McAdam: “Full Throttle” may mean business as usual
- Thread starter Big Papi's Mango Salsa
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The market has moved imo. Market inefficiencies that yielded some of those players are largely gone because most teams are following similar strategies. That doesn't mean they don't exist but bootstrapping to sustainable contention seems tougher these days
I don't even know what to say to this because everything you said is false. They signed a guy who gave up 41 homers last year across three teams and traded for a 2B who has questions on his glove and his bat. This is where the franchise is at, defend them all you want but they've turned the organization into a dumpster fire.
Don't forget Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, JD Drew, Josh Beckett, JDMartinez, Rick Porcello, David Price, Diasuke Matsuzaka , Johnny Damon, Keith Foulke and Chris Sale. And also home grown stars like Betts and Bogaerts and Lester.
These aren't top tier MLB players imo. They each had significant question marks before their acquisition which gave the Sox the opportunity to play.
This place has gotten so depressing.
From the Verdugo trade to O’Neill to Giolito to Grissom the Red Sox have been having a really nice offseason, getting better with every move, and there are still months to go and plenty else that may well be afoot…and every fucking thread on this board turns into howling at the moon about how the Sox suck and are cheap and have no plan.
Is it any wonder these reporters keep up with these tweets that don’t actually say anything but imply everything? The “engagement” is through the roof.
From the Verdugo trade to O’Neill to Giolito to Grissom the Red Sox have been having a really nice offseason, getting better with every move, and there are still months to go and plenty else that may well be afoot…and every fucking thread on this board turns into howling at the moon about how the Sox suck and are cheap and have no plan.
Is it any wonder these reporters keep up with these tweets that don’t actually say anything but imply everything? The “engagement” is through the roof.
Without actual numbers for a YY offer being leaked, this pursuit looks a lot more like their negotiations with X, where they are looking to come to deal that is structured around it being team friendly, otherwise they're going to be outbid.
As I posted in one of the other threads, it may be that YY was always going to go back to the Dodgers and give them a chance to match, but it also looks like he was motivated to get the biggest deal for a SP:
- The Mets had the biggest offer, topping Cole's total.
- The Yankees had a higher AAV, but not enough to top Cole's deal.
- (It seems) the Dodgers weren't offering a deal at these levels before YY's market got set, they could sit back and have to just match the offers
- I think it seems pretty clear, that after their meeting in L.A. they weren't seen as a serious contender by YY's camp, and didn't warrant a visit, even if it was only to drum up a larger offer to take back to the Dodgers.
Regardless, I think it's safe to say the Sox were just competitive enough to get some media hits, but not much else.
Story’s market was very depressed and the Sox got into it after it was clear the wasn’t getting what he thought he would at the start of the offseason.
The other two players mentioned are better examples
Not sure where you're coming from here but sure – I probably should have used less provocative language to make this point.
My argument is not that Giolito will contend for the Cy or that Sale is more or less disliked than Julio Lugo. I'm saying that the last 48 hours have brought interesting and constructive moves for the team, and all it took is one dubiously sourced article spun to suggest they're cheap, and a lot of people would rather pay attention to that.
I think it's worth separating out Breslow and BBOps from FSG's Ownership.
I think the offseason is going really well. It isn't possible to turn this team around into an immediate lock to win the division (or at least give that appearance), but they're taking some of the improvements left behind by Bloom and adjusting the roster to get younger, improve the starting pitching, and look like a team that can be in the thick of the wild card hunt by the deadline, rather than the outside looking in and hoping that players returning from injury will be the needed roster improvements. It will take some luck & heath (maybe the same thing), but I also think that is an ingredient that is both necessary and underrated in playoff team.
However I think we can reasonably look at FSG and see if they're taking the revenues that they get from the Sox and using them to keep the team competitive in a really tough division, and in a league where exploitable inefficiencies are extremely hard to come by. What happened to the celebration of getting under the threshold to reset the CBT tax in 2020? Did the team then spend to shoot over the threshold after that? We've been trying to reset the tax again the last two years, and have we really seen an increase in using the team's financial muscle to improve the roster? The Sox are still the 3rd most valuable franchise, worth about $4.5 Billion, so I think it's a worthwhile question to wonder about how they're sustaining that valuation.
Dude, GTFO with this. I didn''t use the word "toxic" to describe anything. I said this reporting is shoddy and full of spin and I explained why, and I lamented that posters like you would rather air out your unquenchable personal grievance than talk about the interesting and constructive things that are currently happening.
I think there's certainly room to disagree that the moves are all that impactful though? I don't think it's a huge stretch to argue that O'Neil, Giolito, and Grissom (minus Sale + Verdugo) may not actually result in a meaningful improvement next year (i.e. the playoffs). For example, if last year's version of Giolito is the new norm.
