Offseason rumors

Status
Not open for further replies.

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,312
And Refsnyder (to my mind) is worse than redundant -- he put up an 87 OPS+ in 240 PAs last year and has bounced around the Majors as a AAAA type guy. He seems like a good guy in his interviews, but is the kind of player that I think the Red Sox should be looking to move away from.
Refsnyder should basically never play vs RHP, but he's really good against lefties. He just saw too much non-platoon time last year cause of injuries taking Duvall/Duran/Kiké out of the outfield for large chunks of time. Abreu needs a platoon so if he's in the final outfield mix, having Ref around is also valuable.

Also, he's the only one currently in Boston with any 1B experience to back up Casas.
 
Is this the Red Sox message board equivalent of FUD?

Snell and Montgomery have the same problem as Houck. They have a really have a tough time coming out six. Bello also ran out of gas at the end of last season.

So if you look at a rotation

Snell/Montgomery - 175
Bello - 175
Giolito - 180
Houck- 145
Pivetta - 160

Gives you about 835 IP and leaves with about 600 IP to cover with your bullpen. That is a lot.
Wait, what? Like, I'm not specifically advocating signing Snell or Montgomery but suggesting that they don't throw enough innings (Montgomery in particular) just doesn't hold up. Snell obviously has durability questions, so I'll grant you that. When healthy though he can give you innings. In '23 he got through 6 or more innings in 20/32 starts, and 5 of the starts where he threw under 6 were his first 5 starts of the year. Montgomery was a bit better than that.

Overall Montgomery threw an average of 5.9 innings per start and Snell threw 5.63 innings per start. Houck threw 5.05 innings per start.
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,688
Oregon
Remember the away games during the World Series when Papi had to play first base......
Jeff Suppan does

elsewhere, Dylan Cease and White Sox avoided arbitration today. Don't know if that has any bearing on when they might deal him, but it's one less problem for an acquiring team
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Refsnyder is just what is needed for a fourth outfielder since he is cheap and puts up great numbers against lefties: .308/.428/.400 against lefties last year and .359/.411/.594 the year before.

I think the need for a backup 1B and 3B and frequent DH would be a much better target for the Sox at this point (and should only be a priority after the starting pitching is settled).
Refsnyder should basically never play vs RHP, but he's really good against lefties. He just saw too much non-platoon time last year cause of injuries taking Duvall/Duran/Kiké out of the outfield for large chunks of time.
Yes, sorry, he does hit LHP, and that has some value in that role. Should have been clearer about that. Still, I want a part-time DH/OF/etc who can hit both LHP and RHP and doesn't have the limitations of a player like Refsnyder, which I agree with YLT remains a priority.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,538
Jeff Suppan does

elsewhere, Dylan Cease and White Sox avoided arbitration today. Don't know if that has any bearing on when they might deal him, but it's one less problem for an acquiring team
as an aside, Jeff Suppan used to have a restaurant/sports bar like a block from my parent's house called Soup's Grill

 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
8,029
Boston, MA
Yes, sorry, he does hit LHP, and that has some value in that role. Should have been clearer about that. Still, I want a part-time DH/OF/etc who can hit both LHP and RHP and doesn't have the limitations of a player like Refsnyder, which I agree with YLT remains a priority.
A player who can hit with no platoon split is a starter, not someone who would be content to be a part-timer.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,202
I think what is being lost here is the finite number of both roster spots and the remaining budget.

We’ve heard from plenty of reliable sources (at least they’re reliable in my opinion) of the team sticking with that $227m budget (well $225m last year was approximately 97% of $LTT, and I’m using the same percentage, just with this year‘s number).

Haven’t seen RSP updated yet, but I believe O’Neill’s settlement was around $500k more than his projected arb (at least on Spotrac) which puts the Sox at $201.5m (and $25.5m below).

Adding Soler, almost by definition means Duran back to CF, another year of horrible d in LF (which is fine if the bat is good enough), but you’ve weakened your OF defense because Duran is should almost assuredly be better in LF than Yoshida or Soler AND the double edged sword is you’ve made your D worse in CF going from Rafaela to Duran.

