Obviously, anything can happen, but who do we see as most vulnerable in the division? I don’t think it’s the Yankees. Rays?
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The Yankees are an injury to Judge or Cole away from trouble. No Judge in the lineup and Soto might have 175-200 walks.
It's a great way to build optimism. If the Yankees' MVP level and/or Cy Young level players miss real time, they might also stink. I approve this message.
So if Cole or Judge miss significant time then the Sox will have some competition for last? Oh goodie.
I actually think the Rays are pretty vulnerable. Pepiot was a decent add, but they had to ship a solid pitcher out to get him (I think it was a great long term move for them, though, as usual). They look okay on paper, but the way they push their pitchers it seems like they are always on the verge of losing one for a long time, and if they lose one or two this year, I am not sure they have great replacements ready to step in.
They also don't really have anyone to step into Wander's spot, though Junior Caminero was great in AA, but that's a huge jump and he struggled mightily at the MLB level, as most 19 year olds do. It's basically Arozarena and Ramirez, and hope that Josh Lowe continues his upward trajectory.
I know it's a little rose colored glasses and all, but I think the Sox are a better all around team than the Rays right now.
As for the other teams, while I still think the division is the best (maybe second best to the NL West) in baseball, they all have some warts. Toronto has great starting pitching (might be the best in the game overall), but their bullpen is kind of shallow and while their top hitters are great, the bottom half of their order leaves a lot to be desired. The Yankees lineup has similar holes, but a much higher top end, although their pitching staff is held together by Gerrit Cole and some hopes and dreams. I am very interested to see what the Orioles can coax out of their starting rotation, but their lineup is excellent and I honestly think they are in a tier slightly above the other teams.
Baltimore
Toronto
NYY
Boston
Tampa
is about how I see the division right now.
If the Sox manage to add another starting pitcher of note, I could easily see them in that second tier.
They also don't really have anyone to step into Wander's spot, though Junior Caminero was great in AA, but that's a huge jump and he struggled mightily at the MLB level, as most 19 year olds do. It's basically Arozarena and Ramirez, and hope that Josh Lowe continues his upward trajectory.
I know it's a little rose colored glasses and all, but I think the Sox are a better all around team than the Rays right now.
As for the other teams, while I still think the division is the best (maybe second best to the NL West) in baseball, they all have some warts. Toronto has great starting pitching (might be the best in the game overall), but their bullpen is kind of shallow and while their top hitters are great, the bottom half of their order leaves a lot to be desired. The Yankees lineup has similar holes, but a much higher top end, although their pitching staff is held together by Gerrit Cole and some hopes and dreams. I am very interested to see what the Orioles can coax out of their starting rotation, but their lineup is excellent and I honestly think they are in a tier slightly above the other teams.
Baltimore
Toronto
NYY
Boston
Tampa
is about how I see the division right now.
If the Sox manage to add another starting pitcher of note, I could easily see them in that second tier.
If Snell or Montgomery only ensure being competitive for fourth place next season, what exactly would the Sox have had to do this winter for you to think they could compete for a wildcard or the division? The off-season began with pretty much universal agreement that starting pitching was their biggest weakness and addressing that would go a long way toward making the team competitive again. Those are two of the consensus top three free agent starters this winter. How would signing one of them not be a significant addition/improvement?
Perhaps, but if you sign one of them to a long term contract, then they are hopefully around when this team is ready to compete in another year or two, unlike, say, Lucas Giolito.
The Rays have 2 pitchers targeted for returning in June/July I believe. When If that happens they will have two front-line pitchers to add to Efflin. I do agree though that out of the gate they might not be better than Boston.
Let’s recap: The Yankees make a five year $150 million offer to Blake Snell, who says no thank you and tells them he wants more money or an additional year. The Yankees refuse to budge and instead of increasing their offer turn around and sign Marcus Stroman to a two year $37 million deal.
I think this is actually a pretty good move for the Yankees but it’s amusing for me to imagine the reaction here if the Red Sox had made it. And I think everyone can agree that the Sox could very easily have found themselves in this *exact* situation, with precisely the same two players. If that had happened, what would we have expected the reaction here to be?