Mark Cuban had an interesting comment this week after the sale of part of his stake in the Mavericks:
Now obviously this applies to an NBA owner so its not apples to apples but perhaps just being a ten figure billionaire is no longer enough to compete.
Maybe its fine and Guggenheim, Cohen et al aren't being rational but when players like that are fine paying a price for anything, you can't simply call them dumb money.
I agree, there's absolutely room for that. But I don't understand how anyone thinks now is the time to make that argument, when ours and about 90-95 percent of the rosters in the league are still taking shape.
Is it all that much of a stretch to argue that it's still December in an off-season that has moved at a snail's pace and that we might have a better idea as to the impact of these moves once we have the opportunity to see who's going to be on the roster as the team heads into Spring training?
You're the first person to ever address me in this manner. I'm not quite sure how to respond.
Happy New Year and keep your Sox on Kiddo.
Dude, GTFO with this. There’s not just one way to message board. You’re not above or a better fan than anyone else here. Stop being a condescending fucking asshole all the time. Not every dissenting view has to be deemed some mouth breathing, EEI calling perspective and I’m truly sick of it.
Your entire post is well reasoned. I think big-picture the quoted portion is quite fair. But these lines of argument come up in every single thread. I don't think there's a single poster here who is unfamiliar with the storylines. Is it really advancing the conversation for every thread to turn into a prosecution of the deficiencies of FSG and the Mookie trade?
I am *not* giving ownership a pass here. I feel the compete-while-rebuilding hybrid approach was a failure because the rebuild wasn't as effective as it could have been and the competing wasn't as effective as it could have been. I think ownership mandated it, and that Bloom paid the price for it. (I recognize and respect that others feel differently, believing that Bloom was over his head and should have been fired regardless.) I am also increasingly skeptical of Sam Kennedy's stewardship of the club.
But Bloom is gone, the Sox have announced that they want to compete this season, and they have made a series of moves that all seem to add up to them being serious about it. Many posters have noted that the moves so far all but scream that at least one bigger one is still to come. So let's judge Breslow and FSG (and even Same Kennedy), and their commitment to winning, after the offseason is complete. I already know every single poster who thinks that they're cheap and don't have a plan and no longer care about winning, and I already know the reasons that each of these posters will give for feeling that way. I know these things because I read them in every single thread on the site.
Here is my pledge to the naysayers (not directing this at you in any way, OCD!): The Red Sox have announced that they are going to compete this year. They are making moves that add up to them going for it. If, after all of that, they get to opening day and don't have a significantly better team than they did last year--one that can legitimately compete for the playoffs--then I will join in with the pitchforks and torches. I'll be there! Similarly, I will be there if they are not a top three of four payroll team by the 2025 season. But for now, man, let's just recognize that something is clearly different this offseason than the past few. So let's keep the pitchforks and torches in the shed for another couple months and see how things go.
You quite literally did. Because I am not happy with the direction the team has taken I am not able to participate in the discussion. Got it.
I think this is PRECISELY the kind of thing that there's room to disagree/argue about. In fact, I love these kinds of arguments. I have no idea whether those players will be good. Argue the quality of the moves! We can all learn from that. But that's totally different than screaming that the Sox are cheap and have no plan.
EDIT: Toning it down in the spirit of new beginnings.
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I am.
Breslow is moving in a new direction with alacrity - his trades are directly addressing flaws in the team construction for 2024.
It's great to see.
It's pretty much a permanent feature of SOSH at this point.
I know the big bad media is out to get the Sox and Cotillo is an agent plant, but if true this really really sucks and confirms a lot of our frustrations.
https://x.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1741495373724610693?s=46&t=uVK8VoVnjxH0J6ZFRVJ_4Q
https://x.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1741495373724610693?s=46&t=uVK8VoVnjxH0J6ZFRVJ_4Q
Hard to make much of one tweet that has no additional context so I’ll wait and see how the rest of the offseason turns out. But, in isolation, the quote obviously doesn’t make one feel warm and fuzzy. There are still guys out there that can help and we need some of them.
Maybe Sam Kennedy gets a bonus of 10 percent of every dollar saved under the first threshold? Because how does does going $8 million under the cap benefit ownership? I mean, if you’re going cheap in order to stash profits, why spend to 96.5 percent of the cap and pay Devers? Like isn’t $8 million a rounding error of the annual payroll let alone total club revenues? Very strange.
If your goal is to stay under the CBT threshold for a given season, you need some room for deadline deals if you’re in the playoff hunt, no?