The lineup might be a little better, but you’ve still committed to a year of DH/OF situation of let’s say Soler/Duran/O’Neill/Yoshida/Refsnyder and we again go into next year having no better idea of if Rafaela or Abreu can handle MLB pitching.

Plus, the bigger thing is, I believe @Rovin Romine was just picking a low number to make a point, but I’ll go with it. That means the payroll is $206.5m and you’ve ensured not landing Montgomery or Snell.

So, in summation, the pitching hasn’t improved, the OF defense has gotten worse, you’ve made O’Neill and Refsnyder even more redundant than they already are (and we have to pay Refsnyder, even though I agree Soler is obv a far better offensive player) and the line up is probably a bit better.

Soler only makes sense after a) the starting pitching has been addressed or b) with a trade of other OF. Otherwise, it doesn’t do nearly enough to fix the biggest problems on the team and only uses up finite resources (the $25.5m left to spend). I also would wager he’s likely to cost at least $10m per year, if not more.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,312
I don't think they got O'Neill to platoon, he's been above average vs RHP for his career (he was down a bit last year, but not awful). I think he's our starting RF/CF.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,202
RSP is updated and currently stands at $202.1.
Thanks! I just found the attachment for it too.

Means $25m almost exactly, assuming the budget increase with the Lux Tax increase, which I have to assume FSG allows since they understand inflation.

So even Soler at $5m is untenable on its own if we’re going to stick with the “it’s still early” and “it’s just agents” refrain, as its nearly a certainty that none of Montgomery, Snell or probably Stroman are coming to Boston for less than $20m AAV.

(And Soler is going to get considerably more than $5m.)

On the current team with the current limit, there is literally no dollar amount at which he makes sense, absent a sizable trade in the OF (ie, moving Yoshida to clear the salary or moving Duran / Abreu / Rafaela for starting pitching - and you’re not getting much in the way of starting pitching for Duran / Abreu / Rafaela anyway, so the move almost has to be Yoshida for it to make sense).

As @scottieo2 pointed out, Soler could fit with a trade of Jansen and Martin instead of Yoshida. Which is fair. So make that “only makes sense with a trade of Yoshida OR Jansen and Martin.
 
Last edited:

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,811
Alamogordo
Is this the Red Sox message board equivalent of FUD?

Snell and Montgomery have the same problem as Houck. They have a really have a tough time coming out six. Bello also ran out of gas at the end of last season.

So if you look at a rotation

Snell/Montgomery - 175
Bello - 175
Giolito - 180
Houck- 145
Pivetta - 160

Gives you about 835 IP and leaves with about 600 IP to cover with your bullpen. That is a lot.
835 innings from starter would have put them around 13th in the league last year.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,158
Continuing obsession with Duvall is pure recency and familiarity bias. The guy has an OPS+ OF 99 for his career exactly and he could fall off a cliff any day defensively and offensively. And hes fallen off many cliff offensively in his career.

Soler I get though. Guy has raked for a while with brief interludes of mediocrity, but he shouldn't take much to lock in. He can switch out with Yoshida in LF too, as far as I care. If they move him they probably sell on Duran, Rafaela or Abreu.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,312
Continuing obsession with Duvall is pure recency and familiarity bias. The guy has an OPS+ OF 99 for his career exactly and he could fall off a cliff any day defensively and offensively. And hes fallen off many cliff offensively in his career.

Soler I get though. Guy has raked for a while with brief interludes of mediocrity, but he shouldn't take much to lock in. He can switch out with Yoshida in LF too, as far as I care. If they move him they probably sell on Duran, Rafaela or Abreu.
Career numbers don't entirely serve Duvall though. He came to Fenway and immediately posted a career high pull rate (a 10% increase over '22). He's really good at using the park. 76456
76457
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,678
We’ve heard from plenty of reliable sources (at least they’re reliable in my opinion) of the team sticking with that $227m budget (well $225m last year was approximately 97% of $LTT, and I’m using the same percentage, just with this year‘s number).
Big Papi's Mango Salsa! I do not think this is a fair assumption. It seems like every day that goes by this moves closer to a confirmed report.

