How to get back in this thing
- Thread starter BaseballJones
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Barnes really needs to be dropped. Call up Winckowski for good.
Mar least there’s no way that Whitlock could have saved the day
Mar least there’s no way that Whitlock could have saved the day
This is the type of main board analysis that makes SoSH so great
There is no way that the quest for a wild card is over.
If people want to say that the division is over you might have a point, but we have no idea whether things are over with the new playoff format and having three wildcards. The bullpen is not good and the starting pitching is not a strength. I am not sure Chaim can wait until July to deal with the pen, but I think it is clear that he is waiting on Sale and Paxton to come back. If they come back, that also helps the pen, but who knows if they will be back and effective this season.
Still a lot of time left, especially given there's an extra WC spot this year. Even a month from now, if they are still only four games out of the last WC spot, they'll still be in it and looking to be buyers rather than sellers depending on how many teams are between them and that last spot and how they're playing at that point.
This is a tough call. On one hand once they get Sale and Paxton back, they can move Hill (due to suckage) and Whitlock (due to innings limits) back to the pen. Hill might be even more effective in small burst. If Schrieber and Strahm continue to do well, then a bullpen with Strahm, Schreiber, Houck, Whitlock and possibly Hill could be lethal. A starting rotation of Evoldi, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Wacha could also be very good. The problem is there is little room for error. If a starter goes down and assuming the Sox are worried about Whitlock's innings, they can go with Houck in the rotation, but overall there is not much depth in case of something going wrong. So does Bloom roll the dice and try to go for it if the team is three to five games out of the wild card race? I am not entirely sure the Sox should roll those dice. They might be better off trying to fill the numerous holes this team will have come the off season.
OK so all agree we need Chris Sale back quickly…
View: https://twitter.com/ianmbrowne/status/1530288217827815425?s=21&t=VbErWFVTnMXMVCu1MTpwOw
Per Ian Browne, “Chris Sale threw close to 25 pitches in the bullpen today. The plan is for him to be off the mound three times next week. He could be on a Minors rehab assignment by the week of June 6.”
So, if he were to complete 3 starts in the minors, that adds maybe 15-20 days making his 2022 debut something like 22-25 June… Sox start a 10 game road trip on 24th against Guardians, Blue Jays and Cubs, then home against Rays and NYY starting 4th July.
I think they’d be hoping he could go in DC, skip Toronto, then again in Chicago. Will it be in time?
Edit: James Paxton news seems a bit scant lately. Saw something on 22 May about playing catch from 60 feet per Chris Cotillo.
Edit: None of this is "new news" - just adding some data to speculation on when the rotation might improve.
View: https://twitter.com/ianmbrowne/status/1530288217827815425?s=21&t=VbErWFVTnMXMVCu1MTpwOw
Per Ian Browne, “Chris Sale threw close to 25 pitches in the bullpen today. The plan is for him to be off the mound three times next week. He could be on a Minors rehab assignment by the week of June 6.”
So, if he were to complete 3 starts in the minors, that adds maybe 15-20 days making his 2022 debut something like 22-25 June… Sox start a 10 game road trip on 24th against Guardians, Blue Jays and Cubs, then home against Rays and NYY starting 4th July.
I think they’d be hoping he could go in DC, skip Toronto, then again in Chicago. Will it be in time?
Edit: James Paxton news seems a bit scant lately. Saw something on 22 May about playing catch from 60 feet per Chris Cotillo.
Edit: None of this is "new news" - just adding some data to speculation on when the rotation might improve.
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But . . but . .. that's ONE GAME PER MONTH they need to make up!!! They can't possibly do that, could they?
They'll still be in it, but they may stand pat. There is a major opportunity to stay under the luxury tax threshold this season and to gain financial flexibility after the season. Opportunistic trades that allow them to do both and improve the team for this season are possible, but I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to go all-in if they are on the outside looking in at the trade deadline. I think there is a better chance for the Red Sox to be sellers than buyers in a sellers' market.
I suspect both- they will need to clear some space on the 40-man in order to protect some. Ore important assets. I suspect we’ll see Barnes DFA’d soon, Dalbec dealt in a package with some significant mL prospects.
