Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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Oh right.... well, that's still a concern, could move on from Fields or recoup picks.
I believe in their ability to lose.
I’m just kidding, actually I’m very concerned they could pull out a game or two with their defense. A defensive score in a low scoring game could be enough to win.
I don’t really get how anyone could have watched 10 games from this team and have any thought that they could pull out a win. Yes, the defense is good but they’re hampered by injuries and none of the wounded are coming back. They’ve just released one of their starters and still run Myles Bryant out for significant snaps.
The offense is fresh off a game where they put up 6 points and benched their starter at the 2:00 warning for a possible game winning drive.
Despite that, he was taking 1st team reps at their practice this week.
They’re lucky if they win one of their teaming games.
The offense is fresh off a game where they put up 6 points and benched their starter at the 2:00 warning for a possible game winning drive.
Despite that, he was taking 1st team reps at their practice this week.
They’re lucky if they win one of their teaming games.
There are a lot of bad teams (and bad QBs) in the NFL, and lots of "business decisions" that happen late in the season. Pats could lose out or win a few. Devito and Boyle/Wilson aren't leading their teams to 20+ points and are more than capable of 4+ turnovers. (So are Mac or Zappe.)
Devito was 18/26 for 246 yards with 3 TDs and no picks. Sure, the DC defense stinks, but Mac didn't come close to that line against them a couple of weeks ago (24-44, 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Hope springs eternal.
They only had one practice because it was the bye week, and the media saw only 6 snaps, right? I fully expect to see a different starter next Sunday.
Huge week upcoming for Draft Pick Watch
Pats (2-8) @ NYG (3-8) - Someone has to win. If Pats lose they are in great position for a Top 3 pick
Panthers (1-9)@ Titans (3-7) - Someone has to win. Unclear which is better for the Pats... Obviously you want Panthers to win if you are going for top pick, but if you grant that the Panthers are absolutely terrible it might be better to get some breathing room from a Titans win
Rams@Cardinals (2-9) - Home game for Kyler. This feels winnable for the Cards, and Kyler is fighting to re-establish himself.
Bears (3-8)@Vikings (Mon nite) - Bears had the game sewn up vs Detroit and somehow managed to lose it (despite having 4 takeaways...hard to do). The only wildcard factor is Fields - he has been known to win games himself with his feet. I think this is the toughest one of the above to make happen though
Pats (2-8) @ NYG (3-8) - Someone has to win. If Pats lose they are in great position for a Top 3 pick
Panthers (1-9)@ Titans (3-7) - Someone has to win. Unclear which is better for the Pats... Obviously you want Panthers to win if you are going for top pick, but if you grant that the Panthers are absolutely terrible it might be better to get some breathing room from a Titans win
Rams@Cardinals (2-9) - Home game for Kyler. This feels winnable for the Cards, and Kyler is fighting to re-establish himself.
Bears (3-8)@Vikings (Mon nite) - Bears had the game sewn up vs Detroit and somehow managed to lose it (despite having 4 takeaways...hard to do). The only wildcard factor is Fields - he has been known to win games himself with his feet. I think this is the toughest one of the above to make happen though
Kyler Murray and Justin Fields balling out to finish the season would help the Patriots tremendously even if it doesn't manifest into wins for the Cardinals and Bears.
Or not, because those teams will trade out with other QB-hungry teams if they are picking 1 or 2. The Bears obviously played things well last year in that respect. Very difficult to project.
Last year the Patriots had 7 defensive TDs, this year they have 0. I don't think there is a lot of skill involved in that difference, I think they got lucky last year (part of the reason I was predicting 6-7 wins this year) and are unlucky so far this year.
This is a very bad team but the defense is solid enough to hold some of the bad offenses they are going to be facing (like NYG, Pittsburgh, and the Jets) to a low point total and then all they need is one play from either the defense or the offense, like they got a lot of last year.
Aren't the Patriots one of said QB hungry teams? Much easier to get a QB at 3 if the two teams drafting ahead of you believe they have a guy at the position regardless.
I think the worry being conveyed is the Pats are at 3 and if CHI/ARI decide to stick with Fields/Kyler, they could trade back and a QB needy team jumps ahead of NE.
