2024 - Path to 90 Wins

The Napkin · Dec 22, 2023

well you start by winning 2 out of 3 home games....

chrisfont9 · Dec 22, 2023

The injury luck is big, because of the ripple effect. We have had two years of TERRIBLE injury luck, not just Sale breaking down but crazy shit. Everyone is judging the team's needs based on that injury luck continuing to be terrible, and maybe it will be, but the team has made it to the last two trade deadlines arguably in contention despite some of those injuries, only for the walls to finally cave in under the weight of them. There is some unrealized quality already there.

tims4wins · Dec 22, 2023

Can we get to 80 first?

wade boggs chicken dinner · Dec 22, 2023

Can they drop to AAA?

j-man · Dec 22, 2023

u have 88 mil to play with i dont understand why u guys are not in the trade marker u only have 2 long term deals at the very leart i dont why u guys is not takeing the KC route and signed guys to 1-2 year deals

sezwho · Dec 22, 2023

j-man said:
u have 88 mil to play with i dont understand why u guys are not in the trade marker u only have 2 long term deals at the very leart i dont why u guys is not takeing the KC route and signed guys to 1-2 year deals

I think that’s next, probably in that order
1) Try to get a remaining FA stud.
2) Trade for stud with term.
3) ..if 1 and 2 don’t close the gap, onto 1-2 year options

nvalvo · Dec 22, 2023

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Can they drop to AAA?

90 wins out of the 150 game AAA season is pretty impressive, both because it requires .600 baseball (never easy) and because the players driving that standout performance have a way of getting promoted. Usually only a team or two pulls it off each year.

kcbosox · Dec 22, 2023

Yoshida DH- who knows how many runs saved
2B- Drury
Duran in left
Abreu in Right (O’neill
Grab Taylor or Duval CF
This D will improve SPs era by half a run

absintheofmalaise · Dec 22, 2023

kcbosox said:
Yoshida DH- who knows how many runs saved
2B- Drury
Duran in left
Abreu in Right (O’neill
Grab Taylor or Duval CF
This D will improve SPs era by half a run

I know better defense will help the pitchers, but 1/2 a run on their ERA? I'd love to see how you came to that conclusion.

grepal · Dec 22, 2023

we need two starters, even if next year is not great we better hope Teel, Anthony and mayer are ready to perform in 2025 or the entire Bloom fiasco was not worth it. So we want two good starters including a stud on 5 year delas may be 6 if they are the right guys or Strohman for 3 years. That way we have pitching in place.

ehaz · Dec 22, 2023

Even if they add Montgomery (big if) and trade for someone like Drury to play 2B, I think the path to 90 wins is pretty narrow. Looking at the roster below:

Infield: You're extremely dependent on Story staying healthy both for infield defense at the most important position and overall lineup balance. That's scary. Oh and he probably has to hit too. Which sure, if he stays healthy for the first time in a Sox uniform, you hope that bat comes with it. But let's be real we haven't seen Story be an above average hitter for three seasons now.
Outfield: Need a lot of things to go right. Need a healthy season from O'Neill. Need Duran's 1st half of 2023 to not be a mirage. Need either Abreu to play a competent RF. CF is a major question mark defensively if Rafaela doesn't hit well enough to play or if Duran doesn't improve defensively.
Rotation: Serious question marks all over the place. You cannot survive a sophomore slump from Brayan Bello. Need innings from Sale. And you need either a career year from Pivetta or one of either Kutter/Whitlock/Houck to truly break out and claim a spot (and maybe both).
Bullpen: Good. If things go right for the rotation, potentially excellent because you can keep Houck/Whitlock where they probably belong. If Sale only makes 8 starts, or Bello/Montgomery get hurt, or Kutter can't make it a second time through the order, or Pivetta gives up ~30 HR again---the 'pen will be toast by August.

SP1 - Montgomery
SP2 - Sale
SP3 - Bello
SP4 - *Pivetta
SP5 - *Kutter

C - Wong / McGuire
1B - Casas
2B - Drury
3B - Devers
SS - Story
RF - Abreu
CF - Duran / Rafaela
LF - O'Neill
DH - Yoshida

CL - Jansen
RP - Martin
RP - Schreiber
RP - *Whitlock
RP - *Houck
RP - [various Breslow/Bailey projects]

*these guys are all interchangeable to me except Pivetta has shown he can throw ~170 innings.