By that measure, TEX (who has a better record than we do) and LAA might also remain ahead of us, or even pull ahead by 4 more.
A gain of 4 from CLE, SEA, BAL, and OAK means they'll all finish ahead of Boston.
I agree with the overall point that it's still early, and they can still get lucky and get in. But by failing to move ahead against "weaker" teams they're in direct competition with, they're committing to make up that ground by decisively winning against harder teams, later in the schedule.
Winning 2 against CIN would help. But honestly, this team has a bit of a 2012 vibe right now. Lose early, claw back somewhat, but just can't quite seem to get over the hump.
Last year Sale pitched in 6 of 9 games against last place teams. The 7th game was against a bad Mets team and he pitched twice against the Rays, and got smoked once. He wasn't very good in the playoffs.
While he may provide a boost, I think at this point in his career he is a #3/4 starter (which still may be better than some of the SPs we have) but when people are getting excited about Sale coming back I hope they aren't expecting 2017 Sale. Out of Paxton/Sale returning there's a significant chance Sale is the lesser of the two
While he may provide a boost, I think at this point in his career he is a #3/4 starter (which still may be better than some of the SPs we have) but when people are getting excited about Sale coming back I hope they aren't expecting 2017 Sale. Out of Paxton/Sale returning there's a significant chance Sale is the lesser of the two
Pivetta, Whitlock and Eovaldi have been great. If Sale can be a good no.3 that’s bumping Hill. Small improvement but it’s something
They gained 2 games on the Angels while going 2-3 against the Orioles. So, a third of their lead in 4 days. Just sayin'
I can certainly understand the feeling that it's "over," but I can also understand the incredulity of those who point out that 4 games back in the Wild Card race with way over 100 games to go hardly warrants closing up shop on a season. Obviously, things can quickly turn a corner, and being a handful of games back is way short of desperate, so based on the sheer numbers, surrender seems woefully premature. But the "over" sentiment doesn't seem unwarranted for folks closely watching the pattern of losses. The Sox have been so "creative" in the many (inventive) ways they've lost thus far, and it's natural enough to get the feeling eventually that they just don't have "it," even if the "it" is vague and difficult to pin down (much less measure). Whether it's Sawamura airmailing a simple bunt throw to end a game, Barnes constantly turning into a pumpkin, blowing a 6-run lead to the O's by giving up 10 in the last three innings, or the offense being so quiet for so long (despite its recent resurgence), it's hard to look at the collection of such things and see the makings of a really good baseball team. But of course, few teams are ever as bad as they appear in their really bad times, just as they're seldom as good as they seem at their best. I don't think it's "over," but it's not easy to feel confident about this team's chances, even if despair is an overreaction. All in all, I won't be surprised if the Sox surprise me by turning a corner, particularly if the upcoming reinforcements prove useful, but neither will I be surprised if they continue to be a very frustrating club.
Is the goal to squeek into the playoffs and take out chances, if so, we need to improve the bullpen. Hard to make the playoffs when we lose so many very winnable games. In spite of the shutout yesterday the offense looks mostly fine. The question of improving relief pitching is a big one. I would think we should wait until July to see about trading away pieces. I hope we can build around Xander and Devers. JD is playing great but i do not see how we keep all three players. I wonder what we could get for him from a contender if we need to build for the future
There's probably something in here:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/everything-must-go-the-2022-red-sox-as-sellers.36395/unread
Sorry about that. It's possible I was a little frustrated after Barnes gave up the dinger.
Here's the thing. I know saves are a meaningless stat, but the good news is we aren't last in the league in that meaningless category; Seattle is. We have one more save than they do. However, it does speak to the larger issue of just how awful our pen is. There doesn't seem to be anybody in Worcester who can make it better (although dropping several guys from the 40-man and trying some of the AAAA guys could not possibly yield worse results.)