It's not a bigger worry. It's the same worry. They won't be able to pick the guy they want if they are third in line.
I also think MHJ plus a second tier QB prospect could be a great outcome. Just don't subject MHJ to Mac.
Even if CHI and ARZ are convinced Fields/Murray are their guys, one of them is likely to go Harrison to give “their guy” a weapon which would push a QB down to 3.
I think they’d have to get a truly massive haul, bigger than Chicago’s last year, to pass on Harrison. Granted, they both made similar moves last year but passing on both QB and Harrison to trade down and end up with a Nabers or Verse caliber prospect seems crazy. Especially Chicago, who is likely to have another top 7 pick and should be able to get Nabers or Alt/Fashanu anyway.
I think they’d have to get a truly massive haul, bigger than Chicago’s last year, to pass on Harrison. Granted, they both made similar moves last year but passing on both QB and Harrison to trade down and end up with a Nabers or Verse caliber prospect seems crazy. Especially Chicago, who is likely to have another top 7 pick and should be able to get Nabers or Alt/Fashanu anyway.
I think the risk with MHJ and “second tier” QB plan is that they’d probably have to be aggressive at moving up to get that guy which will cost quite a bit of draft capital
waiting to see if a McCarthy or Nix drops to the 2nd seems too risky.
Just trade up, then. Why is everyone else who needs a QB allowed to trade up for one? And the bust rate on QBs outside the top 15 is just monumental. Just grab your guy at the top.
Yeah trading up in the 1st to get the top QB (or 2nd) on your board makes sense. Trading into the 1st again to get the 4th/5th on your board makes a lot less sense.
The Patriots aren't in any position to be picky about what position or side of the ball they take at the top of the draft this year. If it's a QB or an OL, great and offense would certainly be my priority. However, given how poor the state of the roster is they should be in BPA mode all draft long. They need help everywhere. If they take any one of Marvin Harrison, one of the 2 QBs, Joe Alt/Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers, or even an edge guy like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu it will be a much needed influx of talent at that particular position.
I’m gunning for a Panthers win. I just have a hard time seeing them win any of the games left on their schedule, which maybe a win doesn’t help (as the Pats would still be behind them due to SOS). I can see all the other teams winning a game or two the rest of the season.
OT would be the least likely position, I think, as that is just not an exciting position and the Pats need to generate some fan excitement. A WR on his own doesn’t change much, but I think an OT changes even less,
OT would be the least likely position, I think, as that is just not an exciting position and the Pats need to generate some fan excitement. A WR on his own doesn’t change much, but I think an OT changes even less,
And if the Pats trade up from #4 to #2, the additional cost won't be nearly as much as if they had to trade up from, say, #13 to #2. But I'm ok with MHJ at #3 and then a QB with their 2nd pick.
As much as they do need help everywhere, if they use their top pick (say a top 5 pick) on an edge rusher, I'd be really unhappy with that. They need way way more help on offense than they do on defense.
Yeah for anybody thinking of about MHJ and then QB I'd try this exercise... List your top 6 QBs in the order you prefer them. Would you be happy with #6? If not you're going to need a significant trade up into the 1st.
1. Williams
2. Maye
3. Penix
4. Daniels
5. McCarthy
6. Sanders (but I think he'll stay in school)
7. Nix
8. Ewers
So would I be ok with, say, MHJ and Nix as opposed to, say, Maye and Johnny Wilson (WR from FSU)?
What's the downside to Nix? Right now I'm seeing these numbers: 282-361 (78.1%), 3,539 yds, 9.8 y/a, 35 td, 2 int. None of these QB prospects is "can't miss", and reading the scouting reports on Nix, it SEEMS like he's as reasonable bet as any of these guys to make it at the next level. But I know a lot of people here are down on him.
His last 2 seasons: 74.8%, 64 td, 2 int, 9.3 y/a, and just 5 sacks taken. Those numbers are absolutely off the charts.
Pats will likely be picking at the top of the second round so the cost to trade back into the first to pick Daniels, Pennix, etc. may not be all that great. But your point holds. There will be some cost and QBs are almost always overdrafted, particularly in R1 to lock in the fifth year option. I personally would rather they go all in on a QB and the Oline at the draft. MHJ is an amazing talent but this team needs many more offensive pieces.
