Offseason rumors

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YTF

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This is very silly. The amount of mental back flips people do on this board to defend the front office is bizzare.

I’m saying he could have been signed and he could have been signed for 3/54mm. There is NOTHING unreasonable about that assumption given he signed for 1/24 with 8 million of it deferred.

Again, this isn’t a disaster. But it is disappointing given the fit, lack of QO, and overall cost.
Honest question, do we know what (if anything) Hernandez's agent countered with? Do we know what other offers were out there? Is it fair to think that his market wasn't what he hoped it would be? $23.5 M is a sweet, one year, bet on yourself type contract on a team full of stars that could help boost his individual stats as he heads back into free agency.
 

pokey_reese

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Yeah, it's easy to dump on the 2/28 offer, if that's even what it actually was. But trying to extrapolate what it would have taken to sign him from that is useless, given the information that other teams were also interested, and knowing that he ultimately signed for 1/23. We can assume that other offers were between 2-4 years (most likely), and that either the AAV for those was more than 14 and less than 23, or else the Sox had the best offer on the table aside from LA, in which case maybe he just wanted to go play on the best (on paper) team in 20+ years while setting himself up for another good contract next year.

Hard to say the Sox messed this up, with the information we have, regardless of how it turns out.
 

triptych

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Depending on how the deferred money gets calculated, I’m thinking the Dodgers offer might not be wildly different from 28/2. Don’t forget, the Mariners didn’t see fit to offer him the QO.
This. I believe that on a conservative depreciation rate, the $8.5m deferred has a current value of about $5.5m. So for comparison, its a $20.5m 1 year contract versus a $28m two year offer. Depending on how TH values the security of the 2nd year, those are pretty comparable offers.
 

grimshaw

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Teoscar is probably fool's gold, NO one offered him what he wanted. Not at all perturbed by this.
Ya, I'm not really upset either. I can't stand watching guys who k 30% of the time anyhow. If they move on to Soler I'm fine with it, but these guys are just placeholders anyhow if Anthony is ready next year.
 

jbupstate

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What does the great Teoscar offer for one year that Duvall doesn’t at a cheaper price?

Duvall was a better hitter last year and is a competent fielder. Duvall 119 OPS+ vs 106. Duvall hit 21 home runs, 6 less than Teoscar in 325 less plate appearances.

Why pay Hernandez a penny more than Duvall? Much less add years and tens of millions.

fake edit… Soler’s number look way better at least.
 

simplicio

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I'm not sure I understand a Soler pivot over just reuniting with Turner or Duval, who at least offer some positional versatility. He had a nice season but it's his first good one since 2019; is there any indication that he can be expected to continue performing at that level?
 

chawson

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This is a drag. Teoscar’s a likable player and I was into the idea of signing him kickstarting a few other moves.

On the bright side, but there are enough right-handed DH+ options out there that it made sense not going long on a Teoscar deal.

Proj. 2024
Bell*
Cooper
Cron
Duvall
Hernández
Hoskins
India*
Jiménez*
Kyle Lewis
Polanco*
Sánchez
Soler
Turner
*trade option

Would really love to see an Eloy Jiménez deal. Hoskins is a good fit. It might also be smart to trade for India or Polanco as our primary DH, as a Plan B for Grissom.
 

RS2004foreever

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It's funny - the Red Sox have been acquiring slow bad fielding right handed power hitters for as long as I can recall.
Soler's DRS in the few games he played in right really falls within the definition of obscenity.
OPS +128 last year.

So as of this moment
C Wong
1 Casas
2 Grissom
ss Story
3b devers
lf Yoshida
cf Duran
rf Abreu/Rafaella
DH Soler
 

cantor44

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I'm not sure I understand a Soler pivot over just reuniting with Turner or Duval, who at least offer some positional versatility. He had a nice season but it's his first good one since 2019; is there any indication that he can be expected to continue performing at that level?
Me either. I would have been glad to have Teoscar, but Duvall seems like a much better option than Soler. I mean, damn. Signing Soler seems like another reactive move.
 