And then we have Sale and Paxton, and the hope they can push Whitlock (and maybe Hill) back to the pen. Tomorrow is June 1. Do any of you honestly believe we'll get more than a 3-inning 60 pitch performance from Sale before August? I certainly don't. Is Paxton even throwing off a mound yet? That's encouraging, huh?
I'm not calling for anything drastic (sell now!) because I don't think there's much use in it. Bottom line is if we can't get by the Orioles (and it seems we can't) and the Reds, there's no 3rd wild-card for us.
Sale threw a 25-pitch bullpen this weekend. Seems like barring another setback, he's on pace to return around the all star break, maybe just before. If that happened, I would expect his pitch limit to be higher than 60 by August (assuming at least 2-3 starts in July).
Yes, the amazing thing is - you divide their blown saves in half and they're in second place in the division. Of course, you can't do that, because the pen has mostly been a mess. But this maybe puts into focus the run differential/pythag gap. Maybe, just maybe, it is worth more than just fliers in the pen ....
That the bullpen is somewhere between crap and crapshoot is indisputable. But blown saves is close to a useless metric by which to measure it, given that teams can win games in which they have multiple blown saves, and get charged with a blown save in many un-savelike situations.
As for the "fliers," history suggests that fliers are no more or less likely to be good than all but a select few not-fliers.
I think the question is what inspires the Sox to take a shot at the postseason. Four games out doesn't seem so bad, but if the bullpen is a mess then how far does the FO think the Sox are going to get in the playoffs? If the FO thinks not far at all, then does it make sense to trade off pieces like JDM and Evoldi to help fill in the many holes the Sox team will have come the next off season?
Is it luck? I think there were a few things in play.
First off, they had the strike and short spring training. For whatever reason, that might have impacted them.
Second, they adopted a "Two Times Through" strategy early on. (Maybe in part because of the short spring training.) That resulted in a lot of single-inning relief appearances - either everyone's good on a given night, or the opposing team tees off for at least 3 batters - more with the slow hook if your bullpen is gassed.
Third, they committed to carrying a lot of feast or famine offense guys with a history of not particularly hot starts. Shaw, Arauz, Dalbec, Hernandez, etc. Until Story warmed up (again, short spring training) they had an auto out section from #6-#1. And not much was done about it but wait. In some cases like Hernandez, the waiting is likely justified. Shaw/Dalbec wasn't, when Dalbec had options.
That seems like baked-in failure, as opposed to a team getting robbed on calls or fluke hits or whatnot.
I think this is pretty much accurate ... which means that, somewhere, there's a clock wondering when it will be right for the second time today.
I also think this accounts for perception squabble going on in this thread and elsewhere. Are the Red Sox "out" of the playoff chase? Of course not. But is this team, with its holes and weaknesses, really worth the effort of making the postseason? I guess it would be an accomplishment, but it's such a critical offseason ahead that it might not be worth taking this opportunity to spin pieces off for the future
They're basically Schrodinger's Team ... they're dead and not dead at the same time
If almost half the teams in baseball make the post season (if only for a day or two for some), is it really that much of an accomplishment.
I suppose the chance to catch lightning in a bottle is worth something but if a ~.500 Red Sox team eeks into the playoffs only to be eliminated in a few games, I don't think I'll view this season as much of a success.
A team with good starters and a poor pen actually has an advantage in the playoffs if they can get there. They can use the fifth through eighth starters exclusively out of the pen and the other starters can give an inning or two on their throw days. If everything works out and the team squeaks into one of the wildcard spots, the rotation could be Eovaldi, Pivetta, Sale, and Paxton with Whitlock, Houck, Hill, and Wacha working out of the pen. That's a really good staff for a short series. The hard part is not blowing too many games with the terrible regular pen before then.
Yeah, I'm with you on that. I mean, I've read how they need to hold it together until Sale and (maybe) Paxton are in the rotation. But there's no guarantee that either will be that much help or even stay healthy after they return.
I just think it's a year to cut bait. Last year's team seemed like the lightning in a bottle team.
If I'm proven wrong, I'll gladly admit it
These are plausible explanations, but do they hold up to empirical rigor?