Even if true, that mandated budget from last winter could well have been a response from ownership to Bloom's reported failure to get trades done and get under the tax threshold in 2022 to reset. $8m gives you some wiggle room to make moves this summer but also cushions you from a repeat of that scenario.
I largely agree. I was trying to slyly make the point that they spent to 96.5 percent of the cap so it seems unlikely they were trying to hoard profits. I was too sly for my own good! I agree that that they probably left some money for deadline acquisitions, etc but after falling out of it they never got to make those acquisitions. But who knows? (I also like blaming things on Sam Kennedy)
Not for nothing, but as we get more and more data points (or corroboration), I think there is a pretty decent picture coming into focus here - or it could be my own wishcasting, and I don’t discount that possibility, but putting myself in a position of FSG ownership, it makes a ton of sense…
I’ve always been of the belief that FSG gives the FO a budget each year of (ish) $Luxury Tax Threshhold, and then pretty much gets out of the way (in that they don’t micro manage). Obviously FSG must be consulted on enormous deals as any ownership group would, but beyond that taking a stance of “baseball decisions come from the FO, but we hold them accountable.”
So the 2022 deadline comes around, and Bloom decides not to sell (and reset the tax) because he believes the team is good enough as constructed to make the playoffs. So not only does he not make the believed Sale deal, but he also chooses not to sell off any of the pending free agents - thus staying over the tax AND not focusing on the rebuild. He was ultimately very wrong, and that’s a big strike against him.
As such he is given a hard and fast deadline of $225m for 2023 to ensure a reset. He makes a choice in January to sign Kluber. Eovaldi comes back and asks for his deal and is told ”no” because Kluber has been agreed to in principal and the Duvall signing is in the works. Kluber implodes dramatically, and the pitching staff is a shambles closing in on the trade deadline. Again, rather than sell off, Bloom decides to (again) bank on guys returning from injury. That again fails AND no moves for the future are pulled off (I suppose excepting Urias, but deciding to retain Paxton, Turner and Duvall for a run ends up looking like another horrible miscalculation).
At which point the decision is made to fire him.
Breslow comes in and is told (like other candidates) that he’s going to have an (ish) $Luxury Tax Threshold budget each season, and he’s good with that. But he still has a lot of what are now Bloom’s problems on the books (specifically Story, an overpaid Yoshida, and Sale - whom now belongs to Bloom if he could have gotten out of the deal and said no thanks.)
So his “budget“ this year is (call it) $235m, and (like Theo did) he wants to leave some money for in season deals, so that is now $230m. And he starts winding down the Bloom moves he doesn’t like (Urias gone, Verdugo gone, Sale gone).
$230m is still a really good budget (but now is more in line with Houston, Tor, Atl and ChC in the 7-12 range) and not t all like LAD, NYY, NYM and the like, so agents say they’re not spending with the top of the market. Which is true, but does lack some context (Well, they’re not spending like LAD or NY - totally true; but they will spend like Atl, Hou and the like - which doesn’t exactly sound terrible).
I can absolutely understand “handcuffing” Bloom based on his decisions (or lack thereof) going into 2023. I would have.
I’m not seeing how this is out of the ordinary, at least in this era of avoiding penalties for third-year overages. Last year was a reset year after going over in 2022. Excepting the pandemic seasons of 2020-21, which were atypical, the Sox did the same thing in 2017, also a tax reset year.
2017 luxury tax threshold: $195 million
2017 Red Sox OD payroll: $178,818,052
My understanding has been that our FO has left some room for a midseason acquisition, if they’re in contention.
The Yankees did the same thing in 2021, with an OD payroll of $192 million or so and a CBT of $210 million.
That mostly tracks for me, but I'm not sold on budgets imposed on Bloom last year necessarily being the same for Breslow now, after the tax reset. We'll see what happens.
Yeah, I could (should) have been more clear on that.
In no way did I mean Breslow has a $225m budget. I think that he (and Theo, and Cherington, and DDski, and Bloom, and now Breslow) have a budget of ~ $Luxury Tax threshold. They get to spend it how they see fit. I think FSG will certainly allow going over it (they did in 2021), but they hold their FO accountable for the choices made.
So Breslow knows he has ~ $230m to spend right now (assuming he wants some room for July).
I also doubt they’ve told him “you cannot sign Snell and Hernandez”, but they’ve told him he has to find a way to do what he wants below said $LTT budget. Which, I really don’t think is cheap or unreasonable going into a season.
I didn't mean $225m specifically either, I meant ~ $luxury tax threshold. Maybe there is, maybe there isn't, but I don't think we have sufficient data to assume that in the post-Dombrowski era they're unwilling to go over again.