The only thing that's been floated, as far as I know, is that Cotillo's source said the Sox were required to stay at $225 million payroll before the season and at some point during the season. Which, I really gotta say, is not news! Not only because it's an unsubstantiated single-sourced leak, but because everyone that follows the Red Sox knew they were dipping under the tax last year, and most people understand that it's routine to leave a cushion for midseason acquisitions.

It may very well could be policy going forward. I don't know and we shall see. And I get that you're doing a fair amount of gut-feeling speculation here, which is fine. But I definitely do not think we have heard from "plenty of reliable sources," and I strongly disagree that it's a safe assumption the Sox will be under the first CBT threshold indefinitely moving forward.
 
Last edited:

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,330
There are no sure-fire players left. Everyone has warts. So you can just hope your kids play well and develop or you sign someone knowing they’re not a star.

It sucks - But it is what it is.

I’m far less concerned with our offense than I am our defense and pitching.
What sure fire players were there this offseason? Ohtani and who else?
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,655
What sure fire players were there this offseason? Ohtani and who else?
None really. I’m just saying free agency is very challenging in the era of teams extending their players (the Braves, Tatis Jr, Franco (I know I know)) before they are ever available.

Gotta build from within - Hope Bailey can help usher in a pitching era for us.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,312
Big Papi's Mango Salsa! I do not think this is a fair assumption. It seems like every day that goes by this moves closer to a confirmed report. Now

The only thing that's been floated, as far as I know, is that Cotillo's source said the Sox were required to stay at $225 million payroll before the season and at some point during the season. Which, I lreally gotta say, is not news! Not only because it's an unsubstantiated single-sourced leak, but because everyone that follows the Red Sox knew they were dipping under the tax last year, and most people understand that it's routine to leave a cushion for midseason acquisitions.

It may very well could be policy going forward. I don't know and we shall see. And I get that you're doing a fair amount of gut-feeling speculation here, which is fine. But I definitely do not think we have heard from "plenty of reliable sources," and I strongly disagree that it's a safe assumption the Sox will be under the first CBT threshold indefinitely moving forward.
We don't know and we shall see, indeed, but I'd note that there's considerable smoke at this junction to the idea of a spending limit still in place, from Cotillo but also McCaffrey and Speier, and I think it's notable that none of them are pushing back on the idea that Henry wants to stay around a certain sub-CBT payroll again this year. Is everything written about the topic a careful power struggle played out in public between ownership and player agents? Possibly. We don't know and we shall see.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,202
Big Papi's Mango Salsa! I do not think this is a fair assumption. It seems like every day that goes by this moves closer to a confirmed report. Now

The only thing that's been floated, as far as I know, is that Cotillo's source said the Sox were required to stay at $225 million payroll before the season and at some point during the season. Which, I really gotta say, is not news! Not only because it's an unsubstantiated single-sourced leak, but because everyone that follows the Red Sox knew they were dipping under the tax last year, and most people understand that it's routine to leave a cushion for midseason acquisitions.

It may very well could be policy going forward. I don't know and we shall see. And I get that you're doing a fair amount of gut-feeling speculation here, which is fine. But I definitely do not think we have heard from "plenty of reliable sources," and I strongly disagree that it's a safe assumption the Sox will be under the first CBT threshold indefinitely moving forward.
But that’s not the only thing that’s been floated. If it were just Cotillo and nobody else, I’d disregard it totally. If it were just Cotillo, McAdam and Carrabis, I’d certainly find it plausible they have the same source (MassLive being the entity for 2 of the 3).

But when you have Speier not debunking it and talking about the need to move payroll to pursue other moves, that’s a pretty big piece of information.

When you have McCaffrey not only talking about it like Speier does, but using the same number, it becomes even more difficult to ignore.

If one wants to say that Speier and McCaffrey are not reliable sources, that’s certainly their option. I sincerely doubt those two reporters, specifically, would continue to run with that if not double checking it with multiple sources.

Oh, and of course it’s routine to leave a cushion. Which is where the 97% number comes into play. I’m not saying they’re cheap, but I do think when the same thing is reported, unanimously (to my knowledge literally no reporter has countered it), and either in print supported (McCaffrey) or strongly implied (Speier) two with the cachet of those two, I take notice.

Could they be wrong, of course. But those are two excellent reporters providing the same supporting story.
 