Sille Skrub · Dec 22, 2023

tims4wins said:
Can we get to 80 first?

Seriously.

I’d take a third or fourth place finish or meaningful baseball after August at this point. At least it would be a step forward.

And this is nothing against the thread, new threads are always good!

Just frustration I guess…

GPO Man · Dec 22, 2023

I’d be happy with .500 at this point.

kcbosox · Dec 22, 2023

ehaz said:
Even if they add Montgomery (big if) and trade for someone like Drury to play 2B, I think the path to 90 wins is pretty narrow. Looking at the roster below:

Infield: You're extremely dependent on Story staying healthy both for infield defense at the most important position and overall lineup balance. That's scary. Oh and he probably has to hit too. Which sure, if he stays healthy for the first time in a Sox uniform, you hope that bat comes with it. But let's be real we haven't seen Story be an above average hitter for three seasons now.

Outfield: Need a lot of things to go right. Need a healthy season from O'Neill. Need Duran's 1st half of 2023 to not be a mirage. Need either Abreu to play a competent RF. CF is a major question mark defensively if Rafaela doesn't hit well enough to play or if Duran doesn't improve defensively.

Rotation: Serious question marks all over the place. You cannot survive a sophomore slump from Brayan Bello. Need innings from Sale. And you need either a career year from Pivetta or one of either Kutter/Whitlock/Houck to truly break out and claim a spot (and maybe both).

Bullpen: Good. If things go right for the rotation, potentially excellent because you can keep Houck/Whitlock where they probably belong. If Sale only makes 8 starts, or Bello/Montgomery get hurt, or Kutter can't make it a second time through the order, or Pivetta gives up ~30 HR again---the 'pen will be toast by August.

SP1 - Montgomery
SP2 - Sale
SP3 - Bello
SP4 - *Pivetta
SP5 - *Kutter

C - Wong / McGuire
1B - Casas
2B - Drury
3B - Devers
SS - Story
RF - Abreu
CF - Duran / Rafaela
LF - O'Neill
DH - Yoshida

CL - Jansen
RP - Martin
RP - Schreiber
RP - *Whitlock
RP - *Houck
RP - [various Breslow/Bailey projects]

*these guys are all interchangeable to me except Pivetta has shown he can throw ~170 innings.

kcbosox · Dec 22, 2023

Need additional #2-3 SP (Houck AND Pivetta doesn’t get it done)
Need CF (Unless Rafaela can hit, Duran much better in LF)
Other than that, we agree.

Salem's Lot · Dec 22, 2023

I just want a winning season with some growth of prospects and younger players. Evidence that Breslow is developing a good program.

kcbosox · Dec 22, 2023

absintheofmalaise said:
I know better defense will help the pitchers, but 1/2 a run on their ERA? I'd love to see how you came to that conclusion.

kcbosox · Dec 22, 2023

102 Errors! Bring it down to middle of pack, 80. 22 errors may (?) equate to 40 runs or .25 era/game. I overstated, but even that is enough to move the needle. Drury, a defensive CF, no Yoshida fielding, and year long Story it seems possible (or likely).

wade boggs chicken dinner · Dec 22, 2023

nvalvo said:
90 wins out of the 150 game AAA season is pretty impressive, both because it requires .600 baseball (never easy) and because the players driving that standout performance have a way of getting promoted. Usually only a team or two pulls it off each year.

Seems to me that if BOS were to play AAA teams, there wouldn't be any promotion since to whom would those players be promoted? The MFYs?

allmanbro · Dec 22, 2023

I've been thinking about where the improvements can come across the roster, not so much particular players. The bulk, obviously, is in the rotation and MI. So much of the production to replace in both spots was barely over replacement level that a lot can be made up there with good moves and some luck.

SP additions +4 wins: I don't think they even need all stars here, two solid "#2/3" type starters plus depth that Breslow has already added could still add this much.

