McAdam: “Full Throttle” may mean business as usual

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I don’t know if this constitutes a ”rumor” but McAdam had a really sobering piece on MassLive this morning. If McAdam isn’t main board worthy, forgive me. I’ve always found him reasonable and well sourced.

He - paraphrased - that Montgomery (or one has to assume Snell) don’t fit into the budgetary plans of the Red Sox.



When you couple that with the “serious interest” in Paxton, it really seems like even someone like Stroman, Imanaga or Giolito is a pipe dream.

Compound that with Breslow saying the team was hoping to trade for a pitcher and the only real pieces of value with which to acquire said pitchers are Bello, Casas, Anthony, Teel and Mayer, it’s looking pretty bleak pretty quickly.

I desperately wanted to believe things were going to be different with a new CoBO, but it seems like we’re destined for rotations of Bello, Crawford, Houck, and future versions of Pivetta and current (and future) one year deals to pieces like 35 year old Sale and 35 year old Paxton for at minimum the next 4 to 5 years since the minor league pitching system is so barren that Breslow effectively needs to build that from scratch.

Which - I’m not saying can’t work for the occasional regular season and playoff round - but means the era of winning titles is over until that mindset - for whatever reason, changes dramatically. On to hoping Breslow can build a pitching pipeline and the Sox can start contending for the World Series again some time in the 2028-2032 time frame.


Thanks McAdam, I thought the coal in the stocking was supposed to be tomorrow morning.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/some-things-i-think-i-think-on-facing-facts-about-the-red-sox-and-more.html
 

BeantownIdaho

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Seems like Mayer is the centerpiece to a deal to acquire a #1 guy.... so if he's part of the future, I"m not sure we are dealing for a #1 starter. If that be the case we are dealing or signing our #2 guy to be our #1 and waiting.
Edit: Seems odd we would be "all in" on Yam but not have the finances for Montgomery.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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If the Sox aren’t dealing Mayer (Anthony or Teel) and we assume not Bello or Casas, you can forget an established #1, #2 or even #3starter. The best you’re getting is someone else version of Houck for anything less than those. Think Edward Cabrera, Griffin Canning (young) or Miles Mikolas, Patrick Corbin (old) type pieces at best.
 

Sille Skrub

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McAdam is totally main board worthy and has always been a solid source.

And I hope for all of our sake, he’s completely wrong in this case.
 

YTF

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This isn’t a rumor, but with YY off the board, I wonder if Breslow’s Plan B is to go heavy on short-term guys to bridge to the Mayer-Roman-Teel era. It’d try some fans’ patience, but I think it’s defensible. I know that’s what Bloom was trying to do, by appearances at least, but maybe Craig and Bailey are better at it? Teoscar for three, Drury has a year left (or Tim Anderson on a pillow contract), Stroman for three, Giolito for one with an option… probably still facing long odds in the AL East, I might be talking myself out of this.
Most teams short term it to some extent and you need place holders at times. Regarding the pitching staff, you have to start building a rotation now. IMO you can't wait to build a staff AFTER those three arrive in Boston. assuming they arrive in Boston. Start building a staff now. FA, trade...one, the other or both. It's a make or break season for Houck and Whitlock if they are still here and Sale moves on after this season. You begin to build the staff now and then acquire pieces each season to replenish what you've turned over. Second base, an additional OF, RH corner IF? Sure, there seem to be short term holes
 

BaseballJones

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You hope that Bello reaches his ceiling as a homegrown true #1 stud. Which is certainly not a crazy thought. But that will take a few more years but hoping in 2024 that he takes a bug

You hope that Crawford, whose numbers last year actually compare pretty favorably with guys like Stroman and Montgomery, can give you a full season at #2/3 production.

You hope that Sale can give you 150 innings of 80% of CHRIS SALE.

Pivetta is what he is - a pretty decent back rotation guy.

And you hope that Fitts becomes an actual good MLB starter at some point. (Again this is more for down the road than 2024 but I’m sure it’s what they’re hoping happens)

A lot of things have to go right for this team, which is not how you want to build a club. But it’s not a terribly crazy thought that they could compete this coming year.