RS2004foreever

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2022
671
Yankees made an offer on Snell - that wasn't close. It's an odd report. It sounds like it is coming from the agent - but it makes it sound like the market is softer than maybe they thought.
Soler confirmed on instagram he has an offer from the Red Sox. What that means I don't know.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,277
What is the market for Montgomery going to be? I just don’t see it. If the Red Sox extend themself in any way they can get him.

I think 5/135 might get him.
We’ll see. I suspect they aren’t going beyond 2 years on anyone unless it’s really, really favorable. I’d call that deal mildly favorable.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,121
We’ll see. I suspect they aren’t going beyond 2 years on anyone unless it’s really, really favorable. I’d call that deal mildly favorable.
I don’t disagree, which is a shame, because as I said a week ago, this market feels much softer than originally expected.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,661
Yanks signed Stroman to 2 years 37M with a 3rd year option afterwards... remarkably close to Giolito's deal, whom I was comparing Stroman to in my head just now.

Would rather have Giolito's upside even with the player opt-out
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,277
The paths to spending the remaining $$ under the tax continue to shrink. Which would be fine if they were avoiding deals that invoked long term risk. But that’s not the case. Still need to wait and see, but tough to maintain optimism.
 

grepal

New Member
Jul 20, 2005
193
I think what is being lost here is the finite number of both roster spots and the remaining budget.

We’ve heard from plenty of reliable sources (at least they’re reliable in my opinion) of the team sticking with that $227m budget (well $225m last year was approximately 97% of $LTT, and I’m using the same percentage, just with this year‘s number).

Haven’t seen RSP updated yet, but I believe O’Neill’s settlement was around $500k more than his projected arb (at least on Spotrac) which puts the Sox at $201.5m (and $25.5m below).

Adding Soler, almost by definition means Duran back to CF, another year of horrible d in LF (which is fine if the bat is good enough), but you’ve weakened your OF defense because Duran is should almost assuredly be better in LF than Yoshida or Soler AND the double edged sword is you’ve made your D worse in CF going from Rafaela to Duran.

The lineup might be a little better, but you’ve still committed to a year of DH/OF situation of let’s say Soler/Duran/O’Neill/Yoshida/Refsnyder and we again go into next year having no better idea of if Rafaela or Abreu can handle MLB pitching.

Plus, the bigger thing is, I believe @Rovin Romine was just picking a low number to make a point, but I’ll go with it. That means the payroll is $206.5m and you’ve ensured not landing Montgomery or Snell.

So, in summation, the pitching hasn’t improved, the OF defense has gotten worse, you’ve made O’Neill and Refsnyder even more redundant than they already are (and we have to pay Refsnyder, even though I agree Soler is obv a far better offensive player) and the line up is probably a bit better.

Soler only makes sense after a) the starting pitching has been addressed or b) with a trade of other OF. Otherwise, it doesn’t do nearly enough to fix the biggest problems on the team and only uses up finite resources (the $25.5m left to spend). I also would wager he’s likely to cost at least $10m per year, if not more.
Could be solved by trading Yoshida, even in a salary dump which frees up more money for pitching.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,277
The market is getting interesting. Sadly I think Texas will probably have an advantage even in a tight market for Monty but Snell might just have no other offers.
Snell supposedly just turned down 150/5. Seems like he could regret that, but Boras has a pretty high batting average with this stuff
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,326
FA Starters Remaining

Snell
Montgomery
Paxton
Ryu
Clevinger
Wood
Cueto
Lorenzen

it’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

(Kershaw and Woodruff also out there, but injured)
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,678
Kershaw’s gotta land somewhere between TEX and LAD too.

If Monty really wants to sign with the Rangers, they could offload Jon Gray or Andrew Heaney pretty easily.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,845
Honolulu HI
Yanks signed Stroman to 2 years 37M with a 3rd year option afterwards... remarkably close to Giolito's deal, whom I was comparing Stroman to in my head just now.