“They need a high-end starter! It’s only money and they can afford it! They always cheap out! They need steak but settled for hamburger!”
In any case, it seems likely that the Yankees are now out on Snell and Montgomery. So who do we suspect is left? The Sox, Mets, Giants, maybe the Angels? I’m sure I’m forgetting someone. I also think it would be foolish to entirely rule out the Mets going for a huge splash and signing both of them. But overall, I feel like the odds are at least a little bit better that the Sox wind up with one of them.
I think this is actually a pretty good move for the Yankees but it’s amusing for me to imagine the reaction here if the Red Sox had made it. And I think everyone can agree that the Sox could very easily have found themselves in this *exact* situation, with precisely the same two players. If that had happened, what would we have expected the reaction here to be?
“They need a high-end starter! It’s only money and they can afford it! They always cheap out! They need steak but settled for hamburger!”
In any case, it seems likely that the Yankees are now out on Snell and Montgomery. So who do we suspect is left? The Sox, Mets, Giants, maybe the Angels? I’m sure I’m forgetting someone. I also think it would be foolish to entirely rule out the Mets going for a huge splash and signing both of them. But overall, I feel like the odds are at least a little bit better that the Sox wind up with one of them.
Right now the Sox are so far behind everyone else in the division, it isn’t even funny. Now I’m optimistic about their prospects and think there’s real talent coming up through the system to be very excited about. But….boy do they need a lot of improvement still to hang with the teams at the top of this division. And if they’re not willing to get guys like Montgomery or Snell, I don’t know know at this point how they expect to improve.
Adding Soler (needed RH power) and either of the two lefties I just mentioned would be immensely helpful.
Adding Soler (needed RH power) and either of the two lefties I just mentioned would be immensely helpful.
I guess I just don't think the team is quite so bad.
I'm seeing two poor seasons*, both of them riddled poorly timed injuries, and one of them marred by exceptionally poor defense, which has largely been addressed. Our record on August 1st of 2022 was 52-52, and our record on August 1st of last year was 57-50. A lot of the August and September swoons were about playing out the string, or otherwise coping with injuries (Duran, Jansen, Turner), fatigue (Paxton, Yoshida) or injury recovery (Story, Houck, Schreiber). Verdugo was bad, and Bello got knocked around quite a bit.
I'm not trying to explain those things away, and the AL East is of course really brutal. But without further additions, I think this is more of a baseline 85-87 win team than a 75-win one. It seems enormously consequential to anticipate a plus defensive shortstop for the 2024 season. That will help the pitching staff.
*I know some people want to ding them for 2020. I'm not one of them, or at the very least, I don't think anything about 2020 is instructive going forward.
I'm seeing two poor seasons*, both of them riddled poorly timed injuries, and one of them marred by exceptionally poor defense, which has largely been addressed. Our record on August 1st of 2022 was 52-52, and our record on August 1st of last year was 57-50. A lot of the August and September swoons were about playing out the string, or otherwise coping with injuries (Duran, Jansen, Turner), fatigue (Paxton, Yoshida) or injury recovery (Story, Houck, Schreiber). Verdugo was bad, and Bello got knocked around quite a bit.
I'm not trying to explain those things away, and the AL East is of course really brutal. But without further additions, I think this is more of a baseline 85-87 win team than a 75-win one. It seems enormously consequential to anticipate a plus defensive shortstop for the 2024 season. That will help the pitching staff.
*I know some people want to ding them for 2020. I'm not one of them, or at the very least, I don't think anything about 2020 is instructive going forward.
They were 4 games over .500 going into September.... in which they went 8-19.... if they would have played .500 ball in September, this board would be very optimistic right now.
The team had 15 1+ win players last year, and has lost 4 of them (Sale, Verdugo, Paxton, Duvall), and added Giolito, Grissom, and O’Neill. I don’t really see how they’ve gotten better, personnel wise, although the hope is you avoid all the truly terrible Kluber / opener innings and that there’s growth from Bello, Whitlock, Houck, etc. Of course, there’s time to add more and they surely will. But, on paper at least, the Yankees seem vastly improved.