We simply haven't been at a point between 2018 and this year where the farm was producing major pieces regularly, so I'm pretty incredulous of any claims about a long-term organizational plan based on their behavior during that period.
We simply haven't been at a point between 2018 and this year where the farm was producing major pieces regularly, so I'm pretty incredulous of any claims about a long-term organizational plan based on their behavior during that period.
Why? That says that they went into the 2023 season with the idea of spending as much as possible while resetting the tax to set themselves up for the future. Considering they had been over the tax in 2022 and had no realistic way to be projected as a top team coming into the year in 2023 that's exactly what they should have been doing. If they overachieved they could pivot midseason and go into the tax, if not then they wouldn't have to scramble midseason to get under it. That doesn't tell us anything at all about what future spending will be, the tweet literally says that.
Giolito got CYA votes three consecutive years, I think that's his point and it's a simple enough fact.
"Dumpster fire" is something. I won't bother to rebut, you can feel how you want.
Because if they don't hit a certain spending total they can't win? This offseason needs to end.
"Significantly under". The Red Sox were 3.4% under the CBT. I don't think that is significantly under. As I have said before, in my professional life I object when assumptions are made without supporting evidence.
I’m starting to come around to the Sox being cheap and no quality management/player wanting to be here.
They should commit to winning and absolutely blow past the luxury limits by signing Snell, Montgomery, Stroman and why not, Bellinger. Maybe trade for Trout while we’re at it.
In 3-5 years who cares if we can’t resign or extend Casas, Bello, Mayer, Anthony or Teel. Maybe it won’t get to that point and we can staple them to the great free agent signings of 2023-24. Just think of how great it would be to have DeGrom right now.
They should commit to winning and absolutely blow past the luxury limits by signing Snell, Montgomery, Stroman and why not, Bellinger. Maybe trade for Trout while we’re at it.
In 3-5 years who cares if we can’t resign or extend Casas, Bello, Mayer, Anthony or Teel. Maybe it won’t get to that point and we can staple them to the great free agent signings of 2023-24. Just think of how great it would be to have DeGrom right now.
Lou Merloni is banging his head against the wall about this too.
View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1741533837966930375?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA
The team already had a lot of top end talent like Nomar, Pedro, Manny, Xander, Mookie etc to build around. Not even close to a realistic comparison to this current team.
But not all those guys were top-of-the-market acquisitions. Two of them were.
The discussion was in response to a poster saying that the Red Sox “ownership group doesn't compete for top end baseball talent. They shop for discounts.” I’m saying FSG FOs have always “shopped for discounts,” to great success, alongside homegrown regulars and stars, and a few players acquired at premium rates.
The composition today seems more or less consistent with then. One problem is that several of our players acquired at a premium have been hurt (Sale, Story), and a few young players we banked on contributing either got hurt (Houck, Whitlock) or did not contribute like we hoped (Dalbec, Downs, Verdugo to some extent). Another problem is that the bad system of the DD-era late 2010s did not produce anyone close to a Nomar, Xander or Mookie (and development was further stalled due to the pandemic).
None of the young guys you list were ever expected to be cornerstones of the team possibly besides Verdugo. The fact that a top 5 player in baseball was traded for 2 of them is a lot of the reason why the team is in this mess as well. Looking back, you could argue that the Mookie trade was the sign that the ownership group was out on long-term big money deals for players outside the organization.
It’s nice that they’ve done well on discounts. But, if you’re out on acquiring premium talent then the ceiling of a team will always be lower.
I don't think ownership always shopped for discounts but it feels like they have always erred on the side of conservatism in handing out contracts.
That said, the market for MLB talent seems to have shifted away from them in terms of both evaluation as well as what teams will pay for top production. If this is correct, it would explain why their approach isn't yielding as much fruit. The talent market is far more efficient so you can't outclever people there and their financial constraints are such that they cannot compete with the big market teams for the best players.
This doesn't mean they can't win - if everything breaks right for a season they could absolutely get hot and win it all. They just aren't likely to build a sustainable contender without paying up (and taking risks) for the best players.
Edit - deleted post as the discussion seems to be just about paying FA prices for top end talent, not overall having (or not having) it.
Even if he's constrained by Henry and Co in the same way Bloom was, Bloom did a poor job of 2023 Roster construction. The "take my ball and go home" approach pivoting from Eovaldi to Jansen was a mistake as was the string of sub replacement level 2B they trotted out there.
There are still several moves to be made, but if Bloom was still in charge, would any one of us be surprised with the current roster being unchanged on opening day? I've been pretty critical of this as being more of the same, but even I have to recognize that judging Breslow solely on half an offseason is dumb.