This is so disappointing.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743412612551827517?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743412612551827517?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Offseason rumors
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New idea: trade for Cease and then look into acquiring Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu (Both should come cheap!!). Conclude by hiring TLR to one of those ceremonial “special assistant to the GM jobs.” Unfortunately, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly aren’t available anymore.
As I said earlier in the thread I don't have an opinion on what road ownership is taking because I'm not sure we have enough data to figure that out. Like McAdam says it could be because they don't feel like they are there yet or if this is a more permanent thing. My question would be how many more years do we give them to show whether it's door 1 or door 2?
Cotillo can only write on what the Red Sox have done and what they’re doing in the next day or so. He can’t write about what they might do and he can’t wait around until the beginning of Spring Training to write up a comprehensive review of the off season.
His job is to write about the moves that the Sox have made (which isn’t many) and if they haven’t what the reasons are why they’ve been quiet—especially after one of the owners came out and said they were going “full throttle”.
If the Red Sox aren’t going to comment (which is their prerogative) he has to find someone who will. He can’t go to his bosses and say, “The Sox aren’t doing shit and aren’t saying shit, I’ll get ‘em tomorrow.” He’ll lose his job if he does that.
So he either has to talk to people outside of the organization or anonymous sources inside. Furthermore his job (like Peter Abe’s or any other “media enemy”) isn’t to do PR for the Sox. He has to dig up news and if he can’t get it from source , he has to find it.
it’s “not for clicks” or to “make a name”, it’s literally his job. The Sox are quiet, he’s trying to figure out why and I’m sorry it’s not what you want to hear but that’s not his fault. This is journalism 101.
Abraham, Cotillo, McAdam and the rest of the Sox beat writers are good at what they do. Saying that they’re muckrakers or don’t know what they’re talking about because they’re not writing sunshine everyday isn’t their problem.
His job is to write about the moves that the Sox have made (which isn’t many) and if they haven’t what the reasons are why they’ve been quiet—especially after one of the owners came out and said they were going “full throttle”.
If the Red Sox aren’t going to comment (which is their prerogative) he has to find someone who will. He can’t go to his bosses and say, “The Sox aren’t doing shit and aren’t saying shit, I’ll get ‘em tomorrow.” He’ll lose his job if he does that.
So he either has to talk to people outside of the organization or anonymous sources inside. Furthermore his job (like Peter Abe’s or any other “media enemy”) isn’t to do PR for the Sox. He has to dig up news and if he can’t get it from source , he has to find it.
it’s “not for clicks” or to “make a name”, it’s literally his job. The Sox are quiet, he’s trying to figure out why and I’m sorry it’s not what you want to hear but that’s not his fault. This is journalism 101.
Abraham, Cotillo, McAdam and the rest of the Sox beat writers are good at what they do. Saying that they’re muckrakers or don’t know what they’re talking about because they’re not writing sunshine everyday isn’t their problem.
Is it really that hard to envision them getting to, say, $225-230M, leaving a little bit of a cushion for the summer, if needed?
If they sign Teoscar and a guy like Imanaga, you’re basically there without cutting payroll. There are still plenty of guys worth spending money on.
I remain in a “wait and see” mode with this ownership group. If they start the season at like $200M and forego guys who can help this team, then I think this is a legitimate gripe. But we’re not there yet. I don’t begrudge those who are skeptical though. We need to see more.
If they sign Teoscar and a guy like Imanaga, you’re basically there without cutting payroll. There are still plenty of guys worth spending money on.
I remain in a “wait and see” mode with this ownership group. If they start the season at like $200M and forego guys who can help this team, then I think this is a legitimate gripe. But we’re not there yet. I don’t begrudge those who are skeptical though. We need to see more.
This should be pinned to the top of this thread.
its the same for all media members.
I am in wait and see mode like everyone else. Let’s hope these sources are wrong
Agreed. McAdam’s comment on the CBT threshold is really strange. As a fan I think it’s fair to criticize ownership for where the payroll has gone, but we don’t need to make things up.