That's the key. If you feel like all these guys are similar prospects then it doesn't make sense to grab a QB early. Either pick someone else and look to trade back up or trade down picking up some extra pieces while still getting a QB you like. However if you have 1 or 2 of them on a different tier, you don't mess around if you can grab them.
Personally, I have very little idea at this point which way I'd prefer the Patriots go. Plus their draft position could change quite a bit before the end of the season.
Behind a paywall, but ESPN does a group draft and here's what they said about the Pats - who they had at #4. Keep in mind that they had Williams, Maye, and MHJ going 1-2-3.
4. New England Patriots (2-8)
Miller: The Patriots have the worst roster in the NFL, in my opinion. Every position is a position of need after years of poor drafting and poor roster management. And no matter who is running the show here in the spring, the Patriots must attack the class with a "best player available" mentality to bring up the overall talent on the team. All options should be on the table.
Yates: Quarterback is of course going to be right in the mix after two years of regression from Mac Jones after a promising 2021 rookie season. But we can only work with what we've seen so far, and to reiterate, there is no obvious QB3 candidate who merits a top-five selection at the moment besides Sanders, who doesn't feel likely to declare. Maybe that changes over the pre-draft process, but quarterback isn't the play right now at No. 4.
Miller: I like to think about how teams can stack picks. No, the Patriots shouldn't reach on a quarterback here. But what if they go best player available at No. 4 and then capitalize on the second tier of QBs with either a trade into late Round 1 or the team's early Round 2 selection? I'd rather have the best left tackle or pass-rusher in the class plus Oregon's Bo Nix than reach for a quarterback here and settle for what might be the No. 7 tackle in Round 2.
Reid: One thing we know about Bill Belichick is he loves 12 personnel and getting two tight ends on the field. So we need to at least talk about Georgia's Brock Bowers, a special tight end who adds an explosive dimension to the passing game. He can play next to a tackle, in the slot or lined up out wide. His after-the-catch ability is one of his best attributes, as 428 of his 661 receiving yards this season have come after the ball is in his possession.
The Pats have struggled to draft reliable offensive playmakers in the early rounds, and a strong argument could be made Rob Gronkowski is their most recent success (2010). But the positional value is also fair to question for New England, and as we've seen with Atlanta's Kyle Pitts, it takes a little longer for tight ends to become accustomed to the NFL.
Miller: Yeah, I love Bowers and have him ranked No. 4 overall. But I have someone ranked higher still out there, and he fills a bigger need for New England. The best remaining prospect on my board is Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu. The 20-year-old junior left tackle has outstanding tape. He's a devastating run blocker and has allowed one sack and 2.2% pressure on 323 pass blocks this season. The Patriots' offensive line has been a mess for a while, and Fashanu would immediately fix the left side.
Yates: Plenty has gone wrong this season for the Patriots, but it has been jarring to see how helpless some plays have looked simply because the defense swarms the quarterback the moment the ball is snapped. They must get younger and better at offensive tackle, period. And while the quarterback question must still be answered, Fashanu would be a huge step toward fixing the offensive line. He's dropping to No. 4 in this exercise, but in a different draft class, it's easy to imagine him being one of the top two picks.
Reid: I'm in agreement with you guys. Fashanu has franchise left tackle written all over him. His balance and awareness as a pass protector are easily the best in this class. He has also shown more physicality in the run game, and I thought his performance against Michigan was exceptional. With Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu scheduled to become free agents, there's a hole. Fashanu is a no-brainer.
Our pick for the Patriots: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
4. New England Patriots (2-8)
Miller: The Patriots have the worst roster in the NFL, in my opinion. Every position is a position of need after years of poor drafting and poor roster management. And no matter who is running the show here in the spring, the Patriots must attack the class with a "best player available" mentality to bring up the overall talent on the team. All options should be on the table.
