I want to look at this in a runs scored/runs allowed framework. From that Pythagorean perspective, the 2023 Sox were essentially a .500 team: 772 runs scored, 776 runs allowed. We’re already at 81 wins!
To get the rest of the way there, we’d need to improve our scoring and run prevention. It could be done many different ways, but for the sake of argument, let’s improve both sides by 45 runs. Offense up to 817 runs scored; runs allowed down to 731. That would be a 90-win team. Where might those improvements come from?
OFFENSE
1. Last year’s shortstops were atrocious offensively. Kiké, Chang, and a re-habbing Story put up 603 plate appearances of somewhere around an OPS+ of 56. Ouch. A basic runs created formula credits them for 45 runs created last year. For the coming season, Steamer projects Story for 600 PAs of .233/.303/.406, which would be good for 70 runs created. That’s a 25-run improvement already.
2. Marginal improvement from Devers. In 2023, Devers created 98 runs in 656 plate appearances. Steamer projects him to slash .285/.359/.532 in 672 PAs next year; that would be about 115 runs created. We’re 17 runs closer to our goal.
3. Marginal improvement from Yoshida. Last year, he created 79 runs in 580 plate appearances. Next year, Steamer expects him to be slightly better, creating 83 runs in 557 plate appearances.
That’s a 46 run improvement on offense, which is all we need. Obviously, we’re missing the 1,583 above average plate appearances put up by Verdugo, Turner, and Duvall. Could we replace them with some combination of O’Neill, Abreu, and some yet unsigned players? Perhaps. This is where it’s nice to see that the off-season isn’t over yet. We’d need to find a competent DH (or, if that’s Matsui, a left fielder) and at least one more outfielder. Is that sure thing? No, but it’s not impossible.
Now we need to do the same for our runs allowed. How might that happen?
PITCHING/DEFENSE
1. Improve the dreck at the bottom of the roster. We had 240 innings last year from Kluber, Bleier, Llovera, Jacques, Ort, Walter, Brasier, Robertson (I didn’t even know that Nick Robertson was a thing), Rodriguez, and Barraclough which averaged out to a 6.38 ERA. Replacing those innings at a 5.08 ERA (roughly a 90 ERA+), would save us 35 runs.
2. We still need 10 more defensive runs. Let’s make the fielders do that. I can see a full season of Story as 5 runs better than the Kiké shitshow. 5 more if we can bring a plus defender in centerfield.
I don’t expect things to happen exactly this way. There are myriad other possibilities. Bailey unlocks more of the potential of one or two of Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, or Pivetta. Sale pitches a few more innings. We improve the defense at second base. There are a lot of ways to achieve it.
It’s early in the off-season and we still have some missing pieces. But what this exercise shows me is that marginal improvements (no big-name, sexy signings) would go a long way to making the Red Sox a 90-win team next year. It’s not a sure thing, and it's not really enough to compete in the AL East, but it sure as hell isn’t hopeless.