Harry Hooper

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I'm not sure I understand a Soler pivot over just reuniting with Turner or Duval, who at least offer some positional versatility. He had a nice season but it's his first good one since 2019; is there any indication that he can be expected to continue performing at that level?
Yes, is there some kind of distortion field operating at Fenway compelling the front office to add more DHs?
 

RS2004foreever

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Me either. I would have been glad to have Teoscar, but Duvall seems like a much better option than Soler. I mean, damn. Signing Soler seems like another reactive move.
You could still sign Duvall since Soler isn't going to play in the field. If you did that you would have a lot of power in the lineup.
This doesn't make much sense to me but Soler could easily hit 40 home runs.
 

Sox Puppet

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I say we go all in. Jettison Trevor Story and Connor Wong and let's see if we can assemble the worst fielding team in history.
 

chawson

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Soler and O’Neill are #5 and #6 in expected wOBA vs. left-handed pitching since 2020, behind only Judge, Goldschmidt, Acuña, and Josh Jung.
 

Max Power

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It's funny - the Red Sox have been acquiring slow bad fielding right handed power hitters for as long as I can recall.
Soler's DRS in the few games he played in right really falls within the definition of obscenity.
OPS +128 last year.

So as of this moment
C Wong
1 Casas
2 Grissom
ss Story
3b devers
lf Yoshida
cf Duran
rf Abreu/Rafaella
DH Soler
You're missing O'Neill, who is very good defensively and should handle either CF or RF.
 

ehaz

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Is Soler expected to get significantly less than Justin Turner? Going after Teoscar makes sense because he’s not a DH. Soler presents the same issue as Turner in that you’re taking their bat out of the lineup any time you want to DH Yoshida.
 
Aug 31, 2006
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I understand the appeal of Soler as a DH; he has 30 HR power and destroys left-handed pitching. I do have defensive concerns with an outfield that includes Yoshida in left field and Duran in center field full time. If Soler is in, one of them needs to be traded.
 

BringBackMo

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Yeah I’m aware. So he’s here to eat innings and possibly rebound to a 3.79 ERA on a one year contract. It’s still not a consequential signing for a team that is clearly making an effort to get younger before they get better. That’s fine. But why are you pretending the Giolito signing has anything to do with building the next good Sox team?
How is he pretending that signing Giolito has anything to do with the next good Sox team? I didn’t read that in anything he wrote.

Your original post was, Let’s face it, they’re not going to sign anyone of consequence this off season.

He responded by asking what you would call Giolito and counseling patience until the end of the off-season.

You responded by saying Giolito wasn’t particularly good.

He responded by pointing out that Giolito was pitching well last season and then had a terrible end to the season that coincided with troubles in his personal life.

You responded that you were aware of that and asked him why he was pretending something that as far as I can tell he never in any way implied.
 

BringBackMo

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I'm not sure I understand a Soler pivot over just reuniting with Turner or Duval, who at least offer some positional versatility. He had a nice season but it's his first good one since 2019; is there any indication that he can be expected to continue performing at that level?
I agree. I’d like to see them bring Duval back.
 

cantor44

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You could still sign Duvall since Soler isn't going to play in the field. If you did that you would have a lot of power in the lineup.
This doesn't make much sense to me but Soler could easily hit 40 home runs.
Yes, that's quite true, and I'd be better with that - might be nice actually. In that case no room for Yoshida any longer is there?

EDIT: Meanwhile, who backs up first base right now? Dalbec I guess makes the squad. Maybe the reason to bring Turner back wtih Soler ...But there'd still be no room for Yoshida.
So: Wong, Casas, Grissom, Story, Devers, Duran, O'Neill, Abreu, Soler Bench: Turner, Refsynder, McGuire, Reyes, (Rafaela) ...with Turner cycling in a lot, rotating with Soler and outfielders ...

OR: Wong, Casas, Grissom, Story, Devers, Duran, Duval, Abreau, Soler Bench: O'Niell, Refsynder, McGuire, Reyes, Dalbec? (Rafaela?) Too many outfielders ...Seems like Refsynder maybe out in this plan ...?
 