Would rather have Giolito's upside even with the player opt-out
Giolito's deal is only 2 years if he sucks in the first year.
As far as I'm seeing, the Yankees deal for Stroman is an actual two-year deal. Considering that I don't think the Sox will contend next year, I'd much rather have Stroman on his deal, as it would potentially mean having a decent starter in 2025 as well. If Giolito is with the Sox in 2025 it's either because he sucks in 2024, or less likely, because the Sox have signed him to a big, expensive contract after he opts out in a year to seek a better contract.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,538
Giolito's deal is only 2 years if he sucks in the first year.
As far as I'm seeing, the Yankees deal for Stroman is an actual two-year deal. Considering that I don't think the Sox will contend next year, I'd much rather have Stroman on his deal, as it would potentially mean having a decent starter in 2025 as well. If Giolito is with the Sox in 2025 it's either because he sucks in 2024, or less likely, because the Sox have signed him to a big, expensive contract after he opts out in a year to seek a better contract.
I would rather Gio. Stroman is a headcase and I highly doubt he even would come here after Cora called him out a few years ago.
After learning of recent reports indicating thatthe Yankees are frontrunners to sign the polarizing pitcher, Giannatti questioned general manager Brian Cashman’s intelligence.


“Brian Cashman would be just absolutely stupid to bring that guy here,” Gannati said on “Boomer and Gio” on Thursday, via Audacy. “He was a mess in New York. He was an absolute jerk. He was a terrible person in the clubhouse. He was part of that faction with Javy Baez doing the thumbs down. He fought with everybody. The guy is the pits. He sucks. He is sludge. He’s a slug.”
https://www.nj.com/yankees/2024/01/yankees-would-be-stupid-to-sign-pitcher-whos-an-absolute-jerk-says-ny-host.html
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,202
FA Starters Remaining

Snell
Montgomery
Paxton
Ryu
Clevinger
Wood
Cueto

it’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.
Starting the off season, I had literally zero interest in Snell. But looking at that list, and there only being one other worthwhile investment on there for the 2024-2027 Red Sox, 6/$175m for Snell almost looks reasonable.

Still prefer Monty.

Literally no interest in any of the others unless it’s following a fire sale of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta and we bring one in to replace Pivetta.

Nobody else on that list is worth starting over Crawford or Houck, and if your rotation is Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Houck and Pivetta (or any of those other 5), they’d be much better off selling now, getting the prospects, and hoping to get more prospects from other one year deals, since all iterations of rotations like that will get slaughtered in Fenway Park in the AL East.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,326
Feels like the Sox are losing ground in a division that they were already in last place in, too. How much prospect capital are you willing to give up to bolster a team that frankly isn’t likely to be a serious contender for a playoff spot in the near term? Hope to be surprised, of course, but you do have to be realistic about where the team is and I am not sure giving up long term assets for a short term gain feels great right now. To me, signing a Snell or Montgomery feels a lot more appealing than trading for a Luzardo or Cease, now.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
7,002
Salem, NH
Snell or Montgomery only ensure we’re competitive for fourth place in this division. I’m pretty much ready to throw in the towel on this season already. Certainly seems like ownership is trimming payroll to ready the team to be put up for sale sometime soon. They probably regret the Devers contract at this point.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,644
Chicago, IL
Thanks! I just found the attachment for it too.

Means $25m almost exactly, assuming the budget increase with the Lux Tax increase, which I have to assume FSG allows since they understand inflation.

So even Soler at $5m is untenable on its own if we’re going to stick with the “it’s still early” and “it’s just agents” refrain, as its nearly a certainty that none of Montgomery, Snell or probably Stroman are coming to Boston for less than $20m AAV.

(And Soler is going to get considerably more than $5m.)

On the current team with the current limit, there is literally no dollar amount at which he makes sense, absent a sizable trade in the OF (ie, moving Yoshida to clear the salary or moving Duran / Abreu / Rafaela for starting pitching - and you’re not getting much in the way of starting pitching for Duran / Abreu / Rafaela anyway, so the move almost has to be Yoshida for it to make sense).

As @scottieo2 pointed out, Soler could fit with a trade of Jansen and Martin instead of Yoshida. Which is fair. So make that “only makes sense with a trade of Yoshida OR Jansen and Martin.
They could also trade Jansen and Yoshida ...freeing up $ for Soler and Montgomery (or Snell)...I wish the team would spend more, but if they're not going over the limit, I think I'd rather have Soler and Montgomery than Jansen and Yoshida ...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.