Still…. That’s a very downer report by McAdam. Ugh.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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If that McAdam piece turns out to be true, then my instincts about this ownership lately, will sadly be what I’ve come to truly believe. Winter Weekend is coming up around the corner and will be very interesting to say the least.

The firing of Chaim, the difficulty in getting a replacement because of the way they scapegoated Bloom, set off alarm bell’s from the onset of them finally settling on Breslow. These people talk to one another.

FSG not giving the money with an organization that prints money. Not the place you want to be. Sam Kennedy and FSG have been feeding the fanbase a bunch of crap and I just don’t trust them anymore.

I am assuming the worst because I think we’re looking at another long, tough season to watch. It’ll really piss me off something awful if they deal Teel, Anthony or Mayer for someone that isn’t a stud. Particularly, Teel.
 

RedOctober3829

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You hope that Bello reaches his ceiling as a homegrown true #1 stud. Which is certainly not a crazy thought. But that will take a few more years but hoping in 2024 that he takes a bug

You hope that Crawford, whose numbers last year actually compare pretty favorably with guys like Stroman and Montgomery, can give you a full season at #2/3 production.

You hope that Sale can give you 150 innings of 80% of CHRIS SALE.

Pivetta is what he is - a pretty decent back rotation guy.

And you hope that Fitts becomes an actual good MLB starter at some point. (Again this is more for down the road than 2024 but I’m sure it’s what they’re hoping happens)

A lot of things have to go right for this team, which is not how you want to build a club. But it’s not a terribly crazy thought that they could compete this coming year.

Still…. That’s a very downer report by McAdam. Ugh.
This is the Boston Red Sox. Their plan can never be throwing stuff at the wall and see what sticks. They went under the luxury tax last year to supposedly reset the clock and go spend again to improve the team(that should have been 2022 but Bloom screwed that up). If their plan is to get a bunch of mid starters and see what happens, I’m sorry but that’s a joke.
 

6-5 Sadler

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If this is true, they are unserious about winning and should sell the team.
Eh I think you need to balance McAdam’s statement with their documented pursuit of YY. It could very well be that Monty/Snell don’t warrant the financial commitment that they’re expected to get given their age/track record (and potentially our expectations for next year) so they’re pivoting to shorter-term/lower-cost options.

Do I agree with this approach? Not necessarily but I can see the logic in it. I would prefer if they went for Snell and Monty to stabilize the rotation but maybe they’re off the table (Snell seems to be set on the west coast and it’s possible Monty’s price has exploded with YY and seemingly Snell off the board).
 

BaseballJones

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This is the Boston Red Sox. Their plan can never be throwing stuff at the wall and see what sticks. They went under the luxury tax last year to supposedly reset the clock and go spend again to improve the team(that should have been 2022 but Bloom screwed that up). If their plan is to get a bunch of mid starters and see what happens, I’m sorry but that’s a joke.
I agree. We saw Mookie go because ownership convinced us that they needed to be under the luxury tax so that they could reset before spending again. Now I don’t want them to spend over the top money on not so good players but I do want them to invest considerable resources in the team. The Sox should be among the highest spenders on payroll in all of MLB. Not the tippity top but among those at or near the top.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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A lot of things have to go right for this team, which is not how you want to build a club. But it’s not a terribly crazy thought that they could compete this coming year.
I'll bite. It's a pretty fucking crazy thought that they could compete given what you outlined, which amounted to an eight year old's hope chest or vision board (not directed at you-- you're working off of McAdam's article of abject inactivity).

Unless the definition of competing is putting on the uniform and taking the field.

They're a last place organization going forward with a last place mentality and a last place vision, which is what they have been-- if what you posited based on the McAdam report is accurate.
 

Max Power

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To go with the above, I'm one of many here who would love to see us trade for Burnes and Adames. Shoring up both the rotation AND 2B would be huge for us and seems so obvious.
It does, except they're both in the last year of control. You don't want to mortgage too much of the future for a one year upgrade, which means not moving the very top prospects. A more desperate team would be able to beat that package.
 

simplicio

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McAdam's piece feels like an op-ed to me. His reporting here is a single industry source who thinks they won't go after Montgomery?
 

SouthernBoSox

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I’m going to wait until the off season is over before passing judgement.