MI improvements +4: A healthy, reasonably productive Story and some decent 2b addition could do this.

Full season of improved Casas +1

Assorted +3: some combination of innings from Sale, improved outfield D, Bello continued development, a possible breakout by Abreu or Rafaela, somebody else having a career year, some luck in one run games, etc.

This also assumes that 2nd year Yoshida plus another hitting addition make up for the loss of Turner, and nobody important takes a major step back.

Looking at it this way, 90 wins is definitely unlikely, but it's conceivable. It helps that the main areas to improve were so bad.

Traut · Dec 22, 2023

This is a last place team being run into the ground by a checked out owner.

The best chance this sorry excuse for a roster has at 90 wins is MLB expanding the season to 200 games.

EyeBob · Dec 22, 2023

90 wins would be helped a lot by better D. I think we would all agree.

why isn’t there more talk about playing Rafaela at SS, move Story back to 2B and find a stud CF? Trade for a right handed hitting OF that can play CF, move Duran to LF. Why play Rafaela in CF , story at SS and look for a 2B? Seems like the Sox would get better offensive production AND better defense by doing the former, not the latter.

BigSoxFan · Dec 22, 2023

EyeBob said:
90 wins would be helped a lot by better D. I think we would all agree.

why isn’t there more talk about playing Rafaela at SS, move Story back to 2B and find a stud CF? Trade for a right handed hitting OF that can play CF, move Duran to LF. Why play Rafaela in CF , story at SS and look for a 2B? Seems like the Sox would get better offensive production AND better defense by doing the former, not the latter.

What stud right-handed CF do you have in mind? There aren’t that many to speak of. Only guy I can really think of is Luis Robert but the White Sox would want a king’s ransom for him given he has 4 years of control remaining at very reasonable dollars. And White Sox GM doesn’t really appear to be entertaining the idea right now.

EyeBob · Dec 22, 2023

BigSoxFan said:
What stud right-handed CF do you have in mind? There aren’t that many to speak of. Only guy I can really think of is Luis Robert but the White Sox would want a king’s ransom for him given he has 4 years of control remaining at very reasonable dollars. And White Sox GM doesn’t really appear to be entertaining the idea right now.

Yeah, not sure. I am just assuming that, in total, the approach of adding an outfielder to the lineup would be more productive than adding a 2B, which seems to be the consensus on the way forward.

Amos Otis regrets · Dec 22, 2023

I want to look at this in a runs scored/runs allowed framework. From that Pythagorean perspective, the 2023 Sox were essentially a .500 team: 772 runs scored, 776 runs allowed. We’re already at 81 wins!

To get the rest of the way there, we’d need to improve our scoring and run prevention. It could be done many different ways, but for the sake of argument, let’s improve both sides by 45 runs. Offense up to 817 runs scored; runs allowed down to 731. That would be a 90-win team. Where might those improvements come from?

OFFENSE
1. Last year’s shortstops were atrocious offensively. Kiké, Chang, and a re-habbing Story put up 603 plate appearances of somewhere around an OPS+ of 56. Ouch. A basic runs created formula credits them for 45 runs created last year. For the coming season, Steamer projects Story for 600 PAs of .233/.303/.406, which would be good for 70 runs created. That’s a 25-run improvement already.

2. Marginal improvement from Devers. In 2023, Devers created 98 runs in 656 plate appearances. Steamer projects him to slash .285/.359/.532 in 672 PAs next year; that would be about 115 runs created. We’re 17 runs closer to our goal.

3. Marginal improvement from Yoshida. Last year, he created 79 runs in 580 plate appearances. Next year, Steamer expects him to be slightly better, creating 83 runs in 557 plate appearances.

That’s a 46 run improvement on offense, which is all we need. Obviously, we’re missing the 1,583 above average plate appearances put up by Verdugo, Turner, and Duvall. Could we replace them with some combination of O’Neill, Abreu, and some yet unsigned players? Perhaps. This is where it’s nice to see that the off-season isn’t over yet. We’d need to find a competent DH (or, if that’s Matsui, a left fielder) and at least one more outfielder. Is that sure thing? No, but it’s not impossible.