Yates: Quarterback is of course going to be right in the mix after two years of regression from Mac Jones after a promising 2021 rookie season. But we can only work with what we've seen so far, and to reiterate, there is no obvious QB3 candidate who merits a top-five selection at the moment besides Sanders, who doesn't feel likely to declare. Maybe that changes over the pre-draft process, but quarterback isn't the play right now at No. 4.
Miller: I like to think about how teams can stack picks. No, the Patriots shouldn't reach on a quarterback here. But what if they go best player available at No. 4 and then capitalize on the second tier of QBs with either a trade into late Round 1 or the team's early Round 2 selection? I'd rather have the best left tackle or pass-rusher in the class plus Oregon's Bo Nix than reach for a quarterback here and settle for what might be the No. 7 tackle in Round 2.
Reid: One thing we know about Bill Belichick is he loves 12 personnel and getting two tight ends on the field. So we need to at least talk about Georgia's Brock Bowers, a special tight end who adds an explosive dimension to the passing game. He can play next to a tackle, in the slot or lined up out wide. His after-the-catch ability is one of his best attributes, as 428 of his 661 receiving yards this season have come after the ball is in his possession.
The Pats have struggled to draft reliable offensive playmakers in the early rounds, and a strong argument could be made Rob Gronkowski is their most recent success (2010). But the positional value is also fair to question for New England, and as we've seen with Atlanta's Kyle Pitts, it takes a little longer for tight ends to become accustomed to the NFL.
Miller: Yeah, I love Bowers and have him ranked No. 4 overall. But I have someone ranked higher still out there, and he fills a bigger need for New England. The best remaining prospect on my board is Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu. The 20-year-old junior left tackle has outstanding tape. He's a devastating run blocker and has allowed one sack and 2.2% pressure on 323 pass blocks this season. The Patriots' offensive line has been a mess for a while, and Fashanu would immediately fix the left side.
Yates: Plenty has gone wrong this season for the Patriots, but it has been jarring to see how helpless some plays have looked simply because the defense swarms the quarterback the moment the ball is snapped. They must get younger and better at offensive tackle, period. And while the quarterback question must still be answered, Fashanu would be a huge step toward fixing the offensive line. He's dropping to No. 4 in this exercise, but in a different draft class, it's easy to imagine him being one of the top two picks.
Reid: I'm in agreement with you guys. Fashanu has franchise left tackle written all over him. His balance and awareness as a pass protector are easily the best in this class. He has also shown more physicality in the run game, and I thought his performance against Michigan was exceptional. With Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu scheduled to become free agents, there's a hole. Fashanu is a no-brainer.
Our pick for the Patriots: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
My understanding on the Nix negatives are:
Some concern that his big jump after moving to Oregon is system based.
Uses sideline cues, some concerns over ability to process pre-snap.
Deep ball accuracy is not great
Footwork and pocket presence under pressure are concerns
decision making was a huge issue at Auburn, and still shows up at time in Oregon (where there is less pressure and a loaded team).
Also a lot of people talk about him as not really being able to read a defense or go through progressions. Basically a Justin Fields type issue.
Makes sense. But in terms of his decision making... He has thrown two (!!!!) interceptions in his 770 pass attempts over the last two years. That's......absurd, no matter who Oregon is playing. Whatever kind of mistakes he's making....he's not throwing many incompletions (he completes 3 of every 4 passes), and virtually no interceptions.
And it's not like he was bad at Auburn. 628-1,057 (59.4%), 7,251 yds, 6.9 y/a, 39 td, 9 int
Obviously nothing close to what he's become at Oregon, but some of that could just be...maturity and growth as a player too, right? I know his schedule is easier than it was at Auburn. But he's also older now.
I'm not trying to make the case FOR Nix. I just know that people here are down on him and then I started looking at his actual performance, and his numbers just POP.
I also read that more than 75% of his yards are YAC. I'm not sure how that stacks up with other QBs but it seems like his pass catchers are doing a lot of the work here.
Obviously I understand using Y/A instead of just yards, just thought that was interesting.
Obviously I understand using Y/A instead of just yards, just thought that was interesting.