Breslow has said ad nauseam they are going to add pitching. Cora said he wants 3 starting pitchers.

Let’s see.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Thanks @Sille Skrub, I’ve always liked him, but wasn’t sure.

If he is even remotely correct on this, I’ll reluctantly join the “they should sell” side of the aisle.

I don’t want it to be true. I want them to be the bold, creative, and serious about what it takes to win titles, like they were from 2002-2019. It was awesome, and so was the ownership group. Not because of what they said - who cares about that - but what they DID. They spent at / near the top. They made bold trades. They made short terms deals. They were balanced.

They have not made impactful trades, free agent market signings or anything on the starting pitching side in about half a decade. I have no idea why.

I hope McAdam is totally wrong and they go back to the prior 20 years before these past four or five. Because that is who they can be and who they were. Sadly, it seems like those days might be gone.


But I hope not…
 

jose melendez

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I don't mind not breaking the bank for overrated talent, and I don't feel like there are a lot of can't miss free agents left (though I'm way less aware than I used to be).

I am completely opposed, however, to never breaking the bank for anyone.
 

SouthernBoSox

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We will see. I just wonder what it means that’s he’s out of their budget. Is it because the years? Is it they want a more rounded roster which means they can’t give 25mm to Montgomery? I just wonder what “budget” really means. Does that mean they are out on Imanaga?

Who knows….

I’m trying to stay patient.

Breslow has demonstrated creativity in his early tenure. I sure hope he isn’t handcuffed.
 

sezwho

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McAdam is totally main board worthy and has always been a solid source.

And I hope for all of our sake, he’s completely wrong in this case.
I also have taken McAdam largely at face value for some time and haven’t felt burned.

For some here I wonder if this is actually a cold comfort that ownership won’t pendulum back to GFIN then bust again. For the last half decade (and counting) rebuild to mean anything implies not "giving in to that monster.” /Theo.

Recognizing the Sox aren’t a top 10% payer and like won’t ever be is tough, we just don’t have the ownership and economic underpinnings of the big 3.

It leaves a path to success but it’s just going to take discipline and more years. Sox are always looking up at those three, plus another rotating cast of the next 2-3 from the Sox-esque middle class that are GFIN in any year (Padres and Phillies for example) means you don’t have to shop dollar store, but maybe TJ Max good for you.

Buy and hold. Sigh.
 

BaseballJones

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It’s why developing a fantastic minor league system they continually pumps out good talent is going to be so important for them.
 

cantor44

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Well, this is partially conjecture on McAdam's part - the source is someone from outside the organization making a subjective comment. Though it certainly is the way the organization has been trending. The question is: is a pivot coming, after re-setting the tax, etc.? No one really knows. We don't know if this has been a temporary strategic phase, or organizational paradigmatic shift. It's possible it's the latter and if it is the question is WHY? It doesn't make a lotta sense. I mean - why do this? Greed?

Frustratingly, it will probably take another couple off seasons to know for sure, one way or the other. If they have permanently downgraded their payroll, then, yeah, I'd like them to sell too (to offer whiffs of EEI mouth breathing fan rage). But, the jury still out here.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I’m actually as concerned with the Sox spending for spending’s sake as I am that they are cheap.

They are facing the prospect of an opening day roster $120 million behind the Yankees and upwards of $100 million behind the team that got Mookie. Whatever McAdam says, they know this would lead to a level of criticism they may not be able to weather. We’ve been sold on a plan. They are not that dumb.

The problem is, you can only buy what is on sale. Each piece like the McAdam piece makes me concerned that it is going to exert pressure on them to do something — much like they responded on Devers. I was happy they signed Devers, but it is right at the limit of what he is worth.
 

Max Power

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Thanks @Sille Skrub, I’ve always liked him, but wasn’t sure.

If he is even remotely correct on this, I’ll reluctantly join the “they should sell” side of the aisle.

I don’t want it to be true. I want them to be the bold, creative, and serious about what it takes to win titles, like they were from 2002-2019. It was awesome, and so was the ownership group. Not because of what they said - who cares about that - but what they DID. They spent at / near the top. They made bold trades. They made short terms deals. They were balanced.