If it's true that Snell turned down that offer, we can rule him out. And Montgomery is represented by the same guy. Now, at some point players have to settle for a lot less than they planned, even Boras clients. So maybe the Sox could swoop in on February 20 and get a bargain. The problem is, that would still cost $$ from this year's budget. Do they keep that money aside in hope that it might happen? And if so, what happens when Anaheim and Texas cave, offer Snell/Monty a boatload on Februayy 18, and there no other FA left to spend on? Hell, we're pretty much already at that point.
There is a possibility they get one of Snell/Monty. There is a much greater possibility they don't, and "full throttle" means Adam Duvall and James Paxton.
But what if Giolito turns out to be cooked like the end of last season suggested he might be? (Yes, I know about his divorce and the suspected effect of it on his performance.)
There are some very bad potential outcomes for this 2024 Red Sox rotation.
It seems this has been the case for several years now... at least we have some younger guys and some good coaching that produces hope. If we can just get 1 of Snell or Montgomery, then make a Jansen trade for another piece or at least free up additional money for Duvall or Soler ... I thnk we will be competitive at least.
The Yankees payroll is now about $100 million higher than ours, so that has to be kept in perspective too...
I'm sorry, but what his career numbers don't serve is your argument. I mean, of course they don't serve him: they show him to be exactly who he is!
The guy had all of 353 plate appearances last year, posting his highest BABIP since a partial season in 2019, has a flat platoon split for his career. He had a really nice partial season -- driven largely, yes, by an outstanding performance at home. But I have a feeling if he'd closed out the season with us, he probably would have ended up with numbers close to his career average because that's who he is. The pull rate you note -- I'm pretty confident pitchers will see the same stuff and adjust to him.
To expect him to repeat the performance he put up last year at home after an entire career of being tragically up and down, striking out at a hysterically high rate, and rarely walking, is wishful thinking, especially at age 35. The guy is an MLB regular, absolutely, but he's an MLB regular with 11 career bWAR in 10 years. Let him go: we can replace him with someone who can actually hit. The last thing we want is bad Adam Duvall for 300 plate appearances.
Bottom line: we shouldn't weight 180 great PA or whatever at Fenway last year over 3300 career PA of mediocrity. Be happy with the performance we got for him and go get somebody who doesn't attack sliders away like a blind rat at a trash bag.
Yes, of course. That's the one that is probably most likely. Thanks for the catch.
We can't discount anything you're saying. It's all possible. But I don't understand how we're pretty much already at that point, and I don't think we should cherry pick which insiders we listen to and which we ignore. You are NOT doing that, Moondog, not directed at you at all. I'm just saying that for every Cotillo report that they're cheaping out, we have an Olney report that they're planning something big, and a Speier report that they remain engaged on the bigger FAs and may have to reallocate payroll but are not looking to cut it. So, as you point out, we shall see. But there's plenty of time still, and some decent fish that have yet to be reeled in.
Why? They are in GFIN mode. They had a need. it was only money and no prospects.
Again, I think it was a nifty move for them. But I doubt that would have been the reaction here.
I don’t know if they’ve gotten better. I think the pieces are better fits. O’Neil fits much better as a power right handed on the roster. Grissom fits well at a true black hole position. He could be as much as a 4-5 WAR upgrade given what that position was last year. And Giolito makes his starts, which is desperately needed.
On top of that, they added two legitimate optionable relief arms, which was a real position of weakness, and their top starting pitching prospect in Fitts who will be in AAA.
It’s been really nice business, but they have to add a top end arm and a bat to round out the roster. The margin moves are awesome but they need the 3-4 WAR pitcher and hitter capable of 30 bombs between Devers and Casas.
The Yankees are also facing some draft related penalties if their payroll gets much higher, so the difference between Snell's AAV and Stroman's is significant in that regard.
They're in a whole different situation from us.
I think everyone here is aware of the differences between the Red Sox and the Yankees when it comes to their current competitive windows and payroll situations.
Baltimore should have a healthy John Means this year, that could be big for them.