Now we need to do the same for our runs allowed. How might that happen?

PITCHING/DEFENSE
1. Improve the dreck at the bottom of the roster. We had 240 innings last year from Kluber, Bleier, Llovera, Jacques, Ort, Walter, Brasier, Robertson (I didn’t even know that Nick Robertson was a thing), Rodriguez, and Barraclough which averaged out to a 6.38 ERA. Replacing those innings at a 5.08 ERA (roughly a 90 ERA+), would save us 35 runs.

2. We still need 10 more defensive runs. Let’s make the fielders do that. I can see a full season of Story as 5 runs better than the Kiké shitshow. 5 more if we can bring a plus defender in centerfield.

I don’t expect things to happen exactly this way. There are myriad other possibilities. Bailey unlocks more of the potential of one or two of Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, or Pivetta. Sale pitches a few more innings. We improve the defense at second base. There are a lot of ways to achieve it.

It’s early in the off-season and we still have some missing pieces. But what this exercise shows me is that marginal improvements (no big-name, sexy signings) would go a long way to making the Red Sox a 90-win team next year. It’s not a sure thing, and it's not really enough to compete in the AL East, but it sure as hell isn’t hopeless.

Heating up in the bullpen · Dec 23, 2023

EyeBob said:
why isn’t there more talk about playing Rafaela at SS, move Story back to 2B and find a stud CF?

I think because Story is the best defensive SS on the roster and Rafaela is the best defensive CF on the roster. If they can find a decent 2B, why move two players to sub-optimal positions?

Rovin Romine · Dec 23, 2023

EyeBob said:
90 wins would be helped a lot by better D. I think we would all agree.

why isn’t there more talk about playing Rafaela at SS, move Story back to 2B and find a stud CF? Trade for a right handed hitting OF that can play CF, move Duran to LF. Why play Rafaela in CF , story at SS and look for a 2B? Seems like the Sox would get better offensive production AND better defense by doing the former, not the latter.

Maybe the Sox could trade for this guy and keep Duran in CF? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oneilty01.shtml

Seems like a long shot though.

Red(s)HawksFan · Dec 23, 2023

kcbosox said:
102 Errors! Bring it down to middle of pack, 80. 22 errors may (?) equate to 40 runs or .25 era/game. I overstated, but even that is enough to move the needle. Drury, a defensive CF, no Yoshida fielding, and year long Story it seems possible (or likely).

You either need to revise your terminology or refresh yourself on how ERA is calculated. Runs scored due to errors are unearned runs. While reducing errors will almost certainly lead to fewer runs allowed, it won't change one's Earned Run Average.

Mugsy's Jock · Dec 23, 2023

I appreciate the hunt for a silver lining (never my strong suit), but the Hoped-for improvements in the Red Sox next year are more than netted out by more likely improvements by other teams — specifically the MFY and the Orioles.

As I look at the OP’s wish list of 2024 improvements, the one I feel best about is the one he assigns the least value to: “Bullpen: no Bearclaw, No Tilt, No Ort”.

snowmanny · Dec 23, 2023

Mugsy's Jock said:
I appreciate the hunt for a silver lining (never my strong suit), but the Hoped-for improvements in the Red Sox next year are more than netted out by more likely improvements by other teams — specifically the MFY and the Orioles.

As I look at the OP’s wish list of 2024 improvements, the one I feel best about is the one he assigns the least value to: “Bullpen: no Bearclaw, No Tilt, No Ort”.

Yes. I get the idea of the "90 wins" goal, but the actual way I see it is they have to finish at worst third in the division to have a good shot at the playoffs. So they have to pass two of the four. Not seeing it yet.

jon abbey · Dec 23, 2023

snowmanny said:
Yes. I get the idea of the "90 wins" goal, but the actual way I see it is they have to finish at worst third in the division to have a good shot at the playoffs. So they have to pass two of the four. Not seeing it yet.

Three wild cards per league in the current silly system, so 4th place could potentially still get in.

Ale Xander · Dec 23, 2023

jon abbey said:
Three wild cards per league in the current silly system, so 4th place could potentially still get in.