They have not made impactful trades, free agent market signings or anything on the starting pitching side in about half a decade. I have no idea why.
The most obvious answer why is that there aren't any dumb teams to take advantage of anymore (beside the Rockies, I guess). In a league where every team is working off the same data, free agent market inefficiencies and lopsided trades are much harder to find.
 

BeantownIdaho

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It seems that to acquire a #1 we would have to give up Mayer in a deal, which if he is the future and we are holding on to him, does not make it very likely we land a #1 in a trade. I am not sure we have the assets minus Mayer to get a real #1.
 

sezwho

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Well, this is partially conjecture on McAdam's part - the source is someone from outside the organization making a subjective comment. Though it certainly is the way the organization has been trending. The question is: is a pivot coming, after re-setting the tax, etc.? No one really knows. We don't know if this has been a temporary strategic phase, or organizational paradigmatic shift. It's possible it's the latter and if it is the question is WHY? It doesn't make a lotta sense. I mean - why do this? Greed?

Frustratingly, it will probably take another couple off seasons to know for sure, one way or the other. If they have permanently downgraded their payroll, then, yeah, I'd like them to sell too (to offer whiffs of EEI mouth breathing fan rage). But, the jury still out here.
First off, as much as I don’t bash McAdam you (and @simplicio ) are both correct this it more opinion than report…but that doesn’t make it wrong.

w/r/t the why, that seem easy. It’s because they are genuinely taking the long view and feel like they can’t afford to make a big bad investment, even if dumb dumb says ‘full throttle’ to the press.

edit - also what @Max Powers said.
 

BeantownIdaho

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I am assuming the worst because I think we’re looking at another long, tough season to watch. It’ll really piss me off something awful if they deal Teel, Anthony or Mayer for someone that isn’t a stud. Particularly, Teel.
Exactly... and that stud better come with an extension. If the article is true and we are not spending Montgomery type money, the only option is to replace Sale money with a #3 type like Imanaga and add a couple other pieces and hope the other pitches develop. Wildcard or Bust.
 

NickEsasky

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Yeah this is clearly an opinion piece by McAdam but it’s valid. The think we need to step back and realize that to Henry the Red Sox are now part of a portfolio. They are a piece of a hedge fund like how he originally made his money. The goal is to build profits and maintain a good bottom line. If they find a great POBO and that person builds a winner that also maintains the bottom line then great. But sadly I think the days of Red Sox spending juggernaut are over.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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I’m going to wait until the off season is over before passing judgement.

Breslow has said ad nauseam they are going to add pitching. Cora said he wants 3 starting pitchers.

Let’s see.
Unless Cora can name three guys and outline a way to acquire them in a way that coforms to ownership's operating plan, he's part of the problem.

Honestly, I'm not sure I can find three guys out there this offseason that are worth heavy investments in $ and talent.
 

mikcou

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I also have taken McAdam largely at face value for some time and haven’t felt burned.

For some here I wonder if this is actually a cold comfort that ownership won’t pendulum back to GFIN then bust again. For the last half decade (and counting) rebuild to mean anything implies not "giving in to that monster.” /Theo.

Recognizing the Sox aren’t a top 10% payer and like won’t ever be is tough, we just don’t have the ownership and economic underpinnings of the big 3.

It leaves a path to success but it’s just going to take discipline and more years. Sox are always looking up at those three, plus another rotating cast of the next 2-3 from the Sox-esque middle class that are GFIN in any year (Padres and Phillies for example) means you don’t have to shop dollar store, but maybe TJ Max good for you.

Buy and hold. Sigh.
The Red Sox are the #3 revenue team in MLB. If you want to say that the Mets are backstopped by Cohen and are willing to underwrite $100M losses annually then I guess I wont argue, but they are way closer to the top 3 than they are to the 5th revenue team (Sox - ~$525M v. Braves $425M). There is no reason to believe they can’t spend consistent with any team outside of the 2023 Cohen land based on what they bring in.

Spending up to the 2nd threshold is completely supportable simply by team revenue. Henry seems to have chosen that he wants to have the top free cash flow in the league so here we are.
 

Cellar-Door

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Eh I think you need to balance McAdam’s statement with their documented pursuit of YY. It could very well be that Monty/Snell don’t warrant the financial commitment that they’re expected to get given their age/track record (and potentially our expectations for next year) so they’re pivoting to shorter-term/lower-cost options.