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Aug 31, 2006
133
South Acton, Mass.
Meanwhile, who backs up first base right now?
My pick would be Garrett Cooper as your 4th bench player. He's got lots of experience at 1B, plays a credible corner outfield and could platoon with either Duran or Abreu if needed (Yoshida probably doesn't need a platoon partner), and has a ton of power from the right side. He's never been able to stay healthy for a full season, which is why he'll be available for bench money. Spotrac suggests he's worth 2 years/$14 million, but he didn't even warrant a crowdsource prediction from Fangraphs, so my cocktail napkin prediction is 1 year/$3 million.

Other free agent right-handed hitters with experience at 1B and some positional versatility include Donovan Solano, Jordan Luplow, Jurickson Profar (switch hitter), Wil Myers, Trey Mancini, Matt Duffy, Hunter Dozier, and old friend Michael Chavis. Then again, at some point in that list it's probably just worth putting Bobby Dalbec on the active roster.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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While I'm upset the Red Sox didn't / couldn't / wouldn't / whatever sign Hernandez to something like 3/$60m, I'm glad they didn't sign him for 1/$20m. I have literally zero interest in one year deals to offensive players unless it is directly tied to moving OFs for pitching. Being around 73 wins without Teoscar vs maybe 75 wins with him is totally irrelevant to me. Based on what we have right now (specifically in the rotation) I'd rather see what the kids can do in an outfield alignment of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF with Yoshida as the DH.

Immediate deal of young outfielders for pitching aside, I have no interest in Hernandez, Soler, Duvall, Turner or anyone really for one year.

My hope was that TH was signed for the medium term while someone from the above grouping was moved as part of a deal to acquire controllable starting pitching for the rotation Didn't happen. But no interest in anyone for the offense on a one year deal.

Truth be told, I'm only interested in one year pitching contracts if it is for another direct move (ie Giolito in and Sale out) or if it's AFTER the team has sold off Jansen, Martin and Pivetta first and then to replace them to hopefully flip again in July.

Better to let the kids start their cycle of adjustments necessary to see if they can stick as MLB players than waste a third straight season with one year bridge to nothing contracts.



Edit - Deleted it myself. If a Dope things it's not a serious "rumor" no need to go down this road.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Feels like largely “six of one, half dozen of the other” on these swing-for-the-fences types, but I’m a simple guy:
  • Soler is 31 whereas Duvall is 35.
  • Soler put up .340 OBP last season where Duvall put up .303 and Teoscar put up. 305.
I’m sure I’m not gonna love Soler’s total lack of D, but I think I’m good with him as the “consolation prize” here.
 

Fishy1

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Feels like largely “six of one, half dozen of the other” on these swing-for-the-fences types, but I’m a simple guy:
  • Soler is 31 whereas Duvall is 35.
  • Soler put up .340 OBP last season where Duvall put up .303 and Teoscar put up. 305.
I’m sure I’m not gonna love Soler’s total lack of D, but I think I’m good with him as the “consolation prize” here.
I'm not sure why we're so eager to run it back with Duvall or sign Soler. Sure, Duvall was good last year in limited time, but the recency bias on here about the guy drives me nuts. It was the best "partial" season he's ever put together. He's got a career OPS+ of 99, and has never posted an OPS+ better than 106 in a full season, and that happened all the way back in 2016. He's a middling player who was hot while he was healthy last year.

I'd be fine with us signing either of them, but I'm not sure why these are the deals we're pining after. These guys are 1-2.5 win players. If we want real difference makers, we'll have to dip into the prospect bin and deal from there, I think.
 

RS2004foreever

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Four players - fangraphs has Duvall falling off a cliff. Not much difference here.
Hernandez .259/.310/.471 Def War -8 Total War 1.9
Soler .244/333/479 Def -13.6 Total War 2.0 War
Hoskins .246/.332/.462 Def -15 Total War 2.3
Duvall .217/.277/.423 .4 War (surprising)
 

simplicio

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Feels like largely “six of one, half dozen of the other” on these swing-for-the-fences types, but I’m a simple guy:
  • Soler is 31 whereas Duvall is 35.
  • Soler put up .340 OBP last season where Duvall put up .303 and Teoscar put up. 305.
I’m sure I’m not gonna love Soler’s total lack of D, but I think I’m good with him as the “consolation prize” here.
My concern with Soler is he was completely average offensively from 2020-22, so what if that guy shows up? Sounds like a terrible fit for a dedicated DH.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I like Soler a lot more than most but the problem with him is he just cannot play in the field what so ever. So you are then forced into a DH/LF platoon with Soler and Yoshida which means you are looking at 100 games of Yoshida in left. Obviously less than ideal.