I think snowmanny assumes both Houston and Texas will get into the playoffs
And on paper he is correct, both are much more talented than the Red Sox

mauf · Dec 23, 2023

Their run differential in 2023 was substantially flat, so you really only need a 9-win improvement in team quality to get to a median expectancy of 90 wins, which gives you at least a 50/50 chance of making the play-in, which I believe should be the goal. (Winning the AL East isn’t a reasonable goal in 2024.)

Fangraphs rated the defense 30 runs below average last season; getting that to average would be worth 3 wins by itself. Unfortunately, about half of last season’s negative performance was attributable to Triston Casas, who figures to play the same role in 2024, and they start in a hole relative to last season with the loss of Verdugo, who rated as easily their best defender in 2023. A full season of Story (and no one at SS as bad as KH was) will help a lot. So would signing a league-average CF, which would push Duran to LF and Yoshida to DH. I think a 2-win improvement is feasible without any big investments, particularly if Casas improves from atrocious to merely below-average.

I’m bullish on their ability to replicate last season’s offensive production with a couple modest moves. No returning regular is older than 30, so we have a better than average chance to avoid any major regression. The only departing bat who will be challenging to replace is Turner (though Duvall was also excellent when he played.) I think we’ll get a little improvement from Casas and a bit of a bounceback from Devers, so I think a couple upgrades around the margins will be enough to keep the offense about where it was. But I also don’t think it’s realistic to expect the offense to be materially better than it was — the Red Sox scored a lot of runs last season.

Which is all a long-winded way of saying there are good reasons why this year’s hot-stove discussion of the Red Sox has focused so heavily on pitching — it’s the weakest part of the team, and therefore where the greatest opportunities for improvement exist, and where they should be spending the bulk of their available resources.

phineas gage · Dec 23, 2023

mauf said:
where the greatest opportunities for improvement exist

Agreed, but as good pitching is scarce and in high demand, the cost to realize those opportunities will be exorbitant. Overpaying is certain. Obviously I would prefer they overpay in FA rather than the trade market.

mauf · Dec 23, 2023

phineas gage said:
Agreed, but as good pitching is scarce and in high demand, the cost to realize those opportunities will be exorbitant. Overpaying is certain. Obviously I would prefer they overpay in FA rather than the trade market.

I think you’re hitting on why a couple of the seasoned hands that ownership wanted to interview for the CBO job passed on the opportunity. This is an organization that needs to place bets on pitching; those bets don’t have a high success rate, and ownership has demonstrated its willingness to move on quickly from executives who place big bets that don’t work out.

That said, even bad long-term deals usually deliver some short-term benefit. Breslow doesn’t need to pull an inside straight to assemble a pitching staff that’s 7 wins or so better than last year’s.

Hank Scorpio · Dec 23, 2023

If the Sox aren’t able to make a trade for a long term, top of the rotation starter - signing Montgomery or Snell (ick) simply doesn’t seem worth it considering their age and what our next window to compete may be.

Likewise, trading prospects for a guy like Burnes feels like a waste, unless you’re able to sign him to an extension.

At this point, I think the best option might be to try to strike gold on a bunch of short term, 1-2 (maybe 3) year deals like we did in 2013. If it fails, trade guys for prospects.

Bring in guys like Hernandez, Merrifield, Giolito, Stroman. See what Sale has, give Kutter Crawford another year, stick with Pivetta, figure out what’s to be done with Houck and Whitlock.

I don’t think Montgomery and Snell are worth what they’re going to get at this point.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 23, 2023

Hank Scorpio said:
If the Sox aren’t able to make a trade for a long term, top of the rotation starter - signing Montgomery or Snell (ick) simply doesn’t seem worth it considering their age and what our next window to compete may be.

Likewise, trading prospects for a guy like Burnes feels like a waste, unless you’re able to sign him to an extension.

At this point, I think the best option might be to try to strike gold on a bunch of short term, 1-2 (maybe 3) year deals like we did in 2013. If it fails, trade guys for prospects.

Bring in guys like Hernandez, Merrifield, Giolito, Stroman. See what Sale has, give Kutter Crawford another year, stick with Pivetta, figure out what’s to be done with Houck and Whitlock.