Do I agree with this approach? Not necessarily but I can see the logic in it. I would prefer if they went for Snell and Monty to stabilize the rotation but maybe they’re off the table (Snell seems to be set on the west coast and it’s possible Monty’s price has exploded with YY and seemingly Snell off the board).
A documented pursuit, but also one where it sure seems like they weren't really in it. They didn't get a second meeting, and we haven't heard much about what their offer was other than it was under $300M, which puts them at best a distant 4th. Pursuing guys by making offers you know they won't accept is a classic sports team move to show your fans "We tried" when you don't have any real intention of spending, by saying "we missed on the top guys, so we didn't overpay for lesser guys"
 

koufax32

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As others have alluded to, who should they be spending money on? Do we really want Montgomery at 8/200? I don’t. Snell at…almost any FA price? I don’t. Trade for Burnes then immediately sign him to 7/210? Eh…that makes me nervous. I’m more bothered that Casas and Bello aren’t extended yet.

I agree with whoever above said that spending for spending sake is a worse scenario than not spending.
 

snowmanny

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Eh I think you need to balance McAdam’s statement with their documented pursuit of YY.
I am being honest here - what do we know about their pursuit of Yamamoto? Was the $300Million offer confirmed? We heard hints and winks from the team, but how realistic was their “pursuit?” Any chance of signing him, and maybe there was never a chance, would have required making the best offer.

Last year we heard right until the end how they were still in on Xander while in fact they were being outbid by something like a hundred million dollars. (Not that I would have wanted them to top that one).

edit- Cellar-Door made the same point just above.
 

Kliq

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Eh I think you need to balance McAdam’s statement with their documented pursuit of YY. It could very well be that Monty/Snell don’t warrant the financial commitment that they’re expected to get given their age/track record (and potentially our expectations for next year) so they’re pivoting to shorter-term/lower-cost options.

Do I agree with this approach? Not necessarily but I can see the logic in it. I would prefer if they went for Snell and Monty to stabilize the rotation but maybe they’re off the table (Snell seems to be set on the west coast and it’s possible Monty’s price has exploded with YY and seemingly Snell off the board).
This was my thought as well. Montgomery isn't out of their budget if they were in on Yamamoto. Maybe they don't see the value in him, which is at least understandable given how many teams are going to be in on him.
 

BigSoxFan

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As others have alluded to, who should they be spending money on? Do we really want Montgomery at 8/200? I don’t. Snell at…almost any FA price? I don’t. Trade for Burnes then immediately sign him to 7/210? Eh…that makes me nervous. I’m more bothered that Casas and Bello aren’t extended yet.

I agree with whoever above said that spending for spending sake is a worse scenario than not spending.
Why does Burnes at 7/210 make you nervous?
 

NickEsasky

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Who is this unicorn that people are willing to give a big deal to and if said unicorn exists why is another team giving up their unicorn?
 

SouthernBoSox

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Who is this unicorn that people are willing to give a big deal to and if said unicorn exists why is another team giving up their unicorn?
He doesn’t. That’s part of the problem when ownership throws out “Full Throttle” and handicaps their CBO.
 

moondog80

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If they would rather spend 75/3 on Stroman than 6/150 on Montgomery, does that count as not wanting to spend money?
 

sezwho

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The Red Sox are the #3 revenue team in MLB. If you want to say that the Mets are backstopped by Cohen and are willing to underwrite $100M losses annually then I guess I wont argue, but they are way closer to the top 3 than they are to the 5th revenue team (Sox - ~$525M v. Braves $425M). There is no reason to believe they can’t spend consistent with any team outside of the 2023 Cohen land based on what they bring in.

Spending up to the 2nd threshold is completely supportable simply by team revenue. Henry seems to have chosen that he wants to have the top free cash flow in the league so here we are.
Ok, I buy the premise that they are closer to top three than the fifth team by revenue, but the scarcity of elite free agents means that’s plenty far enough when you add in a couple GFINs. Now you are out of the top 5 basically every year for FAs (edit - unless you are the GFIN).

Was it @jon abbey that quoted Friedman up thread? "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent."
 

