick. At least not if you're the Patriots. So combine (1) their draft position, (2) their desperate need for a real franchise QB, and (3) the fact that there are some really good QB prospects in this draft, doesn't it scream "take a QB with your first pick"?
Philly had 4 wins in Hurts rookie year. The top three receivers the previous year were 2 TEs and a RB. They drafted Reager in the first the same year they grabbed Hurts. They drafted Smith in 2021 and traded for Brown in '22. They enlarged the bullseye AFTER drafting Hurts.
There will ALWAYS be top-tier WRs coming out especially the way college offenses work nowadays. And even though MHJ is the best WR prospect I've ever seen, it's entirely possible that someone else from this draft will end up with a better pro career than him. Like the two guys from LSU - Nabers and Thomas. Both are fantastic pro prospects. Nabers (86 rec, 1,546 yds, 18.0 avg, 14 td) is a junior and Thomas (60 rec, 1,079 yds, 18.0 avg, 15 td) is also a junior. They both could stay or they both could come out and enter the draft. The point is that there are always superlative WR prospects so if you pass on Harrison, you probably can find a great WR elsewhere. Though I've argued elsewhere that MHJ is as no-brainer a WR prospect as I've ever seen.
But there aren't always guys with Williams' skill set coming out of college. And to be fair, I've had some concerns about Williams - but mainly off-field stuff. He's not big (just 6'1", 185 lbs), but he's a great athlete and has a ridiculous arm, and he also has absurd passing stats, even in a year when he's "down" after having won the Heisman last year. His stats this year aren't actually down - it just feels that way because he's throwing less.
2022: 333-500 (66.6%), 4,537 yds, 9.1 y/a, 42 td, 5 int, 168.5 rating
2023: 266-388 (68.6%), 3,633 yds, 9.4 y/a, 30 td, 5 int, 170.1 rating
So he's still been ridiculously good this year. Just feels like a step back from last season. He's still an absurdly good QB talent.
But there aren't always guys with Williams' skill set coming out of college. And to be fair, I've had some concerns about Williams - but mainly off-field stuff. He's not big (just 6'1", 185 lbs), but he's a great athlete and has a ridiculous arm, and he also has absurd passing stats, even in a year when he's "down" after having won the Heisman last year. His stats this year aren't actually down - it just feels that way because he's throwing less.
2022: 333-500 (66.6%), 4,537 yds, 9.1 y/a, 42 td, 5 int, 168.5 rating
2023: 266-388 (68.6%), 3,633 yds, 9.4 y/a, 30 td, 5 int, 170.1 rating
So he's still been ridiculously good this year. Just feels like a step back from last season. He's still an absurdly good QB talent.
Some similarity to Andrew Luck here. Not quite as hyped, but there was a ton of pressure on Luck his final year. And super similar numbers to Williams:
2010: 263-372 (70.7%), 3,338 yds, 9.0 y/a, 32 td, 8 int, 170.2 rating
2011: 288-404 (71.3%), 3,517 yds, 8.7 y/a, 37 td, 10 int, 169.7 rating
Hurts wasnt the starter his rookie year, he didnt become the full time starter until his second season (2021). And they drafted Devonta Smith in the 2021 draft, and the one of the TEs they had was Dallas Goedert, who is one of the better TEs in the league.
And their 2021 offensive line was loaded with guys who have made All-Pro (not Pro Bowl) teams, plus Landon Dickerson as a rookie. Hurts didnt turn around some slapdick team. They dropped him into a fully built out offense.
And I dont mean that as a negative on Hurts, I think he is a very good QB. Some of his little movements in the pocket yesterday reminded me of Brady, and made me curse Mac even more. I see a world of difference between Hurts and Purdy as QBs, but I think their situations in terms of team building are very similar.
Edit: Four of these guys were there in 2021. That is certainly going to help a new QB with development and winning.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-best-unit-in-super-bowl-57-philadelphia-eagles-offensive-line
I didn't mean to imply Hurst turned them around and I know he didn't start much of his rookie year. My point was that this isn't the same offense. They didn't have nearly the weapons they have, recognized that and went out and got him weapons AFTER they drafted him. Hurst was one of the first pieces, they didn't wait to get all the pieces. Of course, he was also a second rounder. Good point about the line, they had a good line already even as they continued to add to it. Good line is especially important for a young QB.
The Panthers have fired Frank Reich. No word yet on an interim that I’ve seen, but this is probably the best case scenario for the pick. The Panthers have little incentive to tank, so hopefully the interim coach is going to chase some short-term results over long-term development.
And it is for this very reason why we do not want Kraft to fire Belichick now, Volin's bleatings notwithstanding.
Yep, but one draft can make a HUGE difference. Houston was 3-13-1, second worst scoring offense in the league, gets Stroud and Tank Dell in same draft, and some prognosticators still had them as one of the worst team in the league in preseason (one ESPN guy had them #32).
However, Houston is fun to watch, top 10 in league in scoring, and in the playoff hunt. One offseason.
Stroud has been great but don't sleep on Bobby Slowik coming over from SF to become the OC. He was the passing game coordinator there and has brought the same concepts which have helped a lot as well. This is a large part of the reason why I'm ready to move on from Bill. The offensive side of the ball has passed him by and his reluctance to bring in a modern day OC is going to keep this offense held back regardless of who is picking the groceries and how great they are. BOB is a semi-competent OC but we need someone visionary which Bill and Josh were until they weren't.
I'm not arguing the point - this is a genuine question. How can you be so good at scheming a defense against modern offenses, and yet have modern offense "pass you by"?
I wonder if the ability to scheme well against modern offenses--which BB has largely been very good at--diminishes the attractiveness and the urgency to switch to one of those self-same offenses.
This this this this this.
Better than 50-50 chance that whoever is the first round pick this year will outlast BB in the organization.
Honest question, does being a hardo maybe play better on the defensive side? Coupled with defense seeming to get the most attention high in the draft (or at least most success) and you end up here. I agree it’s weird though: Bill rarely pays up for premium positions in FA but his big swings at CB (going back multiple times) and lately with Judon were so strong. Would genuinely love to know what that coach’s brain saw in JJSS and Parker that made him think ‘gotta lock these guys up!’
I think it is at least 90-10 and the 10 is assuming BB is the one making the pick and if they are a bust everything else hits.
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I feel like I've seen somewhere (likely via a link in this forum) a place where they rate QBs across years as NFL prospects, so you can compare Williams/Maye/etc with Young/Stroud/Richardson and the 2021 top 5 and Joe Burrow and the rest.
As many have noted, there's probably a better than 50% chance that you pick top 2 and still end up with a mediocrity or a bust.
OTOH, it seems that top-5 WRs and OTs have a MUCH higher hit rate.
I'd think that the hit rate with WRs and OTs is higher, but QB is a more important position, so when you have a top-2 or top-3 shot at a potentially franchise-changing one, you kind of gotta take your shot, right?
Or... you draft the stud WR/OT and then find another solution at QB (like a Cousins or Garoppolo or whatever else you think works, or maybe someone later in the draft you like almost as much as the top guys).
How many off-seasons do we think it would take for the Patriots to assemble a San Fran/Philly style roster where you could conceivably drop in a league average QB and make the postseason every year?
Picking a QB is risky at any point in the draft but there's a very good chance they will never sniff another top-3 pick if they go in a different direction. I think unless you just hate Williams/Maye you take the chance.