I don’t think Montgomery and Snell are worth what they’re going to get at this point.

I‘m responding to you, yes, but genuinely not trying to single you out - because this is a refrain we hear a lot. Often added with “saving powder for next year’s class…”

I really don’t want to go look, but I bet we heard it last year in regards to guys like Eovaldi, Bassitt, Taillon and Senga. If we don’t add to the rotation, we’ll hear it again next off-season when we’re just waiting on Bleis, Cespedes, Perales and Monegro.

Meanwhile we waste the truly cheap years of Bello, Casas, Crawford, Abreu, Duran, etc.

If the team cant get Snell or Montgomery to sign here, fine. But at least go get two middle class contacts (ie Stroman, Imanaga, Giolito or trade).

Don‘t just kick the can down to the next FA class where we will get outbid by LAD, NYY, or NYM for Burnes.

grepal · Dec 23, 2023

Traut said:
This is a last place team being run into the ground by a checked out owner.

The best chance this sorry excuse for a roster has at 90 wins is MLB expanding the season to 200 games.

He is not wrong. Time for Henry to sell to someone who cares.

6-5 Sadler · Dec 27, 2023

jbupstate said:
The last great Red Sox team won because they drafted and the farm developed valuable players. They supplemented with buying and trading for players to get them over the top.

This is true but it’s also a lot more difficult to replicate with the current CBA. Three of those players (Betts, Bradley, and Barnes) were drafted in the last year before hard capping and received overslot bonuses. Who knows how they would’ve allocated their bonus dollars if there was a cap but it’s reasonable they wouldn’t have gotten all those players. The team also traded for Chris Sale using Yoan Moncada who they were able to sign by outbidding other teams. Today his bonus would be capped by the international bonus pool so less of a chance we would’ve won the bidding.

Edit: not trying to say that drafting and developing talent isn’t important…if anything it’s more important today. It’s just that the playing field has been leveled in terms of the draft/IFAs and arguably now tilted towards smaller market teams.

Edit 2: the Red Sox were also great at playing the lose a compensatory free agent, sign a compensatory free agent game which netted them additional draft picks. For instance in the Mookie draft, they lost a pick for signed Carl Crawford but gained 4 picks for letting Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre go. Those picks became Barnes, Swihart, Henry Owens, and JBJ.

8slim · Dec 28, 2023

No one who got meaningful time in 2023 falling off a cliff or getting catastrophically injured.

Bello taking another step forward. 300 innings from two other starters at a sub 4.15 ERA.

Story not being awful and 2 new additions to the everyday lineup that put up a 120+ OPS.

That *might* get us to 90.

Cassvt2023 · Dec 30, 2023

If you squint, I think you can see 90 Wins this way:

*Sign Imanaga to 4yr/85m contract w/ mutual 5th yr option based on performance
*Sign Teo Hernandez to 3/yr 56m w/ same type of 4th yr option as above

Duran CF
Story SS
Devers 3B
Casas 1B
Teoscar LF
Yoshida DH
O'neil RF
Wong C
Rafaela 2B

Mcguire C
Abreu OF
Valdez MI
Dalbec CI

Sale
Bello
Giolito
Pivetta
Crawford

Jansen
Martin
Bernardino
Schreiber
Houck
Whitlock
Winckowski
Campbell

simplicio · Dec 30, 2023

Giving Rafaela the opening day 2B job would be malpractice. There's far too great a possibility he never hits at all.

Also eww Dalbec.

Cassvt2023 · Dec 30, 2023

simplicio said:
Giving Rafaela the opening day 2B job would be malpractice. There's far too great a possibility he never hits at all.

Also eww Dalbec.

Yeah I don't love it either. Also, I totally failed to put Imanaga in the middle of the rotation, which would bump Pivetta or Crawford to bullpen until if/when Sale gets hurt. My bad. Maybe you package one of them or Houck with prospect(s) not named Teel, Mayer, Anthony Bleis for upgrade at 2B and make Ceddanne your super U guy?

pjheff · Dec 30, 2023

I thought if we gave Imanaga all that money, he’d at least be guaranteed a spot on the ML roster.

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