I mean, why is Toronto sitting 7 games over .500 while being outscored on the season? To me, that is just random good fortune for them. Their bullpen hasn't been much different than the Red Sox (3.96 ERA to BOS 4.04 ERA....similar FIP too). They've had some lousy bad streaky hitting by their hitters as well...yet, it didn't affect them in an overtly negative way.
I'm not saying Boston is playing great, but they are playing better than their record would indicate, and I'm hoping that the wins start coming more frequently as long as they are going to be outscoring their opponents in the mean.
I guess the counter to this is what do you do instead? What options are available in late April/early May to remedy slow starts by half the lineup? Trades? Scrap-heap free agents? Throwing minor leaguers into the fire? Phantom IL stints? Even with the extra roster spaces at the start of the year, they're still limited to who they can fit at any one time. Seems like the only one that they have maybe given too much rope to so far is Dalbec, but much like last year, he's been getting playing time because there aren't a ton of in-house alternatives (if he's sent down, who is the RHH 1B option? Arroyo?). Though to Bloom's credit, he jettisoned Shaw quickly (20 games into the season) and brought up Cordero who is playing well while taking the majority of the 1B starts since he came up (15 of 29 games).
Also, how does one discern a "history of not particularly hot starts" as a pattern and not simply a fluke thing in order to acquire players that won't start slow? Kike, for example, has career OPS by month of .748/.637/.751/.798/.785/.710 (.737 overall). That doesn't look like a guy who's traditionally a slow starter, nor a feast or famine guy (outside that May number maybe). He just happened to have a shitty first month this season.
Clearly, patience isn't something fans have in abundance, but it's hard to argue that impatience and more frequent tinkering with the roster is the better path for a manager/GM.
Does "just luck" hold up any better? It's also a plausible explanation. But it's not some kind of proven baseline we should default to.
Is it a counter? I mean, what do you think you're countering?
To get the caveats out of the way, I'd agree that some of those risks seemed reasonable to me. Granted, I have access to 2 or 3% of the analytics the front office has. I'd also agree that when some options came up as duds, patience should be shown. On others, they acted appropriately, like (IMO) cutting Shaw/promoting Cordero. And thirdly, I'll just say I don't fall into the fantasies of thinking everything is foreseeable and/or a team should have limitless redundancy, like a couple extra #1 starters if their # 1 starter goes down.
That said, nobody held a gun to Bloom's head and made him trade for JBJ. There was no random wheel spun by Vanna White that came up on, "Arauz, Shaw, Dalbec, Crawford." Those were choices. To the extent they did (or didn't) work out well, and then were (or weren't) amenable to "tinkering" - that's also on the pros who put the "untinkerable" roster together.
And it may turn out fine in the end - but I'm sure they didn't plan to be where they are now. Which means something failed.
We know baseball is full of random variance (whether it’s batting average of balls in play, hit sequencing, etc). There’s plenty of quantitative literature on the subject.
If we can agree on that, then the next step is to ask “can we prove that a team that has a +17 run differential is 3 games below .500 is due to some unique ‘skill’ or is it due to the random variance we have agreed already exists in the game?”
Barring an empirically sound explanation of an alternative source of underperforming their Pythag, I would default to mostly random variance.
The Pythagorean thing is cool I guess, but run differential really only matters in each individual game. All it means is that the average margin of sox victory is larger than the average margin of sox defeat. What to make of that, who knows .
Posterity Update, tomorrow is the final day for the arbitrary 10 game stretch. Sox fighting for .500:
Not to mention it isn't that unusual for a team's run differential to be heavily skewed by several months/halves and for them to have a totally different look than earlier in the season. A few examples:
2012 A's:
1st half: 43-43, 319 runs scored, 316 runs allowed
2nd half: 51-25, 394 runs scored, 298 runs allowed
2021 Braves:
1st half: 44-45, 420 runs scored, 401 runs allowed
2nd half: 44-28, 370 runs scored, 255 runs allowed
2021 Padres:
1st half: 53-40, 428 runs scored, 353 runs allowed
2nd half: 26-43, 301 runs scored, 355 runs allowed
2001 Red Sox:
1st half: 51-36, 439 runs scored, 352 runs allowed
2nd half: 31-43, 333 runs scored, 393 runs allowed
2001 Mets:
1st half: 38-51, 340 runs scored, 432 runs allowed
2nd half: 44-29, 302 runs scored, 281 runs allowed
This point may have been made already in this thread, and it's relatively substance free given it's a comparison to an entirely different sport, but it does feel a little odd to be racing to kick dirt on the grave of the 2022 Red Sox when many of us literally 48 hours ago watched the 21-22 Boston Celtics make an NBA Finals after beginning their season looking apathetic and irrelevant after bumbling to a 23-24 start.