This team still has a lot of defensive work needed. I'm not so sure the easiest path to that isn't just trading Duran and plugging in Rafaela in center. But they have to accomplish some defensive upgrades beyond just Story (which is admittedly huge)
 

chawson

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My concern with Soler is he was completely average offensively from 2020-22, so what if that guy shows up? Sounds like a terrible fit for a dedicated DH.
The batting lines have certainly been erratic. Worth noting though that KC and Miami have both played as extreme home run-suppressing parks for RHB though.

Park Factors for Home Runs - RHB (100 is average)
2019: KC - 68 (30th)
2020: KC - 99 (12th)
2021: KC - 78 (26th)
2021: ATL - 101 (14th)
2022: MIA - 87 (22nd)
2023: MIA - 78 (27th)

Of course, Fenway also suppresses home runs, but with his spray chart and fly ball rate it would seem like a good chunk of those will be doubles instead of fly outs.
 

Max Power

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My concern with Soler is he was completely average offensively from 2020-22, so what if that guy shows up? Sounds like a terrible fit for a dedicated DH.
2020 was a small sample season and he had back issues in 2021 and 2022. That would be a big concern, but he came back healthy and hitting in 2023. I don't think there's enough positional versatility on the rest of the roster to carry a dedicated DH in the days of 13 man pitching staffs. Cora and Breslow would have to get together to figure out how the bench would work with him on the team.
 

YTF

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I am down with Duvall playing either RF or CF. I also think one of Duran or Rafaela should be part of a package for a SP.
Yes, Yoshida, O'Neill, Duran, Rafaela, RFsnyder, Abreu pretty much sees one of those guys moving on if the Sox bring in another OF. I suppose that Rafaela could start the season in AAA, but his defense probably requires him on the 26 man. Does Abreu still have options?
 

BeantownIdaho

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Dec 5, 2005
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How does a "signing bonus' affect payroll in terms of the luxury tax? Is the entire signing bonus part of the first year salary figure, is it spread out or is it not part of the figure at all?
 

Hee Sox Choi

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I suppose that Rafaela could start the season in AAA, but his defense probably requires him on the 26 man.
The list of successful players with Ceddanne’s near 40% chase rate and low zone contact rate is pretty much ZERO. He should start in triple and work on swing decisions for at least half a season IMO.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I cannot remember the thread or member that posted…. Not too many contracts being handed out over two years so far. Seems like this might not be an ownership mandate.
Deleted my part of that post as per the comments from a Dope. I don't want to be clogging up the board with something that maybe shouldn't be taken as a serious "rumor."
 
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loneredseat

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Jimmy Stewart (producer on Felger&Mazz, generally pretty reliable, at least on hoops stuff, but really who knows as far as "reliable" goes any more) dropped in a nugget for the 10 minutes they talk about the Red Sox on Friday that said he has heard from his sources that Breslow has been told he isn't allowed to go over two years on FA contracts.
This, to me, sounds absurd.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't care about any of the OF/DH guys that were being bandied about here. The OF as currently constructed (in some form of O'Neill, Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder and Yoshida) is fine IMO. Improves the defense from last season (I'm probably more bullish on Duran and Rafaela than most). The last remaining opening from my POV on offense is getting Turner back as the regular DH at home and backup corner guy to rest Casas, Devers on away games (with Yoshida in LF at Fenway and mostly DH away). Provides the RH power too that everyone wants and will likely be able to be had on another 1 year deal.
Other than.... it's just one more starting pitcher out of the SIMS group OR a trade for a SP.
But Teoscar, Soler, etc..... just no. I haven't been convinced by any of the arguments here that he was a fit short term or long term at all.
 

CR67dream

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This, to me, sounds absurd.
My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with a girl who saw Breslow pass-out at Legal Seafoods last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

Seriously, it could be a nugget of truth, maybe the real story is he needs to bring longer deals to ownership. Or just the bullshit it looks like.
 
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