The problem is these QBs could end up going in the middle of round 1. I don't think you can plan around drafting them, so if they fall great, if they don't the cost to trade up could actually be pretty significant from where the Pats pick in R2 or they could look at vets like Cousins or for a longer-term answer maybe Kyler Murray, who would cost draft picks, assuming the Cardinals want a fresh start (and I know Kyler is not the superstar everyone thought he would be given he was the number 1 pick and he plays Call of Duty, and he's short but perfect is the enemy of good...)
Breakdowns will start coming out closer to the draft. He's a 1st round type prospect so lot of good there. I'd say that Oregon has a lot of designed 1 read stuff where he's throwing to open WRs short and let them make things happen. Also, a thing that we discussed in the lead-up to drafting Mac... the number of NFL comp plays in a college season can be really low for these guys on loaded teams. They might only face real pressure a few times a year. Have a lot of wide open guys, huge WR mismatches, etc.
one note, he has 9 INT, 7 last year 2 this year.
Also, college stats tend to be insane, and picks are rare here is Nix against Mac, Zach Wilson and Fields...
| Alabama | SEC | JR | QB | 13 | 311 | 402 | 77.4 | 4500 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 41 | 4 | 203.1 |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | SR | QB | 11 | 282 | 361 | 78.1 | 3539 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 35 | 2 | 191.4 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | SO | QB | 14 | 238 | 354 | 67.2 | 3273 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 41 | 3 | 181.4 |
| Brigham Young | Ind | JR | QB | 12 | 247 | 336 | 73.5 | 3692 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 33 | 3 | 196.4 |
Bo Nix is 17 months younger than Mac Jones and has started more games at QB than any college player ever. I think he is a man playing amongst boys on a stacked team. I think much like Mac Jones his college stats won't translate well to NFL because he is already playing with the best WR corp he will in the NFL.
This is the knock I keep hearing on him, and certainly the evaluation will have to take it into account. But how much does this really weigh against him? Do his physical tools translate to the next level (unlike Mac)?
Yeah, totally possible. There must be reasons why he isn't like a top 10 prospect right now, despite the overwhelming numbers.
The rankings are all over the place right now. Many of these rankings are still primarily based on last season. They should be taken with a grain of salt in March. In November these rankings should be taken with a mountain of road salt similar in size to what Boston will have ready for this winter.
PFF big board, for one, has Nix as their 3rd QB, 17 overall. Their mock a couple weeks ago has the Rams taking Nix at 6. CBS on the other hand has Nix as the 6th QB, 50 overall. PFN similar to CBS. It's tough to tell how NFL personnel feel at the moment.
PFF big board, for one, has Nix as their 3rd QB, 17 overall. Their mock a couple weeks ago has the Rams taking Nix at 6. CBS on the other hand has Nix as the 6th QB, 50 overall. PFN similar to CBS. It's tough to tell how NFL personnel feel at the moment.
well Latu would certainly check the box of “major medical red flag” that Belichick has often overlooked in rounds 1 and 2.
using what is (hopefully) the only top 5 pick they have had/will have since Bledsoe on an edge rusher who had to medically retire (albeit briefly) would be a very Belichick and horrendously stupid move.
I get that Judon is getting old and you need to get to the QB but sinking more premium draft capital in the defense, on a guy who isn’t even a “mega elite” prospect in a franchise altering way who had a major neck injury would be so wasteful. Latu is a good prospect, as are Verse and Turner. But these guys - as prospects- are your run of the mill 1st round edge prospects with a few warts on them. They’re not franchise player type pass rushers you just can’t pass up like Garrett was or Clowney (not that he ended up as good as projected).
absent a QB or Harrison, I think Fashanu is the only guy who is a franchise cornerstone as a prospect. Obviously some elite players will be drafted outside the top 5 but you need to take a guy who has obvious franchise player talent and nobody on the defensive side of the ball is in that category this year.
Is this true for the first round? I thought they were fairly conservative in round 1. Rounds 2 on is where the Pats took chances. I remember Easley had some health concerns. Not remembering off hand anyone else. Who am I missing?
I think this is generally correct. Gronk is always the guy one can point to as 1st round talent that dropped to round 2 based on his back injuries in college. For round 1, Chandler Jones was considered a bit of a risk, and likely dropped somewhat due to his college injuries: https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2012cjones.php