Yes, they just lost a home series to the Orioles. Yes, they just lost to the Reds. Yes, there are a number of players on the current roster who should be sent to AAA, DFA, or put on the IL.
But it's still (for a few more hours at least) May. I waited all offseason for baseball and I refuse to give up on it after two months. The Sox get back in this thing by starting with a win tomorrow. Let's go from there.
Yes, they just lost a home series to the Orioles. Yes, they just lost to the Reds. Yes, there are a number of players on the current roster who should be sent to AAA, DFA, or put on the IL.
But it's still (for a few more hours at least) May. I waited all offseason for baseball and I refuse to give up on it after two months. The Sox get back in this thing by starting with a win tomorrow. Let's go from there.
This is what they are, I think. A ~.500 team that can win 5 in a row and then hit a bump, never really finding some consistency. Too many holes on both pitching and offense to be anything better than that. A healthy, dominant Chris Sale could change that, but I have my doubts. They also need more from their outfield and a real first baseman, both areas they rank bottom 5 of the majors in in wRC+. Then there's the bullpen which leads the majors in "meltdowns". That's a lot to overcome if they want to make a real run and chase down the teams ahead of them.
14-14 in May with a favorable schedule where the only division team they played was the Orioles. That's not good enough. After tomorrow they head west and the schedule really gets tough at the end of June and into the 2nd half when they play 20 of 23 games against the three teams ahead of them in the division.
Sometimes the answer is very simple: They have a dominant closer. He has 15 saves already this year.
When they have a lead, however slim, they hand it to him and he finishes the game. The Red Sox do not have that player.
If they did, they likely would have not blown all of those saves.
Isn't most of our run differential from that series with the White Sox? We outscored them 33-13 in a 3 game series. The Blue Jays largest margin of victory this season is 7 runs.
edit: The Blue Jays bullpen has also thrown the 24th fewest innings in baseball at 168.1 while the Red Sox have the 5th most in baseball at 201. Their starters have thrown 247 innings with a 3.35 FIP while the Red Sox starters have thrown 236.2 with a 4.37 FIP. They have played 2 fewer games than we have. Their pitching has just been better than ours. They bet that Gausman's breakout was real and it seems to be paying off pretty well for them so far. We don't have the elite starting pitching talent that the Blue Jays and Yankees have.
The Rays bullpen is unreal, they have actually thrown more innings than their starters, 221(3.34 ERA/4.00 FIP) vs 210 (3.39 ERA/3.46 FIP).
edit: The Blue Jays bullpen has also thrown the 24th fewest innings in baseball at 168.1 while the Red Sox have the 5th most in baseball at 201. Their starters have thrown 247 innings with a 3.35 FIP while the Red Sox starters have thrown 236.2 with a 4.37 FIP. They have played 2 fewer games than we have. Their pitching has just been better than ours. They bet that Gausman's breakout was real and it seems to be paying off pretty well for them so far. We don't have the elite starting pitching talent that the Blue Jays and Yankees have.
The Rays bullpen is unreal, they have actually thrown more innings than their starters, 221(3.34 ERA/4.00 FIP) vs 210 (3.39 ERA/3.46 FIP).
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Last year Toronto was +183, which was more than the Sox (+80) and MFY (+42) combined, but they won fewer games, significantly underperformed their pythag, and missed the playoffs.
This year is the reverse.
Baseball can be really weird.
This year is the reverse.
Baseball can be really weird.
