How exactly did he bet that those 3 pitchers would be healthy? Everyone on the planet knew that Paxton wasn't healthy when he signed, and the other 2 were signed to be bridges until Sale (and hopefully Paxton) returned.
I guess the question is who was available that Bloom could have signed that would have been healthy and effective all season long?
Just want to gently push back here. Wacha and Hill were not signed to be bridges to Sale and Paxton. They were signed before the lock-out and therefore before it was known that Sale was injured and would miss the start of the season. I don't think the expectation was that they'd each make 32 starts and throw 160-180 innings, but their signings certainly had little to do with Sale and his health.
Wow, that's a lot of injury days for starting pitchers. Almost makes you want to rethink the way starting pitchers are used.
Nov. 27: Wacha signed.
Maybe. I didn't take notes of what the injuries were while I compiled the list, but I would wager that a lot of them weren't related to or preventable by usage at all. They were just fluky injuries that could have happened if the pitcher were working in relief or on extra rest or not pitching at all. For example, Rich Hill tweaked his knee on a single pitch. The other time he missed was due to a COVID infection. Changing how he was used probably doesn't prevent either of those things from happening.
Thanks for posting the timeline. Wacha as an ERod replacement makes more sense. But I think Wacha/Hill also make sense if Bloom was thinking they'd need SP reinforcements in the (likely) event that Sale missed some time during the season. He just didn't expect it to happen before spring training even started. So sort of a combination of the two?
I can totally believe that Wacha and Hill (and Paxton) were signed with the idea that someone would end up on the IL at some point, perhaps multiple guys over the course of 162 games. Rotations/seasons like the 2004 Red Sox (original 5 making 157 total starts) just don't happen that often. It didn't even have to be Sale he had in mind. Injuries are an expected part of the game, but it's not possible to predict when they'll come or who will be impacted.
I remember some chatter about Hill having bullpen experience, and talk of "flexibility" with him and Wacha, but I don't know if that was just SoSH speculation or from the Sox.
Pivetta's IP totals make him much more than an SP4. He's 39th in baseball by fWAR and 46th in rWAR among qualified SP. He's not an ace, but that's not a number 4.
Pivetta seems roughly as valuable as Porcello was at the same age. Here are their age 28-29 seasons:
Oops. That 9.4 BB/9 must be a mistake. He walks too many hitters, but he's only walked 67 in 170.2 innings, and 65 in 155 last year, so about 3.65 per 9 innings (unless I misunderstand here).
After his shitty first 5 games he’s had an ERA of 3.85. He’s a good pitcher. A solid affordable mid-rotation guy that doesn’t get injured. He’s had incredibly good stretches and incredibly shitty stretches. But he’s one of the few starters on this team you can almost count on to give you a quality start every fifth game.
BOS is a hard to believe 20-45 in the AL East and one of the reasons is Pivetta:
No doubt he’s been shitty against the ALE. Would you bet he improves in ‘23 against them or gets even worse? I’d definitely go with “better”. He was balls against the Rays in ‘21 playoffs and very good against Houston.
The Sox automatically improve next year just by playing their division leas. In all seriousness, Pivetta is a reliable fifth starter and that is about it. This rotation needs a lot of help and I am not confident that Chris Sale will be all that much help next year.
This is a good point I actually forgot, teams will play 52 division games down from 76, so indeed less of a factor.
How is a guy that now has a nearly 2 year sample size of being a league average starter a 5th starter?
In an ideal Red Sox fan-world where no injuries occur, it’d be fantastic to have Pivetta as a “5” in the rotation but on any other team in the league he’s a solid mid rotation guy. For his cost and ability to not go on the DL (taking in his full season) he’s that.
I’d bet another pitcher we control longer — Crawford, maybe? — could put up the same overall numbers and use the opportunity to show they can stick.
Who's that?
Because the entire point is to trade a starter you've got two years of control over, for one year of a guy who has been league average in hitting just twice in his carer (including 40 something games in 2020).
Are you talking about Kepler? Because you’d have him for two years, not one. He’s got a 2024 club option.
Point taken - I won't judge this bold-faced prediction too quickly or harshly.
So, I think it's just super that we'll be getting more of this sort of thing.
Do you think Max Kepler outperforming Nick Pivetta is especially bold? He's done so the last four seasons. Do you have another plan for right field?
Once we transition away from actual wins and actual losses, I'm sure your insights will be appreciated for the unheralded genius which informs them.
Who's talking about genius? I think you're the only person on this board who uses that word, typically to talk about how much smarter than Alex Cora you are.
"Seasons" is the next old fashioned statistic to go after "wins."