This isn't true, they were above the draft penalty line even before Stroman. It is $277M this year ($40M above $237M) and I think they are around $298M now with Stroman.
You've used this metric a few times lately and I'm not sure it captures talent as much as injury. The Braves also had 15 1+ win players last year. The Diamondbacks had 9 and they went to the World Series.
We can rule him out unless no one else offers the same of more. Could be that legit suitors are coming off the table and the price of poker goes down. It's unlikely but it could happen. The Dodgers seem done, there are no other teams like San Diego, Texas or the Mets of 2023, spending wildly this year.
FWIW, the Sox are down Turner 23, Duval 21, and Verdugo 13.
Fangraphs has O'Neill hitting 22. Abreu is at 14. Grissom is at 10. Meanwhile in the improvement category, Devers and Yoshida are expected to add 2, Duran 6, and Casas 5. The real jump is Story though, 4 to 21.
Some of those improvements will just be a function of more at bats, but O'Neill, Story, and Abreu are capable of basically replacing Turner and Duval.
Kershaw will fall to one of the Dodgers or Rangers.
The Rangers have a weird situation where they're built exceptionally well for late-summer and the postseason, but have a few question marks up front. A rotation of Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning and Bradford isn't very inspiring, but they'll add DeGrom, Scherzer and Mahle to that by August. Another way to look at is is that they've got $110 million AAV tied up in their rotation already, before adding Monty or Kershaw, and it's projected as the ninth-best in the American League.
And of course, the biggest upgrade on the roster will (hopefully) be Trevor Story. If he all he does is plays goo D with an OPS+ of 95, that's still a massive upgrade.
That’s true. The point was really that a lousy Sox team has actually lost some of its better players but I guess the bigger issue is that most of the Sox 1+ win players were in the 1-2 win range. The Braves had only 15 1+ win players, but 7 of them were 4+. They had 8 players worth more than the Sox best player.
Even in a best case scenario, who are the Sox 3+ win players? It’s really hard to win with a team where your best players aren’t great (although it is possible if you avoid the awful below replacement level performances).
(I think the most likely path to improvement is a return to form by Story, growth by Bello and a few of the Whitlock / Crawford / Houck group, emergence of Grissom, Duran shows last year wasn’t a fluke, etc. It’s possible….)
I've thought this too, but he supposedly did just turn down 5/150. Even if he does end up with that kind of contract, I don't think the Sox give up draft capital for what could be a one year deal.
I actually agree with this. I don't think the team - when healthy - is that terrible. But without frontline starting pitching they have no postseason hopes. With it, and I think they could contend for a wildcard spot. There is a lot of volatility with several players, especially with Yoshida, Duran, Abreu, Grissom. If three of those four have good seasons (and there is legit reasons for some optimism in each case) the line up looks pretty good, especially if they add a RHH power bat. I assume Casas takes another step forward. Devers has a little better of a season than last year. The D is improved by Story, and O'Neill getting some time.
Ideally? Sign Snell or Montgomery, trade for a cost controlled SP and sign a RHH power bat (if Soler, fine, but then maybe you gotta trade Yoshida). Maybe they will do all three of those things. If so, I think they have a very good team. Maybe they will do two, maybe one, maybe none. We will see. This organization has become an enigma.
I don't think they are that many players from playoff contention - but the players they need, need to be significant ones, ain't nothing around the edges.
Were the terms of the Snell offer reported anywhere? Genuine question, I haven't seen it but likely missed it if so.
There are tweets about them in the Yankees thread. Let me see if I can screenshot them.
Sorry, I mixed up my penalty criteria. The draft pick penalties have to do with Snell being a free agent who turned down a QO.
From MLBTR:
MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Snell, who turned 31 last month. A signing team would also forfeit draft compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. For a team that paid the luxury tax like the Yankees, that’d be their second- and fifth-highest selections next year and $1MM in international signing bonus space.
This could be BS. It does seem odd that he would turn this down this late in the game, even with the Boras factor. I haven't seen anyone confirm it.
View: https://twitter.com/mikedeportes/status/1745598534999494846?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1745624206857908578%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=
Yes. Without a 3-4 WAR starting pitcher the margin for error with the pitching staff is so small that you are basically betting on 85th percentile outcomes across the staff.