Why do they need to leave room this year? I get the argument that it was valuable to leave the cushion last year for a mid season acquisition...but wasn't the point of last season to reset the CBT to allow spending this off-season and the next two? Maybe I'm confused about the rules on this.
They way they have operated in the past, as most big market clubs do, is spend over the tax for two years, and then reset before the 3rd year so you don't lose out on your big revenue sharing rebate check.
There is absolutely no need for them to not be over the tax this year, if they go over by 30 million their penalty will be like 4 million or something.
They are no longer doing what they have in the past, and are no longer keeping pace.
They definitely don’t have to stay below after resetting last year and having a lot of money coming off the books next year and I’m certainly not advocating for it.
This is why I want to see where they finish up this year because I think it’ll be a pretty valuable data point to how they plan on operating.
They don't ever need to leave room. They generate at least $500 million in revenue every season, and the valuation of the Red Sox has risen by $4 billion since John Henry bought the team. The most they've ever paid as a penalty for going over the luxury tax is $11 million. The draft pick and international signing bonus penalties are negligible in the sport where amateur talent evaluation is more uncertain than any other. The fact that baseball owners have tricked fans into earnestly arguing that spending money on the MLB team is somehow a competitive disadvantage is the scam of the century.
Same for me, but my data point will be opening day. There is no reason to worry about the CBT threshhold this season after resetting, and I continue to hope this talk about shedding salary is either strategic leaks ("we love this guy and don't want to trade him but... the budget") or the media echo chamber devolving into reposts of fan angst.
I mean, it's not an unreasonable request to present a couple of examples of that kind of thing as big market behavior if you're putting it forth as such. I'm trying to think of a big market team that will consistently just spend and spend on redundant talent and sort it all out later, and I'm not coming up with anything.
And if you did find that you had to dig through 50 years of transaction history to find a few examples, maybe it's just not what's normally done? It's an interesting hypothesis, no snark, but it shouldn't be surprising that you'd be asked to back it up a little here at SoSH.
To me, Cotillo is just another guy trying to make a name for himself in an incredibly cutthroat profession that needs eyeballs. Lots of eyeballs. I totally disagree with his assessment that it's evidence of anything in this instance, but he has a right to put his opinion out there, and let us each roll our eyes or nod in agreement. I doubt he cares which. As long as he gets the clicks and pages of attention on sites like this, he's doing what he has to to make a name for himself, and a living. I don't begrudge him that at all, in his medium.
I love this post. The only thing I'd disagree with a little is that "clicks" and "making a name" aren't part of it. These guys need readers (clicks) and name recognition to not only connect with readers in order to be effective in their jobs, but also to advance in a field where it has become very difficult to do so. I definitely agree that those who say those things with contempt are completely missing the point. As you said, it's literally their livelihood.
Just to be clear, the goal is to fix the roster. If they get there without spending a particular amount of money, is this bad? You guys are assuming that not spending to the tax limit means the team will be bad. I get that there's a correlation between spending and winning but it's definitely not *that* specific. If the roster is strong and they haven't shot their entire wad, I'll be fine. [So yeah, again, we have to wait.]
And the Red Sox are the only team in MLB in the top 5 of both those lists… Point of interest and sometimes contention for me.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/03/23/forbes-yankees-have-7-b-valuation-athletics-post-top-5-profit/11530150002/
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1743446057172758579?s=46
Here comes Speier - backing up everything that’s been said by other beats to this point.
Too much smoke involved here. Pretty scary stuff really.
Here comes Speier - backing up everything that’s been said by other beats to this point.
Too much smoke involved here. Pretty scary stuff really.
Yup…this jibes with all of the other reports about the team. The smoke surrounding the team is not good right now.
Yuck. Besides largely confirming the Athletic:
- Not expected to land Snell / Montgomery.
- They were pursuing Imanaga "aggressively" early in the offseason, but "now described as “lurking” in Imanaga’s free agency rather than as one of the most involved teams."
- Only willing to go 2 years on Teoscar.