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Regardless of whether the article is accurate, you have the the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and probably at least Philadelphia all in positions to set the market for top tier free agents. The Red Sox clearly aren't involved in that space, except as a supplier of the talent - they are more of a Nordstrom's Rack type of shopper.

The owners of this team owe the fans nothing after all the joy they have provided however that's in the past. FSG now seems content to play the game where they develop talent and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Spending money on elite FA guarantees nothing so this approach makes some sense. They just won't be competing for the big impact players when they are available.
 

Salem's Lot

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Scott Boras is thinking the exact same thing.
Boras is probably the one telling McAdam all of this.

Everything is posturing this time of year. We’ll see what they actually go to Florida with in February and then we’ll really know the direction for 2024.
 

NickEsasky

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Regardless of whether the article is accurate, you have the the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and probably at least Philadelphia all in positions to set the market for top tier free agents. The Red Sox clearly aren't involved in that space, except as a supplier of the talent - they are more of a Nordstrom's Rack type of shopper.

The owners of this team owe the fans nothing after all the joy they have provided however that's in the past. FSG now seems content to play the game where they develop talent and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Spending money on elite FA guarantees nothing so this approach makes some sense. They just won't be competing for the big impact players when they are available.
They owe us nothing, you’re right. But fans don’t owe them eyeballs for NESN and money for the highest priced tickets and concessions in baseball if they don’t put a product on the field that can compete.
 

Harry Hooper

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This was my thought as well. Montgomery isn't out of their budget if they were in on Yamamoto. Maybe they don't see the value in him, which is at least understandable given how many teams are going to be in on him.
According to ownership back in the Matsuzaka pursuit, there was some kind of separate budget for signing big international free agents.


I cetainly miss the guy from 2003 who used to talk to the media:

John Henry spoke in the sunshine yesterday a change from last year when he kept a lower profile early during Red Sox spring training.

He officially became owner on Feb. 27 about two weeks into the 2002 camp. Now he's Boston's boss from the first day.

"Last year we wondered if we had enough money to close" the deal Henry said. "This year some people are speculating 'Do they have enough money to operate the team?'

"Hopefully by next year everybody will be celebrating a World Series."
AP
 

astrozombie

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Several people on this board swore up and down that Bloom built an amazing farm system that was set up to win now and the next several centuries. And that ownership was absolutely begging him on bended knees to spend all the money in the world to win; the only thing holding them back was blooms absolutely infallible track record of valuation and making sure that they could only spend money on surefire winners like Corey Kluber. When I said that FSG seemed to have other priorities, I was told definitively that they have 20 years of success and that means their priorities could not have possibly changed. Given what I was told, how could this report be true?
Oh well. Full throttle!
 

cantor44

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Chicago, IL
I agree with whoever above said that spending for spending sake is a worse scenario than not spending.
Well, this is it in a nutshell isn't it? The subtext of so many SoSH comments/debates/friction, especially in the Bloom and now just-post-Bloom era. Surely we can agree that spending happens on a continuum? It's not either you're prudent and wise, or you're drunken sailor stupid. There's a whole land inbetween. And the market keeps changing, with the Sox a step behind anticipating those changes. If they had Mookie now (ducks) at what it would have taken then, the fans and organization would be quite pleased.

As for the current moment - there are some good SP2s left, and it seems, given the dearth at the top of the rotation, they gotta get one 'em even at a bit of an overpay. There are times a team will have to overpay here and there, based on need, etc., that just seems like its the price of doing business. Adjustments can be made later on with bad back-end contracts (the Sox dumped a bunch a few times during the Henry era). The point is not to have the lowest W/$. It's just to have the most Ws.

Spend for spend's sake? No? But don't let perfect be the enemy of good, either.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,789
Several people on this board swore up and down that Bloom built an amazing farm system that was set up to win now and the next several centuries. And that ownership was absolutely begging him on bended knees to spend all the money in the world to win; the only thing holding them back was blooms absolutely infallible track record of valuation and making sure that they could only spend money on surefire winners like Corey Kluber. When I said that FSG seemed to have other priorities, I was told definitively that they have 20 years of success and that means their priorities could not have possibly changed. Given what I was told, how could this report be true?
Oh well. Full throttle!
I must have been reading some other board.