Without another bat, you are again looking for a lot of higher percentile outcomes with very little margin for error.
True. I was strongly implying that a trade of Jansen and Yoshida would also work, but you're right that I should have mentioned the third permutation as well. Conversely, a trade of Yoshida and Martin while keeping Jansen and bring in Soler and Montgomery would also work. My overall point is that if one subscribes to the integrity and capability of Speier and McCaffrey as journalists (which is totally their choice or not, and I respect that, but I do...), for Soler coming in to make any sense, someone pretty expensive needs to be going out. Or you add Soler and enter a 3rd straight season with somewhere between awful and below average starting pitching, which seems redundant and crazy, and I don't think Breslow is crazy.
I too would rather have Montgomery and Soler than any combination of Yoshida, Jansen and Martin, for the record (and I don't need Soler in there, truth be told).
This is where I've been for a long time, which is why I'm pretty upset now that all the middle tier contracts for starting pitchers (more than one year) are now off the board. You're down to Montgomery or Snell, paying through the nose in a trade, or another season of rotation suck.
Zero interest in Duvall (or Paxton) as things stand right now. Adding those kind of players doesn't make the 2024 team all that much more likely to make the playoffs AND it has the added gut punch of not doing things to move the 2026 team forward. Luckily, I don't think Breslow is going to make that same mistake. I truly believe if he can't move the 2024-2025 team forward, he's going to actually try to move the 2026+ team forward. As evidenced by the acquisitions of Grissom and Fitts.
*If Pivetta (or Houck or Crawford or Whitlock or whatever) is dealt for prospects AND now you need someone in the rotation, sure, sign anyone to a one year deal and hope for them being good enough and healthy enough to trade at the deadline for more 2025+ assets. But not otherwise.
Cut down, but this is exactly how I feel too. You're not that many pieces away from being a real contender for lets say all 3 wild card spots. But that one (or two) things that they ARE lacking are the most expensive to acquire in baseball (top half of the rotation pitching) and as an added "subtraction" there aren't any pieces in the pipeline to reasonably look at and say "those are the two top half starters to go with Bello", at least not any time in the near future.
Did Correa (in 2021 heading into 2022) have a QO attached to him? I would have to assume he did, but Minnesota made their picks in rds 1 and 2 (but not in 3 so maybe that is what they lost)? The idea of giving up a pick to sign someone with a QO attached and giving them an opt out after one year seems asinine to me, but then again, I've never argued that any team in the AL Central (Cleveland aside) is particularly good at running a baseball franchise, so I guess that would track...
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They are also down another 18 home runs from other players no longer on the team. For the amount of hitting suck the middle infield produced last year, Chang, Kike, Urias, and Arrroyo did hit 17 HRs. (Tapia had the other one)
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3
The Red Sox current projections have them in 80-84 win range with Vegas more pessimistic at 80. Picking up a Snell or Montgomery would put them around gains you about 2-3 wins in the projection which leaves you a little behind the Orioles for 5th in the division again. You wouldn't be in the WC conversation projection wise unless you grabbed another 4-5 WAR player, even there you would be on the outside looking in.
If all things were equal, you're probably right but I think that you're taking a lot of the context out of your argument. The Yankees have Cole heading up their rotation, a proven number one starter who was lights out last year and just signed Stroman. The Red Sox have Bryan Bello and a bunch of other dudes. For the Yankees, Snell is a nice-to-have. For the Sox, Snell (or Montgomery or Yamamoto) is a need. Are any of them Cole? Of course not, but they're better than what they have currently. The Sox don't seem to want to trade prospects for a top of the rotation starter. They haven't had a top of the rotation starter come through their system in over a decade. The only way that they can get a starter for next season is to throw money at them.
So the reaction, I believe, would be prudent. We need a starter. We have a shit ton of cash and financial flexibility. Why aren't we getting one? That is why you would get the frustration, annoyance, anger reaction here. Also, who gives a shit about the Yankees? The White Sox haven't bolstered their rotation either and I'm not worried about them.
It's really simple.
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