The one reason this “cutting payroll” stuff does not pass the smell test for me is that, the sox usually will try and get in front of news like this. For example the bridge year comments during the theo days.
they (FO+Kennedy etc) know they are going to be asked about this ad nauseam and wont be able to just ignore it.
they (FO+Kennedy etc) know they are going to be asked about this ad nauseam and wont be able to just ignore it.
The biggest thing I see there is Sox haven’t offered more than two years on Teoscar, which is reassuring.
Everything else to me is noise, get back to me in 6 weeks.
Additionaly, I think having a limit just under the tax line when you’re not certain you’re contending makes some sense! Contrary to what someone else said tonight (can’t find the post now), the draft penalties are huge, more for the reduction of pool money you get instead of where you’re picking.
Everything else to me is noise, get back to me in 6 weeks.
Additionaly, I think having a limit just under the tax line when you’re not certain you’re contending makes some sense! Contrary to what someone else said tonight (can’t find the post now), the draft penalties are huge, more for the reduction of pool money you get instead of where you’re picking.
How doesn’t it “pass the smell test”? Look at their actions and not their words.
Since some folks were speculating that the breathing room below the CBT last year may have been for potential trade deadline moves, here’s everyone’s favorite reporter throwing cold water on that:
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743451845396218260?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1743451845396218260?s=46
Am i reading the same article as everyone else? It does say the Sox appear to be focused on trading for a starter rather than signing one of the free agents. That’s been discussed as a possibility from the moment Giolito signed.
Speier goes on to write
The entirety of that piece appears to be that it’s still too early to know what the Sox are going to do. They aren’t interested in the contracts that will be required to sign Snell and Montgomery, they remain interested in trading for a starter, they are not looking to cut payroll but are looking to reallocate it, they are offering Hernandez two years, which appears to be his market right now, and they’re willing to deal Masa.
I honestly don’t understand why every article and tweet leads to this same freakout. If we get to Opening Day and the team isn’t a legitimate playoff contender, let’s get angry. But right now we just don’t have any idea what they’re going to do.
Speier goes on to write
As to only wanting to offer Hernandez two years, obviously no one else had offered three either. In fact, Speier notes that
In other words, for right now at least, offering more than two years for him doesn’t appear to be necessary.
The entirety of that piece appears to be that it’s still too early to know what the Sox are going to do. They aren’t interested in the contracts that will be required to sign Snell and Montgomery, they remain interested in trading for a starter, they are not looking to cut payroll but are looking to reallocate it, they are offering Hernandez two years, which appears to be his market right now, and they’re willing to deal Masa.
I honestly don’t understand why every article and tweet leads to this same freakout. If we get to Opening Day and the team isn’t a legitimate playoff contender, let’s get angry. But right now we just don’t have any idea what they’re going to do.
My only concern with your post is the word "reallocate". Why do they need to do that this year? Any moves should be driven by winning - not payroll - but otherwise I agree that it's worth waiting to see how that plays out.
"significantly under" and "did not come close". I wish the Sox would spend more but $8m short of $233? I think Cotillo got some pushback and is getting defensive. We're talking 3% here.
I get the angst but I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to demand a front office that can put together a winning team for $200-$220 million or whatever the number is.
If they’ve been spending inefficiently. it makes sense to try to spend more efficiently.
All that said, ownership needs to be careful. They canned the scapegoat and the narrative is clearly retargeting while the franchise across town is outspending them on a 15 man roster in a salary cap league.
If they’ve been spending inefficiently. it makes sense to try to spend more efficiently.
All that said, ownership needs to be careful. They canned the scapegoat and the narrative is clearly retargeting while the franchise across town is outspending them on a 15 man roster in a salary cap league.
If the sox are going to be operating in a vastly different manner than they have during their entire time owning the sox, they would usually get in front of it.
I mean we have teams that are using the RSN collapse as a reason to cut salaries (see the Padres for example)
when was the last time the sox have “cut salaries” to the extent that has been reported this offseason? I dont think that has ever happened. They have pretty much always been in the top 10 of payroll since they bought the team
I agree, I don’t have a good answer for that right now, and have said previously that if the Sox aren’t a top three or four payroll team in two years I will be very disappointed. For now, like you said, I just want to see what the rest of the offseason brings.
The problem is, they still lack top-end talent to be a winning team. I sure hope the idea is to bridge the gap to our youngsters, versus a general philosophy of not spending close to the CBT.
are people freaking out? All of these posts are saying “this doesn’t sound good” or yuck. People are freaking out way more about others assumed freak outs than the actual happenings
As we say in court, all of the takes assume facts not in evidence. Hearsay - "An out of court statement offered for the truth of the matter asserted" is not admissible in court because it is inheritably unreliable. Most of these takes are based on just hearsay/rumor. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not. I go back to the Cotillo comment that the Sox were to stay significantly under the CBT - which way overclaims the facts he provides.
None of this is to say reporters are doing anything wrong per se - their job is to write stories - and no one is interested in a story that says we don't know anything yet.
But we really don't know at this point - and there is no prize for being right.
None of this is to say reporters are doing anything wrong per se - their job is to write stories - and no one is interested in a story that says we don't know anything yet.
But we really don't know at this point - and there is no prize for being right.
Maybe. Are they so off a 2013-esque roster if a few things break right alongside 2-3 more impact moves?
Admittedly, they do not have a Lester or an Ortiz.
I don't subscribe to the Globe - is this confirming the Althetic report with additional sources of is it relying on that report?
Speier cited "major league sources" confirming the report that the Sox were listening on Yoshida (he also added in Jansen) and that the purpose would be to free money for other acquisitions.
Clearly a big market team would give Cotillio something to write about.
Ah. The gentleman is only situationally beholden to the truth and has an economic incentive to color facts in the pursuit of entertainment.
Over the last 5 years several teams have significantly increased spending. They include the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and Padres. Our payroll has declined. When that many teams pass you in payroll it becomes an ownership problem. Revenue is not down.
As has been demonstrated numerous times in these various threads, the Red Sox payroll was top three in the game until 2022 and 2023, when the Sox were rebuilding. If it doesn’t return to those heights in the next two years now the Sox have emerged from the rebuild we’ll all be disappointed. The Sox roster when the season opens should give us some clues about the likelihood of that happening.
Has it declined or fluctuated, as it has done multiple times in the last 20 years?
I understand the context of other teams spending more but it’s also important to spend better. Spending just to spend doesn’t get you anywhere.
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Next year's free agent class is very robust, especially in the pitching department.
I'm as disappointed in this offseason as the rest of us, but spending unwisely can prevent the team from improving meaningfully by paying big money to mediocre performers.
If they start locking up some of these core pieces on long-term deals (like Casas and Bello) some of this will make more sense.
I'm as disappointed in this offseason as the rest of us, but spending unwisely can prevent the team from improving meaningfully by paying big money to mediocre performers.
If they start locking up some of these core pieces on long-term deals (like Casas and Bello) some of this will make more sense.
If the Red Sox were rebuilding in 2022 and 2023, why don’t they be doing so in 2024, too? What’s changed in the last two years?
Was under the impression that they were looking to contend in each of the last two years, and assumed they were this year too.
Per spotrac from 2019-2023 our luxury tax spending decreased by $60 million. The six teams I’ve listed have increased theirs by a combined $520 million. When it comes to spending smart we’ve fallen behind the teams with top farm systems like the Braves and Orioles.
Its a considerably weaker class that this year. Why are we thinking that they are going to get better values then?
Edit to post more content: The top guys are a 41 year old Max Scherzer, Zach Wheeler, Max Fried, Bieber and Corbin Burnes. DD will almost certainly make a strong offer to Wheeler as will the Braves with Fried. A number of those guys will have deals before FA, perhaps Burnes, Bieber and Scherzer make it to FA.
What are you talking about? Honestly, what point are you making? Do you not know what has changed for the 2024 season?
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